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Finaxion Research · “Sell in May and go away” · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does “Sell in May and go away” work on FCX?

“Sell in May and go away” beats buy-and-hold on FCX by +2.9 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
×27
Buy and hold
×12
CAGR
11.1%
Sharpe
0.47
Max drawdown
-83.6%
Trades
62
Out of sample
—
Years
31
1×10×31×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyFCX

Findings

  1. “Sell in May and go away” beats buy-and-hold on FCX by +2.9 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +0.5 points a year.
  3. Total return ×27 versus ×12 for buy-and-hold, with 62 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -83.6%.
  5. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2011).
  6. It ranks #67 of 232 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0b534dd04389.

Exactly what was tested

Long from the first trading day of November to the last of April; cash from May to October. Calendar rules: simulated with our seasonal engine, same costs as everything else.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FCX over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FCX → · Full page for “Sell in May and go away” →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does “Sell in May and go away” work on FCX?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0b534dd04389. https://finaxion.app/en/research/sell-in-may/fcx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.