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Finaxion Research · ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on CIEN?

ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on CIEN: -4.6 points a year over 30 years.

Total return
-22.8%
Buy and hold
195.6%
CAGR
-0.9%
Sharpe
-0.41
Max drawdown
-44.2%
Trades
224
Out of sample
overfit
Years
30
0.1×1×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyCIEN

Findings

  1. ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on CIEN: -4.6 points a year over 30 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.7 points a year.
  3. Total return -22.8% versus +195.6% for buy-and-hold, with 224 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -44.2%.
  6. It beat before 2011 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #98 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact baf59d3a43e0.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: three-candle bullish gaps are detected within a 38-bar window; a return of price into the gap → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding CIEN over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on CIEN → · Full page for ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on CIEN?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact baf59d3a43e0. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ict-fair-value-gap/cien

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.