FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Reversión a la media · Actualizado 2026-09-10

Rebote en la banda inferior de Bollinger

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: divisas, en 4 horas, comprando varios activos en señal — bate en 17 de 961 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
10 / 489
Vs. índice
-8.8 pts/año
Rendimiento total
101.0%
Sharpe
-0.12
Caída máxima
-44.3%
Operaciones
294
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de Rebote en la banda inferior de Bollinger?

El rebote en la banda inferior de Bollinger bate a comprar y mantener en 6 de 40 mercados (15 %), con su mejor desempeño en divisas y su peor en criptomonedas, donde bate en 0 de 14. Funciona como cartera en 2 de 3 casos, pero solo en 15 de 958 activos individuales; su mejor mercado diario es Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) con +6,4 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 34 años y 35007 operaciones, mientras que su peor es NCLH con -23,7 puntos al año. De los 10 mercados diarios donde bate, 4 aguantan fuera de muestra (40 %), ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice y mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118, en 4 horas en 5 de 118.

  1. Rebote en la banda inferior de Bollinger bate a comprar y mantener sobre todo en divisas: 6 de 40 mercados (15 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en criptomonedas: bate en 0 de 14.
  3. Funciona como cartera, no como acción suelta: como cesta bate en 2 de 3, activo por activo en 15 de 958.
  4. De los 10 mercados diarios donde bate, 4 aguantan fuera de muestra (40 %).
  5. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  6. Mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118; en 4 horas, en 5 de 118.
  7. Su mejor mercado diario es Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): +6,4 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 34 años, 35007 operaciones.
  8. Su peor mercado diario es NCLH: -23,7 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto 30497848a621.

Lo que se promete

«El precio siempre vuelve a la media. Cuando toca la banda inferior de Bollinger, compra; cuando vuelve a la media, vende.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Cierre cruza de vuelta por encima de la banda inferior (20, 2σ) tras haberla perforado → entrada. Cierre alcanza la media de 20 → salida.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)+101.0%+3081.0%-2980.1%-8.8 pts294OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+46.3%+1565.8%-1519.6%-7.2 pts228OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-3.9%+801.9%-805.8%-8.8 pts218OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+23.0%+830.9%-807.9%-10.8 pts190OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+84.5%+820.3%-735.8%-8.1 pts178OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-1.9%+131.2%-133.1%-11.3 pts184OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · máx. 10)+1682.3%+3081.0%-1398.8%-1.9 pts5444

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · máx. 20)+11386.1%+3081.0%+8305.0%+4.3 pts14040

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · máx. 25)+20598.6%+3081.0%+17517.6%+6.4 pts35007

