Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour hold out of sample?

Of the 35 daily markets where it beats, 21 hold out of sample (60%).

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour depend on exact parameters?

No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.

What is the best market for Supertrend: the line that changes colour?

Its best daily market is AXON: +27.7 points a year over the S&P 500 across 25 years, 43 trades.

What is the worst market for Supertrend: the line that changes colour?

Its worst daily market is NCLH: -22.4 points a year against the S&P 500.

FINAXIONResearch

Finaxion Research · Trend following · Updated 2026-09-10

Supertrend: the line that changes colour

Works in few markets

Its ground: forex, on 1-hour, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 55 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten

35 / 489

Vs. index

-4.9 pts/yr

Total return

590.9%

Sharpe

0.25

Max drawdown

-18.0%

Trades

StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Supertrend: the line that changes colour?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold mostly on forex pairs: 14 of 40 markets (35%). It does worst on single stocks: it beats in 38 of 904. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, asset by asset in 53 of 958.

Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold mostly on forex pairs: 14 of 40 markets (35%).
It does worst on single stocks: it beats in 38 of 904.
It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, asset by asset in 53 of 958.
Of the 35 daily markets where it beats, 21 hold out of sample (60%).
No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
Its best daily market is AXON: +27.7 points a year over the S&P 500 across 25 years, 43 trades.
Its worst daily market is NCLH: -22.4 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

The promise

“When the line turns green, buy; when it turns red, sell. TikTok’s favourite indicator.”

Exactly what we tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

Why

Its ground: forex, on 1-hour, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 55 of 961 combinations.
Daily, it beats buy-and-hold in 35 of 489 markets: PORTFOLIO_NDX, PORTFOLIO_SPX, AXON, BKNG, KHC, MSTR, MU, PYPL, STX, AKAM, ALGN, BBY, BLDR, BSX, C, CCI, CIEN, CMS, DECK, ECHO, EQR, GLW, LULU, LVS, NWS, PCG, PSKY, RCL, EURUSD=X, GBPUSD=X, USDJPY=X, USDMXN=X, AUDUSD=X, USDCAD=X, USDCHF=X.
Indices and ETFs: 0 of 6.
Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions): 0 of 1.
Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions): 1 of 1.
Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions): 1 of 1.
Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100): 26 of 470.
Forex: 7 of 8.
Crypto: 0 of 2.
Out of sample without overfitting in 21 of the 35 markets it beats.
Neighbouring parameter sets that also beat (on the index): 0%.

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)	+590.9%	+3081.0%	-2490.1%	-4.9 pts	27	OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)	+4.6%	+1565.8%	-1561.2%	-8.4 pts	37	OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)	+417.1%	+801.9%	-384.7%	-2.2 pts	21	OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)	+106.3%	+830.9%	-724.7%	-8.5 pts	71	OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)	+558.0%	+820.3%	-262.2%	-1.9 pts	49	OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)	+62.4%	+131.2%	-68.8%	-9.2 pts	54	OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)	+2073.3%	+3081.0%	-1007.7%	-1.2 pts	187	—

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)	+59200.8%	+3081.0%	+56119.7%	+10.1 pts	518	—

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)	+15786.6%	+3081.0%	+12705.6%	+5.5 pts	2125	—

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 26 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 54 / 216

