Which markets does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on?

There is no asset class where Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) works consistently; it does least badly on forex pairs: 2 of 40 (5%).

Where does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) not work?

It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14.

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) hold out of sample?

Of the 11 daily markets where it beats, 3 hold out of sample (27%).

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) depend on exact parameters?

No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.

Which timeframe suits Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) best?

It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 2 of 118.

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) still work today?

It has aged: in 40 markets it beat in the first half of the history and stopped in the second; the reverse happens in only 11.

What is the best market for Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)?

Its best daily market is BTC/USD: +17.6 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years, 576 trades.

What is the worst market for Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)?

Its worst daily market is AVB: -24.1 points a year against the S&P 500.

FINAXIONResearch

Finaxion Research · Trend following · Updated 2026-09-10

Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)

Works in few markets

Its ground: forex, on daily, on a single asset — it beats in 13 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten

11 / 489

Vs. index

-12.6 pts/yr

Total return

-45.4%

Sharpe

-0.46

Max drawdown

-71.6%

Trades

1281

StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)?

There is no asset class where Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) works consistently; it does least badly on forex pairs: 2 of 40 (5%).
It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14.
Of the 11 daily markets where it beats, 3 hold out of sample (27%).
No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 2 of 118.
It has aged: in 40 markets it beat in the first half of the history and stopped in the second; the reverse happens in only 11.
Its best daily market is BTC/USD: +17.6 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years, 576 trades.
Its worst daily market is AVB: -24.1 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 6540eaf5c46b.

The promise

“KAMA adapts to volatility: buy when price crosses above it and avoid the whipsaws of ordinary averages.”

Exactly what we tested

Close crosses above KAMA(10, 2, 30) → entry; close crosses below → exit.

Why

Its ground: forex, on daily, on a single asset — it beats in 13 of 961 combinations.
Daily, it beats buy-and-hold in 11 of 489 markets: MSTR, WBD, AKAM, CIEN, ON, PSKY, RCL, SBAC, URI, GBPUSD=X, NZDUSD=X.
Indices and ETFs: 0 of 6.
Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions): 0 of 1.
Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions): 0 of 1.
Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions): 0 of 1.
Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100): 9 of 470.
Forex: 2 of 8.
Crypto: 0 of 2.
Out of sample without overfitting in 3 of the 11 markets it beats.
Neighbouring parameter sets that also beat (on the index): 0%.

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)	-45.4%	+3081.0%	-3126.4%	-12.6 pts	1281	OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)	-47.7%	+1565.8%	-1613.5%	-10.9 pts	1023	OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)	-76.7%	+801.9%	-878.6%	-14.1 pts	1054	OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)	+31.5%	+830.9%	-799.4%	-10.5 pts	851	OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)	+59.6%	+820.3%	-760.6%	-8.8 pts	742	OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)	-55.6%	+131.2%	-186.8%	-14.6 pts	861	OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)	+253.6%	+3081.0%	-2827.5%	-7.0 pts	13318	—

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)	+1439.6%	+3081.0%	-1641.4%	-2.4 pts	33490	—

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)	+81.7%	+3081.0%	-2999.3%	-9.0 pts	51917	—

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 9 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 18 / 216