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 4 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 4 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL-62.8%+322813.1%-322875.9%antes de 1993344OVERFIT
AMGN+1224.7%+187272.6%-186047.9%antes de 1993352MARGINAL
AMZN+254.1%+265196.1%-264942.0%-5.3 pts210MARGINAL
AXP+183.5%+27029.4%-26845.9%antes de 1993436OVERFIT
BA+33.9%+108724.7%-108690.8%antes de 1993538OVERFIT
CAT+315.2%+172708.3%-172393.0%antes de 1993528OVERFIT
CRM+222.8%+5992.9%-5770.1%-5.5 pts178MARGINAL
CSCO+166.1%+222956.6%-222790.5%antes de 1993274OVERFIT
CVX+552.9%+68037.6%-67484.7%antes de 1993502OVERFIT
DIS+120.1%+189847.3%-189727.2%antes de 1993546OVERFIT
GOOGL+97.2%+13534.3%-13437.1%-8.1 pts166OVERFIT
GS+152.6%+2027.1%-1874.6%-5.0 pts244OVERFIT
HD+208.8%+1985758.9%-1985550.1%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
HON+271.5%+21058.8%-20787.3%antes de 1993519OVERFIT
IBM+41.6%+16203.8%-16162.3%antes de 1993526OVERFIT
JNJ+1753.8%+445196.6%-443442.8%antes de 1993518OVERFIT
JPM+631.8%+34522.5%-33890.7%antes de 1993378OVERFIT
KO+877.8%+199349.6%-198471.8%antes de 1993522OVERFIT
MCD+535.0%+236707.0%-236172.0%antes de 1993466OVERFIT
MMM+319.2%+31160.0%-30840.8%antes de 1993528OVERFIT
MRK+2972.9%+233375.1%-230402.2%antes de 1993508OVERFIT
MSFT+341.8%+859506.0%-859164.1%antes de 1993294OVERFIT
NKE+43.8%+32003.7%-31959.9%antes de 1993351OVERFIT
NVDA+309.4%+587720.8%-587411.3%-3.5 pts202OVERFIT
PG+177.7%+59706.6%-59529.0%antes de 1993534OVERFIT
SHW+1037.0%+231766.6%-230729.5%antes de 1993396OVERFIT
TRV+33.2%+12287.7%-12254.5%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
UNH+1140.5%+353381.4%-352240.9%antes de 1993337MARGINAL
V+118.0%+2961.1%-2843.1%-7.8 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+642.9%+915365.3%-914722.5%antes de 1993427OVERFIT
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+116.6%+147731.1%-147614.5%antes de 1993316OVERFIT
ADI+3069.5%+81534.0%-78464.5%antes de 1993388MARGINAL
ADP+495.1%+74205.9%-73710.9%antes de 1993392OVERFIT
ADSK+63.4%+58084.6%-58021.1%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
AEP+275.6%+13797.6%-13522.0%antes de 1993535OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+153.4%+3338.4%-3185.0%-6.7 pts164OVERFIT
AMAT+3048.0%+664974.8%-661926.8%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
AMD-47.0%+14863.3%-14910.3%antes de 1993366OVERFIT
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+352.7%+96277.5%-95924.8%-6.1 pts262OVERFIT
AVGO+174.2%+32512.1%-32337.8%-8.6 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+197.6%+123065.2%-122867.6%-5.1 pts204OVERFIT
BKNG-75.7%+922.2%-998.0%-13.6 pts200OVERFIT
BKR+72.0%+933.9%-861.8%antes de 1993318OVERFIT
CCEP-36.2%+7081.8%-7118.0%antes de 1993298OVERFIT
CDNS+1341.2%+16839.0%-15497.8%antes de 1993336MARGINAL
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+196.0%+47049.9%-46853.9%antes de 1993362OVERFIT
COST+367.4%+12800.7%-12433.3%antes de 1993306OVERFIT
CPRT+45.4%+21554.9%-21509.5%-9.8 pts272OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+372.0%+40426.1%-40054.1%antes de 1993348OVERFIT
CTAS+55.1%+123411.3%-123356.2%antes de 1993314OVERFIT
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM-21.6%+3002.6%-3024.1%-12.4 pts162OVERFIT
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+111.3%+17730.6%-17619.2%antes de 1993421OVERFIT
FANG+37.0%+1406.8%-1369.8%-12.5 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+498.6%+262350.7%-261852.1%antes de 1993318OVERFIT
FER+196.2%+593.7%-397.5%-6.8 pts144INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+87.4%+10184.6%-10097.2%-10.4 pts122INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+697.6%+33594.8%-32897.2%antes de 1993284OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+22.2%+58789.5%-58767.3%antes de 1993288OVERFIT
INTC+245.1%+49216.9%-48971.8%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
INTU+136.2%+15430.2%-15294.0%-8.2 pts268OVERFIT
ISRG+243.3%+18484.9%-18241.5%-3.6 pts220OVERFIT
KDP+34.9%+1090.2%-1055.4%-10.1 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-31.2%-42.2%+10.9%-17.6 pts98INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+1891.6%+289399.1%-287507.6%antes de 1993394OVERFIT
LIN+165.3%+10777.0%-10611.7%antes de 1993256OVERFIT
LITE+515.9%+5280.9%-4765.1%+3.6 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+1423.2%+159814.6%-158391.4%antes de 1993318OVERFIT
MAR+55.4%+2539.5%-2484.1%-7.4 pts228OVERFIT
MCHP+8736.1%+41961.5%-33225.5%+3.5 pts312MARGINAL
MDLZ+118.3%+461.4%-343.1%-6.3 pts226OVERFIT
