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Finaxion Research · Wyckoff: buying the accumulation · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on SMCI?

Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on SMCI: -10.2 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
674.3%
Buy and hold
×43
CAGR
11.1%
Sharpe
0.36
Max drawdown
-77.0%
Trades
119
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×100×123×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategySMCI

Findings

  1. Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on SMCI: -10.2 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +0.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +674.3% versus ×43 for buy-and-hold, with 119 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -77.0%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2016).
  6. It ranks #29 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 11e887f77aa5.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 20-bar range with an 8-bar test window; active accumulation state → long; state lost → flat.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SMCI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SMCI → · Full page for Wyckoff: buying the accumulation →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on SMCI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 11e887f77aa5. https://finaxion.app/en/research/wyckoff-accumulation/smci

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.