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
AAPL	+1831.7%	+322813.1%	-320981.3%	before 1993	1593	OVERFIT
AMGN	+1583.0%	+187272.6%	-185689.6%	before 1993	1497	OVERFIT
AMZN	+4744.5%	+265196.1%	-260451.6%	+4.5 pts	1021	OVERFIT
AXP	-83.9%	+27029.4%	-27113.2%	before 1993	1996	OVERFIT
BA	+3399.4%	+108724.7%	-105325.3%	before 1993	2262	OVERFIT
CAT	+4380.8%	+172708.3%	-168327.5%	before 1993	2222	OVERFIT
CRM	+160.3%	+5992.9%	-5832.6%	-6.5 pts	749	OVERFIT
CSCO	+529.9%	+222956.6%	-222426.7%	before 1993	1308	OVERFIT
CVX	-58.4%	+68037.6%	-68096.0%	before 1993	2413	OVERFIT
DIS	+6617.1%	+189847.3%	-183230.2%	before 1993	2243	OVERFIT
GOOGL	+464.7%	+13534.3%	-13069.6%	-3.1 pts	773	OVERFIT
GS	+151.1%	+2027.1%	-1876.0%	-5.0 pts	954	OVERFIT
HD	+1595.0%	+1985758.9%	-1984163.9%	before 1993	1558	OVERFIT
HON	-65.1%	+21058.8%	-21123.9%	before 1993	2390	OVERFIT
IBM	+13.0%	+16203.8%	-16190.8%	before 1993	2321	OVERFIT
JNJ	+105.1%	+445196.6%	-445091.5%	before 1993	2241	OVERFIT
JPM	+38.1%	+34522.5%	-34484.4%	before 1993	1609	OVERFIT
KO	+36.8%	+199349.6%	-199312.8%	before 1993	2416	OVERFIT
MCD	+495.2%	+236707.0%	-236211.7%	before 1993	2104	OVERFIT
MMM	-55.0%	+31160.0%	-31215.0%	before 1993	2330	OVERFIT
MRK	+80.1%	+233375.1%	-233295.0%	before 1993	2267	OVERFIT
MSFT	+590.5%	+859506.0%	-858915.4%	before 1993	1481	OVERFIT
NKE	+555.4%	+32003.7%	-31448.2%	before 1993	1526	OVERFIT
NVDA	+5859.1%	+587720.8%	-581861.7%	+7.2 pts	979	OVERFIT
PG	-41.7%	+59706.6%	-59748.4%	before 1993	2346	OVERFIT
SHW	+9.3%	+231766.6%	-231757.3%	before 1993	1684	OVERFIT
TRV	+721.0%	+12287.7%	-11566.7%	before 1993	1820	MARGINAL
UNH	+267.0%	+353381.4%	-353114.4%	before 1993	1522	OVERFIT
V	-55.0%	+2961.1%	-3016.1%	-16.4 pts	719	INCONCLUSIVE
WMT	+22.6%	+915365.3%	-915342.8%	before 1993	2004	OVERFIT
ABNB	n/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE	+264.1%	+147731.1%	-147467.0%	before 1993	1417	OVERFIT
ADI	-84.1%	+81534.0%	-81618.2%	before 1993	1760	OVERFIT
ADP	-66.7%	+74205.9%	-74272.6%	before 1993	1717	OVERFIT
ADSK	+932.6%	+58084.6%	-57152.0%	before 1993	1443	OVERFIT
AEP	+120.9%	+13797.6%	-13676.7%	before 1993	2394	OVERFIT
ALAB	n/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY	+674.6%	+3338.4%	-2663.8%	-1.4 pts	789	OVERFIT
AMAT	+288.9%	+664974.8%	-664686.0%	before 1993	1666	OVERFIT
AMD	+595.2%	+14863.3%	-14268.1%	before 1993	1624	MARGINAL
APP	n/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARM	n/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML	+33.8%	+96277.5%	-96243.7%	-10.1 pts	1120	OVERFIT
AVGO	+235.8%	+32512.1%	-32276.2%	-7.3 pts	643	INCONCLUSIVE
AXON	+28328.1%	+123065.2%	-94737.1%	+15.7 pts	849	MARGINAL
BKNG	-20.0%	+922.2%	-942.2%	-9.4 pts	994	OVERFIT
BKR	-89.3%	+933.9%	-1023.1%	before 1993	1418	OVERFIT
CCEP	-19.0%	+7081.8%	-7100.8%	before 1993	1491	OVERFIT
CDNS	-53.3%	+16839.0%	-16892.3%	before 1993	1435	OVERFIT
CEG	n/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA	-38.7%	+47049.9%	-47088.6%	before 1993	1743	OVERFIT
COST	+23.0%	+12800.7%	-12777.8%	before 1993	1512	OVERFIT
CPRT	+969.5%	+21554.9%	-20585.5%	-3.3 pts	1177	OVERFIT
CRWD	n/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX	-88.3%	+40426.1%	-40514.4%	before 1993	1717	OVERFIT
CTAS	+534.0%	+123411.3%	-122877.3%	before 1993	1559	OVERFIT
DASH	n/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOG	n/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM	+2424.2%	+3002.6%	-578.4%	+5.1 pts	751	MARGINAL
EA	n/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC	-18.0%	+17730.6%	-17748.5%	before 1993	2036	OVERFIT
FANG	+36.9%	+1406.8%	-1369.9%	-12.5 pts	518	INCONCLUSIVE
FAST	+2340.3%	+262350.7%	-260010.3%	before 1993	1386	OVERFIT
FER	+36.4%	+593.7%	-557.2%	-12.6 pts	234	INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT	+64.7%	+10184.6%	-10119.9%	-11.2 pts	621	INCONCLUSIVE
GEHC	n/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD	+29.1%	+33594.8%	-33565.7%	before 1993	1267	OVERFIT
HONA	n/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX	+636.1%	+58789.5%	-58153.4%	before 1993	1268	OVERFIT
INTC	-42.3%	+49216.9%	-49259.1%	before 1993	1678	OVERFIT
INTU	-1.7%	+15430.2%	-15431.8%	-10.8 pts	1263	OVERFIT
ISRG	+630.2%	+18484.9%	-17854.7%	-0.5 pts	918	MARGINAL
KDP	+184.4%	+1090.2%	-905.8%	-5.9 pts	621	INCONCLUSIVE
KHC	-56.7%	-42.2%	-14.5%	-21.6 pts	365	INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC	-58.3%	+289399.1%	-289457.4%	before 1993	1770	OVERFIT
LIN	-71.3%	+10777.0%	-10848.3%	before 1993	1284	OVERFIT
LITE	+654.3%	+5280.9%	-4626.6%	+5.8 pts	379	INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX	-68.4%	+159814.6%	-159883.0%	before 1993	1624	OVERFIT
MAR	+26.3%	+2539.5%	-2513.2%	-8.1 pts	1016	OVERFIT
MCHP	-77.2%	+41961.5%	-42038.7%	-15.1 pts	1226	OVERFIT
MDLZ	-60.8%	+461.4%	-522.2%	-13.1 pts	984	OVERFIT
MELI	+533.8%	+6911.0%	-6377.3%	-1.0 pts	663	INCONCLUSIVE
META	-62.8%	+1410.2%	-1473.1%	-21.9 pts	563	INCONCLUSIVE
