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Finaxion Research · “Sell in May and go away” · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does “Sell in May and go away” work on FDS?

“Sell in May and go away” does not beat buy-and-hold on FDS: -8.5 points a year over 30 years.

Total return
838.8%
Buy and hold
×92
CAGR
7.7%
Sharpe
0.43
Max drawdown
-48.4%
Trades
60
Out of sample
overfit
Years
30
1×10×100×140×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyFDS

Findings

  1. “Sell in May and go away” does not beat buy-and-hold on FDS: -8.5 points a year over 30 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -2.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +838.8% versus ×92 for buy-and-hold, with 60 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -48.4%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #114 of 232 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0b534dd04389.

Exactly what was tested

Long from the first trading day of November to the last of April; cash from May to October. Calendar rules: simulated with our seasonal engine, same costs as everything else.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FDS over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FDS → · Full page for “Sell in May and go away” →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does “Sell in May and go away” work on FDS?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0b534dd04389. https://finaxion.app/en/research/sell-in-may/fds

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.