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Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on ULTA?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on ULTA: -2.3 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
×12
Buy and hold
×18
CAGR
14.3%
Sharpe
0.46
Max drawdown
-53.4%
Trades
33
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyULTA

Findings

  1. Supertrend: the line that changes colour does not beat buy-and-hold on ULTA: -2.3 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +3.3 points a year.
  3. Total return ×12 versus ×18 for buy-and-hold, with 33 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -53.4%.
  5. It beat before 2017 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #27 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ULTA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ULTA → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on ULTA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/ulta

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.