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Finaxion Research · ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap · indices and ETFs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on GLD?

ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on GLD: -11.7 points a year over 22 years.

Total return
-18.4%
Buy and hold
820.3%
CAGR
-0.9%
Sharpe
-1.42
Max drawdown
-23.2%
Trades
196
Out of sample
overfit
Years
22
1×6×20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyGLD

Findings

  1. ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on GLD: -11.7 points a year over 22 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -11.9 points a year.
  3. Total return -18.4% versus +820.3% for buy-and-hold, with 196 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -23.2%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2015).
  7. It ranks #156 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact baf59d3a43e0.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: three-candle bullish gaps are detected within a 38-bar window; a return of price into the gap → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding GLD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on GLD → · Full page for ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on GLD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact baf59d3a43e0. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ict-fair-value-gap/gld

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.