MNST	+671.8%	+61968.9%	-61297.1%	before 1993	1346	MARGINAL
MPWR	+526.0%	+15002.1%	-14476.1%	-2.2 pts	732	OVERFIT
MRVL	+124.0%	+1645.0%	-1521.1%	-5.3 pts	958	OVERFIT
MSTR	+14596.0%	+1158.6%	+13437.4%	+10.4 pts	989	OVERFIT
MU	+816.2%	+70877.8%	-70061.6%	before 1993	1508	MARGINAL
NFLX	+1451.9%	+67643.2%	-66191.3%	+1.7 pts	815	GENERALIZED
NXPI	+34.4%	+1721.2%	-1686.8%	-12.8 pts	586	INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL	-97.5%	+36444.7%	-36542.2%	before 1993	1428	OVERFIT
ORLY	+498.4%	+55255.7%	-54757.3%	-5.4 pts	1234	OVERFIT
PANW	+375.7%	+4215.4%	-3839.7%	-3.3 pts	469	INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR	+322.0%	+57106.4%	-56784.4%	before 1993	1674	MARGINAL
PDD	n/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP	-78.8%	+37760.7%	-37839.5%	before 1993	1965	OVERFIT
PLTR	n/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL	-50.3%	+44.7%	-95.0%	-20.4 pts	382	INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM	-19.0%	+50430.1%	-50449.1%	before 1993	1291	OVERFIT
REGN	-62.6%	+3718.3%	-3780.9%	before 1993	1340	OVERFIT
ROP	+143.8%	+26003.6%	-25859.8%	before 1993	1271	OVERFIT
ROST	+595.6%	+55801.1%	-55205.6%	before 1993	1440	MARGINAL
SBUX	+97.3%	+43019.5%	-42922.2%	before 1993	1181	MARGINAL
SHOP	+234.1%	+8568.8%	-8334.7%	-2.6 pts	393	INCONCLUSIVE
SNDK	n/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS	-93.3%	+5482.1%	-5575.4%	before 1993	1299	OVERFIT
STX	+7524.3%	+15614.6%	-8090.3%	+8.7 pts	818	OVERFIT
TER	+1446.9%	+31309.8%	-29862.9%	before 1993	1846	MARGINAL
TMUS	-34.8%	+318.0%	-352.7%	-13.1 pts	725	INCONCLUSIVE
TRI	-12.9%	+578.4%	-591.4%	-11.2 pts	897	OVERFIT
TSLA	+5036.2%	+23002.8%	-17966.5%	+12.5 pts	539	INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO	-23.4%	+5509.7%	-5533.1%	-11.0 pts	1086	OVERFIT
TXN	-62.5%	+38040.6%	-38103.1%	before 1993	1942	OVERFIT
VRTX	+59.2%	+12000.4%	-11941.2%	before 1993	1353	MARGINAL
WBD	+335.0%	+302.2%	+32.8%	-3.9 pts	757	MARGINAL
WDAY	-25.8%	+305.5%	-331.3%	-16.9 pts	515	INCONCLUSIVE
WDC	+3409.8%	+66202.2%	-62792.4%	before 1993	1676	MARGINAL
XEL	+71.8%	+7388.9%	-7317.1%	before 1993	1984	OVERFIT
A	+211.6%	+486.3%	-274.7%	-4.0 pts	925	MARGINAL
ABBV	+92.5%	+1156.0%	-1063.5%	-9.9 pts	478	INCONCLUSIVE
ABT	-65.7%	+62056.2%	-62121.8%	before 1993	1682	OVERFIT
ACGL	-78.1%	+4268.0%	-4346.2%	-15.3 pts	1194	OVERFIT
ACN	+105.8%	+1726.5%	-1620.7%	-6.6 pts	861	OVERFIT
ADM	-91.4%	+9265.6%	-9357.1%	before 1993	1716	OVERFIT
AEE	+7.9%	+813.9%	-806.0%	-9.0 pts	1032	OVERFIT
AES	-11.6%	+647.5%	-659.1%	before 1993	1321	OVERFIT
AFL	-40.0%	+205848.4%	-205888.4%	before 1993	1780	OVERFIT
AIG	-25.3%	+468.3%	-493.6%	before 1993	1847	OVERFIT
AIZ	+39.7%	+1585.5%	-1545.8%	-9.4 pts	795	OVERFIT
AJG	+2756.3%	+41899.5%	-39143.2%	before 1993	1415	OVERFIT
AKAM	-14.9%	-25.2%	+10.3%	-9.1 pts	910	OVERFIT
ALB	-68.2%	+3091.3%	-3159.6%	-14.4 pts	1181	OVERFIT
ALGN	+15.2%	+846.9%	-831.7%	-8.3 pts	892	OVERFIT
ALL	-84.3%	+3674.2%	-3758.5%	-16.3 pts	1294	OVERFIT
ALLE	+36.2%	+265.9%	-229.7%	-11.5 pts	442	INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR	-52.9%	+100.6%	-153.5%	-20.2 pts	383	INCONCLUSIVE
AME	-81.3%	+25325.0%	-25406.3%	before 1993	1640	OVERFIT
AMP	+32.9%	+2154.1%	-2121.2%	-9.8 pts	756	OVERFIT
AMT	+129.8%	+1310.2%	-1180.4%	-6.1 pts	1021	OVERFIT
ANET	+1.2%	+5592.8%	-5591.6%	-13.6 pts	415	INCONCLUSIVE
AON	+199.4%	+29815.0%	-29615.6%	before 1993	1700	OVERFIT
AOS	+3750.3%	+13924.9%	-10174.6%	before 1993	1477	OVERFIT
APA	-98.9%	+2417.2%	-2516.1%	before 1993	1811	OVERFIT
APD	-55.2%	+20722.2%	-20777.4%	before 1993	1689	OVERFIT
APH	+135.8%	+146951.6%	-146815.8%	before 1993	1224	MARGINAL
APO	+98.7%	+1845.9%	-1747.1%	-9.4 pts	583	INCONCLUSIVE
APTV	-19.0%	+174.0%	-193.0%	-16.7 pts	518	INCONCLUSIVE
ARE	-39.9%	+624.3%	-664.2%	-11.4 pts	1081	OVERFIT
ARES	+251.4%	+1191.9%	-940.5%	-3.2 pts	417	INCONCLUSIVE
ATO	-55.4%	+13696.4%	-13751.8%	before 1993	1637	OVERFIT
AVB	-60.4%	+42.3%	-102.7%	-24.1 pts	408	INCONCLUSIVE
AVY	-85.6%	+8544.4%	-8630.0%	before 1993	1933	OVERFIT
AWK	-30.8%	+950.9%	-981.7%	-13.8 pts	701	INCONCLUSIVE
AZO	+211.0%	+40631.8%	-40420.8%	before 1993	1254	OVERFIT
BAC	+277.0%	+4053.1%	-3776.1%	before 1993	1872	OVERFIT
BALL	+534.8%	+49568.6%	-49033.7%	before 1993	1877	OVERFIT
BAX	-97.8%	+1778.4%	-1876.2%	before 1993	1686	OVERFIT
BBY	+1856.3%	+89506.6%	-87650.3%	before 1993	1482	OVERFIT
BDX	-86.7%	+21440.4%	-21527.0%	before 1993	2015	OVERFIT
BEN	+739.4%	+130378.8%	-129639.3%	before 1993	1539	OVERFIT
BF-B	+110.5%	+14873.5%	-14763.0%	before 1993	1658	OVERFIT
BG	+10.1%	+1105.5%	-1095.5%	-9.2 pts	898	OVERFIT
BIIB	-4.6%	+6832.8%	-6837.4%	before 1993	1275	OVERFIT
BLDR	-78.5%	+393.7%	-472.2%	-18.2 pts	816	OVERFIT
BLK	+22.0%	+13724.5%	-13702.5%	-8.0 pts	1019	OVERFIT
BMY	-12.4%	+23662.6%	-23675.0%	before 1993	1911	OVERFIT
BNY	-50.9%	+32230.3%	-32281.3%	before 1993	1867	OVERFIT
