FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Seguimiento de tendencia · Actualizado 2026-09-10

Ichimoku: comprar por encima de la nube

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: cripto, en diario, comprando varios activos en señal — bate en 30 de 961 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
25 / 489
Vs. índice
-6.6 pts/año
Rendimiento total
303.6%
Sharpe
0.07
Caída máxima
-32.3%
Operaciones
435
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de Ichimoku: comprar por encima de la nube?

La estrategia Ichimoku: comprar por encima de la nube no funciona de forma consistente en ninguna clase de activo; donde menos mal va es en criptomonedas, con 2 de 14 (14%), mientras que en divisas bate en 1 de 40. Funciona como cartera, no como acción suelta: como cesta bate en 2 de 3, pero activo por activo en 28 de 958. De los 25 mercados diarios donde bate, 11 aguantan fuera de muestra (44%), y ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice, lo que indica que el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.

  1. No hay una clase de activo donde Ichimoku: comprar por encima de la nube funcione de forma consistente; donde menos mal va es en criptomonedas: 2 de 14 (14 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en divisas: bate en 1 de 40.
  3. Funciona como cartera, no como acción suelta: como cesta bate en 2 de 3, activo por activo en 28 de 958.
  4. De los 25 mercados diarios donde bate, 11 aguantan fuera de muestra (44 %).
  5. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  6. Mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118; en 4 horas, en 4 de 118.
  7. Envejeció: en 56 mercados batía en la primera mitad del histórico y dejó de hacerlo en la segunda; lo contrario solo pasa en 23.
  8. Su mejor mercado diario es BTC/USD: +24,7 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 12 años, 179 operaciones.
  9. Su peor mercado diario es NCLH: -19,6 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto 3da70cf34031.

Lo que se promete

«Si el precio está por encima de la nube de Ichimoku, la tendencia es alcista y solo hay que estar comprado.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Largo mientras el cierre esté por encima de las dos líneas de la nube (Senkou A y B; 9/26/52); salida cuando el cierre cae por debajo de cualquiera de las dos.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)+303.6%+3081.0%-2777.4%-6.6 pts435OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+355.5%+1565.8%-1210.3%-2.9 pts350OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+92.5%+801.9%-709.4%-6.1 pts349OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+330.3%+830.9%-500.6%-5.2 pts295OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+155.0%+820.3%-665.3%-6.6 pts303OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+29.0%+131.2%-102.2%-10.2 pts306OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · máx. 10)+3841.1%+3081.0%+760.1%+0.7 pts4918

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · máx. 20)+28184.4%+3081.0%+25103.4%+7.5 pts10765

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · máx. 25)+1218.5%+3081.0%-1862.5%-2.9 pts14521