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
AAPL	+105324.0%	+322813.1%	-217489.0%	before 1993	86	MARGINAL
AMGN	+16902.7%	+187272.6%	-170369.9%	before 1993	73	OVERFIT
AMZN	+153715.4%	+265196.1%	-111480.7%	+18.8 pts	53	GENERALIZED
AXP	+22.0%	+27029.4%	-27007.3%	before 1993	134	OVERFIT
BA	+3830.6%	+108724.7%	-104894.1%	before 1993	132	OVERFIT
CAT	+20230.9%	+172708.3%	-152477.3%	before 1993	155	MARGINAL
CRM	+749.1%	+5992.9%	-5243.8%	-0.8 pts	41	OVERFIT
CSCO	+37341.3%	+222956.6%	-185615.3%	before 1993	41	MARGINAL
CVX	+440.8%	+68037.6%	-67596.9%	before 1993	109	OVERFIT
DIS	+71390.1%	+189847.3%	-118457.2%	before 1993	139	OVERFIT
GOOGL	+1495.7%	+13534.3%	-12038.6%	+2.2 pts	51	OVERFIT
GS	+283.9%	+2027.1%	-1743.2%	-3.4 pts	49	OVERFIT
HD	+1757.0%	+1985758.9%	-1984001.9%	before 1993	105	OVERFIT
HON	+51.0%	+21058.8%	-21007.8%	before 1993	115	OVERFIT
IBM	+495.4%	+16203.8%	-15708.4%	before 1993	140	OVERFIT
JNJ	+6660.5%	+445196.6%	-438536.1%	before 1993	145	OVERFIT
JPM	+192.3%	+34522.5%	-34330.1%	before 1993	103	OVERFIT
KO	+11770.0%	+199349.6%	-187579.6%	before 1993	127	MARGINAL
MCD	+20634.1%	+236707.0%	-216072.9%	before 1993	92	MARGINAL
MMM	+2427.5%	+31160.0%	-28732.5%	before 1993	111	OVERFIT
MRK	+8765.1%	+233375.1%	-224610.0%	before 1993	111	MARGINAL
MSFT	+5864.7%	+859506.0%	-853641.2%	before 1993	59	OVERFIT
NKE	+2941.2%	+32003.7%	-29062.5%	before 1993	90	OVERFIT
NVDA	+57955.1%	+587720.8%	-529765.7%	+17.2 pts	41	OVERFIT
PG	+1168.2%	+59706.6%	-58538.5%	before 1993	110	OVERFIT
SHW	+3453.2%	+231766.6%	-228313.3%	before 1993	70	MARGINAL
TRV	+354.8%	+12287.7%	-11932.9%	before 1993	133	OVERFIT
UNH	+13049.0%	+353381.4%	-340332.4%	before 1993	79	MARGINAL
V	+230.5%	+2961.1%	-2730.7%	-5.4 pts	23	INCONCLUSIVE
WMT	+31049.0%	+915365.3%	-884316.4%	before 1993	118	MARGINAL
ABNB	n/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE	+1755.8%	+147731.1%	-145975.3%	before 1993	74	MARGINAL
ADI	+1123.3%	+81534.0%	-80410.7%	before 1993	99	OVERFIT
ADP	+2148.4%	+74205.9%	-72057.5%	before 1993	71	MARGINAL
ADSK	+766.2%	+58084.6%	-57318.3%	before 1993	85	OVERFIT
AEP	+1243.2%	+13797.6%	-12554.5%	before 1993	83	OVERFIT
ALAB	n/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY	+127.6%	+3338.4%	-3210.8%	-7.2 pts	34	OVERFIT
AMAT	+15612.3%	+664974.8%	-649362.5%	before 1993	105	OVERFIT
AMD	+3809.0%	+14863.3%	-11054.3%	before 1993	91	OVERFIT
APP	n/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARM	n/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML	+15813.1%	+96277.5%	-80464.3%	+6.5 pts	77	MARGINAL
AVGO	+3122.8%	+32512.1%	-29389.3%	+7.9 pts	34	INCONCLUSIVE
AXON	+287310.6%	+123065.2%	+164245.4%	+27.7 pts	43	OVERFIT
BKNG	+4283.9%	+922.2%	+3361.7%	+6.2 pts	46	OVERFIT
BKR	-11.1%	+933.9%	-944.9%	before 1993	59	OVERFIT
CCEP	+270.0%	+7081.8%	-6811.9%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
CDNS	+1322.2%	+16839.0%	-15516.8%	before 1993	74	MARGINAL
CEG	n/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA	+490.9%	+47049.9%	-46559.0%	before 1993	75	OVERFIT
COST	+829.3%	+12800.7%	-11971.4%	before 1993	70	OVERFIT
CPRT	+4623.1%	+21554.9%	-16931.9%	+1.7 pts	49	OVERFIT
CRWD	n/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX	+1220.9%	+40426.1%	-39205.2%	before 1993	77	MARGINAL
CTAS	+3170.5%	+123411.3%	-120240.8%	before 1993	69	MARGINAL
DASH	n/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOG	n/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM	+453.2%	+3002.6%	-2549.3%	-2.9 pts	49	OVERFIT
EA	n/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC	+1434.8%	+17730.6%	-16295.8%	before 1993	66	OVERFIT
FANG	+237.9%	+1406.8%	-1168.9%	-5.6 pts	16	INCONCLUSIVE
FAST	+991.8%	+262350.7%	-261358.8%	before 1993	63	MARGINAL
FER	-4.6%	+593.7%	-598.3%	-15.1 pts	128	INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT	+2247.6%	+10184.6%	-7937.0%	+6.5 pts	29	INCONCLUSIVE
GEHC	n/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD	+7518.8%	+33594.8%	-26076.0%	before 1993	33	OVERFIT
HONA	n/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX	+5077.1%	+58789.5%	-53712.4%	before 1993	49	MARGINAL
INTC	+4822.6%	+49216.9%	-44394.3%	before 1993	83	MARGINAL
INTU	+476.3%	+15430.2%	-14953.9%	-5.4 pts	50	OVERFIT
ISRG	+3894.0%	+18484.9%	-14590.9%	+6.7 pts	43	MARGINAL
KDP	+411.4%	+1090.2%	-678.9%	-2.4 pts	23	INCONCLUSIVE
KHC	-37.2%	-42.2%	+5.0%	-18.4 pts	17	INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC	+1825.3%	+289399.1%	-287573.8%	before 1993	92	MARGINAL
LIN	+660.4%	+10777.0%	-10116.6%	before 1993	34	OVERFIT
LITE	+1824.6%	+5280.9%	-3456.4%	+16.4 pts	19	INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX	+1724.8%	+159814.6%	-158089.8%	before 1993	65	OVERFIT
MAR	+840.5%	+2539.5%	-1699.0%	-0.7 pts	45	OVERFIT
MCHP	+154.2%	+41961.5%	-41807.3%	-8.0 pts	43	OVERFIT
MDLZ	+125.7%	+461.4%	-335.7%	-6.1 pts	35	OVERFIT
MELI	+558.2%	+6911.0%	-6352.8%	-0.8 pts	24	INCONCLUSIVE
