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Finaxion Research · Smart Money: the liquidity sweep · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on FIX?

Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on FIX: -17.1 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
22.9%
Buy and hold
×121
CAGR
0.7%
Sharpe
-0.64
Max drawdown
-15.8%
Trades
98
Out of sample
overfit
Years
29
1×10×100×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyFIX

Findings

  1. Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on FIX: -17.1 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +22.9% versus ×121 for buy-and-hold, with 98 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -15.8%.
  6. It beat before 2012 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #19 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2544360d2bb7.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 25-bar low pierced with a close back above it on the same bar → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FIX over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FIX → · Full page for Smart Money: the liquidity sweep →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on FIX?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2544360d2bb7. https://finaxion.app/en/research/liquidity-sweep/fix

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.