MELI+53.1%+6911.0%-6858.0%-8.9 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
META+102.7%+1410.2%-1307.6%-10.2 pts108INCONCLUSIVE
MNST-9.8%+61968.9%-61978.7%antes de 1993344MARGINAL
MPWR+19.4%+15002.1%-14982.7%-10.2 pts164OVERFIT
MRVL-15.1%+1645.0%-1660.2%-9.1 pts220OVERFIT
MSTR-74.4%+1158.6%-1233.0%-13.7 pts206OVERFIT
MU+110.4%+70877.8%-70767.4%antes de 1993316OVERFIT
NFLX+8.0%+67643.2%-67635.2%-10.0 pts172OVERFIT
NXPI+61.1%+1721.2%-1660.1%-11.7 pts125INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+402.7%+36444.7%-36042.0%antes de 1993255MARGINAL
ORLY+405.2%+55255.7%-54850.5%-5.9 pts264OVERFIT
PANW+161.2%+4215.4%-4054.2%-7.9 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+229.7%+57106.4%-56876.7%antes de 1993378OVERFIT
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+640.4%+37760.7%-37120.3%antes de 1993462OVERFIT
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-4.7%+44.7%-49.4%-14.8 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+338.0%+50430.1%-50092.1%antes de 1993294OVERFIT
REGN+602.7%+3718.3%-3115.7%antes de 1993300OVERFIT
ROP+137.9%+26003.6%-25865.7%antes de 1993280OVERFIT
ROST-18.9%+55801.1%-55820.0%antes de 1993317OVERFIT
SBUX+17.6%+43019.5%-43002.0%antes de 1993258OVERFIT
SHOP+69.6%+8568.8%-8499.2%-9.1 pts72INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+393.7%+5482.1%-5088.4%antes de 1993284OVERFIT
STX-66.1%+15614.6%-15680.7%-15.9 pts188OVERFIT
TER-56.4%+31309.8%-31366.2%antes de 1993408OVERFIT
TMUS-22.5%+318.0%-340.5%-12.2 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+102.6%+578.4%-475.8%-7.7 pts190OVERFIT
TSLA+203.8%+23002.8%-22799.0%-8.0 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+221.4%+5509.7%-5288.3%-6.0 pts244OVERFIT
TXN+1008.7%+38040.6%-37031.9%antes de 1993453OVERFIT
VRTX+693.0%+12000.4%-11307.4%antes de 1993288OVERFIT
WBD+80.5%+302.2%-221.7%-8.3 pts194OVERFIT
WDAY+29.8%+305.5%-275.7%-12.9 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+31.2%+66202.2%-66171.0%antes de 1993378OVERFIT
XEL-8.1%+7388.9%-7397.0%antes de 1993410OVERFIT
A+40.3%+486.3%-446.0%-7.1 pts210OVERFIT
ABBV+87.7%+1156.0%-1068.3%-10.1 pts102INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+821.0%+62056.2%-61235.1%antes de 1993342OVERFIT
ACGL+169.9%+4268.0%-4098.1%-7.3 pts250OVERFIT
ACN+14.8%+1726.5%-1711.7%-9.0 pts196OVERFIT
ADM-7.9%+9265.6%-9273.5%antes de 1993350OVERFIT
AEE+65.1%+813.9%-748.9%-7.5 pts233OVERFIT
AES-73.3%+647.5%-720.8%antes de 1993276OVERFIT
AFL+257.2%+205848.4%-205591.2%antes de 1993379OVERFIT
AIG-97.3%+468.3%-565.5%antes de 1993419OVERFIT
AIZ+28.4%+1585.5%-1557.1%-9.8 pts198OVERFIT
AJG+56.1%+41899.5%-41843.4%antes de 1993346OVERFIT
AKAM+1006.4%-25.2%+1031.6%+0.9 pts232MARGINAL
ALB+10.2%+3091.3%-3081.1%-10.6 pts274OVERFIT
ALGN-35.7%+846.9%-882.6%-10.6 pts205OVERFIT
ALL-1.7%+3674.2%-3675.9%-10.9 pts262OVERFIT
ALLE+54.8%+265.9%-211.1%-10.4 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR+3.1%+100.6%-97.5%-14.8 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
AME+106.7%+25325.0%-25218.3%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
AMP+62.6%+2154.1%-2091.5%-8.8 pts176OVERFIT
AMT-37.0%+1310.2%-1347.2%-10.7 pts234OVERFIT
ANET+414.0%+5592.8%-5178.8%+0.6 pts96INCONCLUSIVE
AON+640.6%+29815.0%-29174.4%antes de 1993374MARGINAL
AOS+244.3%+13924.9%-13680.6%antes de 1993328OVERFIT
APA-53.9%+2417.2%-2471.1%antes de 1993376OVERFIT
APD+446.6%+20722.2%-20275.6%antes de 1993392OVERFIT
APH+501.3%+146951.6%-146450.3%antes de 1993274OVERFIT
APO+24.0%+1845.9%-1821.8%-12.6 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-1.5%+174.0%-175.5%-15.3 pts131INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+8.1%+624.3%-616.2%-9.4 pts224OVERFIT
ARES+7.2%+1191.9%-1184.7%-13.4 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
ATO+188.3%+13696.4%-13508.0%antes de 1993311OVERFIT
AVB+13.5%+42.3%-28.8%-13.9 pts93INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+373.3%+8544.4%-8171.1%antes de 1993460OVERFIT
AWK+148.0%+950.9%-802.9%-6.8 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+53.6%+40631.8%-40578.2%antes de 1993270OVERFIT
BAC+64.1%+4053.1%-3989.0%antes de 1993416OVERFIT
BALL+392.2%+49568.6%-49176.4%antes de 1993438OVERFIT
BAX+465.2%+1778.4%-1313.2%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
BBY-20.2%+89506.6%-89526.9%antes de 1993338OVERFIT
BDX+820.0%+21440.4%-20620.3%antes de 1993450OVERFIT
BEN+42.3%+130378.8%-130336.5%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
BF-B+95.4%+14873.5%-14778.1%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
