FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Mean reversion · Updated 2026-09-10

RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)

Works in few markets

Its ground: forex, on 4-hour, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 42 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
16 / 489
Vs. index
-6.3 pts/yr
Total return
350.0%
Sharpe
0.11
Max drawdown
-55.2%
Trades
56
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)?

The RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) strategy beats buy-and-hold mostly on forex pairs: 13 of 40 markets (32%). It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, asset by asset in 40 of 958.

  1. RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) beats buy-and-hold mostly on forex pairs: 13 of 40 markets (32%).
  2. It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14.
  3. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, asset by asset in 40 of 958.
  4. Of the 16 daily markets where it beats, 12 hold out of sample (75%).
  5. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  6. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 1 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 12 of 118.
  7. Its best daily market is LITE: +17.5 points a year over the S&P 500 across 11 years, 30 trades.
  8. Its worst daily market is AKAM: -22.8 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 4941ce415f47.

The promise

“RSI below 30 = oversold, buy. RSI above 70 = overbought, sell. It’s the most used indicator in the world for a reason.”

Exactly what we tested

RSI(14) crosses below 30 → entry. RSI(14) crosses above 70 → exit. Next-close execution.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)+350.0%+3081.0%-2731.0%-6.3 pts56OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+101.5%+1565.8%-1464.3%-6.0 pts46OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+146.3%+801.9%-655.6%-5.2 pts40OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+100.4%+830.9%-730.5%-8.6 pts32MARGINAL
Oro (GLD)+94.5%+820.3%-725.7%-7.8 pts34OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+31.5%+131.2%-99.7%-10.1 pts35OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)+193.6%+3081.0%-2887.4%-7.6 pts206

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)+16652.0%+3081.0%+13571.0%+5.6 pts536

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)+34480.5%+3081.0%+31399.5%+8.2 pts3210

