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Finaxion Research · Wyckoff: buying the accumulation · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on MAR?

Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on MAR: -6.8 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
342.6%
Buy and hold
×26
CAGR
5.4%
Sharpe
0.17
Max drawdown
-54.5%
Trades
165
Out of sample
overfit
Years
28
1×10×19992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyMAR

Findings

  1. Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on MAR: -6.8 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -3.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +342.6% versus ×26 for buy-and-hold, with 165 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -54.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #72 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 11e887f77aa5.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 20-bar range with an 8-bar test window; active accumulation state → long; state lost → flat.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MAR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MAR → · Full page for Wyckoff: buying the accumulation →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on MAR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 11e887f77aa5. https://finaxion.app/en/research/wyckoff-accumulation/mar

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.