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 20 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 40 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL+51318.8%+322813.1%-271494.2%antes de 1993607MARGINAL
AMGN+4507.6%+187272.6%-182765.0%antes de 1993607OVERFIT
AMZN+6421.0%+265196.1%-258775.1%+5.7 pts355MARGINAL
AXP+416.2%+27029.4%-26613.2%antes de 1993694OVERFIT
BA+14432.9%+108724.7%-94291.8%antes de 1993770OVERFIT
CAT+4040.6%+172708.3%-168667.7%antes de 1993732OVERFIT
CRM+985.5%+5992.9%-5007.4%+0.4 pts271MARGINAL
CSCO+8038.8%+222956.6%-214917.8%antes de 1993486OVERFIT
CVX-54.0%+68037.6%-68091.7%antes de 19931003OVERFIT
DIS+43036.0%+189847.3%-146811.3%antes de 1993783OVERFIT
GOOGL+918.8%+13534.3%-12615.5%-0.1 pts248OVERFIT
GS+486.1%+2027.1%-1541.1%-1.8 pts342OVERFIT
HD+7918.6%+1985758.9%-1977840.3%antes de 1993634OVERFIT
HON+58.5%+21058.8%-21000.3%antes de 19931010OVERFIT
IBM+535.1%+16203.8%-15668.7%antes de 1993784OVERFIT
JNJ+1186.6%+445196.6%-444010.0%antes de 1993887OVERFIT
JPM+349.1%+34522.5%-34173.4%antes de 1993661OVERFIT
KO+879.4%+199349.6%-198470.1%antes de 1993921MARGINAL
MCD+1293.2%+236707.0%-235413.7%antes de 1993852MARGINAL
MMM-14.3%+31160.0%-31174.3%antes de 1993947OVERFIT
MRK+2545.3%+233375.1%-230829.8%antes de 1993853OVERFIT
MSFT+1870.7%+859506.0%-857635.2%antes de 1993557MARGINAL
NKE+4877.8%+32003.7%-27125.8%antes de 1993556OVERFIT
NVDA+76200.6%+587720.8%-511520.2%+18.5 pts331MARGINAL
PG+123.8%+59706.6%-59582.8%antes de 1993940OVERFIT
SHW+898.2%+231766.6%-230868.3%antes de 1993649OVERFIT
TRV+31.1%+12287.7%-12256.6%antes de 1993715OVERFIT
UNH+1547.6%+353381.4%-351833.8%antes de 1993576MARGINAL
V+207.6%+2961.1%-2753.6%-5.8 pts267INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+4521.1%+915365.3%-910844.2%antes de 1993750MARGINAL
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+3956.8%+147731.1%-143774.3%antes de 1993485OVERFIT
ADI-35.7%+81534.0%-81569.7%antes de 1993734OVERFIT
ADP+307.3%+74205.9%-73898.6%antes de 1993719OVERFIT
ADSK+2506.3%+58084.6%-55578.3%antes de 1993521MARGINAL
AEP+438.2%+13797.6%-13359.4%antes de 1993862OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+261.8%+3338.4%-3076.6%-5.1 pts298OVERFIT
AMAT+36773.9%+664974.8%-628200.9%antes de 1993554MARGINAL
AMD+242336.8%+14863.3%+227473.5%antes de 1993464GENERALIZED
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+12350.8%+96277.5%-83926.7%+5.6 pts426MARGINAL
AVGO+292.6%+32512.1%-32219.5%-6.3 pts318INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+123075.5%+123065.2%+10.3%+23.2 pts257MARGINAL
BKNG+3056.4%+922.2%+2134.2%+4.8 pts331OVERFIT
BKR-2.6%+933.9%-936.5%antes de 1993537OVERFIT
CCEP+238.7%+7081.8%-6843.2%antes de 1993585OVERFIT
CDNS+1004.3%+16839.0%-15834.7%antes de 1993528MARGINAL
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+526.9%+47049.9%-46523.0%antes de 1993589OVERFIT
COST+226.8%+12800.7%-12573.9%antes de 1993546OVERFIT
CPRT+1345.8%+21554.9%-20209.2%-2.3 pts419OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+72.0%+40426.1%-40354.2%antes de 1993645OVERFIT
CTAS+1285.9%+123411.3%-122125.4%antes de 1993607MARGINAL
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+282.3%+3002.6%-2720.3%-4.8 pts261OVERFIT
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+1173.7%+17730.6%-16556.9%antes de 1993760OVERFIT
FANG+57.0%+1406.8%-1349.8%-11.5 pts233INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+338.7%+262350.7%-262012.0%antes de 1993493OVERFIT
FER+30.5%+593.7%-563.2%-12.9 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+720.3%+10184.6%-9464.3%-0.8 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+121.4%+33594.8%-33473.4%antes de 1993487OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+923.1%+58789.5%-57866.4%antes de 1993479OVERFIT
INTC+4890.5%+49216.9%-44326.4%antes de 1993598MARGINAL
INTU+152.2%+15430.2%-15278.0%-8.0 pts451OVERFIT
ISRG+2469.7%+18484.9%-16015.2%+4.8 pts264MARGINAL
KDP+151.4%+1090.2%-938.9%-6.6 pts259INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-36.0%-42.2%+6.1%-18.3 pts131INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+2789.8%+289399.1%-286609.4%antes de 1993566OVERFIT
LIN+56.8%+10777.0%-10720.2%antes de 1993486OVERFIT
LITE+968.5%+5280.9%-4312.5%+9.6 pts141INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+16443.0%+159814.6%-143371.6%antes de 1993500OVERFIT
MAR+116.4%+2539.5%-2423.1%-6.2 pts404OVERFIT
MCHP+27.6%+41961.5%-41933.9%-10.1 pts526OVERFIT
MDLZ-56.4%+461.4%-517.8%-12.7 pts407OVERFIT
MELI+1794.3%+6911.0%-5116.7%+5.6 pts197INCONCLUSIVE