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 10 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 20 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL+2.5%+322813.1%-322810.6%before 199374OVERFIT
AMGN+7814.5%+187272.6%-179458.1%before 199382GENERALIZED
AMZN+698.8%+265196.1%-264497.3%-2.3 pts48MARGINAL
AXP+1140.7%+27029.4%-25888.7%before 1993102OVERFIT
BA+605.9%+108724.7%-108118.8%before 1993123OVERFIT
CAT+3910.9%+172708.3%-168797.3%before 1993137OVERFIT
CRM+455.6%+5992.9%-5537.4%-2.9 pts34OVERFIT
CSCO+26.9%+222956.6%-222929.7%before 199350OVERFIT
CVX+6587.3%+68037.6%-61450.4%before 1993128OVERFIT
DIS+1399.6%+189847.3%-188447.6%before 1993130OVERFIT
GOOGL+330.4%+13534.3%-13204.0%-4.4 pts38OVERFIT
GS+1589.5%+2027.1%-437.6%+2.5 pts54OVERFIT
HD+1414.0%+1985758.9%-1984344.9%before 199374OVERFIT
HON+5111.2%+21058.8%-15947.6%before 1993124MARGINAL
IBM+1775.0%+16203.8%-14428.8%before 1993133OVERFIT
JNJ+5277.0%+445196.6%-439919.6%before 1993128OVERFIT
JPM+1595.0%+34522.5%-32927.5%before 199392OVERFIT
KO+540.9%+199349.6%-198808.7%before 199392OVERFIT
MCD+3612.4%+236707.0%-233094.5%before 1993109MARGINAL
MMM+5004.6%+31160.0%-26155.4%before 1993128OVERFIT
MRK+335.2%+233375.1%-233039.9%before 1993100OVERFIT
MSFT+3312.3%+859506.0%-856193.7%before 199368OVERFIT
NKE+517.5%+32003.7%-31486.1%before 199389OVERFIT
NVDA+153.5%+587720.8%-587567.3%-5.3 pts44OVERFIT
PG+2600.5%+59706.6%-57106.2%before 1993119OVERFIT
SHW+27517.6%+231766.6%-204248.9%before 199388MARGINAL
TRV+1131.2%+12287.7%-11156.5%before 1993104MARGINAL
UNH+1662.0%+353381.4%-351719.4%before 199372MARGINAL
V+446.1%+2961.1%-2515.0%-2.5 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+13259.1%+915365.3%-902106.2%before 1993105MARGINAL
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+5221.7%+147731.1%-142509.4%before 199377GENERALIZED
ADI+4958.6%+81534.0%-76575.4%before 199382MARGINAL
ADP+6163.7%+74205.9%-68042.2%before 199384MARGINAL
ADSK+2201.5%+58084.6%-55883.1%before 199380MARGINAL
AEP+1631.0%+13797.6%-12166.6%before 1993128OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+1213.8%+3338.4%-2124.6%+1.3 pts41MARGINAL
AMAT+125.1%+664974.8%-664849.7%before 199362OVERFIT
AMD+596.8%+14863.3%-14266.5%before 199398OVERFIT
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+27.6%+96277.5%-96249.8%-10.2 pts42MARGINAL
AVGO+926.1%+32512.1%-31585.9%-0.1 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
AXON-13.8%+123065.2%-123079.0%-10.1 pts50OVERFIT
BKNG+8.3%+922.2%-914.0%-8.3 pts64OVERFIT
BKR+246.8%+933.9%-687.1%before 199365OVERFIT
CCEP+489.7%+7081.8%-6592.1%before 199374OVERFIT
CDNS+1186.9%+16839.0%-15652.1%before 199369OVERFIT
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+602.9%+47049.9%-46447.0%before 199369OVERFIT
COST+1451.9%+12800.7%-11348.8%before 199364OVERFIT
CPRT+5241.6%+21554.9%-16313.3%+2.1 pts72OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+2615.6%+40426.1%-37810.6%before 199386MARGINAL
CTAS+1368.6%+123411.3%-122042.7%before 199362OVERFIT
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+268.1%+3002.6%-2734.5%-5.0 pts46OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+391.7%+17730.6%-17338.8%before 199391OVERFIT
FANG+243.2%+1406.8%-1163.6%-5.5 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+27585.9%+262350.7%-234764.8%before 199380GENERALIZED
FER+43.5%+593.7%-550.2%-12.2 pts39INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+272.2%+10184.6%-9912.4%-6.0 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+4716.4%+33594.8%-28878.3%before 199356OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+905.9%+58789.5%-57883.6%before 199355MARGINAL
INTC+5699.7%+49216.9%-43517.1%before 199394MARGINAL
INTU+648.1%+15430.2%-14782.1%-4.6 pts48MARGINAL
ISRG+700.7%+18484.9%-17784.2%-0.1 pts49OVERFIT
KDP+170.1%+1090.2%-920.1%-6.2 pts36INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-19.0%-42.2%+23.2%-16.2 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+2085.8%+289399.1%-287313.4%before 199376MARGINAL
LIN+1726.2%+10777.0%-9050.8%before 199352MARGINAL
LITE+2011.9%+5280.9%-3269.1%+17.5 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+248.3%+159814.6%-159566.3%before 199360OVERFIT
MAR+140.5%+2539.5%-2399.0%-5.8 pts44OVERFIT
MCHP+9721.2%+41961.5%-32240.3%+3.9 pts58MARGINAL
MDLZ+306.3%+461.4%-155.1%-3.7 pts46OVERFIT
MELI+409.8%+6911.0%-6501.3%-2.2 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
META+129.3%+1410.2%-1281.0%-9.2 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+649.7%+61968.9%-61319.2%before 199377MARGINAL