META	+657.9%	+1410.2%	-752.4%	+0.0 pts	30	INCONCLUSIVE
MNST	+11860.0%	+61968.9%	-50108.9%	before 1993	50	OVERFIT
MPWR	+241.8%	+15002.1%	-14760.3%	-5.2 pts	29	MARGINAL
MRVL	+1013.9%	+1645.0%	-631.2%	+1.2 pts	37	OVERFIT
MSTR	+1892.6%	+1158.6%	+734.0%	+2.2 pts	53	OVERFIT
MU	+107826.3%	+70877.8%	+36948.5%	before 1993	71	OVERFIT
NFLX	+54867.4%	+67643.2%	-12775.8%	+19.4 pts	50	MARGINAL
NXPI	-5.0%	+1721.2%	-1726.2%	-15.0 pts	27	INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL	+148.0%	+36444.7%	-36296.7%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
ORLY	+706.0%	+55255.7%	-54549.7%	-4.5 pts	53	OVERFIT
PANW	+1155.1%	+4215.4%	-3060.3%	+4.7 pts	19	INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR	+15692.6%	+57106.4%	-41413.8%	before 1993	89	OVERFIT
PDD	n/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP	+2127.0%	+37760.7%	-35633.7%	before 1993	99	MARGINAL
PLTR	n/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL	+206.1%	+44.7%	+161.4%	-3.8 pts	12	INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM	+2360.1%	+50430.1%	-48070.0%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
REGN	+276.2%	+3718.3%	-3442.1%	before 1993	57	MARGINAL
ROP	+3661.3%	+26003.6%	-22342.3%	before 1993	42	GENERALIZED
ROST	+7441.8%	+55801.1%	-48359.4%	before 1993	60	MARGINAL
SBUX	+15064.3%	+43019.5%	-27955.2%	before 1993	47	GENERALIZED
SHOP	+699.6%	+8568.8%	-7869.2%	+6.4 pts	17	INCONCLUSIVE
SNDK	n/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS	-68.6%	+5482.1%	-5550.7%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
STX	+19240.1%	+15614.6%	+3625.5%	+13.5 pts	43	MARGINAL
TER	+497.6%	+31309.8%	-30812.2%	before 1993	150	OVERFIT
TMUS	+48.0%	+318.0%	-269.9%	-8.8 pts	26	INCONCLUSIVE
TRI	+131.8%	+578.4%	-446.6%	-7.1 pts	34	OVERFIT
TSLA	+1295.5%	+23002.8%	-21707.2%	+2.6 pts	32	INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO	-2.9%	+5509.7%	-5512.6%	-10.2 pts	39	OVERFIT
TXN	+511.9%	+38040.6%	-37528.8%	before 1993	105	OVERFIT
VRTX	+653.4%	+12000.4%	-11347.0%	before 1993	57	MARGINAL
WBD	+77.8%	+302.2%	-224.3%	-8.4 pts	29	OVERFIT
WDAY	+95.0%	+305.5%	-210.6%	-9.9 pts	22	INCONCLUSIVE
WDC	+10468.6%	+66202.2%	-55733.6%	before 1993	103	MARGINAL
XEL	+487.5%	+7388.9%	-6901.4%	before 1993	82	OVERFIT
A	-46.0%	+486.3%	-532.3%	-10.7 pts	53	OVERFIT
ABBV	+167.8%	+1156.0%	-988.2%	-7.3 pts	23	INCONCLUSIVE
ABT	+675.5%	+62056.2%	-61380.7%	before 1993	76	OVERFIT
ACGL	+506.0%	+4268.0%	-3762.0%	-4.5 pts	47	OVERFIT
ACN	+393.5%	+1726.5%	-1333.0%	-3.0 pts	37	OVERFIT
ADM	+841.0%	+9265.6%	-8424.6%	before 1993	71	OVERFIT
AEE	+262.2%	+813.9%	-551.8%	-4.7 pts	33	OVERFIT
AES	+236.6%	+647.5%	-410.9%	before 1993	55	OVERFIT
AFL	+1106.2%	+205848.4%	-204742.2%	before 1993	83	MARGINAL
AIG	+330.3%	+468.3%	-138.0%	before 1993	194	OVERFIT
AIZ	+10.6%	+1585.5%	-1574.9%	-10.4 pts	35	OVERFIT
AJG	+2884.0%	+41899.5%	-39015.6%	before 1993	119	GENERALIZED
AKAM	+1609.4%	-25.2%	+1634.6%	+2.7 pts	45	OVERFIT
ALB	+161.0%	+3091.3%	-2930.4%	-7.9 pts	54	MARGINAL
ALGN	+1828.2%	+846.9%	+981.3%	+3.4 pts	41	MARGINAL
ALL	+417.1%	+3674.2%	-3257.1%	-5.8 pts	45	OVERFIT
ALLE	+161.2%	+265.9%	-104.7%	-6.1 pts	15	INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR	+3.5%	+100.6%	-97.1%	-14.8 pts	76	INCONCLUSIVE
AME	+1150.3%	+25325.0%	-24174.7%	before 1993	74	OVERFIT
AMP	+644.0%	+2154.1%	-1510.1%	-1.1 pts	21	OVERFIT
AMT	+155.2%	+1310.2%	-1154.9%	-5.7 pts	41	OVERFIT
ANET	+285.6%	+5592.8%	-5307.2%	-2.0 pts	27	INCONCLUSIVE
AON	+445.1%	+29815.0%	-29369.9%	before 1993	117	OVERFIT
AOS	+574.1%	+13924.9%	-13350.8%	before 1993	158	MARGINAL
APA	-37.8%	+2417.2%	-2455.0%	before 1993	89	OVERFIT
APD	+1274.4%	+20722.2%	-19447.8%	before 1993	97	OVERFIT
APH	+12580.0%	+146951.6%	-134371.6%	before 1993	81	MARGINAL
APO	+326.8%	+1845.9%	-1519.1%	-4.1 pts	20	INCONCLUSIVE
APTV	-19.3%	+174.0%	-193.2%	-16.7 pts	24	INCONCLUSIVE
ARE	+13.0%	+624.3%	-611.2%	-9.2 pts	50	OVERFIT
ARES	+36.8%	+1191.9%	-1155.1%	-11.4 pts	17	INCONCLUSIVE
ATO	+107.4%	+13696.4%	-13589.0%	before 1993	74	OVERFIT
AVB	+29.2%	+42.3%	-13.2%	-12.6 pts	8	INCONCLUSIVE
AVY	+1093.6%	+8544.4%	-7450.8%	before 1993	134	OVERFIT
AWK	+63.6%	+950.9%	-887.3%	-9.1 pts	18	INCONCLUSIVE
AZO	+339.2%	+40631.8%	-40292.6%	before 1993	64	OVERFIT
BAC	+680.5%	+4053.1%	-3372.6%	before 1993	129	MARGINAL
BALL	+154.0%	+49568.6%	-49414.6%	before 1993	136	OVERFIT
BAX	+64.1%	+1778.4%	-1714.3%	before 1993	59	OVERFIT
BBY	+122240.4%	+89506.6%	+32733.8%	before 1993	81	MARGINAL
BDX	+190.2%	+21440.4%	-21250.2%	before 1993	117	OVERFIT
BEN	+2916.9%	+130378.8%	-127461.9%	before 1993	109	MARGINAL
BF-B	+737.8%	+14873.5%	-14135.7%	before 1993	115	OVERFIT
BG	+277.0%	+1105.5%	-828.6%	-4.1 pts	42	OVERFIT
BIIB	+852.8%	+6832.8%	-5980.0%	before 1993	41	OVERFIT
BLDR	+420.6%	+393.7%	+26.9%	-3.0 pts	24	OVERFIT
BLK	+830.8%	+13724.5%	-12893.7%	-0.1 pts	45	MARGINAL
BMY	+1687.5%	+23662.6%	-21975.1%	before 1993	93	OVERFIT
