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Finaxion Research · Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on ORLY?

Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) does not beat buy-and-hold on ORLY: -15.3 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
498.4%
Buy and hold
×554
CAGR
5.5%
Sharpe
0.17
Max drawdown
-54.3%
Trades
1234
Out of sample
overfit
Years
33
1×10×100×648×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyORLY

Findings

  1. Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) does not beat buy-and-hold on ORLY: -15.3 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -5.4 points a year.
  3. Total return +498.4% versus ×554 for buy-and-hold, with 1234 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -54.3%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
  7. It ranks #57 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 6540eaf5c46b.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses above KAMA(10, 2, 30) → entry; close crosses below → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ORLY over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ORLY → · Full page for Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on ORLY?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 6540eaf5c46b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/kama-adaptive-average/orly

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.