MPWR+3155.6%+15002.1%-11846.6%+6.4 pts46MARGINAL
MRVL+419.1%+1645.0%-1225.9%-2.0 pts40OVERFIT
MSTR-75.0%+1158.6%-1233.6%-13.8 pts58OVERFIT
MU-77.2%+70877.8%-70954.9%before 199366OVERFIT
NFLX+26.3%+67643.2%-67616.9%-9.3 pts43OVERFIT
NXPI+570.5%+1721.2%-1150.7%-2.1 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+869.8%+36444.7%-35574.9%before 199346OVERFIT
ORLY+1354.4%+55255.7%-53901.3%-2.6 pts53MARGINAL
PANW+635.0%+4215.4%-3580.4%+0.2 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+4030.9%+57106.4%-53075.5%before 1993102MARGINAL
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+2451.2%+37760.7%-35309.5%before 199390MARGINAL
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL+120.7%+44.7%+76.0%-7.0 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+3272.9%+50430.1%-47157.2%before 199367OVERFIT
REGN+1967.7%+3718.3%-1750.7%before 199376OVERFIT
ROP+796.4%+26003.6%-25207.2%before 199354MARGINAL
ROST+775.0%+55801.1%-55026.1%before 199374OVERFIT
SBUX+1564.1%+43019.5%-41455.5%before 199361MARGINAL
SHOP+178.0%+8568.8%-8390.9%-4.4 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+5619.9%+5482.1%+137.8%before 199366MARGINAL
STX-24.7%+15614.6%-15639.3%-12.6 pts42OVERFIT
TER+939.5%+31309.8%-30370.3%before 1993106OVERFIT
TMUS-15.3%+318.0%-333.3%-11.8 pts27INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+61.2%+578.4%-517.3%-8.7 pts37OVERFIT
TSLA+1616.3%+23002.8%-21386.5%+4.1 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+769.2%+5509.7%-4740.5%-2.4 pts42OVERFIT
TXN+1848.9%+38040.6%-36191.7%before 1993100OVERFIT
VRTX+2201.4%+12000.4%-9799.0%before 199362MARGINAL
WBD+27.0%+302.2%-275.1%-10.0 pts38OVERFIT
WDAY+80.3%+305.5%-225.2%-10.5 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+93.4%+66202.2%-66108.8%before 199394OVERFIT
XEL+749.1%+7388.9%-6639.8%before 1993104OVERFIT
A+7.7%+486.3%-478.7%-8.1 pts44OVERFIT
ABBV+446.0%+1156.0%-710.0%-1.6 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+5741.7%+62056.2%-56314.5%before 199382MARGINAL
ACGL+756.3%+4268.0%-3511.7%-3.4 pts52OVERFIT
ACN+136.0%+1726.5%-1590.5%-6.0 pts40OVERFIT
ADM+1560.2%+9265.6%-7705.4%before 199390MARGINAL
AEE+598.2%+813.9%-215.7%-2.3 pts48OVERFIT
AES-85.7%+647.5%-733.2%before 199352OVERFIT
AFL+5817.4%+205848.4%-200031.0%before 199374OVERFIT
AIG-56.3%+468.3%-524.5%before 1993109OVERFIT
AIZ+122.6%+1585.5%-1462.9%-7.2 pts38OVERFIT
AJG+1834.0%+41899.5%-40065.5%before 199388MARGINAL
AKAM-98.4%-25.2%-73.2%-22.8 pts38OVERFIT
ALB+80.9%+3091.3%-3010.5%-9.0 pts53OVERFIT
ALGN-21.6%+846.9%-868.5%-9.8 pts48OVERFIT
ALL+20.9%+3674.2%-3653.4%-10.3 pts46OVERFIT
ALLE+155.8%+265.9%-110.1%-6.3 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR+212.3%+100.6%+111.7%-6.7 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
AME+6017.2%+25325.0%-19307.9%before 199382MARGINAL
AMP+285.8%+2154.1%-1868.2%-4.5 pts32OVERFIT
AMT+66.1%+1310.2%-1244.1%-7.3 pts45OVERFIT
ANET+1024.9%+5592.8%-4567.9%+8.2 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
AON+4409.7%+29815.0%-25405.4%before 199394OVERFIT
AOS+782.1%+13924.9%-13142.8%before 199399OVERFIT
APA+4594.9%+2417.2%+2177.6%before 199390MARGINAL
APD+3196.9%+20722.2%-17525.3%before 199382MARGINAL
APH+1320.7%+146951.6%-145630.9%before 199362MARGINAL
APO+558.5%+1845.9%-1287.3%-1.0 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+76.5%+174.0%-97.4%-11.3 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+226.7%+624.3%-397.6%-5.5 pts62OVERFIT
ARES+238.4%+1191.9%-953.5%-3.5 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
ATO+2018.0%+13696.4%-11678.4%before 199371OVERFIT
AVB+40.4%+42.3%-1.9%-11.7 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+589.7%+8544.4%-7954.7%before 199393MARGINAL
AWK+250.0%+950.9%-700.9%-4.8 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+1239.5%+40631.8%-39392.3%before 199357OVERFIT
BAC+384.0%+4053.1%-3669.1%before 1993124OVERFIT
BALL+12645.1%+49568.6%-36923.5%before 1993124MARGINAL
BAX+298.8%+1778.4%-1479.6%before 199384OVERFIT
BBY+4.6%+89506.6%-89502.0%before 199380OVERFIT
BDX+1322.6%+21440.4%-20117.8%before 199396OVERFIT
BEN+12369.1%+130378.8%-118009.7%before 1993102MARGINAL
BF-B+1647.2%+14873.5%-13226.3%before 199392OVERFIT
BG+296.0%+1105.5%-809.5%-3.9 pts59OVERFIT
BIIB+210.2%+6832.8%-6622.6%before 199352OVERFIT
BLDR-38.0%+393.7%-431.7%-13.4 pts31OVERFIT
BLK+833.5%+13724.5%-12891.0%-0.1 pts48OVERFIT
BMY+746.8%+23662.6%-22915.8%before 199380OVERFIT