BG+24.6%+1105.5%-1081.0%-8.7 pts216OVERFIT
BIIB+20.3%+6832.8%-6812.5%antes de 1993278OVERFIT
BLDR+27.3%+393.7%-366.5%-10.0 pts166OVERFIT
BLK+46.8%+13724.5%-13677.7%-7.3 pts184OVERFIT
BMY+337.2%+23662.6%-23325.4%antes de 1993422OVERFIT
BNY+377.1%+32230.3%-31853.3%antes de 1993434OVERFIT
BR-21.7%+1234.2%-1256.0%-12.3 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+223.4%+2072.5%-1849.2%-6.4 pts252OVERFIT
BRO+81.3%+76212.8%-76131.5%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
BSX+67.4%+1028.2%-960.8%antes de 1993290OVERFIT
BX-24.9%+1023.3%-1048.2%-12.3 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+162.0%+888.9%-726.9%-6.2 pts242OVERFIT
C-41.5%+1897.9%-1939.5%antes de 1993376OVERFIT
CAH+105.3%+39284.8%-39179.5%antes de 1993342OVERFIT
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+1154.0%+80461.2%-79307.2%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
CB+300.3%+6587.6%-6287.3%-6.6 pts278OVERFIT
CBOE+30.6%+1060.1%-1029.5%-13.0 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE-15.8%+2283.8%-2299.7%-11.7 pts176OVERFIT
CCI+233.1%+899.9%-666.8%-4.6 pts234OVERFIT
CCL-2.7%+1154.4%-1157.1%antes de 1993327OVERFIT
CDW+122.0%+858.2%-736.2%-8.2 pts112INCONCLUSIVE
CF+94.3%+5815.9%-5721.6%-7.8 pts170OVERFIT
CFG-16.9%+349.9%-366.8%-15.3 pts99INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+412.4%+93736.5%-93324.1%antes de 1993380OVERFIT
CHRW+269.4%+4307.6%-4038.2%-4.7 pts212MARGINAL
CHTR+194.2%+335.5%-141.3%-7.4 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
CI+42.2%+12980.8%-12938.7%antes de 1993338OVERFIT
CIEN-78.2%+195.6%-273.8%-14.9 pts238OVERFIT
CINF+82.5%+41545.9%-41463.4%antes de 1993368OVERFIT
CL+1061.1%+20919.0%-19857.9%antes de 1993440MARGINAL
CLX+189.8%+6184.2%-5994.4%antes de 1993414OVERFIT
CME+291.4%+6884.2%-6592.8%-5.4 pts180OVERFIT
CMG+116.2%+4221.6%-4105.4%-7.3 pts174MARGINAL
CMI-73.9%+28968.2%-29042.2%antes de 1993419OVERFIT
CMS-73.5%+630.8%-704.3%antes de 1993395OVERFIT
CNC+138.8%+4388.8%-4250.1%-6.5 pts220OVERFIT
CNP-33.2%+13998.0%-14031.2%antes de 1993457OVERFIT
COF+55.3%+5724.6%-5669.2%-9.7 pts268OVERFIT
COHR+364.8%+68288.9%-67924.1%antes de 1993328OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-79.6%+879.8%-959.5%antes de 1993342OVERFIT
COP+38.3%+13561.7%-13523.4%antes de 1993346OVERFIT
COR+30.4%+17062.1%-17031.6%-10.1 pts246OVERFIT
CPAY+226.8%+1383.7%-1156.8%-6.5 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+150.3%+2453.9%-2303.6%-8.1 pts269OVERFIT
CRH+60.3%+7617.9%-7557.6%antes de 1993276OVERFIT
CRL+13.6%+1210.2%-1196.6%-8.0 pts204OVERFIT
CSGP-35.4%+3390.6%-3426.0%-10.4 pts218OVERFIT
CTSH+181.3%+35498.3%-35317.0%-5.2 pts234MARGINAL
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+210.6%+15658.6%-15448.0%antes de 1993453OVERFIT
D+257.1%+17762.4%-17505.3%antes de 1993363OVERFIT
DAL-28.8%+339.1%-367.8%-12.5 pts153INCONCLUSIVE
DD+351.3%+10113.6%-9762.4%antes de 1993442OVERFIT
DE+161.3%+101089.1%-100927.8%antes de 1993434OVERFIT
DECK+738.3%+7024.7%-6286.5%-4.1 pts278MARGINAL
DELL+100.7%+4059.8%-3959.0%-8.0 pts72INCONCLUSIVE
DG+33.9%+550.3%-516.4%-12.5 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+140.9%+9626.0%-9485.1%-7.1 pts232OVERFIT
DHI+1348.0%+13111.0%-11763.1%antes de 1993286OVERFIT
DHR+639.8%+483557.2%-482917.5%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
DLR+327.4%+3540.7%-3213.3%-4.3 pts170OVERFIT
DLTR+275.9%+10731.5%-10455.6%-6.8 pts240OVERFIT
DOC-4.1%+6136.8%-6140.9%antes de 1993312OVERFIT
DOV+146.4%+29264.8%-29118.4%antes de 1993394OVERFIT
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-6.6%+5638.6%-5645.1%-11.4 pts166OVERFIT
DRI+83.3%+6998.7%-6915.4%-8.9 pts258OVERFIT
DTE+10.4%+35264.3%-35253.9%antes de 1993477OVERFIT
DUK+188.6%+16239.0%-16050.4%antes de 1993335OVERFIT
DVA+79.7%+4219.3%-4139.6%-8.7 pts253OVERFIT
DVN-47.5%+1411.9%-1459.4%antes de 1993330OVERFIT
EBAY+105.7%+14035.1%-13929.4%-6.7 pts237OVERFIT
ECHO+24.1%+227.3%-203.2%-10.2 pts172INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+881.6%+20174.1%-19292.5%antes de 1993434OVERFIT
ED-38.9%+45081.6%-45120.5%antes de 1993454OVERFIT
EFX+40.8%+77234.4%-77193.6%antes de 1993338OVERFIT
EG+144.9%+2975.7%-2830.9%-7.6 pts260OVERFIT
EIX-42.1%+14610.5%-14652.6%antes de 1993412OVERFIT
EL+113.8%+1551.3%-1437.6%-8.0 pts266OVERFIT
ELV+47.0%+2326.9%-2279.8%-8.7 pts202OVERFIT
EME+53.0%+59203.5%-59150.5%-9.8 pts232OVERFIT
EMR+645.6%+19839.1%-19193.5%antes de 1993466OVERFIT
EOG+209.4%+9279.7%-9070.3%antes de 1993294OVERFIT
EQIX+193.8%+240.5%-46.7%-4.2 pts212OVERFIT
