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Finaxion Research · RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) work on CPRT?

RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) does not beat buy-and-hold on CPRT: -5.0 points a year over 32 years.

Total return
×53
Buy and hold
×217
CAGR
13.1%
Sharpe
0.46
Max drawdown
-56.1%
Trades
72
Out of sample
overfit
Years
32
1×10×100×19951998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyCPRT

Findings

  1. RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) does not beat buy-and-hold on CPRT: -5.0 points a year over 32 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +2.1 points a year.
  3. Total return ×53 versus ×217 for buy-and-hold, with 72 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -56.1%.
  6. It beat before 2010 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #13 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 4941ce415f47.

Exactly what was tested

RSI(14) crosses below 30 → entry. RSI(14) crosses above 70 → exit. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding CPRT over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on CPRT → · Full page for RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) work on CPRT?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 4941ce415f47. https://finaxion.app/en/research/rsi-14-oversold/cprt

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.