BNY+935.5%+32230.3%-31294.8%before 199396OVERFIT
BR+209.0%+1234.2%-1025.2%-5.0 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+614.0%+2072.5%-1458.5%-3.7 pts52GENERALIZED
BRO+325.2%+76212.8%-75887.6%before 199378OVERFIT
BSX+95.8%+1028.2%-932.4%before 199358OVERFIT
BX+283.4%+1023.3%-740.0%-3.6 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+306.8%+888.9%-582.1%-4.6 pts52OVERFIT
C-33.6%+1897.9%-1931.5%before 199394OVERFIT
CAH+2663.5%+39284.8%-36621.3%before 199390OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+4796.9%+80461.2%-75664.4%before 199376GENERALIZED
CB+797.2%+6587.6%-5790.4%-4.0 pts54OVERFIT
CBOE+109.7%+1060.1%-950.4%-9.9 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+5.0%+2283.8%-2278.8%-10.7 pts37OVERFIT
CCI-33.8%+899.9%-933.6%-10.5 pts41OVERFIT
CCL+943.2%+1154.4%-211.2%before 199385OVERFIT
CDW+231.9%+858.2%-626.3%-4.9 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
CF+228.7%+5815.9%-5587.2%-5.2 pts28OVERFIT
CFG+27.7%+349.9%-322.2%-11.7 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+2585.4%+93736.5%-91151.1%before 199396OVERFIT
CHRW+1774.7%+4307.6%-2533.0%+1.4 pts53OVERFIT
CHTR+73.3%+335.5%-262.2%-10.8 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
CI+1802.5%+12980.8%-11178.3%before 199393MARGINAL
CIEN-72.5%+195.6%-268.1%-14.1 pts56OVERFIT
CINF+289.6%+41545.9%-41256.3%before 199376OVERFIT
CL+8289.8%+20919.0%-12629.2%before 1993102MARGINAL
CLX+3064.8%+6184.2%-3119.4%before 199389MARGINAL
CME+46.1%+6884.2%-6838.1%-9.8 pts31OVERFIT
CMG+479.5%+4221.6%-3742.0%-2.2 pts39OVERFIT
CMI+60.5%+28968.2%-28907.7%before 1993115OVERFIT
CMS-61.6%+630.8%-692.4%before 1993100OVERFIT
CNC+360.6%+4388.8%-4028.3%-3.7 pts40OVERFIT
CNP+1065.0%+13998.0%-12933.0%before 1993111OVERFIT
COF+4081.3%+5724.6%-1643.3%+1.4 pts60MARGINAL
COHR+2470.2%+68288.9%-65818.8%before 199369OVERFIT
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-75.0%+879.8%-954.9%before 199378OVERFIT
COP+1461.3%+13561.7%-12100.4%before 199372MARGINAL
COR+1061.6%+17062.1%-16000.4%-2.8 pts64MARGINAL
CPAY+193.4%+1383.7%-1190.2%-7.2 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+256.7%+2453.9%-2197.2%-7.0 pts62OVERFIT
CRH+1561.9%+7617.9%-6055.9%before 199375OVERFIT
CRL+267.6%+1210.2%-942.5%-3.4 pts50OVERFIT
CSGP+565.3%+3390.6%-2825.3%-1.9 pts53MARGINAL
CTSH+2806.3%+35498.3%-32692.0%+3.7 pts56GENERALIZED
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+910.8%+15658.6%-14747.9%before 199397MARGINAL
D+1070.0%+17762.4%-16692.4%before 199378OVERFIT
DAL+486.0%+339.1%+146.9%-1.2 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
DD+845.5%+10113.6%-9268.2%before 199394OVERFIT
DE+3070.8%+101089.1%-98018.3%before 199398OVERFIT
DECK+279.4%+7024.7%-6745.4%-6.7 pts55OVERFIT
DELL+225.7%+4059.8%-3834.0%-2.6 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
DG+21.1%+550.3%-529.1%-13.1 pts27INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+852.2%+9626.0%-8773.8%-2.2 pts52OVERFIT
DHI+1394.5%+13111.0%-11716.5%before 199350OVERFIT
DHR+12802.9%+483557.2%-470754.4%before 199385MARGINAL
DLR+414.9%+3540.7%-3125.9%-3.4 pts38OVERFIT
DLTR+2426.1%+10731.5%-8305.4%-0.3 pts64MARGINAL
DOC+713.1%+6136.8%-5423.7%before 199376OVERFIT
DOV+510.1%+29264.8%-28754.8%before 199376OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+303.7%+5638.6%-5334.9%-4.6 pts40OVERFIT
DRI+609.2%+6998.7%-6389.5%-4.4 pts52OVERFIT
DTE+358.5%+35264.3%-34905.8%before 199389OVERFIT
DUK+672.9%+16239.0%-15566.1%before 199378OVERFIT
DVA+248.7%+4219.3%-3970.6%-6.5 pts61OVERFIT
DVN+691.4%+1411.9%-720.6%before 199384OVERFIT
EBAY+2818.0%+14035.1%-11217.1%+3.6 pts50GENERALIZED
ECHO+90.6%+227.3%-136.7%-7.8 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+7526.9%+20174.1%-12647.1%before 1993111OVERFIT
ED+732.4%+45081.6%-44349.2%before 1993124OVERFIT
EFX+1972.2%+77234.4%-75262.2%before 199391MARGINAL
EG+1110.1%+2975.7%-1865.6%-2.2 pts54OVERFIT
EIX+1336.7%+14610.5%-13273.8%before 1993109OVERFIT
EL+761.1%+1551.3%-790.2%-3.2 pts64MARGINAL
ELV+770.5%+2326.9%-1556.4%-1.1 pts54OVERFIT
EME+1001.6%+59203.5%-58201.9%-3.3 pts49MARGINAL
EMR+4270.7%+19839.1%-15568.5%before 199396OVERFIT
EOG+3277.8%+9279.7%-6001.9%before 199366OVERFIT
EQIX-27.0%+240.5%-267.4%-9.6 pts54OVERFIT
EQR+14.8%+44.2%-29.4%-13.8 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+75.0%+19557.1%-19482.1%before 199371OVERFIT
ERIE+301.8%+3362.8%-3061.0%-6.0 pts46OVERFIT
ES+1143.9%+2960.1%-1816.2%before 199393OVERFIT
ESS+631.8%+5274.8%-4643.1%-4.7 pts56GENERALIZED
ETN+273.2%+116541.5%-116268.2%before 199394OVERFIT
