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Finaxion Research · Supertrend: the line that changes colour · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on USD/CAD?

Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold on USD/CAD by +1.6 points a year over 23 years.

Total return
46.7%
Buy and hold
1.7%
CAGR
1.7%
Sharpe
-0.28
Max drawdown
-24.2%
Trades
5
Out of sample
—
Years
23
0.7×1×1.1×1.5×200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyUSD/CAD

Findings

  1. Supertrend: the line that changes colour beats buy-and-hold on USD/CAD by +1.6 points a year over 23 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +46.7% versus +1.7% for buy-and-hold, with 5 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -24.2%.
  5. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2015).
  6. It ranks #198 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact e097c9613211.

Exactly what was tested

Entry when the close exceeds the upper band (ATR 10, multiplier 3); exit when the close drops below the lower band. The classic Supertrend definition.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding USD/CAD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on USD/CAD → · Full page for Supertrend: the line that changes colour →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Supertrend: the line that changes colour work on USD/CAD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/en/research/supertrend/usdcad

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.