BNY	+1535.2%	+32230.3%	-30695.1%	before 1993	141	OVERFIT
BR	+59.3%	+1234.2%	-1174.9%	-8.6 pts	26	INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B	+213.5%	+2072.5%	-1859.0%	-6.5 pts	55	OVERFIT
BRO	+3474.7%	+76212.8%	-72738.0%	before 1993	85	MARGINAL
BSX	+2067.2%	+1028.2%	+1039.0%	before 1993	46	GENERALIZED
BX	+122.6%	+1023.3%	-900.7%	-6.6 pts	33	INCONCLUSIVE
BXP	+682.5%	+888.9%	-206.5%	-2.2 pts	51	OVERFIT
C	+2767.6%	+1897.9%	+869.7%	before 1993	87	OVERFIT
CAH	+2771.7%	+39284.8%	-36513.1%	before 1993	81	OVERFIT
CARR	n/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY	+3874.5%	+80461.2%	-76586.8%	before 1993	63	MARGINAL
CB	+128.2%	+6587.6%	-6459.4%	-8.3 pts	73	OVERFIT
CBOE	+467.6%	+1060.1%	-592.5%	-3.3 pts	14	INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE	+1440.5%	+2283.8%	-843.3%	+2.2 pts	34	OVERFIT
CCI	+1571.2%	+899.9%	+671.3%	+1.6 pts	40	OVERFIT
CCL	+407.4%	+1154.4%	-747.0%	before 1993	83	OVERFIT
CDW	+37.0%	+858.2%	-821.2%	-12.1 pts	29	INCONCLUSIVE
CF	+2380.5%	+5815.9%	-3435.4%	+5.5 pts	25	OVERFIT
CFG	+134.8%	+349.9%	-215.1%	-6.4 pts	17	INCONCLUSIVE
CHD	+683.7%	+93736.5%	-93052.8%	before 1993	74	OVERFIT
CHRW	+402.6%	+4307.6%	-3905.0%	-3.6 pts	34	OVERFIT
CHTR	+314.3%	+335.5%	-21.3%	-5.2 pts	26	INCONCLUSIVE
CI	+1106.5%	+12980.8%	-11874.3%	before 1993	94	OVERFIT
CIEN	+486.0%	+195.6%	+290.4%	-3.7 pts	53	MARGINAL
CINF	+1777.8%	+41545.9%	-39768.1%	before 1993	81	MARGINAL
CL	+124.8%	+20919.0%	-20794.2%	before 1993	88	OVERFIT
CLX	+135.6%	+6184.2%	-6048.6%	before 1993	86	OVERFIT
CME	+2503.9%	+6884.2%	-4380.3%	+3.4 pts	30	OVERFIT
CMG	+3722.3%	+4221.6%	-499.3%	+8.3 pts	35	OVERFIT
CMI	+7729.8%	+28968.2%	-21238.5%	before 1993	158	OVERFIT
CMS	+4135.7%	+630.8%	+3504.9%	before 1993	59	OVERFIT
CNC	+443.3%	+4388.8%	-3945.6%	-3.0 pts	51	OVERFIT
CNP	+2805.7%	+13998.0%	-11192.3%	before 1993	102	OVERFIT
COF	+1241.5%	+5724.6%	-4483.1%	-2.6 pts	60	MARGINAL
COHR	+7382.1%	+68288.9%	-60906.8%	before 1993	73	OVERFIT
COIN	n/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO	+727.7%	+879.8%	-152.2%	before 1993	68	OVERFIT
COP	+424.6%	+13561.7%	-13137.0%	before 1993	71	OVERFIT
COR	+1421.0%	+17062.1%	-15641.0%	-1.9 pts	60	OVERFIT
CPAY	+27.5%	+1383.7%	-1356.2%	-12.7 pts	33	INCONCLUSIVE
CPT	+989.8%	+2453.9%	-1464.1%	-3.4 pts	61	MARGINAL
CRH	+604.0%	+7617.9%	-7013.9%	before 1993	130	OVERFIT
CRL	-26.4%	+1210.2%	-1236.6%	-9.7 pts	53	OVERFIT
CSGP	+2802.6%	+3390.6%	-588.0%	+3.9 pts	40	MARGINAL
CTSH	+1534.8%	+35498.3%	-33963.4%	+1.5 pts	49	OVERFIT
CTVA	n/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNA	n/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS	+4535.4%	+15658.6%	-11123.3%	before 1993	115	MARGINAL
D	+674.7%	+17762.4%	-17087.7%	before 1993	65	MARGINAL
DAL	+173.6%	+339.1%	-165.5%	-5.5 pts	22	INCONCLUSIVE
DD	+3326.3%	+10113.6%	-6787.4%	before 1993	85	OVERFIT
DE	+11457.0%	+101089.1%	-89632.0%	before 1993	97	MARGINAL
DECK	+7361.2%	+7024.7%	+336.5%	+3.2 pts	51	MARGINAL
DELL	+820.7%	+4059.8%	-3239.0%	+9.7 pts	15	INCONCLUSIVE
DG	-9.1%	+550.3%	-559.3%	-14.9 pts	21	INCONCLUSIVE
DGX	+459.4%	+9626.0%	-9166.5%	-4.1 pts	47	OVERFIT
DHI	+1753.1%	+13111.0%	-11357.9%	before 1993	43	MARGINAL
DHR	+1036.0%	+483557.2%	-482521.3%	before 1993	109	OVERFIT
DLR	+583.5%	+3540.7%	-2957.2%	-2.0 pts	29	OVERFIT
DLTR	+267.8%	+10731.5%	-10463.7%	-6.9 pts	55	OVERFIT
DOC	+1050.8%	+6136.8%	-5086.0%	before 1993	49	OVERFIT
DOV	+4371.8%	+29264.8%	-24893.1%	before 1993	79	MARGINAL
DOW	n/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ	+555.8%	+5638.6%	-5082.7%	-2.2 pts	36	OVERFIT
DRI	+372.4%	+6998.7%	-6626.3%	-5.8 pts	49	MARGINAL
DTE	+3928.0%	+35264.3%	-31336.3%	before 1993	81	OVERFIT
DUK	+1381.1%	+16239.0%	-14857.9%	before 1993	82	MARGINAL
DVA	+19.6%	+4219.3%	-4199.7%	-10.0 pts	70	OVERFIT
DVN	+65.7%	+1411.9%	-1346.2%	before 1993	108	OVERFIT
EBAY	+1535.3%	+14035.1%	-12499.8%	+1.3 pts	31	OVERFIT
ECHO	+449.2%	+227.3%	+221.9%	-1.8 pts	25	INCONCLUSIVE
ECL	+512.6%	+20174.1%	-19661.5%	before 1993	116	OVERFIT
ED	+1444.3%	+45081.6%	-43637.3%	before 1993	116	OVERFIT
EFX	+8596.3%	+77234.4%	-68638.1%	before 1993	90	MARGINAL
EG	+305.6%	+2975.7%	-2670.2%	-5.9 pts	46	OVERFIT
EIX	+2182.2%	+14610.5%	-12428.4%	before 1993	66	OVERFIT
EL	+5.7%	+1551.3%	-1545.6%	-10.3 pts	63	OVERFIT
ELV	-14.1%	+2326.9%	-2340.9%	-10.9 pts	45	OVERFIT
EME	+636.4%	+59203.5%	-58567.1%	-4.7 pts	77	OVERFIT
EMR	+929.2%	+19839.1%	-18910.0%	before 1993	95	OVERFIT
EOG	+82.0%	+9279.7%	-9197.7%	before 1993	75	OVERFIT
EQIX	-85.3%	+240.5%	-325.8%	-15.6 pts	31	OVERFIT
EQR	+50.5%	+44.2%	+6.3%	-11.0 pts	10	INCONCLUSIVE
EQT	+2334.9%	+19557.1%	-17222.2%	before 1993	93	OVERFIT
ERIE	+443.8%	+3362.8%	-2919.0%	-5.0 pts	46	OVERFIT
ES	+121.2%	+2960.1%	-2838.9%	before 1993	54	OVERFIT
ESS	+860.9%	+5274.8%	-4413.9%	-3.8 pts	38	OVERFIT
ETN	+16997.7%	+116541.5%	-99543.8%	before 1993	126	OVERFIT
ETR	+2296.1%	+19797.9%	-17501.8%	before 1993	68	OVERFIT
EVRG	+1712.5%	+5086.7%	-3374.2%	before 1993	73	OVERFIT
