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Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on RCL?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold on RCL by +4.6 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×181
Buy and hold
×47
CAGR
16.9%
Sharpe
0.53
Max drawdown
-61.1%
Trades
55
Out of sample
—
Years
33
1×10×100×396×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyRCL

Findings

  1. Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold on RCL by +4.6 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +6.0 points a year.
  3. Total return ×181 versus ×47 for buy-and-hold, with 55 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -61.1%.
  5. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2009).
  6. It ranks #18 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding RCL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on RCL → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on RCL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/rcl

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.