ETR+539.9%+19797.9%-19258.0%before 199394OVERFIT
EVRG+167.8%+5086.7%-4918.9%before 199384OVERFIT
EW+1161.5%+6500.0%-5338.5%+1.9 pts48MARGINAL
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+18189.1%+148324.6%-130135.5%before 199384MARGINAL
EXPE+600.0%+916.1%-316.1%-1.4 pts52OVERFIT
EXR+257.6%+2698.9%-2441.3%-5.4 pts35GENERALIZED
F+156.9%+6752.4%-6595.4%before 1993110OVERFIT
FCX+27.0%+1061.6%-1034.6%-9.9 pts60OVERFIT
FDS+460.3%+9088.9%-8628.6%-4.4 pts60OVERFIT
FDX+2069.1%+53776.9%-51707.8%before 199396OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+111.6%+563.0%-451.5%-6.9 pts55OVERFIT
FFIV-9.3%+5374.0%-5383.4%-8.9 pts46OVERFIT
FICO+3862.1%+94747.8%-90885.7%before 199388MARGINAL
FIS+42.2%+363.8%-321.6%-8.1 pts39OVERFIT
FITB+202.6%+28280.0%-28077.4%before 199388OVERFIT
FIX+574.9%+11966.2%-11391.3%-2.7 pts54OVERFIT
FLEX+111.2%+7898.6%-7787.4%-8.6 pts50OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+3968.5%+24360.2%-20391.8%before 1993104MARGINAL
FSLR-62.8%+716.1%-778.9%-15.9 pts30OVERFIT
FTV+20.1%+100.1%-80.1%-13.7 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
GD+698.2%+221689.9%-220991.7%before 1993122OVERFIT
GDDY+103.4%+389.4%-286.0%-7.6 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
GE+553.1%+54356.2%-53803.2%before 1993112OVERFIT
GEN+2995.8%+12085.6%-9089.8%before 199380MARGINAL
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+1389.5%+15015.5%-13626.0%before 199377OVERFIT
GL+296.8%+12680.6%-12383.8%before 199364OVERFIT
GLW-69.3%+19301.2%-19370.5%before 199378OVERFIT
GM+59.3%+240.1%-180.8%-11.5 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+57.5%+2091.1%-2033.6%-11.8 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+2859.8%+12785.5%-9925.8%before 199386MARGINAL
GPN+537.5%+2567.9%-2030.4%-1.5 pts44OVERFIT
GRMN-12.2%+5377.3%-5389.5%-9.4 pts40OVERFIT
GWW+17087.4%+55300.2%-38212.8%before 1993128MARGINAL
HAL+1.5%+2860.8%-2859.2%before 199393OVERFIT
HAS+2500.7%+201529.8%-199029.1%before 199390MARGINAL
HBAN+672.7%+3799.5%-3126.8%before 199386OVERFIT
HCA+212.6%+1699.7%-1487.1%-6.5 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+4.0%+951.1%-947.0%-10.3 pts48OVERFIT
HII+164.5%+883.6%-719.1%-7.7 pts35INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+54.3%+659.1%-604.9%-10.6 pts16INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+391.5%+625.0%-233.6%+1.0 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+962.1%+77945.5%-76983.4%before 1993120OVERFIT
HRL+2920.7%+19046.1%-16125.4%before 199397MARGINAL
HSIC+968.0%+1913.1%-945.1%-2.6 pts64OVERFIT
HST+128.9%+12843.9%-12715.0%before 199380OVERFIT
HSY+1329.5%+53964.6%-52635.1%before 199381OVERFIT
HUBB+616.9%+3853.5%-3236.6%-4.7 pts58OVERFIT
HUM+5442.2%+20168.9%-14726.6%before 199392OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+250.1%+1526.1%-1276.0%-4.1 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
ICE+1005.9%+2307.9%-1302.0%+1.1 pts48OVERFIT
IEX+902.8%+12761.2%-11858.4%before 199369MARGINAL
IFF+1201.8%+4754.9%-3553.1%before 199394OVERFIT
INCY+1168.4%+6471.7%-5303.3%-2.9 pts66MARGINAL
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP+3586.6%+4590.1%-1003.5%before 1993126OVERFIT
IQV+99.5%+520.3%-420.8%-8.9 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+1183.7%+9911.6%-8727.9%-1.6 pts70MARGINAL
IT+306.4%+6431.0%-6124.6%-6.5 pts64MARGINAL
ITW+10614.5%+51254.1%-40639.5%before 1993110MARGINAL
IVZ+46.0%+1093.8%-1047.8%-9.5 pts54OVERFIT
J+8434.2%+33544.7%-25110.5%before 1993104MARGINAL
JBHT+776.7%+24926.6%-24150.0%before 199372OVERFIT
JBL+792.0%+41217.7%-40425.7%-4.1 pts66MARGINAL
JCI-7.3%+4376.5%-4383.8%before 199358OVERFIT
JKHY+1572.1%+71288.2%-69716.2%before 199362MARGINAL
KEY-22.9%+1405.6%-1428.5%before 199352OVERFIT
KEYS+100.2%+1042.3%-942.1%-8.3 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+411.2%+3036.5%-2625.3%before 199366MARGINAL
KKR+77.9%+1784.9%-1707.0%-11.2 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+4099.8%+16039.9%-11940.2%before 199388MARGINAL
KMI+60.8%+117.5%-56.7%-10.8 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
KR+863.4%+182706.1%-181842.7%before 1993115OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+182.5%+22398.8%-22216.3%before 199378OVERFIT
LDOS+101.8%+530.2%-428.4%-7.5 pts36OVERFIT
LEN+231.3%+29032.9%-28801.7%before 199383MARGINAL
LH+638.1%+1408.2%-770.2%before 199366OVERFIT
LHX+539.9%+8519.5%-7979.6%before 199381OVERFIT
LII+290.0%+3122.4%-2832.4%-3.4 pts43MARGINAL
LLY+5077.1%+129720.0%-124643.0%before 1993110OVERFIT