EW	+238.4%	+6500.0%	-6261.6%	-3.5 pts	47	OVERFIT
EXE	n/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD	+4597.4%	+148324.6%	-143727.2%	before 1993	61	OVERFIT
EXPE	+247.7%	+916.1%	-668.5%	-5.0 pts	41	OVERFIT
EXR	+167.8%	+2698.9%	-2531.2%	-6.7 pts	36	OVERFIT
F	+1071.9%	+6752.4%	-5680.6%	before 1993	111	OVERFIT
FCX	+975.8%	+1061.6%	-85.9%	-2.7 pts	55	OVERFIT
FDS	+752.8%	+9088.9%	-8336.1%	-2.9 pts	67	OVERFIT
FDX	+1433.3%	+53776.9%	-52343.7%	before 1993	113	OVERFIT
FDXF	n/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE	+81.9%	+563.0%	-481.2%	-7.4 pts	35	OVERFIT
FFIV	+1004.1%	+5374.0%	-4369.9%	+0.7 pts	45	MARGINAL
FICO	+2835.5%	+94747.8%	-91912.3%	before 1993	116	OVERFIT
FIS	+86.2%	+363.8%	-277.6%	-7.0 pts	39	OVERFIT
FITB	+2913.7%	+28280.0%	-25366.3%	before 1993	72	OVERFIT
FIX	+3363.3%	+11966.2%	-8602.9%	+3.4 pts	57	OVERFIT
FLEX	+257.1%	+7898.6%	-7641.5%	-6.9 pts	53	OVERFIT
FOX	n/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXA	n/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT	+501.5%	+24360.2%	-23858.7%	before 1993	114	OVERFIT
FSLR	+333.4%	+716.1%	-382.7%	-3.3 pts	37	OVERFIT
FTV	-4.7%	+100.1%	-104.8%	-16.0 pts	21	INCONCLUSIVE
GD	+36633.1%	+221689.9%	-185056.8%	before 1993	143	GENERALIZED
GDDY	-20.5%	+389.4%	-409.9%	-16.0 pts	22	INCONCLUSIVE
GE	+27505.2%	+54356.2%	-26851.0%	before 1993	99	OVERFIT
GEN	+214.4%	+12085.6%	-11871.1%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
GEV	n/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS	+447.1%	+15015.5%	-14568.4%	before 1993	84	OVERFIT
GL	+1725.1%	+12680.6%	-10955.5%	before 1993	89	OVERFIT
GLW	+53293.2%	+19301.2%	+33992.0%	before 1993	93	MARGINAL
GM	-28.9%	+240.1%	-269.0%	-16.6 pts	33	INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC	+453.6%	+2091.1%	-1637.5%	-3.7 pts	31	INCONCLUSIVE
GPC	+199.8%	+12785.5%	-12585.7%	before 1993	93	OVERFIT
GPN	+99.4%	+2567.9%	-2468.5%	-6.3 pts	47	OVERFIT
GRMN	+1586.5%	+5377.3%	-3790.9%	+2.7 pts	49	OVERFIT
GWW	+397.6%	+55300.2%	-54902.6%	before 1993	183	OVERFIT
HAL	+229.5%	+2860.8%	-2631.2%	before 1993	110	OVERFIT
HAS	+5737.1%	+201529.8%	-195792.6%	before 1993	105	OVERFIT
HBAN	+1.6%	+3799.5%	-3797.9%	before 1993	75	OVERFIT
HCA	+1052.1%	+1699.7%	-647.6%	+3.0 pts	23	INCONCLUSIVE
HIG	+458.5%	+951.1%	-492.6%	-4.7 pts	43	GENERALIZED
HII	+407.2%	+883.6%	-476.4%	-3.1 pts	24	INCONCLUSIVE
HLT	+139.6%	+659.1%	-519.5%	-7.0 pts	15	INCONCLUSIVE
HOOD	n/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE	+166.7%	+625.0%	-458.4%	-5.4 pts	25	INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ	+3043.7%	+77945.5%	-74901.9%	before 1993	139	OVERFIT
HRL	+1235.6%	+19046.1%	-17810.5%	before 1993	122	MARGINAL
HSIC	+17.9%	+1913.1%	-1895.2%	-10.0 pts	43	OVERFIT
HST	+1624.0%	+12843.9%	-11219.8%	before 1993	86	MARGINAL
HSY	+4342.5%	+53964.6%	-49622.0%	before 1993	73	OVERFIT
HUBB	+216.8%	+3853.5%	-3636.7%	-7.4 pts	51	OVERFIT
HUM	+178.6%	+20168.9%	-19990.3%	before 1993	87	OVERFIT
HWM	n/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR	+873.1%	+1526.1%	-653.0%	+1.7 pts	23	INCONCLUSIVE
ICE	+1110.7%	+2307.9%	-1197.1%	+1.6 pts	26	OVERFIT
IEX	+614.8%	+12761.2%	-12146.4%	before 1993	81	OVERFIT
IFF	+76.9%	+4754.9%	-4678.1%	before 1993	93	OVERFIT
INCY	+11.8%	+6471.7%	-6459.9%	-10.6 pts	63	OVERFIT
INVH	n/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP	-7.8%	+4590.1%	-4597.9%	before 1993	133	OVERFIT
IQV	+142.1%	+520.3%	-378.2%	-7.4 pts	21	INCONCLUSIVE
IR	n/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM	+1689.9%	+9911.6%	-8221.7%	-0.4 pts	63	OVERFIT
IT	+6096.7%	+6431.0%	-334.4%	+2.5 pts	55	OVERFIT
ITW	+864.1%	+51254.1%	-50390.0%	before 1993	179	OVERFIT
IVZ	-28.5%	+1093.8%	-1122.3%	-11.8 pts	83	OVERFIT
J	+571.7%	+33544.7%	-32973.0%	before 1993	132	MARGINAL
JBHT	+1459.8%	+24926.6%	-23466.8%	before 1993	61	OVERFIT
JBL	+1269.0%	+41217.7%	-39948.7%	-2.7 pts	65	OVERFIT
JCI	+1006.5%	+4376.5%	-3370.0%	before 1993	75	OVERFIT
JKHY	+1143.4%	+71288.2%	-70144.9%	before 1993	61	OVERFIT
KEY	+53.7%	+1405.6%	-1351.9%	before 1993	65	OVERFIT
KEYS	+446.7%	+1042.3%	-595.6%	+1.1 pts	21	INCONCLUSIVE
KIM	+1014.8%	+3036.5%	-2021.7%	before 1993	65	OVERFIT
KKR	+199.4%	+1784.9%	-1585.5%	-7.8 pts	22	INCONCLUSIVE
KMB	+1103.2%	+16039.9%	-14936.7%	before 1993	91	MARGINAL
KMI	+104.3%	+117.5%	-13.2%	-9.2 pts	18	INCONCLUSIVE
KR	+6804.9%	+182706.1%	-175901.2%	before 1993	122	MARGINAL
KVUE	n/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L	+1943.1%	+22398.8%	-20455.7%	before 1993	119	OVERFIT
LDOS	+83.8%	+530.2%	-446.4%	-8.0 pts	23	OVERFIT
LEN	+7630.9%	+29032.9%	-21402.0%	before 1993	104	GENERALIZED
LH	-24.4%	+1408.2%	-1432.7%	before 1993	61	OVERFIT
LHX	+293.2%	+8519.5%	-8226.3%	before 1993	108	OVERFIT
LII	+626.8%	+3122.4%	-2495.6%	-0.9 pts	40	MARGINAL
LLY	+1958.1%	+129720.0%	-127761.9%	before 1993	125	OVERFIT
LMT	+616.6%	+67444.7%	-66828.1%	before 1993	139	OVERFIT