EQR+35.2%+44.2%-9.0%-12.1 pts87INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+211.0%+19557.1%-19346.1%antes de 1993376OVERFIT
ERIE+1.6%+3362.8%-3361.3%-10.5 pts278OVERFIT
ES-46.5%+2960.1%-3006.6%antes de 1993429OVERFIT
ESS+223.3%+5274.8%-5051.5%-7.3 pts254OVERFIT
ETN+13.1%+116541.5%-116528.4%antes de 1993428OVERFIT
ETR+82.1%+19797.9%-19715.9%antes de 1993420OVERFIT
EVRG+221.2%+5086.7%-4865.5%antes de 1993440OVERFIT
EW+524.2%+6500.0%-5975.8%-1.0 pts204MARGINAL
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+517.0%+148324.6%-147807.6%antes de 1993360OVERFIT
EXPE+695.2%+916.1%-221.0%-0.7 pts182OVERFIT
EXR+213.6%+2698.9%-2485.3%-6.0 pts190OVERFIT
F-82.2%+6752.4%-6834.7%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
FCX-39.1%+1061.6%-1100.7%-12.2 pts246OVERFIT
FDS+100.2%+9088.9%-8988.7%-8.0 pts246OVERFIT
FDX+427.4%+53776.9%-53349.5%antes de 1993394MARGINAL
FDXFno aplica · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-13.6%+563.0%-576.6%-10.0 pts219OVERFIT
FFIV-54.0%+5374.0%-5428.0%-11.3 pts206OVERFIT
FICO+205.9%+94747.8%-94541.9%antes de 1993300OVERFIT
FIS+11.8%+363.8%-352.0%-9.1 pts212OVERFIT
FITB-31.3%+28280.0%-28311.3%antes de 1993377OVERFIT
FIX+36.2%+11966.2%-11930.0%-8.5 pts228OVERFIT
FLEX+321.5%+7898.6%-7577.1%-6.4 pts254OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+169.3%+24360.2%-24191.0%antes de 1993421OVERFIT
FSLR-56.6%+716.1%-772.7%-15.1 pts154OVERFIT
FTV-12.5%+100.1%-112.6%-16.8 pts76INCONCLUSIVE
GD+304.5%+221689.9%-221385.4%antes de 1993497OVERFIT
GDDY+24.3%+389.4%-365.1%-12.1 pts98INCONCLUSIVE
GE+105.8%+54356.2%-54250.4%antes de 1993545OVERFIT
GEN+151.2%+12085.6%-11934.4%antes de 1993316OVERFIT
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+310.4%+15015.5%-14705.1%antes de 1993386OVERFIT
GL+79.1%+12680.6%-12601.5%antes de 1993363OVERFIT
GLW+104.4%+19301.2%-19196.7%antes de 1993352OVERFIT
GM+65.8%+240.1%-174.3%-11.2 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC-37.9%+2091.1%-2129.0%-17.4 pts126INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+345.1%+12785.5%-12440.4%antes de 1993398OVERFIT
GPN+236.3%+2567.9%-2331.6%-4.2 pts222OVERFIT
GRMN+121.2%+5377.3%-5256.2%-5.8 pts186OVERFIT
GWW+528.8%+55300.2%-54771.4%antes de 1993432OVERFIT
HAL-22.2%+2860.8%-2883.0%antes de 1993434OVERFIT
HAS+141.2%+201529.8%-201388.6%antes de 1993386OVERFIT
HBAN+31.3%+3799.5%-3768.2%antes de 1993364OVERFIT
HCA+74.8%+1699.7%-1624.9%-10.5 pts138INCONCLUSIVE
HIG-35.4%+951.1%-986.5%-11.8 pts234OVERFIT
HII+76.7%+883.6%-806.9%-10.4 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+32.0%+659.1%-627.1%-11.9 pts104INCONCLUSIVE
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+39.8%+625.0%-585.2%-11.7 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+145.4%+77945.5%-77800.1%antes de 1993494OVERFIT
HRL+5.1%+19046.1%-19041.0%antes de 1993353OVERFIT
HSIC+54.4%+1913.1%-1858.7%-9.1 pts244OVERFIT
HST+84.8%+12843.9%-12759.0%antes de 1993379OVERFIT
HSY+202.9%+53964.6%-53761.7%antes de 1993358OVERFIT
HUBB+205.2%+3853.5%-3648.3%-7.5 pts278OVERFIT
HUM+262.5%+20168.9%-19906.4%antes de 1993352OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+130.8%+1526.1%-1395.4%-6.3 pts154INCONCLUSIVE
ICE+147.5%+2307.9%-2160.3%-6.7 pts190OVERFIT
IEX+144.8%+12761.2%-12616.4%antes de 1993278OVERFIT
IFF+87.2%+4754.9%-4667.7%antes de 1993412OVERFIT
INCY+193.6%+6471.7%-6278.2%-7.6 pts260OVERFIT
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP+164.3%+4590.1%-4425.8%antes de 1993544OVERFIT
IQV+44.2%+520.3%-476.1%-11.5 pts104INCONCLUSIVE
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+502.3%+9911.6%-9409.2%-4.3 pts268OVERFIT
IT-68.0%+6431.0%-6498.9%-14.3 pts254OVERFIT
ITW+421.9%+51254.1%-50832.2%antes de 1993432OVERFIT
IVZ+12.4%+1093.8%-1081.4%-10.3 pts264OVERFIT
J+381.8%+33544.7%-33162.9%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
JBHT+174.1%+24926.6%-24752.6%antes de 1993345OVERFIT
JBL-30.4%+41217.7%-41248.1%-12.0 pts250OVERFIT
JCI+40.1%+4376.5%-4336.4%antes de 1993308OVERFIT
JKHY+704.1%+71288.2%-70584.1%antes de 1993324OVERFIT
KEY+628.7%+1405.6%-776.9%antes de 1993349OVERFIT
KEYS+17.3%+1042.3%-1025.0%-13.0 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+2.3%+3036.5%-3034.2%antes de 1993277OVERFIT
KKR+116.9%+1784.9%-1667.9%-9.9 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+376.9%+16039.9%-15663.0%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
KMI+23.1%+117.5%-94.4%-12.6 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
KR+870.5%+182706.1%-181835.6%antes de 1993540OVERFIT
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+126.8%+22398.8%-22272.0%antes de 1993376OVERFIT
