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Finaxion Research · Ichimoku: buy above the cloud · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on USD/JPY?

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on USD/JPY: -0.9 points a year over 30 years.

Total return
8.9%
Buy and hold
40.2%
CAGR
0.3%
Sharpe
-0.51
Max drawdown
-38.2%
Trades
440
Out of sample
overfit
Years
30
0.7×1×1.1×1.4×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyUSD/JPY

Findings

  1. Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on USD/JPY: -0.9 points a year over 30 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +8.9% versus +40.2% for buy-and-hold, with 440 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -38.2%.
  6. It beat before 2011 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #181 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding USD/JPY over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on USD/JPY → · Full page for Ichimoku: buy above the cloud →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on USD/JPY?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud/usdjpy

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.