Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour beat the S&P 500 on MCHP?

Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.0 points a year.

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour hold out of sample on MCHP?

The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour still work today?

It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).

FINAXIONResearch

Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on MCHP?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on MCHP: -17.0 points a year over 33 years.

Total return

154.2%

Buy and hold

×421

CAGR

2.8%

Sharpe

0.16

Max drawdown

-77.1%

Trades

Out of sample

overfit

Years

StrategyMCHP

Findings

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on MCHP: -17.0 points a year over 33 years.
Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.0 points a year.
Total return +154.2% versus ×421 for buy-and-hold, with 43 trades.
The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
Maximum drawdown -77.1%.
It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
It ranks #178 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MCHP over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MCHP → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on MCHP?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/mchp

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.