LDOS+86.0%+530.2%-444.2%-7.9 pts170OVERFIT
LEN+1630.1%+29032.9%-27402.9%antes de 1993372MARGINAL
LH+5.6%+1408.2%-1402.6%antes de 1993284OVERFIT
LHX+94.7%+8519.5%-8424.9%antes de 1993370OVERFIT
LII+23.6%+3122.4%-3098.8%-7.7 pts219OVERFIT
LLY+1250.2%+129720.0%-128469.9%antes de 1993454OVERFIT
LMT+209.2%+67444.7%-67235.4%antes de 1993518OVERFIT
LNT+121.8%+9408.5%-9286.7%antes de 1993405OVERFIT
LOW+179.5%+77328.4%-77148.9%antes de 1993380OVERFIT
LULU+85.4%+759.0%-673.6%-7.8 pts170INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+45.3%+24508.5%-24463.2%antes de 1993367OVERFIT
LVS-38.0%+50.3%-88.3%-13.1 pts196OVERFIT
LYB-17.3%+648.8%-666.2%-15.2 pts130INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+98.9%+1558.0%-1459.1%-7.7 pts168OVERFIT
MA+222.4%+14066.9%-13844.5%-5.3 pts146OVERFIT
MAA+248.2%+3525.2%-3276.9%-6.9 pts244OVERFIT
MAS+98.4%+7423.1%-7324.7%antes de 1993396OVERFIT
MCK-18.9%+6946.5%-6965.4%-11.8 pts234OVERFIT
MCO+81.8%+7753.9%-7672.2%-9.2 pts216OVERFIT
MDT+348.9%+51421.0%-51072.1%antes de 1993424OVERFIT
MET+583.9%+1176.9%-593.1%-0.7 pts246OVERFIT
MGM+27.5%+1501.4%-1473.9%antes de 1993341OVERFIT
MKC+761.3%+14401.8%-13640.5%antes de 1993440OVERFIT
MLM+202.8%+3089.6%-2886.8%-7.4 pts263OVERFIT
MO+1322.7%+2914781.4%-2913458.7%antes de 1993498MARGINAL
MOS-46.2%+268.9%-315.1%antes de 1993320OVERFIT
MPC-3.1%+2972.8%-2975.8%-14.8 pts116INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+196.9%+21192.9%-20995.9%antes de 1993430OVERFIT
MS-9.0%+6159.1%-6168.2%-11.2 pts248OVERFIT
MSCI+93.5%+2406.7%-2313.2%-7.7 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+453.0%+79243.2%-78790.2%antes de 1993534OVERFIT
MTB+175.0%+105049.8%-104874.8%antes de 1993343OVERFIT
MTD+240.4%+9346.3%-9106.0%-5.1 pts236OVERFIT
NCLH-71.9%-34.9%-37.0%-23.7 pts117INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ-8.8%+2371.2%-2380.0%-11.3 pts176OVERFIT
NDSN-10.0%+37769.3%-37779.2%antes de 1993348OVERFIT
NEE+607.0%+23772.9%-23165.9%antes de 1993425OVERFIT
NEM-8.9%+2099.8%-2108.7%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
NI+431.1%+5234.9%-4803.8%antes de 1993439OVERFIT
NOC-40.2%+23369.3%-23409.5%antes de 1993338OVERFIT
NOW+66.2%+2907.9%-2841.8%-11.3 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+73.2%+1442.6%-1369.4%-8.6 pts177OVERFIT
NSC+433.9%+24520.7%-24086.7%antes de 1993352OVERFIT
NTAP-64.4%+19659.8%-19724.2%-13.8 pts248OVERFIT
NTRS+99.8%+53074.8%-52975.0%antes de 1993368OVERFIT
NUE+1625.8%+70209.1%-68583.3%antes de 1993385OVERFIT
NVR+152.9%+61512.0%-61359.1%-8.0 pts244OVERFIT
NWS+122.4%+152.4%-30.0%-8.1 pts136INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+104.7%+122.2%-17.5%-8.8 pts136INCONCLUSIVE
O+238.5%+5366.4%-5127.9%-7.2 pts246OVERFIT
OKE+135.7%+19101.6%-18965.9%antes de 1993380OVERFIT
OMC+543.5%+15677.5%-15134.1%antes de 1993394OVERFIT
ON-84.0%+208.7%-292.7%-15.2 pts213OVERFIT
ORCL+27.1%+296729.4%-296702.3%antes de 1993340OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+4.9%+3580.0%-3575.1%antes de 1993344OVERFIT
PCG-4.1%+1389.7%-1393.7%antes de 1993424OVERFIT
PEG+205.7%+18884.4%-18678.7%antes de 1993351OVERFIT
PFE+767.4%+20062.7%-19295.3%antes de 1993434OVERFIT
PFG+183.3%+920.1%-736.8%-5.9 pts194MARGINAL
PGR+186.9%+819581.9%-819395.0%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
PH+10.2%+41129.4%-41119.3%antes de 1993374OVERFIT
PHM+140.0%+95847.7%-95707.7%antes de 1993368OVERFIT
PLD+117.2%+1782.5%-1665.4%-6.6 pts218OVERFIT
PM+155.8%+785.7%-629.9%-7.0 pts156INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+193.7%+37937.9%-37744.2%antes de 1993408OVERFIT
PNR+390.9%+11510.8%-11119.9%antes de 1993436OVERFIT
PNW-10.6%+2247.6%-2258.2%antes de 1993435OVERFIT
PODD-85.9%+831.5%-917.3%-20.5 pts165INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+83.2%+21327.4%-21244.2%antes de 1993370OVERFIT
PPL+120.2%+7311.8%-7191.7%antes de 1993359OVERFIT
PRU+68.8%+767.8%-699.0%-7.9 pts208OVERFIT
PSA+353.5%+13958.7%-13605.2%antes de 1993346OVERFIT
PSKY-26.3%-34.8%+8.5%-12.6 pts170OVERFIT
PSX+9.6%+1071.7%-1062.0%-13.9 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
PTC+129.4%+8443.5%-8314.0%antes de 1993294OVERFIT
PWR+112.7%+8155.1%-8042.4%-6.5 pts242OVERFIT
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL-60.2%+4611.6%-4671.8%-13.7 pts253OVERFIT
REG+302.9%+2046.5%-1743.6%-6.5 pts269OVERFIT
RF+46.3%+7230.0%-7183.7%antes de 1993375OVERFIT
RJF+207.0%+52691.1%-52484.1%antes de 1993332OVERFIT
RL+632.7%+1376.9%-744.2%-2.5 pts260OVERFIT
RMD+203.5%+43254.4%-43050.9%-7.2 pts248OVERFIT
ROK+144.8%+57325.7%-57180.9%antes de 1993339OVERFIT
