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Finaxion Research · Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on EXPE?

Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) does not beat buy-and-hold on EXPE: -11.4 points a year over 21 years.

Total return
4.3%
Buy and hold
916.1%
CAGR
0.2%
Sharpe
0.02
Max drawdown
-80.5%
Trades
749
Out of sample
overfit
Years
21
1×10×20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyEXPE

Findings

  1. Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) does not beat buy-and-hold on EXPE: -11.4 points a year over 21 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +4.3% versus +916.1% for buy-and-hold, with 749 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -80.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2016).
  7. It ranks #138 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 6540eaf5c46b.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses above KAMA(10, 2, 30) → entry; close crosses below → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding EXPE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on EXPE → · Full page for Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on EXPE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 6540eaf5c46b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/kama-adaptive-average/expe

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.