LMT+962.4%+67444.7%-66482.3%before 1993126OVERFIT
LNT+641.5%+9408.5%-8766.9%before 199393OVERFIT
LOW+4740.7%+77328.4%-72587.7%before 199395MARGINAL
LULU+9.0%+759.0%-750.0%-10.7 pts39INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+1411.1%+24508.5%-23097.5%before 199389MARGINAL
LVS-88.3%+50.3%-138.7%-20.3 pts35OVERFIT
LYB+48.4%+648.8%-600.4%-11.6 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+96.8%+1558.0%-1461.2%-7.8 pts38OVERFIT
MA+454.9%+14066.9%-13612.0%-2.4 pts28OVERFIT
MAA+411.6%+3525.2%-3113.6%-5.7 pts56OVERFIT
MAS+416.8%+7423.1%-7006.3%before 199382OVERFIT
MCK+24.9%+6946.5%-6921.6%-10.4 pts52OVERFIT
MCO+628.3%+7753.9%-7125.6%-4.6 pts48OVERFIT
MDT+4552.3%+51421.0%-46868.7%before 1993110OVERFIT
MET+160.8%+1176.9%-1016.1%-4.6 pts36OVERFIT
MGM+985.9%+1501.4%-515.4%before 199390MARGINAL
MKC+6738.0%+14401.8%-7663.9%before 1993127MARGINAL
MLM+310.0%+3089.6%-2779.5%-6.5 pts57MARGINAL
MO+2291.1%+2914781.4%-2912490.3%before 1993118OVERFIT
MOS+152.4%+268.9%-116.5%before 199379OVERFIT
MPC+499.2%+2972.8%-2473.6%-2.0 pts36INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+5415.8%+21192.9%-15777.1%before 1993106MARGINAL
MS+177.1%+6159.1%-5982.0%-7.8 pts50OVERFIT
MSCI+374.4%+2406.7%-2032.3%-2.6 pts34INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+144.0%+79243.2%-79099.2%before 1993124OVERFIT
MTB+1693.9%+105049.8%-103356.0%before 199394OVERFIT
MTD+3319.0%+9346.3%-6027.3%+3.6 pts62MARGINAL
NCLH+105.6%-34.9%+140.5%-9.3 pts31INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+154.7%+2371.2%-2216.6%-7.0 pts46OVERFIT
NDSN+853.4%+37769.3%-36915.8%before 199390OVERFIT
NEE+2732.3%+23772.9%-21040.6%before 1993109MARGINAL
NEM+995.6%+2099.8%-1104.2%before 199392MARGINAL
NI+281.8%+5234.9%-4953.1%before 199387OVERFIT
NOC+2148.4%+23369.3%-21220.9%before 199393MARGINAL
NOW+158.1%+2907.9%-2749.9%-8.0 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+252.0%+1442.6%-1190.5%-5.3 pts55OVERFIT
NSC+2109.7%+24520.7%-22411.0%before 199378OVERFIT
NTAP-7.3%+19659.8%-19667.0%-10.8 pts50OVERFIT
NTRS+476.1%+53074.8%-52598.8%before 199384OVERFIT
NUE+2266.4%+70209.1%-67942.6%before 199382MARGINAL
NVR+614.3%+61512.0%-60897.7%-4.7 pts55MARGINAL
NWS+475.8%+152.4%+323.4%-0.1 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+192.3%+122.2%+70.0%-5.9 pts28INCONCLUSIVE
O+943.7%+5366.4%-4422.7%-3.4 pts51OVERFIT
OKE+196.2%+19101.6%-18905.4%before 199376OVERFIT
OMC+1992.1%+15677.5%-13685.4%before 199393OVERFIT
ON-52.1%+208.7%-260.9%-11.2 pts50OVERFIT
ORCL+2501.0%+296729.4%-294228.5%before 199367OVERFIT
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+1666.5%+3580.0%-1913.5%before 199387OVERFIT
PCG-60.7%+1389.7%-1450.3%before 199387OVERFIT
PEG+2643.6%+18884.4%-16240.8%before 199389MARGINAL
PFE+1691.2%+20062.7%-18371.5%before 1993102OVERFIT
PFG+190.5%+920.1%-729.6%-5.8 pts40OVERFIT
PGR+2853.4%+819581.9%-816728.5%before 199398OVERFIT
PH+3237.2%+41129.4%-37892.2%before 199398MARGINAL
PHM+546.9%+95847.7%-95300.8%before 199384OVERFIT
PLD+602.4%+1782.5%-1180.2%-2.3 pts52GENERALIZED
PM+578.0%+785.7%-207.7%-1.3 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+563.3%+37937.9%-37374.6%before 1993102OVERFIT
PNR+6070.0%+11510.8%-5440.9%before 1993131MARGINAL
PNW+181.8%+2247.6%-2065.8%before 199396OVERFIT
PODD+280.3%+831.5%-551.2%-3.6 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+578.0%+21327.4%-20749.5%before 199383OVERFIT
PPL+772.1%+7311.8%-6539.8%before 199393OVERFIT
PRU+497.3%+767.8%-270.5%-2.6 pts44OVERFIT
PSA+578.8%+13958.7%-13379.9%before 199374OVERFIT
PSKY-70.5%-34.8%-35.7%-16.8 pts36OVERFIT
PSX+136.6%+1071.7%-935.0%-8.4 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
PTC+592.6%+8443.5%-7850.9%before 199360MARGINAL
PWR+213.3%+8155.1%-7941.8%-5.1 pts51OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+501.8%+4611.6%-4109.9%-5.4 pts68OVERFIT
REG+384.7%+2046.5%-1661.8%-5.9 pts53OVERFIT
RF+1067.0%+7230.0%-6163.0%before 199396OVERFIT
RJF+4004.0%+52691.1%-48687.0%before 199386OVERFIT
RL+989.0%+1376.9%-388.0%-1.0 pts52OVERFIT
RMD+4583.8%+43254.4%-38670.5%+2.3 pts71MARGINAL
ROK+653.4%+57325.7%-56672.3%before 199366OVERFIT
ROL+8766.8%+36503.9%-27737.1%before 199387MARGINAL
RSG+1038.0%+1977.7%-939.7%+0.2 pts53OVERFIT
RTX+2370.7%+231131.9%-228761.1%before 1993116OVERFIT
RVTY+1190.5%+25547.2%-24356.8%before 199396OVERFIT
SBAC-65.0%+2259.6%-2324.7%-12.3 pts38OVERFIT
SCHW+2201.4%+45501.9%-43300.4%before 199372OVERFIT
SJM+460.2%+1119.0%-658.7%-5.5 pts64MARGINAL
