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Finaxion Research · ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on ASML?

ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -23.8 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
20.1%
Buy and hold
×964
CAGR
0.6%
Sharpe
-0.41
Max drawdown
-41.1%
Trades
308
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×100×997×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyASML

Findings

  1. ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -23.8 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.4 points a year.
  3. Total return +20.1% versus ×964 for buy-and-hold, with 308 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -41.1%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #85 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact baf59d3a43e0.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: three-candle bullish gaps are detected within a 38-bar window; a return of price into the gap → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ASML over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ASML → · Full page for ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on ASML?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact baf59d3a43e0. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ict-fair-value-gap/asml

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.