FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Smart Money: the liquidity sweep · indices and ETFs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on TLT?

Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on TLT: -4.1 points a year over 24 years.

Total return
-13.4%
Buy and hold
131.2%
CAGR
-0.6%
Sharpe
-2.73
Max drawdown
-14.5%
Trades
70
Out of sample
overfit
Years
24
0.9×1×2.4×200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyTLT

Findings

  1. Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not beat buy-and-hold on TLT: -4.1 points a year over 24 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -11.9 points a year.
  3. Total return -13.4% versus +131.2% for buy-and-hold, with 70 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -14.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2014).
  7. It ranks #137 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2544360d2bb7.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 25-bar low pierced with a close back above it on the same bar → entry; exit after 20 bars.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TLT over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TLT → · Full page for Smart Money: the liquidity sweep →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Smart Money: the liquidity sweep work on TLT?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2544360d2bb7. https://finaxion.app/en/research/liquidity-sweep/tlt

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.