BR	+157.9%	+1234.2%	-1076.4%	-6.0 pts	627	INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B	-39.3%	+2072.5%	-2111.8%	-12.0 pts	1108	OVERFIT
BRO	+659.5%	+76212.8%	-75553.3%	before 1993	1529	OVERFIT
BSX	-68.2%	+1028.2%	-1096.4%	before 1993	1202	OVERFIT
BX	+99.8%	+1023.3%	-923.6%	-7.2 pts	687	INCONCLUSIVE
BXP	-45.2%	+888.9%	-934.1%	-11.6 pts	1005	OVERFIT
C	-52.2%	+1897.9%	-1950.2%	before 1993	1800	OVERFIT
CAH	+1193.4%	+39284.8%	-38091.4%	before 1993	1515	OVERFIT
CARR	n/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY	+121.0%	+80461.2%	-80340.2%	before 1993	1580	OVERFIT
CB	+61.8%	+6587.6%	-6525.8%	-9.3 pts	1244	OVERFIT
CBOE	+80.8%	+1060.1%	-979.3%	-10.9 pts	589	INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE	+13.2%	+2283.8%	-2270.6%	-10.4 pts	783	OVERFIT
CCI	+278.7%	+899.9%	-621.2%	-4.2 pts	1026	OVERFIT
CCL	-34.3%	+1154.4%	-1188.7%	before 1993	1380	OVERFIT
CDW	+76.3%	+858.2%	-781.9%	-10.1 pts	471	INCONCLUSIVE
CF	+144.6%	+5815.9%	-5671.3%	-6.7 pts	735	OVERFIT
CFG	-8.5%	+349.9%	-358.4%	-14.5 pts	428	INCONCLUSIVE
CHD	+171.2%	+93736.5%	-93565.3%	before 1993	1645	OVERFIT
CHRW	-55.7%	+4307.6%	-4363.3%	-12.1 pts	1065	OVERFIT
CHTR	+21.5%	+335.5%	-314.1%	-13.0 pts	592	INCONCLUSIVE
CI	+879.5%	+12980.8%	-12101.4%	before 1993	1514	OVERFIT
CIEN	+607.8%	+195.6%	+412.2%	-3.0 pts	982	OVERFIT
CINF	+1357.1%	+41545.9%	-40188.8%	before 1993	1651	OVERFIT
CL	-83.0%	+20919.0%	-21002.0%	before 1993	1922	OVERFIT
CLX	-69.3%	+6184.2%	-6253.4%	before 1993	1910	OVERFIT
CME	+239.9%	+6884.2%	-6644.3%	-6.1 pts	857	OVERFIT
CMG	+768.2%	+4221.6%	-3453.4%	-0.0 pts	687	MARGINAL
CMI	+2597.9%	+28968.2%	-26370.4%	before 1993	1912	OVERFIT
CMS	+492.6%	+630.8%	-138.2%	before 1993	1898	OVERFIT
CNC	-31.6%	+4388.8%	-4420.4%	-11.6 pts	891	OVERFIT
CNP	+201.7%	+13998.0%	-13796.3%	before 1993	2354	OVERFIT
COF	-13.5%	+5724.6%	-5738.0%	-11.6 pts	1128	OVERFIT
COHR	+77.0%	+68288.9%	-68212.0%	before 1993	1492	OVERFIT
COIN	n/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO	+276.5%	+879.8%	-603.3%	before 1993	1512	OVERFIT
COP	-21.2%	+13561.7%	-13582.9%	before 1993	1616	OVERFIT
COR	+1421.4%	+17062.1%	-15640.6%	-1.9 pts	1097	OVERFIT
CPAY	+23.2%	+1383.7%	-1360.5%	-13.0 pts	557	INCONCLUSIVE
CPT	+7.9%	+2453.9%	-2446.1%	-10.7 pts	1222	OVERFIT
CRH	-86.4%	+7617.9%	-7704.3%	before 1993	1284	OVERFIT
CRL	-6.8%	+1210.2%	-1216.9%	-8.8 pts	889	OVERFIT
CSGP	+1112.8%	+3390.6%	-2277.8%	+0.4 pts	1059	OVERFIT
CTSH	+93.6%	+35498.3%	-35404.7%	-6.6 pts	1047	OVERFIT
CTVA	n/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNA	n/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS	-42.3%	+15658.6%	-15701.0%	before 1993	1918	OVERFIT
D	+237.1%	+17762.4%	-17525.3%	before 1993	1626	OVERFIT
DAL	+26.6%	+339.1%	-312.5%	-9.6 pts	674	INCONCLUSIVE
DD	-63.4%	+10113.6%	-10177.0%	before 1993	1964	OVERFIT
DE	-58.2%	+101089.1%	-101147.2%	before 1993	1965	OVERFIT
DECK	-81.0%	+7024.7%	-7105.8%	-15.7 pts	1290	OVERFIT
DELL	+970.2%	+4059.8%	-3089.5%	+11.6 pts	331	INCONCLUSIVE
DG	+5.6%	+550.3%	-544.6%	-14.0 pts	583	INCONCLUSIVE
DGX	+204.1%	+9626.0%	-9421.9%	-6.3 pts	1029	OVERFIT
DHI	-69.7%	+13111.0%	-13180.7%	before 1993	1324	OVERFIT
DHR	-84.9%	+483557.2%	-483642.2%	before 1993	1837	OVERFIT
DLR	-18.8%	+3540.7%	-3559.6%	-12.1 pts	793	OVERFIT
DLTR	+1040.6%	+10731.5%	-9690.9%	-3.0 pts	1038	OVERFIT
DOC	-72.4%	+6136.8%	-6209.3%	before 1993	1560	OVERFIT
DOV	+665.3%	+29264.8%	-28599.5%	before 1993	1594	MARGINAL
DOW	n/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ	+77.9%	+5638.6%	-5560.7%	-8.5 pts	780	OVERFIT
DRI	-30.5%	+6998.7%	-7029.2%	-12.0 pts	1168	OVERFIT
DTE	-27.4%	+35264.3%	-35291.7%	before 1993	2480	OVERFIT
DUK	+200.6%	+16239.0%	-16038.5%	before 1993	1638	OVERFIT
DVA	+83.2%	+4219.3%	-4136.1%	-8.6 pts	1120	OVERFIT
DVN	+12.3%	+1411.9%	-1399.6%	before 1993	1494	OVERFIT
EBAY	+740.5%	+14035.1%	-13294.6%	-1.3 pts	992	MARGINAL
ECHO	+40.8%	+227.3%	-186.5%	-9.5 pts	638	INCONCLUSIVE
ECL	-51.8%	+20174.1%	-20225.9%	before 1993	1969	OVERFIT
ED	+958.7%	+45081.6%	-44122.9%	before 1993	2320	OVERFIT
EFX	+512.5%	+77234.4%	-76721.8%	before 1993	1665	OVERFIT
EG	-18.0%	+2975.7%	-2993.7%	-11.2 pts	1125	OVERFIT
EIX	+57.4%	+14610.5%	-14553.2%	before 1993	1919	OVERFIT
EL	-15.2%	+1551.3%	-1566.6%	-11.1 pts	1069	OVERFIT
ELV	+66.5%	+2326.9%	-2260.3%	-8.2 pts	919	OVERFIT
EME	+1365.1%	+59203.5%	-57838.4%	-2.3 pts	1126	OVERFIT
EMR	-78.0%	+19839.1%	-19917.1%	before 1993	2047	OVERFIT
EOG	-51.4%	+9279.7%	-9331.1%	before 1993	1398	OVERFIT
EQIX	+207.2%	+240.5%	-33.3%	-4.0 pts	913	OVERFIT
EQR	-36.9%	+44.2%	-81.1%	-19.7 pts	362	INCONCLUSIVE
EQT	+1036.0%	+19557.1%	-18521.2%	before 1993	1641	OVERFIT
ERIE	+66.6%	+3362.8%	-3296.2%	-8.9 pts	1193	OVERFIT
ES	-77.5%	+2960.1%	-3037.5%	before 1993	1984	OVERFIT
ESS	-27.2%	+5274.8%	-5302.0%	-12.0 pts	1214	OVERFIT
ETN	+3375.2%	+116541.5%	-113166.3%	before 1993	1858	MARGINAL
ETR	+33.7%	+19797.9%	-19764.2%	before 1993	1992	OVERFIT
EVRG	-44.4%	+5086.7%	-5131.1%	before 1993	1974	OVERFIT
