Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour beat the S&P 500 on MAA?

Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.0 points a year.

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour hold out of sample on MAA?

The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour still work today?

It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).

FINAXIONResearch

Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on MAA?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on MAA: -8.8 points a year over 33 years.

Total return

150.1%

Buy and hold

×36

CAGR

2.9%

Sharpe

-0.00

Max drawdown

-55.6%

Trades

Out of sample

overfit

Years

StrategyMAA

Findings

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on MAA: -8.8 points a year over 33 years.
Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.0 points a year.
Total return +150.1% versus ×36 for buy-and-hold, with 58 trades.
The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
Maximum drawdown -55.6%.
It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
It ranks #177 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MAA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MAA → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on MAA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/maa

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.