SLB+854.9%+1125.4%-270.5%before 199371OVERFIT
SMCI+210.6%+4155.7%-3945.1%-5.1 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+4787.4%+12522.0%-7734.6%before 1993114MARGINAL
SO+1392.5%+32617.4%-31224.9%before 199374OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+369.6%+5330.6%-4960.9%-6.0 pts56OVERFIT
SPGI+8060.7%+140503.3%-132442.6%before 1993110MARGINAL
SRE+634.3%+1463.0%-828.6%-1.5 pts47OVERFIT
STE+3677.1%+15491.4%-11814.4%before 199365OVERFIT
STLD+1180.4%+7831.8%-6651.4%-1.0 pts49OVERFIT
STT+1371.2%+199686.1%-198315.0%before 199394MARGINAL
STZ+1322.3%+10007.0%-8684.7%before 199370OVERFIT
SW+192.2%+775.0%-582.8%-5.9 pts63INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+1147.0%+5887.9%-4741.0%before 199382OVERFIT
SWKS+9.5%+1317.3%-1307.7%before 199366OVERFIT
SYF+9.2%+325.2%-316.0%-13.2 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+8681.4%+430371.4%-421690.1%before 199381MARGINAL
SYY+11812.6%+115885.9%-104073.3%before 1993114MARGINAL
T+420.9%+10219.8%-9798.9%before 199370OVERFIT
TAP+2606.3%+518.8%+2087.5%before 1993119MARGINAL
TDG+412.7%+13285.3%-12872.6%-2.7 pts29OVERFIT
TDY+305.9%+7164.6%-6858.7%-3.0 pts37OVERFIT
TECH+879.7%+79246.8%-78367.0%before 199364MARGINAL
TEL+90.8%+671.1%-580.2%-7.3 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+1572.9%+10226.4%-8653.6%before 199385OVERFIT
TGT+3438.8%+90566.5%-87127.7%before 1993106MARGINAL
TJX+3386.9%+36154.4%-32767.5%before 199371OVERFIT
TKO+111.0%+1638.9%-1527.9%-6.0 pts50OVERFIT
TMO+429.5%+36784.3%-36354.8%before 199390OVERFIT
TPL+176.1%+75277.1%-75101.1%before 1993101OVERFIT
TPR+1112.4%+7766.6%-6654.2%+1.5 pts48OVERFIT
TRGP+20.0%+2202.9%-2182.9%-13.2 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+271.9%+3366.4%-3094.6%before 199363OVERFIT
TROW+1245.6%+35932.6%-34687.0%before 199374MARGINAL
TSCO+195.6%+15199.0%-15003.5%-7.5 pts48OVERFIT
TSN+197.2%+4340.8%-4143.6%before 1993103OVERFIT
TT+509.8%+49748.2%-49238.4%before 199388OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+111.5%+4901.2%-4789.7%before 199396OVERFIT
TYL+213.4%+43359.1%-43145.6%before 199372OVERFIT
UAL+49.9%+240.6%-190.8%-9.2 pts38OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+1192.5%+14119.5%-12926.9%before 199378MARGINAL
UHS+717.1%+15293.2%-14576.2%before 1993105GENERALIZED
ULTA+424.5%+1721.3%-1296.8%-1.8 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+1223.9%+30311.4%-29087.4%before 199374OVERFIT
UPS+168.0%+233.2%-65.2%-4.7 pts50OVERFIT
URI+66.6%+7088.3%-7021.7%-7.6 pts60OVERFIT
USB+739.9%+44799.0%-44059.1%before 1993114OVERFIT
VEEV+245.2%+668.8%-423.6%-4.1 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+122.6%+23394.0%-23271.4%before 199382OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+4552.3%+48759.3%-44207.0%before 1993121MARGINAL
VRSK+416.4%+648.8%-232.4%-4.2 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+32.4%+5322.0%-5289.6%-8.3 pts55OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+592.2%+1496.8%-904.6%-2.9 pts56OVERFIT
VTRS+1502.7%+1568.8%-66.1%before 199394OVERFIT
VZ+2111.1%+4889.1%-2778.0%before 199392MARGINAL
WAB+1004.4%+4137.7%-3133.3%-2.8 pts54OVERFIT
WAT+2002.9%+10865.4%-8862.5%-0.1 pts66OVERFIT
WEC+1652.3%+23656.8%-22004.4%before 199383MARGINAL
WELL+474.7%+58774.1%-58299.5%before 199372OVERFIT
WFC+2057.1%+63452.2%-61395.1%before 199383OVERFIT
WM+1974.7%+8471.2%-6496.5%before 199374MARGINAL
WMB-26.9%+11974.1%-12001.0%before 199376OVERFIT
WSM+258.9%+69865.8%-69606.8%before 199372OVERFIT
WST+200.6%+79208.6%-79008.0%before 199390OVERFIT
WTW+304.3%+1181.6%-877.4%-3.7 pts50OVERFIT
WY+1126.4%+1781.4%-655.0%before 1993101OVERFIT
WYNN-63.3%+1217.6%-1280.9%-15.5 pts35OVERFIT
XOM+8390.0%+183657.9%-175267.9%before 1993104OVERFIT
XYL+115.6%+455.0%-339.4%-9.9 pts28INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+40.1%+527.5%-487.5%-11.5 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
YUM+374.3%+4282.5%-3908.2%-3.8 pts40OVERFIT
ZBH+69.2%+292.2%-223.0%-7.5 pts49OVERFIT
ZBRA+1043.7%+8617.7%-7574.0%before 199374MARGINAL
ZTS+14.5%+179.3%-164.8%-13.6 pts21INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 4 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD-34.3%-3.1%-31.1%-12.9 pts30OVERFIT
GBP/USD-20.8%-21.2%+0.4%-12.0 pts38OVERFIT
USD/JPY+10.7%+40.2%-29.6%-9.9 pts57OVERFIT
USD/MXN+0.5%+49.9%-49.5%-11.0 pts35OVERFIT
AUD/USD+0.7%-6.6%+7.4%-11.2 pts38OVERFIT
USD/CAD-3.9%+1.7%-5.6%-11.3 pts39OVERFIT
USD/CHF-15.3%-41.4%+26.1%-11.9 pts40OVERFIT
NZD/USD+38.7%-8.1%+46.8%-9.6 pts45OVERFIT

