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Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · cryptocurrencies · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on BTC/USD?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on BTC/USD: -28.1 points a year over 12 years.

Total return
×53
Buy and hold
×172
CAGR
25.7%
Sharpe
0.65
Max drawdown
-76.9%
Trades
43
Out of sample
—
Years
12
1×10×100×201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyBTC/USD

Findings

  1. Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on BTC/USD: -28.1 points a year over 12 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +11.9 points a year.
  3. Total return ×53 versus ×172 for buy-and-hold, with 43 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -76.9%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2020).
  6. It ranks #7 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding BTC/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on BTC/USD → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on BTC/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/btc-usd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.