ROL+1449.8%+36503.9%-35054.1%antes de 1993392OVERFIT
RSG-26.4%+1977.7%-2004.0%-9.9 pts204OVERFIT
RTX+102.5%+231131.9%-231029.3%antes de 1993493OVERFIT
RVTY+252.6%+25547.2%-25294.6%antes de 1993424OVERFIT
SBAC-34.5%+2259.6%-2294.2%-10.1 pts198OVERFIT
SCHW+821.9%+45501.9%-44680.0%antes de 1993318OVERFIT
SJM+434.0%+1119.0%-684.9%-5.7 pts284OVERFIT
SLB+218.0%+1125.4%-907.4%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
SMCI+250.0%+4155.7%-3905.7%-4.4 pts150INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+280.3%+12522.0%-12241.8%antes de 1993456OVERFIT
SO+144.8%+32617.4%-32472.6%antes de 1993317OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+160.5%+5330.6%-5170.1%-7.9 pts256OVERFIT
SPGI+168.4%+140503.3%-140334.9%antes de 1993404OVERFIT
SRE+94.8%+1463.0%-1368.2%-6.5 pts220OVERFIT
STE+553.4%+15491.4%-14938.0%antes de 1993288MARGINAL
STLD+31.5%+7831.8%-7800.3%-9.1 pts249OVERFIT
STT+126.8%+199686.1%-199559.3%antes de 1993342OVERFIT
STZ+241.2%+10007.0%-9765.8%antes de 1993288OVERFIT
SW+218.7%+775.0%-556.2%-5.4 pts168INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+609.2%+5887.9%-5278.7%antes de 1993410OVERFIT
SWKS+297.9%+1317.3%-1019.4%antes de 1993360OVERFIT
SYF+50.3%+325.2%-274.9%-10.5 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+367.0%+430371.4%-430004.4%antes de 1993366OVERFIT
SYY+932.2%+115885.9%-114953.7%antes de 1993442OVERFIT
T+244.3%+10219.8%-9975.5%antes de 1993330OVERFIT
TAP+784.6%+518.8%+265.9%antes de 1993436OVERFIT
TDG+76.0%+13285.3%-13209.3%-8.2 pts153OVERFIT
TDY+329.0%+7164.6%-6835.6%-2.8 pts228OVERFIT
TECH+197.3%+79246.8%-79049.5%antes de 1993298OVERFIT
TEL-8.5%+671.1%-679.5%-11.2 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-29.6%+10226.4%-10256.1%antes de 1993389OVERFIT
TGT+173.0%+90566.5%-90393.5%antes de 1993416OVERFIT
TJX+174.8%+36154.4%-35979.7%antes de 1993311OVERFIT
TKO+54.4%+1638.9%-1584.4%-7.2 pts222OVERFIT
TMO-16.8%+36784.3%-36801.0%antes de 1993326OVERFIT
TPL+3.5%+75277.1%-75273.6%antes de 1993352OVERFIT
TPR+15.0%+7766.6%-7751.6%-8.1 pts217OVERFIT
TRGP-70.8%+2202.9%-2273.7%-21.9 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+166.4%+3366.4%-3200.0%antes de 1993310OVERFIT
TROW+276.0%+35932.6%-35656.6%antes de 1993317OVERFIT
TSCO+148.5%+15199.0%-15050.6%-8.1 pts262OVERFIT
TSN+37.2%+4340.8%-4303.7%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
TT+70.0%+49748.2%-49678.1%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+204.7%+4901.2%-4696.5%antes de 1993453OVERFIT
TYL+336.3%+43359.1%-43022.8%antes de 1993388OVERFIT
UAL-36.9%+240.6%-277.6%-13.4 pts165OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+391.2%+14119.5%-13728.3%antes de 1993364OVERFIT
UHS+9.8%+15293.2%-15283.3%antes de 1993360OVERFIT
ULTA+51.1%+1721.3%-1670.1%-8.8 pts150INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+583.3%+30311.4%-29728.1%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
UPS+48.8%+233.2%-184.4%-7.0 pts234OVERFIT
URI-26.7%+7088.3%-7115.0%-10.5 pts218OVERFIT
USB+70.4%+44799.0%-44728.6%antes de 1993439OVERFIT
VEEV+101.5%+668.8%-567.3%-8.6 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO-9.3%+23394.0%-23403.2%antes de 1993342OVERFIT
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+456.1%+48759.3%-48303.2%antes de 1993432OVERFIT
VRSK+33.1%+648.8%-615.6%-12.7 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+140.9%+5322.0%-5181.1%-6.2 pts228MARGINAL
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+4.7%+1496.8%-1492.1%-9.6 pts232OVERFIT
VTRS+81.6%+1568.8%-1487.2%antes de 1993364OVERFIT
VZ+199.2%+4889.1%-4690.0%antes de 1993380OVERFIT
WAB+286.8%+4137.7%-3850.9%-6.3 pts246OVERFIT
WAT+29.8%+10865.4%-10835.6%-9.7 pts232OVERFIT
WEC+503.0%+23656.8%-23153.8%antes de 1993376OVERFIT
WELL+183.8%+58774.1%-58590.3%antes de 1993368OVERFIT
WFC+434.5%+63452.2%-63017.7%antes de 1993449OVERFIT
WM-21.7%+8471.2%-8492.9%antes de 1993313OVERFIT
WMB+1143.3%+11974.1%-10830.8%antes de 1993358MARGINAL
WSM+561.6%+69865.8%-69304.2%antes de 1993358OVERFIT
WST+184.7%+79208.6%-79023.9%antes de 1993348OVERFIT
WTW+123.8%+1181.6%-1057.8%-6.1 pts194OVERFIT
WY+46.1%+1781.4%-1735.3%antes de 1993438OVERFIT
WYNN+11.3%+1217.6%-1206.2%-10.9 pts176OVERFIT
XOM+1043.8%+183657.9%-182614.0%antes de 1993508OVERFIT
XYL+37.3%+455.0%-417.7%-13.1 pts109INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+13.5%+527.5%-514.0%-13.5 pts80INCONCLUSIVE
YUM+217.6%+4282.5%-4064.9%-5.3 pts244OVERFIT
ZBH+61.9%+292.2%-230.3%-7.7 pts214OVERFIT
ZBRA+134.8%+8617.7%-8482.9%antes de 1993296OVERFIT
ZTS+13.7%+179.3%-165.6%-13.7 pts108INCONCLUSIVE

