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Finaxion Research · Wyckoff: buying the accumulation · indices and ETFs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on TLT?

Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on TLT: -2.4 points a year over 24 years.

Total return
32.1%
Buy and hold
131.2%
CAGR
1.2%
Sharpe
-0.24
Max drawdown
-36.9%
Trades
171
Out of sample
overfit
Years
24
1×2.4×200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyTLT

Findings

  1. Wyckoff: buying the accumulation does not beat buy-and-hold on TLT: -2.4 points a year over 24 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +32.1% versus +131.2% for buy-and-hold, with 171 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -36.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2014).
  7. It ranks #189 of 227 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 11e887f77aa5.

Exactly what was tested

Mechanical approximation: 20-bar range with an 8-bar test window; active accumulation state → long; state lost → flat.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TLT over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TLT → · Full page for Wyckoff: buying the accumulation →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Wyckoff: buying the accumulation work on TLT?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 11e887f77aa5. https://finaxion.app/en/research/wyckoff-accumulation/tlt

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.