LNT	+586.4%	+9408.5%	-8822.1%	before 1993	69	OVERFIT
LOW	+598.9%	+77328.4%	-76729.5%	before 1993	124	OVERFIT
LULU	+1724.9%	+759.0%	+965.9%	+5.3 pts	34	INCONCLUSIVE
LUV	+1578.3%	+24508.5%	-22930.2%	before 1993	90	OVERFIT
LVS	+467.0%	+50.3%	+416.7%	-2.6 pts	34	OVERFIT
LYB	+267.9%	+648.8%	-380.9%	-5.7 pts	25	INCONCLUSIVE
LYV	+151.0%	+1558.0%	-1407.0%	-6.6 pts	36	OVERFIT
MA	+982.2%	+14066.9%	-13084.7%	+1.2 pts	25	OVERFIT
MAA	+150.1%	+3525.2%	-3375.1%	-8.0 pts	58	OVERFIT
MAS	+481.8%	+7423.1%	-6941.3%	before 1993	95	OVERFIT
MCK	+2652.4%	+6946.5%	-4294.1%	-0.1 pts	54	OVERFIT
MCO	+1534.9%	+7753.9%	-6219.1%	-1.9 pts	49	OVERFIT
MDT	+1452.2%	+51421.0%	-49968.8%	before 1993	119	OVERFIT
MET	+82.8%	+1176.9%	-1094.1%	-6.0 pts	37	OVERFIT
MGM	+168.9%	+1501.4%	-1332.5%	before 1993	95	OVERFIT
MKC	+7.8%	+14401.8%	-14394.1%	before 1993	124	OVERFIT
MLM	+2103.2%	+3089.6%	-986.3%	-0.9 pts	48	MARGINAL
MO	+39336.7%	+2914781.4%	-2875444.7%	before 1993	142	MARGINAL
MOS	-16.7%	+268.9%	-285.7%	before 1993	92	OVERFIT
MPC	+496.4%	+2972.8%	-2476.3%	-2.1 pts	27	INCONCLUSIVE
MRNA	n/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH	+783.2%	+21192.9%	-20409.6%	before 1993	115	MARGINAL
MS	+1085.4%	+6159.1%	-5073.7%	-3.2 pts	63	OVERFIT
MSCI	+437.4%	+2406.7%	-1969.3%	-1.9 pts	31	INCONCLUSIVE
MSI	+1969.3%	+79243.2%	-77273.9%	before 1993	154	OVERFIT
MTB	+18813.1%	+105049.8%	-86236.7%	before 1993	114	MARGINAL
MTD	+426.2%	+9346.3%	-8920.1%	-3.5 pts	43	OVERFIT
NCLH	-66.2%	-34.9%	-31.3%	-22.4 pts	32	INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ	+639.9%	+2371.2%	-1731.3%	-2.3 pts	37	OVERFIT
NDSN	+6345.0%	+37769.3%	-31424.3%	before 1993	53	MARGINAL
NEE	+1128.3%	+23772.9%	-22644.6%	before 1993	100	OVERFIT
NEM	+532.7%	+2099.8%	-1567.1%	before 1993	119	OVERFIT
NI	+27.7%	+5234.9%	-5207.2%	before 1993	86	OVERFIT
NOC	+1414.7%	+23369.3%	-21954.6%	before 1993	110	OVERFIT
NOW	+322.8%	+2907.9%	-2585.1%	-4.2 pts	19	INCONCLUSIVE
NRG	+1337.2%	+1442.6%	-105.3%	+1.4 pts	38	MARGINAL
NSC	+1532.6%	+24520.7%	-22988.0%	before 1993	69	OVERFIT
NTAP	+453.1%	+19659.8%	-19206.6%	-4.8 pts	47	OVERFIT
NTRS	+1727.6%	+53074.8%	-51347.2%	before 1993	85	OVERFIT
NUE	+1743.9%	+70209.1%	-68465.2%	before 1993	122	OVERFIT
NVR	+2634.3%	+61512.0%	-58877.7%	-0.3 pts	56	MARGINAL
NWS	+195.0%	+152.4%	+42.6%	-5.8 pts	14	INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA	+105.5%	+122.2%	-16.7%	-8.8 pts	16	INCONCLUSIVE
O	+177.7%	+5366.4%	-5188.7%	-7.8 pts	40	MARGINAL
OKE	+1541.6%	+19101.6%	-17560.0%	before 1993	78	OVERFIT
OMC	+1243.2%	+15677.5%	-14434.3%	before 1993	93	OVERFIT
ON	+157.5%	+208.7%	-51.2%	-4.8 pts	39	OVERFIT
ORCL	+6867.5%	+296729.4%	-289861.9%	before 1993	74	OVERFIT
OTIS	n/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY	+345.7%	+3580.0%	-3234.3%	before 1993	71	OVERFIT
PCG	+2247.1%	+1389.7%	+857.4%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
PEG	+489.2%	+18884.4%	-18395.2%	before 1993	56	MARGINAL
PFE	+9382.6%	+20062.7%	-10680.1%	before 1993	72	OVERFIT
PFG	+250.3%	+920.1%	-669.8%	-5.0 pts	37	OVERFIT
PGR	+6524.5%	+819581.9%	-813057.5%	before 1993	132	MARGINAL
PH	+5668.9%	+41129.4%	-35460.5%	before 1993	98	MARGINAL
PHM	+6157.2%	+95847.7%	-89690.5%	before 1993	105	MARGINAL
PLD	-26.7%	+1782.5%	-1809.3%	-10.4 pts	41	OVERFIT
PM	+192.3%	+785.7%	-593.4%	-6.2 pts	33	INCONCLUSIVE
PNC	+7005.4%	+37937.9%	-30932.5%	before 1993	95	OVERFIT
PNR	+365.5%	+11510.8%	-11145.4%	before 1993	116	OVERFIT
PNW	+214.1%	+2247.6%	-2033.4%	before 1993	84	OVERFIT
PODD	+89.8%	+831.5%	-741.6%	-7.4 pts	24	INCONCLUSIVE
PPG	+941.3%	+21327.4%	-20386.2%	before 1993	82	OVERFIT
PPL	+1236.0%	+7311.8%	-6075.8%	before 1993	73	OVERFIT
PRU	+185.4%	+767.8%	-582.4%	-5.7 pts	34	MARGINAL
PSA	+724.9%	+13958.7%	-13233.8%	before 1993	63	OVERFIT
PSKY	+1219.3%	-34.8%	+1254.1%	+2.2 pts	17	OVERFIT
PSX	+323.6%	+1071.7%	-748.1%	-4.0 pts	27	INCONCLUSIVE
PTC	+486.4%	+8443.5%	-7957.0%	before 1993	42	MARGINAL
PWR	+2224.1%	+8155.1%	-5931.0%	+2.5 pts	53	OVERFIT
Q	n/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL	+17972.9%	+4611.6%	+13361.3%	+6.0 pts	55	GENERALIZED
REG	+213.2%	+2046.5%	-1833.3%	-7.3 pts	64	OVERFIT
RF	+347.7%	+7230.0%	-6882.3%	before 1993	77	OVERFIT
RJF	+1873.2%	+52691.1%	-50817.8%	before 1993	113	MARGINAL
RL	+373.7%	+1376.9%	-1003.2%	-4.0 pts	41	OVERFIT
RMD	+1323.4%	+43254.4%	-41930.9%	-1.9 pts	73	OVERFIT
ROK	+1738.2%	+57325.7%	-55587.5%	before 1993	69	OVERFIT
ROL	+1691.7%	+36503.9%	-34812.2%	before 1993	90	OVERFIT
RSG	+108.6%	+1977.7%	-1869.1%	-6.2 pts	38	OVERFIT
RTX	+7286.5%	+231131.9%	-223845.3%	before 1993	115	OVERFIT
RVTY	+457.2%	+25547.2%	-25090.0%	before 1993	129	OVERFIT
SBAC	+1721.0%	+2259.6%	-538.6%	+2.8 pts	27	MARGINAL
SCHW	+814.8%	+45501.9%	-44687.0%	before 1993	87	OVERFIT
SJM	+112.7%	+1119.0%	-1006.3%	-8.7 pts	57	OVERFIT
SLB	+503.8%	+1125.4%	-621.6%	before 1993	55	OVERFIT
SMCI	+646.6%	+4155.7%	-3509.1%	-0.2 pts	37	INCONCLUSIVE
