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Finaxion Research · Smart Money: the liquidity sweep · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on NVR?

Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on NVR: -21.9 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
-10.9%
Buy and hold
×616
CAGR
-0.4%
Sharpe
-1.36
Max drawdown
-25.6%
Trades
108
Out of sample
overfit
Years
33
1×10×100×940×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyNVR

Findings

  1. Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on NVR: -21.9 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -11.2 points a year.
  3. Total return -10.9% versus ×616 for buy-and-hold, with 108 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -25.6%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #112 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2544360d2bb7.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 25-bar low pierced with a close back above it on the same bar → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NVR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NVR → · Full page for Smart Money: the liquidity sweep →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on NVR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2544360d2bb7. https://finaxion.app/en/research/liquidity-sweep/nvr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.