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin+468.4%+17075.3%-16606.9%-3.2 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin-64.7%+859.3%-924.0%-19.6 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1347.4%-1241.0%-1092.4%-924.0%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-30.8%-15.3%-1.0%-9.6%-31.1%
GBP/USD-22.6%-9.1%+8.2%+24.6%+0.4%
USD/JPY-65.2%-61.0%-35.5%-10.5%-29.6%
AUD/USD+7.4%
USD/CAD-33.0%-19.6%-14.9%+20.8%-5.6%
USD/CHF-0.4%-10.6%+11.4%+8.9%+26.1%
NZD/USD+35.6%+30.3%-8.5%+10.6%+46.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)-432.2%-349.9%-262.3%-239.3%-2731.0%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-681.0%-592.7%-528.1%-414.7%-1464.3%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-271.7%-247.8%-136.2%-165.6%-655.6%
Emergentes (EEM)-240.5%-198.2%-121.5%-89.9%-730.5%
Oro (GLD)-376.3%-329.3%-245.6%-249.4%-725.7%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-79.2%-45.0%-14.2%-12.3%-99.7%
AAPL-1323.0%-1239.0%-1178.7%-1101.7%-322810.6%
AMGN-285.7%-313.5%-281.1%-176.7%-179458.1%
AMZN-810.4%-772.7%-406.4%-160.7%-264497.3%
AXP-543.6%-512.4%-311.5%-251.4%-25888.7%
BA-151.8%-148.0%-118.9%-28.2%-108118.8%
CAT-1480.5%-1412.7%-1150.5%-1293.7%-168797.3%
CRM-263.8%-256.8%-217.1%-1.2%-5537.4%
CSCO-477.9%-436.1%-185.4%-311.2%-222929.7%
CVX-330.8%-124.2%-205.4%-130.6%-61450.4%
DIS-95.3%-46.9%-35.5%-41.0%-188447.6%
GOOGL-883.9%-791.9%-619.2%-748.4%-13204.0%
GS-680.6%-611.4%-552.0%-387.6%-437.6%
HD-279.5%-214.1%-202.8%-181.5%-1984344.9%
HON-221.4%-194.2%-140.9%-64.3%-15947.6%
IBM-273.6%-254.6%-138.2%-98.7%-14428.8%
JNJ-305.2%-241.3%-213.9%-133.1%-439919.6%
JPM-660.2%-597.4%-493.3%-428.5%-32927.5%
KO-246.5%-150.4%-63.9%-127.7%-198808.7%
MCD-247.3%-179.5%-75.3%-121.6%-233094.5%
MMM-174.4%-115.7%-84.7%-79.6%-26155.4%
MRK-343.0%-273.3%-159.0%-97.0%-233039.9%
MSFT-994.6%-782.4%-488.4%-878.8%-856193.7%
NKE-54.6%-39.4%-3.7%+9.5%-31486.1%
NVDA-27469.5%-27369.3%-26783.6%-26699.8%-587567.3%
PG-206.8%-90.8%-35.4%-94.0%-57106.2%
SHW-369.1%-282.0%-229.7%-247.7%-204248.9%
TRV-357.8%-268.8%-157.4%-191.9%-11156.5%
UNH-369.5%-302.9%-267.2%-95.7%-351719.4%
V-443.8%-347.7%-238.9%-138.3%-2515.0%
WMT-530.6%-429.4%-382.7%-403.7%-902106.2%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-266.8%-262.5%-229.3%-36.8%-142509.4%
ADI-717.2%-330.4%-220.7%-75.5%-76575.4%
ADP-353.5%-307.9%-283.4%-180.1%-68042.2%
ADSK-390.5%-364.4%-61.2%-137.2%-55883.1%
AEP-254.3%-189.5%-186.8%-51.6%-12166.6%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-236.8%-115.0%-33.8%+248.0%-2124.6%
AMAT-2732.3%-2189.7%-2057.2%-2445.5%-664849.7%
AMD-16758.9%-16720.5%-15253.6%-16385.8%-14266.5%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2102.0%-2016.2%-800.4%-1940.2%-96249.8%
AVGO-3293.8%-3275.6%-1974.7%-2655.2%-31585.9%
AXON-3548.3%-3526.3%-3256.4%-3145.7%-123079.0%
BKNG-373.0%-333.0%-245.7%+199.8%-914.0%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-687.1%
CCEP-364.6%-236.8%-242.3%-202.0%-6592.1%
CDNS-1593.9%-1412.4%-1057.4%-1330.5%-15652.1%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-61.6%+131.6%+88.4%-18.2%-46447.0%
COST-651.8%-584.7%-527.1%-487.7%-11348.8%
CPRT-621.0%-563.6%-597.0%-498.8%-16313.3%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-544.1%-383.6%-409.0%-443.1%-37810.6%
CTAS-946.8%-913.1%-781.2%-873.8%-122042.7%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-436.2%-417.5%-306.7%-245.3%-2734.5%
EAn/a
EXC-274.2%-157.5%+9.5%-74.1%-17338.8%
FANG-381.7%-295.2%-181.1%-107.5%-1163.6%
FAST-584.4%-420.4%-487.4%-372.3%-234764.8%
FERn/an/an/an/a-550.2%
FTNT-2527.0%-2290.4%-2314.0%-2410.5%-9912.4%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-164.1%-120.7%+7.3%+8.5%-28878.3%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-687.2%-558.2%-575.2%-610.5%-57883.6%
INTC-313.7%-260.6%-153.8%-69.1%-43517.1%
INTU-391.2%-251.0%-158.7%-264.5%-14782.1%
ISRG-572.7%-375.6%-415.9%-366.3%-17784.2%
KHC-4.0%-0.7%+46.0%+6.0%+23.2%
KLAC-3007.0%-2683.2%-1599.7%-2480.0%-287313.4%
LINn/an/an/an/a-9050.8%
LITE-3906.4%-3803.2%-1190.3%-3678.7%-3269.1%
LRCX-4416.4%-4211.0%-3608.2%-3374.7%-159566.3%
MAR-559.1%-481.2%-436.1%-180.9%-2399.0%
MCHP-373.1%-270.1%-236.0%+52.3%-32240.3%
MDLZ-138.0%-81.0%-23.9%+39.8%-155.1%
MELI-1698.6%-1533.3%-1468.0%-1057.8%-6501.3%
META-536.8%-425.5%-99.1%-380.6%-1281.0%
MNST-89.1%+89.8%-10.0%-19.7%-61319.2%
MPWR-2145.1%-1776.7%-1680.4%-1232.5%-11846.6%
MRVL-2600.9%-2288.9%-1938.9%-2258.5%-1225.9%
MSTR-729.9%-729.6%-646.9%-490.2%-1233.6%
MU-6627.9%-6545.1%-5959.4%-6043.5%-70954.9%
NFLX-630.2%-684.7%-446.2%-644.8%-67616.9%
NXPI-255.5%-216.8%+8.4%-67.2%-1150.7%
ODFL-1008.1%-867.2%-870.6%-682.7%-35574.9%
ORLY-445.9%-338.9%-394.5%-271.6%-53901.3%
PANW-1232.7%-1142.3%-1082.1%-559.4%-3580.4%
PCAR-441.3%-188.4%-395.1%-204.5%-53075.5%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-142.2%-22.7%-90.3%-0.2%-35309.5%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-112.8%-90.4%-24.8%-107.0%+76.0%
QCOM-404.1%-250.2%-306.3%-121.5%-47157.2%
REGN-95.6%-53.2%+26.2%-48.3%-1750.7%
ROP-155.4%-130.9%-112.5%-58.2%-25207.2%
ROST-404.4%-279.6%-164.8%-134.3%-55026.1%
SBUX-181.7%-3.3%-55.0%-35.7%-41455.5%
SHOP-5904.8%-5846.5%-4135.6%-5574.5%-8390.9%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-922.3%-765.4%-766.3%-674.2%+137.8%
STX-3572.7%-3325.8%-3040.1%-3552.7%-15639.3%
TER-1817.7%-1663.7%-1588.7%-1374.7%-30370.3%
TMUS-277.2%-300.6%-274.1%-255.7%-333.3%
TRI-329.7%-217.7%-260.2%-172.8%-517.3%
TSLA-2338.1%-2328.6%-2307.3%-2197.8%-21386.5%
TTWO-408.5%+81.0%-271.7%-534.5%-4740.5%
TXN-530.0%-489.7%-334.0%-443.2%-36191.7%
VRTX-350.6%-295.2%+246.9%-2.6%-9799.0%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-275.1%
WDAY-213.8%-113.6%-19.4%-81.7%-225.2%
WDC-1143.7%-1111.2%-551.8%-1084.6%-66108.8%
XEL-254.8%-191.8%-189.3%-54.2%-6639.8%
KDP-222.6%-75.4%-106.0%-83.5%-920.1%
USD/MXN-30.8%-34.2%-5.5%+6.5%-49.5%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18083.3%-18065.2%-17962.6%-16606.9%
Ethern/a

26 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 28 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
period 14, lower 30, upper 70350.0%0.11-55.2%-2731.0%
period 14, lower 25, upper 75350.0%0.11-55.2%-2731.0%
period 14, lower 35, upper 65350.0%0.11-55.2%-2731.0%
period 10, lower 30, upper 70492.3%0.16-58.1%-2588.7%
period 21, lower 30, upper 70141.8%-0.04-58.9%-2939.2%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.84 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+26.8% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+254.9% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.9452.

Deflated Sharpe 0.8397 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 4941ce415f47 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 38 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70): works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 4941ce415f47. https://finaxion.app/en/research/rsi-14-oversold

Reproduce it with your own strategy