META+986.3%+1410.2%-423.9%+3.0 pts152INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+2633.3%+61968.9%-59335.6%antes de 1993480MARGINAL
MPWR+1119.8%+15002.1%-13882.3%+1.2 pts252MARGINAL
MRVL+819.1%+1645.0%-825.9%+0.4 pts326OVERFIT
MSTR+3760.5%+1158.6%+2601.9%+4.8 pts304MARGINAL
MU+31598.8%+70877.8%-39278.9%antes de 1993486MARGINAL
NFLX+7097.0%+67643.2%-60546.2%+9.0 pts269MARGINAL
NXPI+131.0%+1721.2%-1590.2%-9.3 pts204INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-85.4%+36444.7%-36530.1%antes de 1993636OVERFIT
ORLY+418.8%+55255.7%-54837.0%-5.9 pts518OVERFIT
PANW+388.2%+4215.4%-3827.2%-3.0 pts165INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+520.0%+57106.4%-56586.4%antes de 1993636OVERFIT
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+103.2%+37760.7%-37657.5%antes de 1993822OVERFIT
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-5.3%+44.7%-50.0%-14.8 pts159INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+2648.0%+50430.1%-47782.2%antes de 1993432MARGINAL
REGN+111.0%+3718.3%-3607.3%antes de 1993477OVERFIT
ROP+611.0%+26003.6%-25392.5%antes de 1993493OVERFIT
ROST+3668.9%+55801.1%-52132.2%antes de 1993473MARGINAL
SBUX+1008.3%+43019.5%-42011.2%antes de 1993431MARGINAL
SHOP+743.3%+8568.8%-7825.5%+7.0 pts137INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-46.4%+5482.1%-5528.4%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
STX+15522.8%+15614.6%-91.8%+12.3 pts242OVERFIT
TER+17409.5%+31309.8%-13900.2%antes de 1993668MARGINAL
TMUS+64.0%+318.0%-253.9%-8.3 pts274INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-13.2%+578.4%-591.6%-11.2 pts353OVERFIT
TSLA+1926.1%+23002.8%-21076.7%+5.3 pts208INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+115.1%+5509.7%-5394.6%-7.4 pts378OVERFIT
TXN+1270.4%+38040.6%-36770.2%antes de 1993726OVERFIT
VRTX+3.7%+12000.4%-11996.8%antes de 1993481MARGINAL
WBD+116.9%+302.2%-185.2%-7.4 pts271MARGINAL
WDAY+13.2%+305.5%-292.4%-13.9 pts197INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+12788.0%+66202.2%-53414.2%antes de 1993574OVERFIT
XEL+60.0%+7388.9%-7328.9%antes de 1993816OVERFIT
A+349.4%+486.3%-136.9%-2.6 pts307OVERFIT
ABBV+14.5%+1156.0%-1141.5%-13.8 pts207INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+224.5%+62056.2%-61831.7%antes de 1993653OVERFIT
ACGL+23.6%+4268.0%-4244.4%-9.9 pts512OVERFIT
ACN+398.4%+1726.5%-1328.1%-2.9 pts285OVERFIT
ADM+102.3%+9265.6%-9163.4%antes de 1993660OVERFIT
AEE-8.9%+813.9%-822.9%-9.7 pts438OVERFIT
AES+1341.3%+647.5%+693.8%antes de 1993489OVERFIT
AFL+779.7%+205848.4%-205068.8%antes de 1993730OVERFIT
AIG+1583.2%+468.3%+1115.0%antes de 1993666OVERFIT
AIZ+289.6%+1585.5%-1295.9%-4.6 pts297OVERFIT
AJG+979.1%+41899.5%-40920.3%antes de 1993533OVERFIT
AKAM+100.9%-25.2%+126.1%-5.9 pts340OVERFIT
ALB+116.3%+3091.3%-2975.1%-8.5 pts478OVERFIT
ALGN+1264.1%+846.9%+417.2%+1.9 pts284OVERFIT
ALL+38.5%+3674.2%-3635.8%-9.8 pts477OVERFIT
ALLE+24.7%+265.9%-241.2%-12.2 pts161INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-22.9%+100.6%-123.5%-16.8 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
AME+21.5%+25325.0%-25303.6%antes de 1993649OVERFIT
AMP+294.3%+2154.1%-1859.8%-4.4 pts283OVERFIT
AMT+285.2%+1310.2%-1024.9%-4.2 pts412OVERFIT
ANET+308.5%+5592.8%-5284.3%-1.5 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
AON+207.9%+29815.0%-29607.2%antes de 1993610OVERFIT
AOS+2659.5%+13924.9%-11265.4%antes de 1993513OVERFIT
APA-57.4%+2417.2%-2474.6%antes de 1993657OVERFIT
APD+1.8%+20722.2%-20720.4%antes de 1993733OVERFIT
APH+1314.0%+146951.6%-145637.6%antes de 1993462MARGINAL
APO+750.2%+1845.9%-1095.7%+0.9 pts181INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+46.7%+174.0%-127.2%-12.6 pts174INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-25.5%+624.3%-649.8%-10.7 pts443OVERFIT
ARES+215.1%+1191.9%-976.8%-4.2 pts143INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-53.6%+13696.4%-13750.0%antes de 1993768OVERFIT
AVB-26.5%+42.3%-68.8%-18.2 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+65.6%+8544.4%-8478.8%antes de 1993713OVERFIT
AWK+44.4%+950.9%-906.5%-9.8 pts249INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+632.6%+40631.8%-39999.1%antes de 1993432MARGINAL
BAC+575.4%+4053.1%-3477.7%antes de 1993645OVERFIT
BALL+485.9%+49568.6%-49082.7%antes de 1993713OVERFIT
BAX-82.6%+1778.4%-1861.0%antes de 1993743OVERFIT
BBY+69116.8%+89506.6%-20389.9%antes de 1993501OVERFIT
BDX-40.8%+21440.4%-21481.2%antes de 1993815OVERFIT
BEN+1767.5%+130378.8%-128611.3%antes de 1993537OVERFIT
BF-B-17.0%+14873.5%-14890.5%antes de 1993671OVERFIT
BG+78.2%+1105.5%-1027.4%-7.2 pts332OVERFIT
