FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Smart Money: the liquidity sweep · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on PM?

Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on PM: -12.4 points a year over 18 years.

Total return
1.9%
Buy and hold
785.7%
CAGR
0.1%
Sharpe
-1.29
Max drawdown
-10.5%
Trades
56
Out of sample
—
Years
18
1×4.9×200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyPM

Findings

  1. Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on PM: -12.4 points a year over 18 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -12.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +1.9% versus +785.7% for buy-and-hold, with 56 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -10.5%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #145 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2544360d2bb7.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 25-bar low pierced with a close back above it on the same bar → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PM over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PM → · Full page for Smart Money: the liquidity sweep →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on PM?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2544360d2bb7. https://finaxion.app/en/research/liquidity-sweep/pm

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.