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Finaxion Research · ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?

ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -16.8 points a year over 34 years.

Total return
-87.4%
Buy and hold
×32
CAGR
-6.0%
Sharpe
-0.37
Max drawdown
-89.4%
Trades
91658
Out of sample
—
Years
34
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyCartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)

Findings

  1. ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap does not beat buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -16.8 points a year over 34 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -16.8 points a year.
  3. Total return -87.4% versus ×32 for buy-and-hold, with 91658 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -89.4%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
  6. It ranks #231 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact baf59d3a43e0.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: three-candle bullish gaps are detected within a 38-bar window; a return of price into the gap → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) → · Full page for ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact baf59d3a43e0. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ict-fair-value-gap/portfolio-spx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.