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Finaxion Research · Wyckoff: buying the accumulation · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on DLTR?

Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on DLTR: -12.0 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
244.3%
Buy and hold
×108
CAGR
4.0%
Sharpe
0.12
Max drawdown
-49.9%
Trades
176
Out of sample
partly
Years
31
1×10×100×146×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyDLTR

Findings

  1. Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on DLTR: -12.0 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +244.3% versus ×108 for buy-and-hold, with 176 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -49.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #135 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 11e887f77aa5.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 20-bar range with an 8-bar test window; active accumulation state → long; state lost → flat.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding DLTR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on DLTR → · Full page for Wyckoff: buying the accumulation →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on DLTR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 11e887f77aa5. https://finaxion.app/en/research/wyckoff-accumulation/dltr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.