EW	+163.5%	+6500.0%	-6336.5%	-4.5 pts	922	OVERFIT
EXE	n/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD	+92.2%	+148324.6%	-148232.4%	before 1993	1623	OVERFIT
EXPE	+4.3%	+916.1%	-911.8%	-10.9 pts	749	OVERFIT
EXR	+176.6%	+2698.9%	-2522.3%	-6.6 pts	772	OVERFIT
F	+13.8%	+6752.4%	-6738.6%	before 1993	1972	OVERFIT
FCX	+10.2%	+1061.6%	-1051.4%	-10.4 pts	1153	OVERFIT
FDS	+2365.2%	+9088.9%	-6723.7%	+0.9 pts	999	OVERFIT
FDX	+843.0%	+53776.9%	-52933.9%	before 1993	1689	OVERFIT
FDXF	n/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE	-58.5%	+563.0%	-621.6%	-12.5 pts	1046	OVERFIT
FFIV	+732.4%	+5374.0%	-4641.6%	-0.4 pts	913	MARGINAL
FICO	+75.4%	+94747.8%	-94672.4%	before 1993	1423	OVERFIT
FIS	-68.9%	+363.8%	-432.6%	-14.0 pts	916	OVERFIT
FITB	+1634.3%	+28280.0%	-26645.7%	before 1993	1600	OVERFIT
FIX	+54.0%	+11966.2%	-11912.2%	-8.0 pts	1052	OVERFIT
FLEX	+118.1%	+7898.6%	-7780.5%	-8.5 pts	1192	OVERFIT
FOX	n/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXA	n/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT	-70.2%	+24360.2%	-24430.5%	before 1993	2024	OVERFIT
FSLR	-64.0%	+716.1%	-780.1%	-16.0 pts	746	OVERFIT
FTV	-16.2%	+100.1%	-116.4%	-17.2 pts	372	INCONCLUSIVE
GD	+2088.8%	+221689.9%	-219601.0%	before 1993	2306	OVERFIT
GDDY	-41.7%	+389.4%	-431.1%	-18.7 pts	419	INCONCLUSIVE
GE	+15.5%	+54356.2%	-54340.8%	before 1993	2314	OVERFIT
GEN	+202.6%	+12085.6%	-11883.0%	before 1993	1269	OVERFIT
GEV	n/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS	-62.6%	+15015.5%	-15078.2%	before 1993	1689	OVERFIT
GL	+379.3%	+12680.6%	-12301.2%	before 1993	1644	OVERFIT
GLW	+664.9%	+19301.2%	-18636.3%	before 1993	1542	OVERFIT
GM	+7.4%	+240.1%	-232.7%	-14.0 pts	563	INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC	+103.7%	+2091.1%	-1987.4%	-10.2 pts	590	INCONCLUSIVE
GPC	-82.1%	+12785.5%	-12867.7%	before 1993	1773	OVERFIT
GPN	-15.6%	+2567.9%	-2583.5%	-9.7 pts	891	OVERFIT
GRMN	+138.1%	+5377.3%	-5239.3%	-5.5 pts	878	OVERFIT
GWW	+274.2%	+55300.2%	-55026.0%	before 1993	1983	OVERFIT
HAL	+47.4%	+2860.8%	-2813.3%	before 1993	1887	OVERFIT
HAS	+610.5%	+201529.8%	-200919.2%	before 1993	1681	OVERFIT
HBAN	-75.0%	+3799.5%	-3874.5%	before 1993	1694	OVERFIT
HCA	+120.4%	+1699.7%	-1579.3%	-8.9 pts	509	INCONCLUSIVE
HIG	-3.0%	+951.1%	-954.1%	-10.5 pts	1146	OVERFIT
HII	+276.9%	+883.6%	-606.8%	-5.2 pts	532	INCONCLUSIVE
HLT	+28.3%	+659.1%	-630.9%	-12.1 pts	468	INCONCLUSIVE
HOOD	n/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE	+170.0%	+625.0%	-455.1%	-5.3 pts	382	INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ	-3.7%	+77945.5%	-77949.2%	before 1993	2339	OVERFIT
HRL	-15.3%	+19046.1%	-19061.4%	before 1993	1664	OVERFIT
HSIC	-2.4%	+1913.1%	-1915.4%	-10.6 pts	1223	OVERFIT
HST	+89.1%	+12843.9%	-12754.7%	before 1993	1666	OVERFIT
HSY	-35.4%	+53964.6%	-54000.0%	before 1993	1724	OVERFIT
HUBB	+10.4%	+3853.5%	-3843.1%	-10.8 pts	1158	OVERFIT
HUM	+553.2%	+20168.9%	-19615.7%	before 1993	1561	OVERFIT
HWM	n/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR	+2.3%	+1526.1%	-1523.8%	-10.7 pts	723	INCONCLUSIVE
ICE	-23.4%	+2307.9%	-2331.3%	-12.5 pts	803	OVERFIT
IEX	+103.7%	+12761.2%	-12657.5%	before 1993	1355	OVERFIT
IFF	-92.4%	+4754.9%	-4847.4%	before 1993	1919	OVERFIT
INCY	+1087.3%	+6471.7%	-5384.4%	-3.1 pts	1185	OVERFIT
INVH	n/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP	-78.4%	+4590.1%	-4668.6%	before 1993	2368	OVERFIT
IQV	-36.6%	+520.3%	-556.9%	-17.6 pts	497	INCONCLUSIVE
IR	n/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM	+532.8%	+9911.6%	-9378.7%	-4.1 pts	1102	OVERFIT
IT	+257.2%	+6431.0%	-6173.8%	-6.9 pts	1199	OVERFIT
ITW	+363.8%	+51254.1%	-50890.3%	before 1993	1994	OVERFIT
IVZ	-6.9%	+1093.8%	-1100.7%	-10.9 pts	1089	OVERFIT
J	+1243.4%	+33544.7%	-32301.3%	before 1993	1615	MARGINAL
JBHT	+957.0%	+24926.6%	-23969.6%	before 1993	1522	OVERFIT
JBL	+1169.5%	+41217.7%	-40048.2%	-3.0 pts	1210	MARGINAL
JCI	-57.6%	+4376.5%	-4434.1%	before 1993	1504	OVERFIT
JKHY	+16.3%	+71288.2%	-71271.9%	before 1993	1497	OVERFIT
KEY	-98.7%	+1405.6%	-1504.3%	before 1993	1546	OVERFIT
KEYS	+42.0%	+1042.3%	-1000.3%	-11.3 pts	414	INCONCLUSIVE
KIM	+63.5%	+3036.5%	-2973.0%	before 1993	1188	OVERFIT
KKR	-22.4%	+1784.9%	-1807.3%	-16.4 pts	615	INCONCLUSIVE
KMB	-11.2%	+16039.9%	-16051.1%	before 1993	1614	OVERFIT
KMI	+15.4%	+117.5%	-102.1%	-13.0 pts	546	INCONCLUSIVE
KR	+160.1%	+182706.1%	-182545.9%	before 1993	2298	OVERFIT
KVUE	n/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L	+699.8%	+22398.8%	-21699.0%	before 1993	1602	MARGINAL
LDOS	+19.3%	+530.2%	-510.9%	-10.2 pts	720	OVERFIT
LEN	-36.8%	+29032.9%	-29069.8%	before 1993	1718	OVERFIT
LH	-70.0%	+1408.2%	-1478.2%	before 1993	1355	OVERFIT
LHX	+4.6%	+8519.5%	-8514.9%	before 1993	1576	OVERFIT
LII	-65.7%	+3122.4%	-3188.2%	-12.4 pts	1018	OVERFIT
LLY	+115.8%	+129720.0%	-129604.2%	before 1993	1906	OVERFIT
LMT	-50.4%	+67444.7%	-67495.1%	before 1993	2400	OVERFIT
LNT	+21.2%	+9408.5%	-9387.2%	before 1993	1956	OVERFIT
