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Finaxion Research · Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on ON?

Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) beats buy-and-hold on ON by +2.5 points a year over 26 years.

Total return
468.6%
Buy and hold
208.7%
CAGR
6.8%
Sharpe
0.26
Max drawdown
-70.1%
Trades
944
Out of sample
overfit
Years
26
0.1×1×8×2001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyON

Findings

  1. Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) beats buy-and-hold on ON by +2.5 points a year over 26 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -1.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +468.6% versus +208.7% for buy-and-hold, with 944 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -70.1%.
  6. It beat before 2013 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #28 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 6540eaf5c46b.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses above KAMA(10, 2, 30) → entry; close crosses below → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ON over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ON → · Full page for Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on ON?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 6540eaf5c46b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/kama-adaptive-average/on

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.