BIIB+158.6%+6832.8%-6674.2%antes de 1993483OVERFIT
BLDR+776.1%+393.7%+382.3%-0.3 pts220OVERFIT
BLK+390.5%+13724.5%-13334.0%-2.6 pts351OVERFIT
BMY-52.6%+23662.6%-23715.2%antes de 1993835OVERFIT
BNY-7.2%+32230.3%-32237.5%antes de 1993783OVERFIT
BR+546.5%+1234.2%-687.7%-0.9 pts239INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+40.3%+2072.5%-2032.2%-9.2 pts497OVERFIT
BRO+678.5%+76212.8%-75534.3%antes de 1993729OVERFIT
BSX+139.9%+1028.2%-888.2%antes de 1993462OVERFIT
BX+753.8%+1023.3%-269.6%+1.0 pts221INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+63.7%+888.9%-825.3%-7.8 pts411OVERFIT
C+120.3%+1897.9%-1777.6%antes de 1993646OVERFIT
CAH+436.9%+39284.8%-38847.8%antes de 1993567OVERFIT
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+234.5%+80461.2%-80226.7%antes de 1993644OVERFIT
CB+81.4%+6587.6%-6506.2%-9.0 pts504OVERFIT
CBOE+224.7%+1060.1%-835.4%-7.1 pts209INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+867.1%+2283.8%-1416.7%-0.2 pts283OVERFIT
CCI+37.6%+899.9%-862.3%-7.9 pts452OVERFIT
CCL+18.2%+1154.4%-1136.2%antes de 1993532OVERFIT
CDW+52.6%+858.2%-805.6%-11.2 pts175INCONCLUSIVE
CF+1013.7%+5815.9%-4802.3%+1.1 pts277OVERFIT
CFG+95.5%+349.9%-254.3%-8.0 pts152INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+410.8%+93736.5%-93325.7%antes de 1993651MARGINAL
CHRW-39.2%+4307.6%-4346.9%-11.1 pts434OVERFIT
CHTR+107.1%+335.5%-228.4%-9.7 pts193INCONCLUSIVE
CI+1792.1%+12980.8%-11188.8%antes de 1993550GENERALIZED
CIEN+381.9%+195.6%+186.3%-4.4 pts324OVERFIT
CINF+636.6%+41545.9%-40909.3%antes de 1993610OVERFIT
CL-51.2%+20919.0%-20970.2%antes de 1993836OVERFIT
CLX-7.1%+6184.2%-6191.3%antes de 1993759OVERFIT
CME+777.9%+6884.2%-6106.3%-1.8 pts321MARGINAL
CMG+823.9%+4221.6%-3397.7%+0.3 pts253OVERFIT
CMI+35307.9%+28968.2%+6339.6%antes de 1993626MARGINAL
CMS+1126.0%+630.8%+495.2%antes de 1993664MARGINAL
CNC+13.1%+4388.8%-4375.8%-9.6 pts342OVERFIT
CNP+185.6%+13998.0%-13812.4%antes de 1993930OVERFIT
COF+194.7%+5724.6%-5529.8%-7.7 pts433OVERFIT
COHR+2461.6%+68288.9%-65827.3%antes de 1993532OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+1665.6%+879.8%+785.8%antes de 1993491OVERFIT
COP+166.6%+13561.7%-13395.1%antes de 1993695OVERFIT
COR+1152.2%+17062.1%-15909.9%-2.6 pts385MARGINAL
CPAY+51.0%+1383.7%-1332.7%-11.6 pts209INCONCLUSIVE
CPT-17.0%+2453.9%-2471.0%-11.5 pts514OVERFIT
CRH-4.2%+7617.9%-7622.0%antes de 1993522OVERFIT
CRL+151.8%+1210.2%-1058.4%-4.9 pts371OVERFIT
CSGP+1274.8%+3390.6%-2115.9%+0.9 pts351MARGINAL
CTSH+1227.2%+35498.3%-34271.1%+0.6 pts359OVERFIT
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+387.6%+15658.6%-15271.0%antes de 1993722OVERFIT
D+23.6%+17762.4%-17738.8%antes de 1993720OVERFIT
DAL-58.9%+339.1%-398.0%-15.3 pts288INCONCLUSIVE
DD-52.6%+10113.6%-10166.3%antes de 1993880OVERFIT
DE+1021.6%+101089.1%-100067.5%antes de 1993705OVERFIT
DECK+701.1%+7024.7%-6323.6%-4.3 pts470OVERFIT
DELL+1556.5%+4059.8%-2503.2%+17.2 pts85INCONCLUSIVE
DG+31.7%+550.3%-518.5%-12.6 pts223INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+326.7%+9626.0%-9299.3%-5.1 pts367OVERFIT
DHI+117.2%+13111.0%-12993.9%antes de 1993494OVERFIT
DHR+988.7%+483557.2%-482568.6%antes de 1993729OVERFIT
DLR+135.8%+3540.7%-3404.9%-7.2 pts313OVERFIT
DLTR+475.4%+10731.5%-10256.0%-5.4 pts373OVERFIT
DOC+100.3%+6136.8%-6036.6%antes de 1993570OVERFIT
DOV+227.5%+29264.8%-29037.3%antes de 1993644OVERFIT
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+1412.3%+5638.6%-4226.2%+2.0 pts225OVERFIT
DRI+36.7%+6998.7%-6962.0%-9.8 pts473OVERFIT
DTE+146.0%+35264.3%-35118.3%antes de 1993984OVERFIT
DUK+197.7%+16239.0%-16041.4%antes de 1993666OVERFIT
DVA+288.2%+4219.3%-3931.0%-6.1 pts414OVERFIT
DVN+441.1%+1411.9%-970.9%antes de 1993565OVERFIT
EBAY+13.0%+14035.1%-14022.1%-8.8 pts422OVERFIT
ECHO+12.8%+227.3%-214.4%-10.7 pts226INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+183.8%+20174.1%-19990.2%antes de 1993717OVERFIT
ED+1697.2%+45081.6%-43384.4%antes de 1993760OVERFIT
EFX+4245.5%+77234.4%-72988.9%antes de 1993593MARGINAL
EG-61.4%+2975.7%-3037.2%-13.6 pts503OVERFIT
EIX+521.3%+14610.5%-14089.2%antes de 1993746OVERFIT
EL+74.4%+1551.3%-1476.9%-8.7 pts417OVERFIT
ELV+136.2%+2326.9%-2190.7%-6.7 pts334OVERFIT
EME+744.4%+59203.5%-58459.0%-4.2 pts462OVERFIT
EMR-54.6%+19839.1%-19893.8%antes de 1993869OVERFIT
EOG+208.1%+9279.7%-9071.6%antes de 1993483OVERFIT
EQIX+1354.3%+240.5%+1113.8%+2.4 pts353OVERFIT
EQR+2.8%+44.2%-41.4%-14.9 pts122INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+207.2%+19557.1%-19350.0%antes de 1993667OVERFIT
ERIE+190.0%+3362.8%-3172.8%-7.1 pts443OVERFIT