LOW	+4407.4%	+77328.4%	-72921.0%	before 1993	1572	OVERFIT
LULU	+89.9%	+759.0%	-669.1%	-7.7 pts	710	INCONCLUSIVE
LUV	+476.9%	+24508.5%	-24031.7%	before 1993	1632	OVERFIT
LVS	+23.5%	+50.3%	-26.8%	-9.9 pts	774	OVERFIT
LYB	-1.7%	+648.8%	-650.6%	-14.2 pts	584	INCONCLUSIVE
LYV	+229.0%	+1558.0%	-1328.9%	-5.2 pts	732	OVERFIT
MA	+53.4%	+14066.9%	-14013.5%	-9.1 pts	759	OVERFIT
MAA	-65.6%	+3525.2%	-3590.8%	-14.1 pts	1230	OVERFIT
MAS	+340.9%	+7423.1%	-7082.2%	before 1993	1626	OVERFIT
MCK	-4.3%	+6946.5%	-6950.8%	-11.3 pts	1185	OVERFIT
MCO	-19.5%	+7753.9%	-7773.5%	-11.7 pts	1211	OVERFIT
MDT	+92.5%	+51421.0%	-51328.5%	before 1993	1840	OVERFIT
MET	-60.2%	+1176.9%	-1237.1%	-11.7 pts	941	OVERFIT
MGM	+518.3%	+1501.4%	-983.1%	before 1993	1294	MARGINAL
MKC	+248.6%	+14401.8%	-14153.3%	before 1993	1933	OVERFIT
MLM	-10.8%	+3089.6%	-3100.4%	-11.2 pts	1172	OVERFIT
MO	+2548.7%	+2914781.4%	-2912232.7%	before 1993	2165	OVERFIT
MOS	+55.1%	+268.9%	-213.8%	before 1993	1337	OVERFIT
MPC	+959.8%	+2972.8%	-2012.9%	+2.3 pts	511	INCONCLUSIVE
MRNA	n/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH	+235.7%	+21192.9%	-20957.2%	before 1993	1967	OVERFIT
MS	-31.8%	+6159.1%	-6190.9%	-12.0 pts	1155	OVERFIT
MSCI	-50.9%	+2406.7%	-2457.6%	-15.0 pts	738	INCONCLUSIVE
MSI	+148.8%	+79243.2%	-79094.4%	before 1993	2247	OVERFIT
MTB	+881.1%	+105049.8%	-104168.8%	before 1993	1652	OVERFIT
MTD	+97.3%	+9346.3%	-9249.0%	-7.1 pts	1009	OVERFIT
NCLH	-62.9%	-34.9%	-28.0%	-21.8 pts	480	INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ	+48.3%	+2371.2%	-2322.9%	-9.3 pts	875	OVERFIT
NDSN	+376.3%	+37769.3%	-37393.0%	before 1993	1695	OVERFIT
NEE	+531.5%	+23772.9%	-23241.4%	before 1993	1972	OVERFIT
NEM	-86.1%	+2099.8%	-2185.9%	before 1993	1705	OVERFIT
NI	-74.6%	+5234.9%	-5309.4%	before 1993	2026	OVERFIT
NOC	+957.8%	+23369.3%	-22411.5%	before 1993	1567	OVERFIT
NOW	-6.5%	+2907.9%	-2914.4%	-15.4 pts	545	INCONCLUSIVE
NRG	+65.9%	+1442.6%	-1376.6%	-8.8 pts	862	OVERFIT
NSC	-35.6%	+24520.7%	-24556.3%	before 1993	1653	OVERFIT
NTAP	+532.7%	+19659.8%	-19127.0%	-4.3 pts	1146	MARGINAL
NTRS	+868.7%	+53074.8%	-52206.1%	before 1993	1590	OVERFIT
NUE	+715.9%	+70209.1%	-69493.1%	before 1993	1608	OVERFIT
NVR	+1901.2%	+61512.0%	-59610.8%	-1.3 pts	1157	OVERFIT
NWS	+9.7%	+152.4%	-142.7%	-13.7 pts	473	INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA	-18.6%	+122.2%	-140.9%	-15.9 pts	497	INCONCLUSIVE
O	+18.8%	+5366.4%	-5347.7%	-10.5 pts	1098	OVERFIT
OKE	+572.2%	+19101.6%	-18529.4%	before 1993	1623	OVERFIT
OMC	+194.2%	+15677.5%	-15483.3%	before 1993	1679	OVERFIT
ON	+468.6%	+208.7%	+259.9%	-1.6 pts	944	OVERFIT
ORCL	-48.7%	+296729.4%	-296778.2%	before 1993	1589	OVERFIT
OTIS	n/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY	-85.1%	+3580.0%	-3665.1%	before 1993	1655	OVERFIT
PCG	-84.6%	+1389.7%	-1474.3%	before 1993	2048	OVERFIT
PEG	+38.2%	+18884.4%	-18846.2%	before 1993	1796	OVERFIT
PFE	-84.7%	+20062.7%	-20147.3%	before 1993	1953	OVERFIT
PFG	-82.8%	+920.1%	-1002.9%	-17.0 pts	954	OVERFIT
PGR	+28460.1%	+819581.9%	-791121.8%	before 1993	1553	OVERFIT
PH	+2438.1%	+41129.4%	-38691.4%	before 1993	1592	OVERFIT
PHM	+382.3%	+95847.7%	-95465.4%	before 1993	1648	OVERFIT
PLD	-37.6%	+1782.5%	-1820.1%	-10.9 pts	988	OVERFIT
PM	+132.9%	+785.7%	-652.8%	-7.5 pts	641	INCONCLUSIVE
PNC	+225.7%	+37937.9%	-37712.1%	before 1993	1780	OVERFIT
PNR	+1522.0%	+11510.8%	-9988.9%	before 1993	1760	OVERFIT
PNW	+37.3%	+2247.6%	-2210.3%	before 1993	1952	OVERFIT
PODD	+18.9%	+831.5%	-812.6%	-9.9 pts	684	INCONCLUSIVE
PPG	+245.3%	+21327.4%	-21082.1%	before 1993	1612	MARGINAL
PPL	+382.8%	+7311.8%	-6929.1%	before 1993	1684	OVERFIT
PRU	-41.2%	+767.8%	-809.0%	-12.2 pts	915	OVERFIT
PSA	-77.9%	+13958.7%	-14036.6%	before 1993	1744	OVERFIT
PSKY	+60.1%	-34.8%	+94.9%	-8.8 pts	745	OVERFIT
PSX	+589.0%	+1071.7%	-482.7%	-0.2 pts	495	INCONCLUSIVE
PTC	-85.7%	+8443.5%	-8529.1%	before 1993	1373	OVERFIT
PWR	+65.3%	+8155.1%	-8089.8%	-7.4 pts	1066	OVERFIT
Q	n/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL	+4735.6%	+4611.6%	+124.0%	+1.4 pts	1080	MARGINAL
REG	-22.4%	+2046.5%	-2068.9%	-11.6 pts	1240	OVERFIT
RF	+18.0%	+7230.0%	-7212.0%	before 1993	1626	OVERFIT
RJF	+391.7%	+52691.1%	-52299.4%	before 1993	1554	OVERFIT
RL	-80.0%	+1376.9%	-1456.9%	-14.9 pts	1082	OVERFIT
RMD	+605.0%	+43254.4%	-42649.3%	-4.3 pts	1101	OVERFIT
ROK	+215.1%	+57325.7%	-57110.6%	before 1993	1636	OVERFIT
ROL	-90.6%	+36503.9%	-36594.5%	before 1993	1746	OVERFIT
RSG	-54.8%	+1977.7%	-2032.5%	-11.6 pts	983	OVERFIT
RTX	+237.7%	+231131.9%	-230894.1%	before 1993	2294	OVERFIT
RVTY	+75.9%	+25547.2%	-25471.3%	before 1993	1927	OVERFIT
SBAC	+6278.9%	+2259.6%	+4019.3%	+8.0 pts	933	OVERFIT
SCHW	+211.1%	+45501.9%	-45290.8%	before 1993	1378	MARGINAL
SJM	-63.5%	+1119.0%	-1182.5%	-14.2 pts	1151	OVERFIT
SLB	-96.6%	+1125.4%	-1222.0%	before 1993	1675	OVERFIT
SMCI	+8.2%	+4155.7%	-4147.5%	-10.7 pts	665	INCONCLUSIVE
SNA	-55.2%	+12522.0%	-12577.2%	before 1993	1895	OVERFIT