SNA	+345.1%	+12522.0%	-12176.9%	before 1993	116	OVERFIT
SO	+912.9%	+32617.4%	-31704.5%	before 1993	44	OVERFIT
SOLV	n/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG	+3313.6%	+5330.6%	-2017.0%	+0.5 pts	41	OVERFIT
SPGI	+13502.1%	+140503.3%	-127001.2%	before 1993	101	OVERFIT
SRE	+118.0%	+1463.0%	-1344.9%	-6.0 pts	37	OVERFIT
STE	+44.5%	+15491.4%	-15446.9%	before 1993	61	OVERFIT
STLD	+766.5%	+7831.8%	-7065.3%	-2.5 pts	40	MARGINAL
STT	+3577.0%	+199686.1%	-196109.1%	before 1993	129	OVERFIT
STZ	+477.9%	+10007.0%	-9529.1%	before 1993	55	MARGINAL
SW	+58.0%	+775.0%	-717.0%	-9.5 pts	189	INCONCLUSIVE
SWK	+30.9%	+5887.9%	-5857.1%	before 1993	96	OVERFIT
SWKS	+303.1%	+1317.3%	-1014.2%	before 1993	85	OVERFIT
SYF	+121.2%	+325.2%	-204.0%	-7.2 pts	22	INCONCLUSIVE
SYK	+2827.7%	+430371.4%	-427543.7%	before 1993	100	OVERFIT
SYY	+631.8%	+115885.9%	-115254.1%	before 1993	148	MARGINAL
T	+1063.9%	+10219.8%	-9155.9%	before 1993	68	OVERFIT
TAP	+61.5%	+518.8%	-457.2%	before 1993	108	OVERFIT
TDG	+1069.4%	+13285.3%	-12215.9%	+1.7 pts	30	OVERFIT
TDY	+575.7%	+7164.6%	-6588.9%	-1.0 pts	28	OVERFIT
TECH	+1600.0%	+79246.8%	-77646.7%	before 1993	35	OVERFIT
TEL	+108.2%	+671.1%	-562.8%	-6.9 pts	38	INCONCLUSIVE
TFC	+310.2%	+10226.4%	-9916.2%	before 1993	61	OVERFIT
TGT	+1638.2%	+90566.5%	-88928.3%	before 1993	131	OVERFIT
TJX	+2236.0%	+36154.4%	-33918.4%	before 1993	52	MARGINAL
TKO	+1234.3%	+1638.9%	-404.5%	+1.3 pts	36	OVERFIT
TMO	+1983.6%	+36784.3%	-34800.7%	before 1993	99	GENERALIZED
TPL	+26773.9%	+75277.1%	-48503.2%	before 1993	181	OVERFIT
TPR	+1194.6%	+7766.6%	-6572.0%	+1.8 pts	42	OVERFIT
TRGP	+2165.0%	+2202.9%	-37.9%	+7.6 pts	19	INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB	+70.6%	+3366.4%	-3295.8%	before 1993	58	OVERFIT
TROW	+2668.3%	+35932.6%	-33264.4%	before 1993	70	MARGINAL
TSCO	+3857.2%	+15199.0%	-11341.8%	+1.1 pts	44	OVERFIT
TSN	+881.5%	+4340.8%	-3459.3%	before 1993	94	OVERFIT
TT	+11552.3%	+49748.2%	-38195.8%	before 1993	99	OVERFIT
TTD	n/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT	+3026.3%	+4901.2%	-1874.9%	before 1993	122	OVERFIT
TYL	+2540.4%	+43359.1%	-40818.7%	before 1993	84	OVERFIT
UAL	+54.0%	+240.6%	-186.7%	-9.0 pts	40	OVERFIT
UBER	n/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR	+3723.4%	+14119.5%	-10396.1%	before 1993	42	MARGINAL
UHS	+5836.0%	+15293.2%	-9457.2%	before 1993	99	OVERFIT
ULTA	+1137.7%	+1721.3%	-583.6%	+3.3 pts	33	INCONCLUSIVE
UNP	+2045.3%	+30311.4%	-28266.1%	before 1993	85	MARGINAL
UPS	+63.3%	+233.2%	-169.9%	-6.7 pts	39	OVERFIT
URI	+1073.2%	+7088.3%	-6015.1%	-0.4 pts	59	OVERFIT
USB	+1410.2%	+44799.0%	-43388.8%	before 1993	85	OVERFIT
VEEV	+135.5%	+668.8%	-533.4%	-7.3 pts	21	INCONCLUSIVE
VICI	n/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO	+12110.8%	+23394.0%	-11283.2%	before 1993	97	MARGINAL
VLTO	n/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC	+1029.7%	+48759.3%	-47729.7%	before 1993	184	OVERFIT
VRSK	+13.0%	+648.8%	-635.8%	-13.7 pts	28	INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN	+2532.4%	+5322.0%	-2789.6%	+2.8 pts	34	MARGINAL
VRT	n/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VST	n/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR	+152.4%	+1496.8%	-1344.4%	-6.5 pts	51	OVERFIT
VTRS	-45.8%	+1568.8%	-1614.6%	before 1993	99	OVERFIT
VZ	+882.6%	+4889.1%	-4006.6%	before 1993	53	OVERFIT
WAB	+470.8%	+4137.7%	-3666.9%	-5.0 pts	57	OVERFIT
WAT	+79.6%	+10865.4%	-10785.8%	-8.6 pts	65	OVERFIT
WEC	+1658.2%	+23656.8%	-21998.6%	before 1993	60	MARGINAL
WELL	+1969.9%	+58774.1%	-56804.2%	before 1993	70	OVERFIT
WFC	+1158.0%	+63452.2%	-62294.2%	before 1993	104	OVERFIT
WM	+1621.4%	+8471.2%	-6849.8%	before 1993	55	MARGINAL
WMB	+5450.6%	+11974.1%	-6523.6%	before 1993	74	OVERFIT
WSM	+20005.3%	+69865.8%	-49860.5%	before 1993	89	MARGINAL
WST	+3541.4%	+79208.6%	-75667.2%	before 1993	165	MARGINAL
WTW	+104.6%	+1181.6%	-1077.0%	-6.5 pts	31	OVERFIT
WY	+425.9%	+1781.4%	-1355.5%	before 1993	84	OVERFIT
WYNN	+1184.6%	+1217.6%	-33.0%	-0.1 pts	29	OVERFIT
XOM	+10340.5%	+183657.9%	-173317.4%	before 1993	107	OVERFIT
XYL	+170.6%	+455.0%	-284.4%	-8.3 pts	22	INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ	-23.8%	+527.5%	-551.3%	-17.2 pts	23	INCONCLUSIVE
YUM	+84.1%	+4282.5%	-4198.4%	-7.2 pts	39	OVERFIT
ZBH	+15.6%	+292.2%	-276.6%	-9.1 pts	42	OVERFIT
ZBRA	+662.9%	+8617.7%	-7954.8%	before 1993	69	MARGINAL
ZTS	+25.2%	+179.3%	-154.1%	-13.0 pts	20	INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 7 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
EUR/USD	+12.6%	-3.1%	+15.8%	-10.5 pts	13	INCONCLUSIVE
GBP/USD	-8.2%	-21.2%	+13.1%	-11.4 pts	15	OVERFIT
USD/JPY	+45.6%	+40.2%	+5.4%	-8.9 pts	20	OVERFIT
USD/MXN	+55.2%	+49.9%	+5.3%	-9.1 pts	3	INCONCLUSIVE
AUD/USD	+36.1%	-6.6%	+42.8%	-9.7 pts	9	INCONCLUSIVE
USD/CAD	+46.7%	+1.7%	+45.0%	-9.5 pts	5	INCONCLUSIVE
USD/CHF	-7.2%	-41.4%	+34.2%	-11.5 pts	10	INCONCLUSIVE
NZD/USD	-25.9%	-8.1%	-17.8%	-12.3 pts	29	OVERFIT