ES+85.1%+2960.1%-2875.0%antes de 1993748OVERFIT
ESS+187.9%+5274.8%-5086.9%-7.7 pts434OVERFIT
ETN+2104.7%+116541.5%-114436.8%antes de 1993689OVERFIT
ETR+1302.8%+19797.9%-18495.1%antes de 1993678MARGINAL
EVRG+79.9%+5086.7%-5006.8%antes de 1993810OVERFIT
EW-17.5%+6500.0%-6517.5%-8.9 pts379OVERFIT
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD-51.5%+148324.6%-148376.1%antes de 1993739OVERFIT
EXPE+50.5%+916.1%-865.7%-9.1 pts263OVERFIT
EXR+158.1%+2698.9%-2540.8%-6.9 pts308OVERFIT
F+3702.3%+6752.4%-3050.1%antes de 1993706OVERFIT
FCX+1050.1%+1061.6%-11.5%-2.5 pts387OVERFIT
FDS+606.1%+9088.9%-8482.9%-3.6 pts391OVERFIT
FDX+1020.9%+53776.9%-52756.1%antes de 1993675OVERFIT
FDXFno aplica · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+0.0%+563.0%-563.0%-9.5 pts378OVERFIT
FFIV+489.2%+5374.0%-4884.8%-1.8 pts319OVERFIT
FICO+213.8%+94747.8%-94534.0%antes de 1993538OVERFIT
FIS+152.8%+363.8%-211.0%-5.7 pts324OVERFIT
FITB+1822.8%+28280.0%-26457.3%antes de 1993572OVERFIT
FIX+726.7%+11966.2%-11239.5%-2.0 pts400OVERFIT
FLEX+1948.6%+7898.6%-5950.0%-1.1 pts456OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+2.6%+24360.2%-24357.7%antes de 1993804OVERFIT
FSLR+513.2%+716.1%-202.9%-1.4 pts176OVERFIT
FTV-23.4%+100.1%-123.6%-18.1 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
GD+12957.1%+221689.9%-208732.8%antes de 1993849MARGINAL
GDDY+27.7%+389.4%-361.7%-11.9 pts129INCONCLUSIVE
GE+3550.7%+54356.2%-50805.5%antes de 1993854OVERFIT
GEN+241.1%+12085.6%-11844.5%antes de 1993469MARGINAL
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS-15.5%+15015.5%-15031.0%antes de 1993699OVERFIT
GL+375.7%+12680.6%-12304.9%antes de 1993664OVERFIT
GLW+21477.2%+19301.2%+2176.0%antes de 1993546OVERFIT
GM+90.4%+240.1%-149.7%-10.3 pts175INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+332.7%+2091.1%-1758.4%-5.3 pts216INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-79.1%+12785.5%-12864.6%antes de 1993795OVERFIT
GPN+126.2%+2567.9%-2441.7%-5.8 pts321OVERFIT
GRMN+1948.2%+5377.3%-3429.2%+3.5 pts301OVERFIT
GWW+1420.1%+55300.2%-53880.0%antes de 1993672OVERFIT
HAL+1767.0%+2860.8%-1093.8%antes de 1993646OVERFIT
HAS+615.5%+201529.8%-200914.3%antes de 1993657OVERFIT
HBAN+39.0%+3799.5%-3760.5%antes de 1993670OVERFIT
HCA+43.1%+1699.7%-1656.7%-11.8 pts233INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+630.8%+951.1%-320.3%-3.7 pts411MARGINAL
HII+865.0%+883.6%-18.6%+1.7 pts138INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+35.8%+659.1%-623.4%-11.7 pts204INCONCLUSIVE
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+107.6%+625.0%-517.5%-7.9 pts169INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+2397.9%+77945.5%-75547.6%antes de 1993791OVERFIT
HRL+205.8%+19046.1%-18840.3%antes de 1993692OVERFIT
HSIC+16.2%+1913.1%-1896.9%-10.1 pts467OVERFIT
HST+388.8%+12843.9%-12455.0%antes de 1993656OVERFIT
HSY+389.6%+53964.6%-53575.0%antes de 1993628MARGINAL
HUBB+60.0%+3853.5%-3793.5%-9.6 pts490OVERFIT
HUM+276.7%+20168.9%-19892.2%antes de 1993572OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+487.8%+1526.1%-1038.3%-1.2 pts219INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-0.9%+2307.9%-2308.7%-11.2 pts305OVERFIT
IEX+972.3%+12761.2%-11788.9%antes de 1993499MARGINAL
IFF-76.5%+4754.9%-4831.5%antes de 1993763OVERFIT
INCY+1884.5%+6471.7%-4587.3%-1.4 pts369OVERFIT
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-63.0%+4590.1%-4653.2%antes de 1993983OVERFIT
IQV+121.7%+520.3%-398.5%-8.1 pts159INCONCLUSIVE
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+358.9%+9911.6%-9552.7%-5.2 pts442OVERFIT
IT+1145.2%+6431.0%-5285.8%-2.9 pts423OVERFIT
ITW+644.8%+51254.1%-50609.2%antes de 1993731MARGINAL
IVZ+368.7%+1093.8%-725.1%-5.6 pts367OVERFIT
J+1399.6%+33544.7%-32145.2%antes de 1993547MARGINAL
JBHT+214.2%+24926.6%-24712.4%antes de 1993594OVERFIT
JBL+3073.1%+41217.7%-38144.6%+0.0 pts432MARGINAL
JCI+544.4%+4376.5%-3832.2%antes de 1993544OVERFIT
JKHY+1927.6%+71288.2%-69360.6%antes de 1993601OVERFIT
KEY+7.1%+1405.6%-1398.5%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
KEYS+36.9%+1042.3%-1005.4%-11.7 pts176INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+309.5%+3036.5%-2727.0%antes de 1993432MARGINAL
KKR+371.6%+1784.9%-1413.3%-4.7 pts201INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+145.7%+16039.9%-15894.2%antes de 1993631MARGINAL
KMI+22.6%+117.5%-94.9%-12.6 pts202INCONCLUSIVE
KR+6727.9%+182706.1%-175978.1%antes de 1993810OVERFIT
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+1644.4%+22398.8%-20754.4%antes de 1993630OVERFIT
LDOS+74.6%+530.2%-455.6%-8.2 pts241OVERFIT