SO	-38.3%	+32617.4%	-32655.7%	before 1993	1804	OVERFIT
SOLV	n/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG	+84.6%	+5330.6%	-5246.0%	-9.0 pts	1212	OVERFIT
SPGI	+128.1%	+140503.3%	-140375.2%	before 1993	1963	OVERFIT
SRE	-45.3%	+1463.0%	-1508.3%	-11.0 pts	1040	OVERFIT
STE	-69.2%	+15491.4%	-15560.7%	before 1993	1225	OVERFIT
STLD	+706.7%	+7831.8%	-7125.1%	-2.7 pts	1048	OVERFIT
STT	+10000.2%	+199686.1%	-189686.0%	before 1993	1633	OVERFIT
STZ	+26.1%	+10007.0%	-9980.8%	before 1993	1202	OVERFIT
SW	-52.3%	+775.0%	-827.3%	-16.0 pts	457	INCONCLUSIVE
SWK	-79.3%	+5887.9%	-5967.2%	before 1993	1712	OVERFIT
SWKS	-83.3%	+1317.3%	-1400.6%	before 1993	1489	OVERFIT
SYF	+94.6%	+325.2%	-230.6%	-8.3 pts	431	INCONCLUSIVE
SYK	+1774.6%	+430371.4%	-428596.9%	before 1993	1654	OVERFIT
SYY	+54.0%	+115885.9%	-115831.9%	before 1993	1800	OVERFIT
T	+37.0%	+10219.8%	-10182.7%	before 1993	1597	OVERFIT
TAP	-96.4%	+518.8%	-615.2%	before 1993	1821	OVERFIT
TDG	-1.4%	+13285.3%	-13286.7%	-11.1 pts	778	OVERFIT
TDY	+10.7%	+7164.6%	-7153.9%	-8.0 pts	1018	OVERFIT
TECH	+45.2%	+79246.8%	-79201.5%	before 1993	1341	OVERFIT
TEL	+18.0%	+671.1%	-653.0%	-9.9 pts	732	INCONCLUSIVE
TFC	-18.4%	+10226.4%	-10244.8%	before 1993	1722	OVERFIT
TGT	+214.9%	+90566.5%	-90351.5%	before 1993	1889	OVERFIT
TJX	-30.1%	+36154.4%	-36184.5%	before 1993	1448	OVERFIT
TKO	-34.2%	+1638.9%	-1673.0%	-10.4 pts	992	OVERFIT
TMO	+104.7%	+36784.3%	-36679.6%	before 1993	1671	OVERFIT
TPL	+28336.4%	+75277.1%	-46940.8%	before 1993	1606	OVERFIT
TPR	+90.6%	+7766.6%	-7676.0%	-6.1 pts	920	OVERFIT
TRGP	+986.1%	+2202.9%	-1216.8%	+2.1 pts	541	INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB	+85.9%	+3366.4%	-3280.5%	before 1993	1303	OVERFIT
TROW	+343.0%	+35932.6%	-35589.6%	before 1993	1472	OVERFIT
TSCO	+374.8%	+15199.0%	-14824.2%	-6.0 pts	1216	OVERFIT
TSN	+69.4%	+4340.8%	-4271.4%	before 1993	1620	OVERFIT
TT	+798.2%	+49748.2%	-48949.9%	before 1993	1652	MARGINAL
TTD	n/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT	+745.3%	+4901.2%	-4155.9%	before 1993	1832	MARGINAL
TYL	-78.1%	+43359.1%	-43437.1%	before 1993	1793	OVERFIT
UAL	+31.1%	+240.6%	-209.5%	-9.8 pts	754	OVERFIT
UBER	n/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR	-82.8%	+14119.5%	-14202.3%	before 1993	1680	OVERFIT
UHS	+757.9%	+15293.2%	-14535.3%	before 1993	1621	MARGINAL
ULTA	+2.1%	+1721.3%	-1719.2%	-10.9 pts	639	INCONCLUSIVE
UNP	+30.0%	+30311.4%	-30281.4%	before 1993	1693	OVERFIT
UPS	-82.8%	+233.2%	-316.0%	-14.9 pts	1013	OVERFIT
URI	+8090.6%	+7088.3%	+1002.3%	+7.2 pts	960	GENERALIZED
USB	+1075.0%	+44799.0%	-43724.0%	before 1993	1748	OVERFIT
VEEV	+43.3%	+668.8%	-625.5%	-11.4 pts	429	INCONCLUSIVE
VICI	n/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO	+745.7%	+23394.0%	-22648.2%	before 1993	1555	OVERFIT
VLTO	n/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC	+4354.8%	+48759.3%	-44404.5%	before 1993	1926	OVERFIT
VRSK	-24.0%	+648.8%	-672.8%	-16.1 pts	629	INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN	+1179.1%	+5322.0%	-4142.9%	+0.0 pts	957	MARGINAL
VRT	n/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VST	n/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR	-26.3%	+1496.8%	-1523.2%	-10.8 pts	1072	OVERFIT
VTRS	-83.5%	+1568.8%	-1652.3%	before 1993	1619	OVERFIT
VZ	-69.2%	+4889.1%	-4958.3%	before 1993	1565	OVERFIT
WAB	-49.7%	+4137.7%	-4187.4%	-13.0 pts	1111	OVERFIT
WAT	+51.5%	+10865.4%	-10813.9%	-9.2 pts	1181	OVERFIT
WEC	+173.8%	+23656.8%	-23482.9%	before 1993	1722	OVERFIT
WELL	-66.4%	+58774.1%	-58840.6%	before 1993	1767	OVERFIT
WFC	-51.1%	+63452.2%	-63503.4%	before 1993	1998	OVERFIT
WM	+4.8%	+8471.2%	-8466.4%	before 1993	1394	OVERFIT
WMB	+83.9%	+11974.1%	-11890.2%	before 1993	1585	OVERFIT
WSM	-57.3%	+69865.8%	-69923.1%	before 1993	1619	OVERFIT
WST	+3139.4%	+79208.6%	-76069.2%	before 1993	1614	MARGINAL
WTW	-38.4%	+1181.6%	-1220.0%	-11.3 pts	923	OVERFIT
WY	-95.5%	+1781.4%	-1876.8%	before 1993	2050	OVERFIT
WYNN	-33.9%	+1217.6%	-1251.5%	-13.1 pts	864	OVERFIT
XOM	-89.5%	+183657.9%	-183747.3%	before 1993	2422	OVERFIT
XYL	+30.3%	+455.0%	-424.7%	-13.4 pts	516	INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ	+136.5%	+527.5%	-391.1%	-6.4 pts	367	INCONCLUSIVE
YUM	-44.0%	+4282.5%	-4326.4%	-11.3 pts	992	OVERFIT
ZBH	-14.7%	+292.2%	-306.8%	-10.3 pts	861	OVERFIT
ZBRA	+220.2%	+8617.7%	-8397.4%	before 1993	1196	OVERFIT
ZTS	-14.6%	+179.3%	-193.9%	-15.8 pts	488	INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 2 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
EUR/USD	-23.8%	-3.1%	-20.6%	-12.2 pts	875	OVERFIT
GBP/USD	-17.9%	-21.2%	+3.3%	-11.9 pts	895	OVERFIT
USD/JPY	-3.0%	+40.2%	-43.3%	-10.3 pts	1119	OVERFIT
USD/MXN	-34.3%	+49.9%	-84.2%	-12.8 pts	880	OVERFIT
AUD/USD	-14.3%	-6.6%	-7.7%	-11.9 pts	763	OVERFIT
USD/CAD	-11.7%	+1.7%	-13.4%	-11.7 pts	926	OVERFIT
USD/CHF	-43.4%	-41.4%	-2.0%	-13.6 pts	904	OVERFIT
NZD/USD	+6.8%	-8.1%	+14.9%	-10.7 pts	853	OVERFIT