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 2

Asset	Return	Buy and hold	Difference	Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)	Trades	Out of sample
Bitcoin	+5172.8%	+17075.3%	-11902.5%	+11.9 pts	43	INCONCLUSIVE
Ether	n/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin	+702.3%	+859.3%	-157.1%	-1.0 pts	37	INCONCLUSIVE
Solana	n/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardano	n/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoin	n/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset	5 min	15 min	1 hour	4 hours	Daily
Litecoin	-1348.2%	-1318.9%	-1208.9%	+830.1%	-157.1%
Solana	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Cardano	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Dogecoin	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
EUR/USD	-47.4%	-19.0%	+27.2%	-17.6%	+15.8%
GBP/USD	-48.6%	-19.4%	+33.8%	-2.3%	+13.1%
USD/JPY	-89.6%	-16.4%	-63.9%	+23.3%	+5.4%
AUD/USD	—	—	—	—	+42.8%
USD/CAD	-106.0%	-68.5%	-9.4%	-9.4%	+45.0%
USD/CHF	-66.0%	-46.4%	+14.3%	+18.2%	+34.2%
NZD/USD	-69.4%	-40.7%	+6.1%	+1.2%	-17.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)	-420.5%	-325.1%	-211.6%	-325.8%	-2490.1%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)	-658.4%	-608.8%	-475.6%	-483.0%	-1561.2%
Russell 2000 (IWM)	-292.2%	-203.6%	-73.0%	-205.4%	-384.7%
Emergentes (EEM)	-232.8%	-213.5%	-131.5%	-174.5%	-724.7%
Oro (GLD)	-374.6%	-320.6%	-211.9%	-183.5%	-262.2%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)	-85.5%	-69.2%	-24.3%	+7.0%	-68.8%
AAPL	-1254.0%	-1114.9%	-950.0%	-952.3%	-217489.0%
AMGN	-356.4%	-307.6%	-136.6%	-253.8%	-170369.9%
AMZN	-781.2%	-647.3%	-700.2%	-265.4%	-111480.7%
AXP	-537.3%	-424.9%	-384.2%	-489.5%	-27007.3%
BA	-118.5%	-52.7%	+352.1%	-16.8%	-104894.1%
CAT	-1374.4%	-918.8%	-1073.4%	-1122.7%	-152477.3%
CRM	-315.8%	-250.4%	-170.6%	-155.3%	-5243.8%
CSCO	-542.9%	-451.4%	-405.6%	-439.1%	-185615.3%
CVX	-336.8%	-248.4%	-173.7%	-62.6%	-67596.9%
DIS	-94.0%	-66.3%	-11.1%	-11.1%	-118457.2%
GOOGL	-853.6%	-697.4%	-756.9%	-572.3%	-12038.6%
GS	-653.4%	-598.1%	-239.2%	-481.3%	-1743.2%
HD	-279.1%	-273.7%	-155.6%	-126.6%	-1984001.9%
HON	-268.0%	-173.4%	-83.3%	-168.5%	-21007.8%
IBM	-260.6%	-69.9%	-82.2%	-218.4%	-15708.4%
JNJ	-326.3%	-287.4%	-196.6%	-221.8%	-438536.1%
JPM	-724.2%	-590.4%	-468.6%	-503.9%	-34330.1%
KO	-273.8%	-219.8%	-169.4%	-172.2%	-187579.6%
MCD	-253.8%	-185.5%	-166.7%	-153.7%	-216072.9%
MMM	-178.4%	-152.2%	-82.1%	-89.6%	-28732.5%
MRK	-397.1%	-347.8%	-250.5%	-241.8%	-224610.0%
MSFT	-1042.3%	-937.2%	-797.2%	-705.9%	-853641.2%
NKE	-44.6%	-48.9%	-6.2%	-20.6%	-29062.5%
NVDA	-26411.3%	-26316.5%	-25604.2%	-23341.6%	-529765.7%
PG	-227.6%	-185.1%	-158.7%	-152.0%	-58538.5%
SHW	-422.2%	-411.0%	-338.3%	-280.1%	-228313.3%
TRV	-396.3%	-376.4%	-289.1%	-302.2%	-11932.9%
UNH	-355.8%	-323.4%	-170.3%	-270.3%	-340332.4%
V	-530.1%	-488.4%	-383.2%	-405.3%	-2730.7%
WMT	-583.0%	-473.7%	-382.3%	-361.7%	-884316.4%
ABNB	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ADBE	-285.6%	-263.2%	-136.2%	-121.6%	-145975.3%
ADI	-775.8%	-743.0%	-502.6%	-587.8%	-80410.7%
ADP	-427.5%	-388.5%	-260.3%	-131.4%	-72057.5%
ADSK	-417.3%	-374.2%	-349.7%	-230.5%	-57318.3%
AEP	-294.1%	-247.9%	-158.3%	-133.1%	-12554.5%
ALAB	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ALNY	-199.2%	-96.5%	+116.2%	-120.3%	-3210.8%
AMAT	-2716.9%	-2699.0%	-2548.1%	-2174.4%	-649362.5%
AMD	-15921.4%	-15370.4%	-15416.4%	-11944.4%	-11054.3%
APP	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ARM	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
ASML	-2134.0%	-1857.6%	-1740.7%	-1383.8%	-80464.3%
AVGO	-3315.0%	-2986.3%	-3086.7%	-2985.8%	-29389.3%
AXON	-3451.6%	-1969.2%	-3033.5%	-3009.9%	+164245.4%
BKNG	-398.7%	-282.5%	-353.0%	-348.7%	+3361.7%
BKR	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-944.9%
CCEP	-402.2%	-388.3%	-335.6%	-324.5%	-6811.9%
CDNS	-1601.9%	-1383.8%	-1355.9%	-1392.4%	-15516.8%
CEG	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
CMCSA	-131.7%	-112.4%	-60.3%	-23.7%	-46559.0%
COST	-668.8%	-571.4%	-406.7%	-272.9%	-11971.4%
CPRT	-651.8%	-563.6%	-368.2%	-447.1%	-16931.9%
CRWD	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
CSX	-681.4%	-643.5%	-504.5%	-470.9%	-39205.2%
CTAS	-1018.8%	-745.8%	-638.3%	-701.2%	-120240.8%
DASH	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
DDOG	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
DXCM	-367.3%	-50.4%	-295.1%	-213.3%	-2549.3%
EA	—	—	—	—	n/a
EXC	-294.3%	-237.2%	-174.2%	-165.7%	-16295.8%
FANG	-328.3%	-262.6%	-109.8%	-209.7%	-1168.9%
FAST	-642.6%	-582.7%	-520.1%	-541.9%	-261358.8%
FER	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-598.3%
FTNT	-2716.6%	-2691.7%	-2457.2%	-2438.6%	-7937.0%
GEHC	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
GILD	-205.3%	-161.8%	-109.0%	-69.2%	-26076.0%
HONA	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
IDXX	-767.8%	-737.5%	-570.3%	-585.9%	-53712.4%
INTC	-291.6%	-221.5%	+297.2%	-204.4%	-44394.3%
INTU	-339.7%	-376.9%	-228.1%	-246.5%	-14953.9%
ISRG	-564.6%	-540.0%	-369.2%	-316.1%	-14590.9%
KHC	-52.4%	-30.4%	+29.7%	-19.3%	+5.0%
KLAC	-3007.9%	-2837.5%	-2607.4%	-2816.4%	-287573.8%
LIN	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-10116.6%
LITE	-3857.2%	-3549.0%	-3642.1%	-3482.4%	-3456.4%
LRCX	-4290.8%	-4177.9%	-3923.1%	-4131.9%	-158089.8%
MAR	-571.9%	-522.8%	-404.9%	-434.8%	-1699.0%
MCHP	-369.9%	-323.4%	-281.4%	-289.7%	-41807.3%
MDLZ	-151.6%	-111.5%	-83.6%	-91.2%	-335.7%
MELI	-1771.7%	-1365.7%	-1379.2%	-1657.4%	-6352.8%
META	-464.1%	-446.5%	-250.7%	-337.3%	-752.4%
MNST	-178.1%	-158.8%	+11.0%	+81.6%	-50108.9%
MPWR	-2206.8%	-1938.8%	-2021.2%	-2147.8%	-14760.3%
MRVL	-2565.8%	-2572.5%	-2218.8%	-1519.2%	-631.2%
MSTR	-641.2%	+144.3%	+1078.8%	-612.6%	+734.0%
MU	-6297.8%	-6539.6%	-4149.5%	-5379.4%	+36948.5%
NFLX	-705.1%	-413.1%	-413.3%	-471.0%	-12775.8%
NXPI	-285.8%	-266.9%	-262.1%	-218.3%	-1726.2%
ODFL	-1036.6%	-910.6%	-729.8%	-580.0%	-36296.7%
ORLY	-534.2%	-450.9%	-217.7%	-469.7%	-54549.7%
PANW	-1281.8%	-1117.5%	-997.5%	-619.4%	-3060.3%
PCAR	-564.0%	-513.8%	-441.3%	-459.8%	-41413.8%
PDD	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
PEP	-182.4%	-165.1%	-104.6%	-84.8%	-35633.7%
PLTR	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
PYPL	-142.9%	-118.3%	-87.0%	+59.7%	+161.4%
QCOM	-417.8%	-370.8%	-265.6%	-354.2%	-48070.0%
REGN	-148.9%	-105.9%	-44.5%	-52.6%	-3442.1%
ROP	-241.0%	-208.5%	-55.0%	-140.7%	-22342.3%
ROST	-442.6%	-406.9%	-336.4%	-226.7%	-48359.4%
SBUX	-221.1%	-193.7%	-128.6%	-39.6%	-27955.2%
SHOP	-5775.3%	-5256.4%	-4003.9%	-5432.3%	-7869.2%
SNDK	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
SNPS	-963.4%	-798.7%	-805.7%	-844.2%	-5550.7%
STX	-3550.8%	-3334.1%	-2856.0%	-2115.5%	+3625.5%
TER	-1722.0%	-1378.0%	-1225.5%	-1423.9%	-30812.2%
TMUS	-481.1%	-440.4%	-383.2%	-341.5%	-269.9%
TRI	-344.4%	-304.4%	-157.5%	-237.8%	-446.6%
TSLA	-728.0%	+395.2%	+1381.0%	-416.0%	-21707.2%
TTWO	-684.2%	-653.5%	-648.3%	-193.8%	-5512.6%
TXN	-613.6%	-562.1%	-395.0%	-479.2%	-37528.8%
VRTX	-436.0%	-327.4%	-281.1%	-278.2%	-11347.0%
WBD	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	-224.3%
WDAY	-253.7%	-239.1%	-216.3%	-24.2%	-210.6%
WDC	-958.9%	-985.6%	-346.6%	-405.5%	-55733.6%
XEL	-278.2%	-235.8%	-117.5%	-164.8%	-6901.4%
KDP	-260.8%	-237.5%	-157.8%	-124.5%	-678.9%
USD/MXN	-124.0%	-62.1%	-74.5%	-56.5%	+5.3%
Bitcoin	-18084.8%	-17750.7%	-12220.9%	-3912.2%	-11902.5%
Ether	—	—	—	—	n/a

20 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 33 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

Parameters	Return	Sharpe	Max DD	Vs. index
atr_len 10	590.9%	0.25	-18.0%	-2490.1%
atr_len 7	48.4%	-0.67	-14.9%	-3032.7%
atr_len 14	327.2%	0.08	-32.4%	-2753.8%
atr_len 21	441.1%	0.15	-25.3%	-2639.9%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.41 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+131.4% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+198.6% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.6243.

Deflated Sharpe 0.4093 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact e097c9613211 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 45 markets

Sources for the claim

Olivier Seban (2009)

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Supertrend: the line that changes colour: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend

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