LEN-42.7%+29032.9%-29075.6%antes de 1993692OVERFIT
LH-13.8%+1408.2%-1422.0%antes de 1993529OVERFIT
LHX+546.8%+8519.5%-7972.7%antes de 1993532OVERFIT
LII+416.3%+3122.4%-2706.2%-2.3 pts330MARGINAL
LLY+344.4%+129720.0%-129375.6%antes de 1993793OVERFIT
LMT+2175.4%+67444.7%-65269.2%antes de 1993835OVERFIT
LNT+63.1%+9408.5%-9345.4%antes de 1993770OVERFIT
LOW+2223.7%+77328.4%-75104.7%antes de 1993578OVERFIT
LULU+635.1%+759.0%-123.9%-0.1 pts195INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+3422.8%+24508.5%-21085.7%antes de 1993554MARGINAL
LVS+182.3%+50.3%+132.0%-6.0 pts276OVERFIT
LYB+480.1%+648.8%-168.8%-2.7 pts185INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+101.0%+1558.0%-1456.9%-7.7 pts289OVERFIT
MA+1028.6%+14066.9%-13038.3%+1.5 pts265OVERFIT
MAA-19.2%+3525.2%-3544.3%-11.5 pts540OVERFIT
MAS-38.0%+7423.1%-7461.1%antes de 1993686OVERFIT
MCK+1031.3%+6946.5%-5915.2%-3.2 pts377OVERFIT
MCO+354.6%+7753.9%-7399.3%-6.2 pts433OVERFIT
MDT+774.8%+51421.0%-50646.2%antes de 1993721OVERFIT
MET-39.3%+1176.9%-1216.3%-10.2 pts447OVERFIT
MGM+32.3%+1501.4%-1469.1%antes de 1993496OVERFIT
MKC+108.7%+14401.8%-14293.2%antes de 1993747OVERFIT
MLM+157.1%+3089.6%-2932.4%-7.9 pts434OVERFIT
MO+86096.7%+2914781.4%-2828684.7%antes de 1993756MARGINAL
MOS+69.4%+268.9%-199.5%antes de 1993457OVERFIT
MPC+329.1%+2972.8%-2643.6%-4.5 pts229INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+203.6%+21192.9%-20989.2%antes de 1993729OVERFIT
MS+368.9%+6159.1%-5790.2%-6.2 pts418OVERFIT
MSCI+87.8%+2406.7%-2318.9%-7.8 pts248INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+14613.9%+79243.2%-64629.2%antes de 1993753MARGINAL
MTB+724.1%+105049.8%-104325.7%antes de 1993650OVERFIT
MTD+539.8%+9346.3%-8806.5%-2.8 pts343OVERFIT
NCLH-48.8%-34.9%-13.9%-19.6 pts184INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+131.0%+2371.2%-2240.3%-7.4 pts323OVERFIT
NDSN+302.6%+37769.3%-37466.7%antes de 1993741OVERFIT
NEE+555.9%+23772.9%-23217.0%antes de 1993656OVERFIT
NEM-62.7%+2099.8%-2162.5%antes de 1993611OVERFIT
NI+21.1%+5234.9%-5213.8%antes de 1993756OVERFIT
NOC+613.2%+23369.3%-22756.1%antes de 1993619OVERFIT
NOW+233.0%+2907.9%-2675.0%-6.0 pts181INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+272.0%+1442.6%-1170.6%-5.1 pts282OVERFIT
NSC+237.3%+24520.7%-24283.3%antes de 1993611OVERFIT
NTAP+2301.4%+19659.8%-17358.3%+0.4 pts415MARGINAL
NTRS+971.4%+53074.8%-52103.4%antes de 1993621OVERFIT
NUE+2051.2%+70209.1%-68157.8%antes de 1993583OVERFIT
NVR+6488.8%+61512.0%-55023.2%+2.7 pts406MARGINAL
NWS-13.5%+152.4%-165.9%-15.5 pts177INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-9.4%+122.2%-131.7%-15.1 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
O+2.9%+5366.4%-5363.5%-11.0 pts514OVERFIT
OKE+2089.7%+19101.6%-17011.9%antes de 1993645OVERFIT
OMC+449.2%+15677.5%-15228.3%antes de 1993619MARGINAL
ON+377.3%+208.7%+168.6%-2.3 pts342OVERFIT
ORCL+692.9%+296729.4%-296036.5%antes de 1993572OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+256.5%+3580.0%-3323.5%antes de 1993631OVERFIT
PCG+458.5%+1389.7%-931.2%antes de 1993734OVERFIT
PEG+280.0%+18884.4%-18604.3%antes de 1993672OVERFIT
PFE+29.5%+20062.7%-20033.2%antes de 1993765OVERFIT
PFG+48.3%+920.1%-871.8%-8.5 pts347OVERFIT
PGR+2963.1%+819581.9%-816618.8%antes de 1993620OVERFIT
PH+412.6%+41129.4%-40716.8%antes de 1993589OVERFIT
PHM+8096.7%+95847.7%-87751.0%antes de 1993588OVERFIT
PLD+107.8%+1782.5%-1674.8%-6.7 pts416OVERFIT
PM+69.6%+785.7%-716.1%-9.3 pts271INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+375.7%+37937.9%-37562.1%antes de 1993709OVERFIT
PNR+86.0%+11510.8%-11424.9%antes de 1993692OVERFIT
PNW+117.5%+2247.6%-2130.1%antes de 1993728OVERFIT
PODD+209.1%+831.5%-622.3%-4.8 pts222INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+639.5%+21327.4%-20687.9%antes de 1993614OVERFIT
PPL+616.8%+7311.8%-6695.0%antes de 1993604OVERFIT
PRU+47.4%+767.8%-720.4%-8.5 pts353OVERFIT
PSA+19.0%+13958.7%-13939.7%antes de 1993646OVERFIT
PSKY-4.4%-34.8%+30.4%-11.3 pts231OVERFIT
PSX+162.9%+1071.7%-908.7%-7.6 pts169INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-11.2%+8443.5%-8454.6%antes de 1993503OVERFIT
PWR+455.0%+8155.1%-7700.1%-3.0 pts418OVERFIT
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+692.8%+4611.6%-3918.8%-4.5 pts432OVERFIT
REG+43.1%+2046.5%-2003.3%-9.7 pts472OVERFIT
RF+98.9%+7230.0%-7131.1%antes de 1993588OVERFIT
RJF+642.2%+52691.1%-52048.9%antes de 1993587OVERFIT
RL+3.4%+1376.9%-1373.6%-9.4 pts410OVERFIT
RMD+301.6%+43254.4%-42952.8%-6.2 pts385OVERFIT
ROK+2005.0%+57325.7%-55320.7%antes de 1993636MARGINAL
