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Finaxion Research · Wyckoff: buying the accumulation · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on AEE?

Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on AEE: -1.5 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
517.6%
Buy and hold
813.9%
CAGR
6.6%
Sharpe
0.26
Max drawdown
-30.8%
Trades
139
Out of sample
overfit
Years
29
0.8×1×5.3×9.7×19992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyAEE

Findings

  1. Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on AEE: -1.5 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -2.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +517.6% versus +813.9% for buy-and-hold, with 139 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -30.8%.
  6. It beat before 2012 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #59 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 11e887f77aa5.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 20-bar range with an 8-bar test window; active accumulation state → long; state lost → flat.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding AEE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on AEE → · Full page for Wyckoff: buying the accumulation →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on AEE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 11e887f77aa5. https://finaxion.app/en/research/wyckoff-accumulation/aee

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.