Divisas · 4 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD-26.4%-3.1%-23.3%-12.4 pts190OVERFIT
GBP/USD+18.5%-21.2%+39.7%-10.3 pts216OVERFIT
USD/JPY-14.8%+40.2%-55.0%-10.8 pts238OVERFIT
USD/MXN+32.7%+49.9%-17.2%-9.8 pts165OVERFIT
AUD/USD-1.3%-6.6%+5.3%-11.2 pts180OVERFIT
USD/CAD+10.2%+1.7%+8.6%-10.7 pts177OVERFIT
USD/CHF+25.0%-41.4%+66.4%-10.2 pts229OVERFIT
NZD/USD-10.2%-8.1%-2.1%-11.5 pts196OVERFIT

Cripto · 0 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin-5.1%+17075.3%-17080.5%-14.1 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin-81.3%+859.3%-940.6%-23.0 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.0%-1187.4%-940.6%
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Etherno aplica

7 / 472 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 472

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
period 20, std_dev 2.0101.0%-0.12-44.3%-2980.1%
period 20, std_dev 1.560.7%-0.16-56.9%-3020.3%
period 20, std_dev 2.552.9%-0.23-35.3%-3028.1%
period 10, std_dev 2.081.9%-0.18-30.8%-2999.1%
period 50, std_dev 2.072.6%-0.14-39.2%-3008.4%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Sharpe deflactado: 0.39 (< 0.95)

Suite de robustez: MODERATE

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (+9.6% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (+83.4% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = -0.5628.

Deflated Sharpe 0.3913 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto 30497848a621 · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 12; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 19 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). Rebote en la banda inferior de Bollinger: funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/research/bollinger-rebote

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