ROL-45.4%+36503.9%-36549.4%antes de 1993728OVERFIT
RSG+3.4%+1977.7%-1974.3%-8.7 pts427OVERFIT
RTX+3633.5%+231131.9%-227498.3%antes de 1993807OVERFIT
RVTY+4265.6%+25547.2%-21281.6%antes de 1993665OVERFIT
SBAC+1222.8%+2259.6%-1036.8%+1.5 pts362OVERFIT
SCHW+1558.5%+45501.9%-43943.3%antes de 1993489OVERFIT
SJM-59.5%+1119.0%-1178.4%-13.9 pts443OVERFIT
SLB-42.1%+1125.4%-1167.5%antes de 1993633OVERFIT
SMCI+845.3%+4155.7%-3310.4%+1.2 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+14.1%+12522.0%-12507.9%antes de 1993730OVERFIT
SO+294.3%+32617.4%-32323.1%antes de 1993654OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+332.5%+5330.6%-4998.1%-6.3 pts442OVERFIT
SPGI+4735.3%+140503.3%-135768.0%antes de 1993667MARGINAL
SRE+76.4%+1463.0%-1386.6%-6.8 pts356OVERFIT
STE+89.1%+15491.4%-15402.3%antes de 1993467OVERFIT
STLD+95.2%+7831.8%-7736.6%-7.7 pts430OVERFIT
STT+4041.2%+199686.1%-195644.9%antes de 1993603OVERFIT
STZ+232.6%+10007.0%-9774.4%antes de 1993404OVERFIT
SW+167.9%+775.0%-607.0%-6.5 pts179INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+267.8%+5887.9%-5620.1%antes de 1993655OVERFIT
SWKS+29.5%+1317.3%-1287.8%antes de 1993590OVERFIT
SYF+56.5%+325.2%-268.7%-10.2 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+795.0%+430371.4%-429576.5%antes de 1993689OVERFIT
SYY+298.3%+115885.9%-115587.7%antes de 1993729OVERFIT
T+243.9%+10219.8%-9975.9%antes de 1993595OVERFIT
TAP-70.4%+518.8%-589.2%antes de 1993667OVERFIT
TDG+123.4%+13285.3%-13161.9%-7.0 pts336OVERFIT
TDY-33.0%+7164.6%-7197.6%-9.9 pts448OVERFIT
TECH+1227.1%+79246.8%-78019.7%antes de 1993539OVERFIT
TEL+160.8%+671.1%-510.2%-5.7 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+260.5%+10226.4%-9965.9%antes de 1993614OVERFIT
TGT+2636.4%+90566.5%-87930.1%antes de 1993665OVERFIT
TJX+277.7%+36154.4%-35876.8%antes de 1993616OVERFIT
TKO+46.7%+1638.9%-1592.2%-7.4 pts402OVERFIT
TMO+1559.0%+36784.3%-35225.3%antes de 1993609OVERFIT
TPL+124467.7%+75277.1%+49190.6%antes de 1993538MARGINAL
TPR+1551.6%+7766.6%-6215.0%+2.8 pts284OVERFIT
TRGP+813.3%+2202.9%-1389.6%+0.8 pts215INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+1736.8%+3366.4%-1629.6%antes de 1993405OVERFIT
TROW+289.6%+35932.6%-35643.0%antes de 1993526OVERFIT
TSCO+1023.3%+15199.0%-14175.7%-3.2 pts403OVERFIT
TSN+974.3%+4340.8%-3366.5%antes de 1993552OVERFIT
TT+620.9%+49748.2%-49127.2%antes de 1993662OVERFIT
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+1013.2%+4901.2%-3888.0%antes de 1993760OVERFIT
TYL+3201.2%+43359.1%-40157.8%antes de 1993583OVERFIT
UAL-44.1%+240.6%-284.8%-14.0 pts328OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+3.0%+14119.5%-14116.5%antes de 1993758OVERFIT
UHS+2375.2%+15293.2%-12917.9%antes de 1993517OVERFIT
ULTA+42.1%+1721.3%-1679.2%-9.1 pts279INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+109.9%+30311.4%-30201.5%antes de 1993721OVERFIT
UPS-87.2%+233.2%-320.4%-15.9 pts438OVERFIT
URI+3766.4%+7088.3%-3321.9%+4.2 pts284OVERFIT
USB+1110.6%+44799.0%-43688.4%antes de 1993669OVERFIT
VEEV+71.8%+668.8%-597.0%-9.9 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+709.4%+23394.0%-22684.6%antes de 1993595OVERFIT
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+364.5%+48759.3%-48394.8%antes de 1993732OVERFIT
VRSK+53.4%+648.8%-595.4%-11.9 pts223INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+1305.1%+5322.0%-4016.9%+0.4 pts361OVERFIT
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+49.5%+1496.8%-1447.3%-8.3 pts417OVERFIT
VTRS-61.5%+1568.8%-1630.3%antes de 1993579OVERFIT
VZ+114.6%+4889.1%-4774.5%antes de 1993563OVERFIT
WAB+37.1%+4137.7%-4100.6%-9.8 pts427OVERFIT
WAT+612.9%+10865.4%-10252.5%-3.9 pts389OVERFIT
WEC+69.7%+23656.8%-23587.0%antes de 1993710OVERFIT
WELL+834.6%+58774.1%-57939.5%antes de 1993629OVERFIT
WFC+125.9%+63452.2%-63326.3%antes de 1993766OVERFIT
WM+90.3%+8471.2%-8380.9%antes de 1993542OVERFIT
WMB+4258.9%+11974.1%-7715.2%antes de 1993568OVERFIT
WSM+2243.3%+69865.8%-67622.4%antes de 1993597OVERFIT
WST+9292.3%+79208.6%-69916.3%antes de 1993502GENERALIZED
WTW-32.2%+1181.6%-1213.9%-10.9 pts377OVERFIT
WY+0.5%+1781.4%-1780.9%antes de 1993806OVERFIT
WYNN+195.7%+1217.6%-1021.8%-6.7 pts302OVERFIT
XOM-1.5%+183657.9%-183659.4%antes de 19931021OVERFIT
XYL+131.2%+455.0%-323.9%-9.4 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+420.8%+527.5%-106.8%+1.9 pts121INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-35.0%+4282.5%-4317.5%-10.8 pts502OVERFIT
ZBH-7.3%+292.2%-299.4%-10.0 pts343OVERFIT
ZBRA+31.7%+8617.7%-8586.0%antes de 1993467OVERFIT
ZTS+87.0%+179.3%-92.3%-9.9 pts152INCONCLUSIVE

