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Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on STX?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold on STX by +1.1 points a year over 24 years.

Total return
×193
Buy and hold
×157
CAGR
24.9%
Sharpe
0.70
Max drawdown
-67.3%
Trades
43
Out of sample
partly
Years
24
1×10×100×210×200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategySTX

Findings

  1. Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold on STX by +1.1 points a year over 24 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +13.5 points a year.
  3. Total return ×193 versus ×157 for buy-and-hold, with 43 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -67.3%.
  6. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2014).
  7. It ranks #6 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding STX over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on STX → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on STX?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/stx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.