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 2

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
Bitcoin	+11157.4%	+17075.3%	-5918.0%	+17.6 pts	576	INCONCLUSIVE
Ether	n/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin	+326.0%	+859.3%	-533.4%	-5.1 pts	634	INCONCLUSIVE
Solana	n/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardano	n/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoin	n/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset	5 min	15 min	1 hour	4 hours	Daily
Litecoin	-1348.2%	-1348.2%	-1348.2%	-1347.8%	-533.4%
Solana	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Cardano	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Dogecoin	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
EUR/USD	-87.7%	-87.5%	-89.5%	-54.0%	-20.6%
GBP/USD	-87.5%	-87.4%	-72.2%	-23.7%	+3.3%
USD/JPY	-136.0%	-135.6%	-120.8%	-65.1%	-43.3%
AUD/USD	—	—	—	—	-7.7%
USD/CAD	-136.7%	-136.6%	-99.4%	-61.8%	-13.4%
USD/CHF	-85.1%	-85.0%	-55.6%	-32.1%	-2.0%
NZD/USD	-82.5%	-82.5%	-83.1%	-26.4%	+14.9%
S&P 500 (SPY)	-454.0%	-454.0%	-441.4%	-353.7%	-3126.4%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)	-705.1%	-705.1%	-680.8%	-606.8%	-1613.5%
Russell 2000 (IWM)	-307.3%	-307.3%	-296.6%	-222.0%	-878.6%
Emergentes (EEM)	-269.1%	-269.1%	-256.0%	-198.3%	-799.4%
Oro (GLD)	-397.4%	-397.4%	-372.9%	-251.0%	-760.6%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)	-91.8%	-91.8%	-84.1%	-41.4%	-186.8%
AAPL	-1349.6%	-1349.6%	-1311.6%	-964.0%	-320981.3%
AMGN	-379.1%	-379.1%	-361.5%	-243.2%	-185689.6%
AMZN	-836.5%	-836.5%	-786.5%	-692.6%	-260451.6%
AXP	-573.8%	-573.8%	-526.4%	-441.9%	-27113.2%
BA	-166.5%	-166.5%	-149.8%	+412.4%	-105325.3%
CAT	-1513.0%	-1513.0%	-1412.8%	-1157.2%	-168327.5%
CRM	-339.5%	-339.5%	-316.4%	-111.8%	-5832.6%
CSCO	-570.4%	-570.4%	-561.0%	-493.8%	-222426.7%
CVX	-358.2%	-358.2%	-350.8%	-304.2%	-68096.0%
DIS	-114.8%	-114.8%	-102.5%	-26.0%	-183230.2%
GOOGL	-920.8%	-920.8%	-901.3%	-839.2%	-13069.6%
GS	-723.2%	-723.2%	-692.1%	-544.3%	-1876.0%
HD	-324.2%	-324.2%	-310.2%	-200.1%	-1984163.9%
HON	-280.6%	-280.6%	-264.1%	-222.6%	-21123.9%
IBM	-286.6%	-286.6%	-255.4%	-110.9%	-16190.8%
JNJ	-357.5%	-357.5%	-349.5%	-283.4%	-445091.5%
JPM	-742.2%	-742.2%	-727.9%	-591.1%	-34484.4%
KO	-293.4%	-293.4%	-280.7%	-236.3%	-199312.8%
MCD	-285.6%	-285.6%	-267.9%	-207.9%	-236211.7%
MMM	-200.3%	-200.3%	-192.5%	-127.3%	-31215.0%
MRK	-409.4%	-409.4%	-400.1%	-313.1%	-233295.0%
MSFT	-1077.0%	-1077.0%	-1063.8%	-998.4%	-858915.4%
NKE	-74.3%	-74.3%	-69.8%	-32.1%	-31448.2%
NVDA	-27586.0%	-27585.8%	-27331.7%	-26179.6%	-581861.7%
PG	-246.9%	-246.9%	-234.5%	-188.1%	-59748.4%
SHW	-449.0%	-449.0%	-435.9%	-338.2%	-231757.3%
TRV	-422.1%	-422.1%	-416.3%	-359.9%	-11566.7%
UNH	-401.4%	-401.4%	-383.8%	-307.4%	-353114.4%
V	-543.9%	-543.9%	-537.4%	-498.9%	-3016.1%
WMT	-607.6%	-607.6%	-578.7%	-538.5%	-915342.8%
ABNB	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ADBE	-317.0%	-317.0%	-301.1%	-193.7%	-147467.0%
ADI	-814.6%	-814.6%	-797.5%	-729.3%	-81618.2%
ADP	-441.3%	-441.3%	-430.9%	-358.7%	-74272.6%
ADSK	-432.2%	-432.2%	-412.4%	-382.1%	-57152.0%
AEP	-305.4%	-305.4%	-290.5%	-238.8%	-13676.7%
ALAB	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ALNY	-254.9%	-254.9%	-243.4%	-216.0%	-2663.8%
AMAT	-2817.9%	-2817.9%	-2766.7%	-2673.2%	-664686.0%
AMD	-16807.9%	-16807.9%	-16680.0%	-16160.3%	-14268.1%
APP	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ARM	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ASML	-2158.7%	-2158.7%	-2144.3%	-1989.6%	-96243.7%
AVGO	-3403.2%	-3403.1%	-3271.8%	-3225.2%	-32276.2%
AXON	-3569.4%	-3569.3%	-3488.7%	-2803.1%	-94737.1%
BKNG	-421.6%	-421.5%	-393.7%	-316.3%	-942.2%
BKR	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-1023.1%
CCEP	-415.8%	-415.8%	-395.3%	-327.1%	-7100.8%
CDNS	-1658.0%	-1658.0%	-1637.5%	-1448.5%	-16892.3%
CEG	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
CMCSA	-135.8%	-135.8%	-130.9%	-111.5%	-47088.6%
COST	-707.4%	-707.4%	-680.9%	-570.3%	-12777.8%
CPRT	-700.6%	-700.6%	-666.9%	-467.9%	-20585.5%
CRWD	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
CSX	-696.6%	-696.6%	-687.7%	-588.1%	-40514.4%
CTAS	-1031.2%	-1031.2%	-1009.9%	-808.1%	-122877.3%
DASH	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
DDOG	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
DXCM	-462.8%	-462.8%	-454.5%	-353.3%	-578.4%
EA	—	—	—	—	n/a
EXC	-318.9%	-318.9%	-309.7%	-264.2%	-17748.5%
FANG	-393.3%	-393.3%	-372.0%	-267.8%	-1369.9%
FAST	-656.9%	-656.9%	-647.2%	-578.0%	-260010.3%
FER	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-557.2%
FTNT	-2745.6%	-2745.6%	-2728.8%	-2585.5%	-10119.9%
GEHC	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
GILD	-214.0%	-214.0%	-211.2%	-177.0%	-33565.7%
HONA	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
IDXX	-780.4%	-780.3%	-771.6%	-619.4%	-58153.4%
INTC	-333.1%	-333.1%	-319.8%	-228.5%	-49259.1%
INTU	-414.2%	-414.2%	-399.0%	-349.3%	-15431.8%
ISRG	-612.6%	-612.6%	-597.0%	-531.5%	-17854.7%
KHC	-56.8%	-56.8%	-52.9%	-25.5%	-14.5%
KLAC	-3063.6%	-3063.6%	-3035.9%	-2874.6%	-289457.4%
LIN	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-10848.3%
LITE	-4008.1%	-4008.1%	-3991.1%	-3707.8%	-4626.6%
LRCX	-4481.4%	-4481.4%	-4462.0%	-4207.3%	-159883.0%
MAR	-594.3%	-594.3%	-566.7%	-434.5%	-2513.2%
MCHP	-391.6%	-391.6%	-376.1%	-230.7%	-42038.7%
MDLZ	-182.0%	-182.0%	-172.5%	-134.3%	-522.2%
MELI	-1800.1%	-1800.1%	-1743.6%	-1577.3%	-6377.3%
META	-570.4%	-570.4%	-557.2%	-450.9%	-1473.1%
MNST	-194.8%	-194.8%	-190.7%	-113.3%	-61297.1%
MPWR	-2250.5%	-2250.4%	-2237.7%	-2193.4%	-14476.1%
MRVL	-2679.8%	-2679.8%	-2661.2%	-2439.0%	-1521.1%
MSTR	-743.9%	-743.9%	-544.1%	+709.5%	+13437.4%
MU	-6675.8%	-6675.8%	-6521.1%	-6253.5%	-70061.6%
NFLX	-743.2%	-743.2%	-718.3%	-580.7%	-66191.3%
NXPI	-300.5%	-300.5%	-292.5%	-272.8%	-1686.8%
ODFL	-1063.8%	-1063.8%	-1034.0%	-837.3%	-36542.2%
ORLY	-539.4%	-539.4%	-519.2%	-427.7%	-54757.3%
PANW	-1299.9%	-1299.9%	-1231.9%	-876.7%	-3839.7%
PCAR	-580.1%	-580.1%	-572.9%	-519.0%	-56784.4%
PDD	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
PEP	-196.8%	-196.8%	-191.0%	-151.1%	-37839.5%
PLTR	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
PYPL	-155.8%	-155.8%	-150.7%	-102.9%	-95.0%
QCOM	-438.6%	-438.6%	-423.2%	-318.4%	-50449.1%
REGN	-155.2%	-155.2%	-149.2%	-100.4%	-3780.9%
ROP	-244.2%	-244.2%	-237.9%	-188.3%	-25859.8%
ROST	-465.7%	-465.7%	-456.1%	-385.3%	-55205.6%
SBUX	-232.0%	-232.0%	-225.1%	-158.2%	-42922.2%
SHOP	-5944.8%	-5944.6%	-5337.4%	-5473.8%	-8334.7%
SNDK	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
SNPS	-985.3%	-985.3%	-954.1%	-906.3%	-5575.4%
STX	-3652.5%	-3652.5%	-3594.6%	-3468.8%	-8090.3%
TER	-1857.0%	-1857.0%	-1830.1%	-1451.6%	-29862.9%
TMUS	-489.7%	-489.7%	-480.3%	-448.1%	-352.7%
TRI	-362.7%	-362.7%	-345.6%	-245.2%	-591.4%
TSLA	-2341.6%	-2341.5%	-1836.8%	-519.0%	-17966.5%
TTWO	-688.9%	-688.9%	-681.5%	-645.2%	-5533.1%
TXN	-637.7%	-637.7%	-633.2%	-589.8%	-38103.1%
VRTX	-440.8%	-440.8%	-431.1%	-387.3%	-11941.2%
WBD	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	+32.8%
WDAY	-263.3%	-263.3%	-250.3%	-165.9%	-331.3%
WDC	-1171.5%	-1171.5%	-1103.1%	-824.4%	-62792.4%
XEL	-295.9%	-295.9%	-285.8%	-202.2%	-7317.1%
KDP	-278.1%	-278.1%	-263.5%	-207.1%	-905.8%
USD/MXN	-135.0%	-134.9%	-143.7%	-94.1%	-84.2%
Bitcoin	-18084.8%	-18084.8%	-18084.8%	-18059.0%	-5918.0%
Ether	—	—	—	—	n/a

2 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 6 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

Parameters	Return	Sharpe	Max DD	Vs. index
er_period 10, fast_sc 2, slow_sc 30	-45.4%	-0.46	-71.6%	-3126.4%
er_period 5, fast_sc 2, slow_sc 30	-65.3%	-0.55	-79.0%	-3146.4%
er_period 20, fast_sc 2, slow_sc 30	43.8%	-0.21	-49.0%	-3037.2%
er_period 10, fast_sc 4, slow_sc 20	273.7%	0.05	-38.1%	-2807.3%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.09 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (-56.0% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+24.0% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0905 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 6540eaf5c46b · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 21 markets

Sources for the claim

Kaufman, Trading Systems and Methods

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA): works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 6540eaf5c46b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/kama-adaptive-average

Reproduce it with your own strategy