Divisas · 1 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD-7.3%-3.1%-4.2%-11.4 pts349OVERFIT
GBP/USD-22.8%-21.2%-1.6%-12.2 pts313OVERFIT
USD/JPY+8.9%+40.2%-31.4%-9.9 pts440OVERFIT
USD/MXN+36.2%+49.9%-13.7%-9.7 pts292OVERFIT
AUD/USD+11.0%-6.6%+17.6%-10.7 pts309OVERFIT
USD/CAD-14.1%+1.7%-15.8%-11.8 pts348OVERFIT
USD/CHF-45.1%-41.4%-3.7%-13.7 pts322OVERFIT
NZD/USD-9.9%-8.1%-1.8%-11.5 pts297OVERFIT

Cripto · 2 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 2 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin+28139.6%+17075.3%+11064.3%+24.7 pts179INCONCLUSIVE
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+1848.3%+859.3%+988.9%+4.9 pts183INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.2%-969.7%+988.9%
Solanano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Cardanono aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Dogecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EUR/USD-87.6%-78.9%-61.0%-26.3%-4.2%
GBP/USD-87.5%-79.8%-28.3%-25.0%-1.6%
USD/JPY-135.8%-109.1%-67.3%-49.6%-31.4%
AUD/USD+17.6%
USD/CAD-136.7%-129.1%-74.4%-39.5%-15.8%
USD/CHF-85.1%-80.9%-35.1%-7.3%-3.7%
NZD/USD-82.5%-75.6%-46.1%-14.7%-1.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-448.8%-375.2%-203.2%-2777.4%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-696.5%-534.5%-349.2%-1210.3%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-303.4%-233.7%-137.8%-709.4%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-262.2%-186.7%-158.1%-500.6%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-390.8%-313.3%-230.3%-665.3%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-89.6%-55.8%-22.2%-102.2%
AAPL-1349.6%-1332.8%-1080.1%-806.7%-271494.2%
AMGN-379.1%-377.9%-244.7%-188.4%-182765.0%
AMZN-836.5%-787.9%-719.2%-557.6%-258775.1%
AXP-573.8%-568.0%-476.1%-349.6%-26613.2%
BA-166.5%-154.3%-62.5%-12.6%-94291.8%
CAT-1513.0%-1496.5%-1230.6%-1145.0%-168667.7%
CRM-339.5%-336.1%-241.3%-241.4%-5007.4%
CSCO-570.4%-569.0%-491.6%-421.4%-214917.8%
CVX-358.2%-356.6%-290.9%-273.2%-68091.7%
DIS-114.8%-111.8%-32.8%+116.9%-146811.3%
GOOGL-920.8%-915.7%-865.3%-759.9%-12615.5%
GS-723.2%-715.1%-502.9%-486.9%-1541.1%
HD-324.2%-321.0%-233.0%-110.9%-1977840.3%
HON-280.6%-277.9%-211.5%-194.0%-21000.3%
IBM-286.6%-278.9%-128.6%-202.3%-15668.7%
JNJ-357.5%-355.8%-300.1%-199.5%-444010.0%
JPM-742.2%-740.2%-554.3%-538.3%-34173.4%
KO-293.4%-291.6%-240.5%-208.7%-198470.1%
MCD-285.6%-282.8%-242.5%-201.6%-235413.7%
MMM-200.3%-197.3%-130.3%-152.8%-31174.3%
MRK-412.7%-410.9%-336.4%-324.0%-230829.8%
MSFT-1077.0%-1071.3%-962.5%-916.8%-857635.2%
NKE-74.3%-70.9%-47.8%-12.9%-27125.8%
NVDA-27585.9%-27412.1%-26727.4%-23828.0%-511520.2%
PG-246.9%-245.1%-210.8%-166.2%-59582.8%
SHW-449.0%-446.6%-385.4%-290.5%-230868.3%
TRV-422.1%-420.1%-381.2%-306.1%-12256.6%
UNH-401.4%-396.6%-343.4%-302.9%-351833.8%
V-543.9%-542.5%-501.9%-409.6%-2753.6%
WMT-607.6%-602.9%-540.8%-483.1%-910844.2%
ABNBno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ADBE-317.0%-313.9%-275.7%-121.9%-143774.3%
ADI-814.6%-812.3%-753.2%-741.4%-81569.7%
ADP-441.3%-440.0%-355.9%-301.9%-73898.6%
ADSK-432.2%-422.3%-309.4%-341.4%-55578.3%
AEP-305.4%-301.7%-258.5%-141.1%-13359.4%
ALABno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ALNY-254.9%-248.6%-142.5%-188.5%-3076.6%
AMAT-2817.9%-2804.2%-2512.2%-2543.2%-628200.9%
AMD-16807.9%-16332.9%-16242.5%-15258.5%+227473.5%
APPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ARMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ASML-2158.7%-2154.1%-1941.9%-1805.7%-83926.7%
AVGO-3403.1%-3386.4%-3178.2%-3192.6%-32219.5%
AXON-3569.4%-3493.0%-2970.0%-3098.9%+10.3%
BKNG-421.6%-415.5%-299.9%-353.0%+2134.2%
BKRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-936.5%
CCEP-415.8%-413.5%-352.7%-299.4%-6843.2%
CDNS-1658.0%-1651.3%-1508.7%-1386.0%-15834.7%
CEGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CMCSA-135.8%-135.1%-116.5%-67.6%-46523.0%
COST-707.4%-700.4%-572.7%-462.5%-12573.9%
CPRT-700.6%-695.5%-501.9%-358.0%-20209.2%
CRWDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CSX-696.6%-694.9%-601.1%-499.9%-40354.2%
CTAS-1031.2%-1024.1%-843.7%-727.8%-122125.4%
DASHno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DDOGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DXCM-462.8%-459.7%-367.8%+48.4%-2720.3%
EAno aplica
EXC-318.9%-317.5%-283.4%-235.4%-16556.9%
FANG-393.3%-388.5%-336.9%-338.9%-1349.8%
FAST-656.9%-654.0%-589.0%-498.2%-262012.0%
FERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-563.2%
FTNT-2745.6%-2738.7%-2604.7%-2321.3%-9464.3%
GEHCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
GILD-214.0%-211.7%-178.6%-137.3%-33473.4%
HONAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
IDXX-780.4%-777.5%-710.9%-621.9%-57866.4%
INTC-333.1%-329.2%-236.3%-188.3%-44326.4%
INTU-414.2%-409.4%-343.9%-334.3%-15278.0%
ISRG-612.6%-607.7%-565.6%-192.2%-16015.2%
KHC-56.8%-55.5%-36.5%+18.0%+6.1%
KLAC-3063.6%-3059.2%-2981.0%-2719.6%-286609.4%
LINno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-10720.2%
LITE-4008.1%-4003.5%-3910.6%-3583.0%-4312.5%
LRCX-4481.4%-4473.8%-4254.6%-4187.3%-143371.6%
MAR-594.3%-584.7%-444.9%-482.7%-2423.1%
MCHP-391.6%-383.8%-277.8%-286.2%-41933.9%
MDLZ-182.0%-180.5%-154.4%-127.8%-517.8%
MELI-1800.1%-1778.5%-1627.2%-1447.8%-5116.7%
META-570.4%-564.9%-452.7%-442.1%-423.9%
MNST-194.8%-193.6%-129.3%-64.7%-59335.6%
MPWR-2250.5%-2243.2%-2202.5%-2045.7%-13882.3%
MRVL-2679.8%-2672.5%-2566.7%-2461.2%-825.9%
MSTR-743.9%-725.5%+469.8%+240.2%+2601.9%
MU-6675.8%-6583.3%-6248.7%-6362.1%-39278.9%
NFLX-743.2%-738.1%-513.1%-422.2%-60546.2%
NXPI-300.5%-299.0%-265.2%-241.3%-1590.2%
ODFL-1063.8%-1054.8%-927.5%-890.9%-36530.1%
ORLY-539.4%-536.1%-488.6%-443.1%-54837.0%
PANW-1299.9%-1291.9%-1106.9%-1124.8%-3827.2%
PCAR-580.1%-578.0%-502.7%-402.8%-56586.4%
PDDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PEP-196.8%-195.7%-149.0%-120.0%-37657.5%
PLTRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PYPL-155.8%-153.5%-120.4%-24.4%-50.0%
QCOM-438.6%-435.9%-334.0%-188.3%-47782.2%
REGN-155.2%-153.9%-129.8%-64.6%-3607.3%
ROP-244.2%-243.2%-185.6%-134.1%-25392.5%
ROST-465.7%-461.9%-432.5%-328.5%-52132.2%
SBUX-232.0%-229.6%-210.9%-162.7%-42011.2%
SHOP-5944.8%-5622.2%-5699.1%-5109.2%-7825.5%
SNDKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
SNPS-985.3%-974.6%-859.8%-657.3%-5528.4%
STX-3652.5%-3640.3%-3443.2%-3129.2%-91.8%
TER-1857.0%-1851.6%-1658.6%-1505.0%-13900.2%
TMUS-489.7%-487.6%-419.2%-409.1%-253.9%
TRI-362.7%-356.2%-283.8%-145.1%-591.6%
TSLA-2341.5%-794.4%-891.4%-1077.6%-21076.7%
TTWO-688.9%-687.2%-658.7%-596.3%-5394.6%
TXN-637.7%-636.7%-570.5%-572.9%-36770.2%
VRTX-440.8%-439.3%-416.2%-411.7%-11996.8%
WBDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-185.2%
WDAY-263.3%-258.5%-185.4%-179.6%-292.4%
WDC-1171.5%-1156.9%-1023.2%-938.1%-53414.2%
XEL-295.9%-293.8%-244.2%-187.7%-7328.9%
KDP-278.1%-276.7%-237.4%-201.6%-938.9%
USD/MXN-135.0%-126.1%-99.9%-50.4%-13.7%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18067.7%-16263.1%+11064.3%
Etherno aplica

5 / 472 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 11 / 472

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
tenkan 9, kijun 26, senkou_b_period 52303.6%0.07-32.3%-2777.4%
tenkan 7, kijun 22, senkou_b_period 44302.5%0.07-40.6%-2778.6%
tenkan 10, kijun 30, senkou_b_period 60574.5%0.21-33.6%-2506.5%
tenkan 20, kijun 60, senkou_b_period 120540.9%0.19-38.7%-2540.2%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 20%

Sharpe deflactado: 0.51 (< 0.95)

Suite de robustez: MODERATE

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (+99.6% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (+102.2% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 20% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 3.427.

OOS Sharpe far exceeds IS (>ceiling) — likely a lucky short OOS window, not genuine generalization.

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto 3da70cf34031 · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 12; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 33 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). Ichimoku: comprar por encima de la nube: funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/research/ichimoku-nube

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