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Finaxion Research · RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) work on MTD?

RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) does not beat buy-and-hold on MTD: -4.0 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
×34
Buy and hold
×94
CAGR
13.1%
Sharpe
0.49
Max drawdown
-48.5%
Trades
62
Out of sample
partly
Years
29
1×10×100×114×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyMTD

Findings

  1. RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) does not beat buy-and-hold on MTD: -4.0 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +3.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×34 versus ×94 for buy-and-hold, with 62 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -48.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #9 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 4941ce415f47.

Exactly what was tested

RSI(14) crosses below 30 → entry. RSI(14) crosses above 70 → exit. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MTD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MTD → · Full page for RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) work on MTD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 4941ce415f47. https://finaxion.app/en/research/rsi-14-oversold/mtd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.