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Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on MAR?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on MAR: -4.0 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
840.5%
Buy and hold
×26
CAGR
8.2%
Sharpe
0.28
Max drawdown
-57.6%
Trades
45
Out of sample
overfit
Years
28
1×10×19992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyMAR

Findings

  1. Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on MAR: -4.0 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -0.7 points a year.
  3. Total return +840.5% versus ×26 for buy-and-hold, with 45 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -57.6%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #65 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MAR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MAR → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on MAR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/mar

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.