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Finaxion Research · Wyckoff: buying the accumulation · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on ASML?

Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -20.5 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
237.8%
Buy and hold
×964
CAGR
4.0%
Sharpe
0.15
Max drawdown
-80.8%
Trades
192
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×100×997×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyASML

Findings

  1. Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -20.5 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +237.8% versus ×964 for buy-and-hold, with 192 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -80.8%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #134 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 11e887f77aa5.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 20-bar range with an 8-bar test window; active accumulation state → long; state lost → flat.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ASML over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

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How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on ASML?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 11e887f77aa5. https://finaxion.app/en/research/wyckoff-accumulation/asml

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.