FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Smart Money / ICT / Wyckoff · Actualizado 2026-09-10

ICT / Smart Money: el fair value gap

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: divisas, en 4 horas, en un activo suelto — bate en 18 de 961 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
9 / 489
Vs. índice
-11.6 pts/año
Rendimiento total
-21.8%
Sharpe
-1.82
Caída máxima
-29.1%
Operaciones
296
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de ICT / Smart Money: el fair value gap?

El fair value gap de ICT / Smart Money bate a comprar y mantener en 10 de 40 mercados (25 %), sobre todo en divisas, aunque en criptomonedas bate en 0 de 14. De los 9 mercados diarios donde bate, 2 aguantan fuera de muestra (22 %), y ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice, lo que indica que el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona. La estrategia mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118, mientras que en 4 horas bate en 6 de 118; su mejor mercado diario es MSTR con -5,4 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 28 años y 226 operaciones, y su peor es PANW con -19,6 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

  1. ICT / Smart Money: el fair value gap bate a comprar y mantener sobre todo en divisas: 10 de 40 mercados (25 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en criptomonedas: bate en 0 de 14.
  3. De los 9 mercados diarios donde bate, 2 aguantan fuera de muestra (22 %).
  4. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  5. Mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118; en 4 horas, en 6 de 118.
  6. Su mejor mercado diario es MSTR: -5,4 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 28 años, 226 operaciones.
  7. Su peor mercado diario es PANW: -19,6 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto baf59d3a43e0.

Lo que se promete

«Un hueco entre velas es un desequilibrio que el mercado siempre vuelve a llenar. Compra cuando el precio regresa al gap.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Aproximación mecánica: se detectan huecos de tres velas alcistas en una ventana de 38 barras; una vuelta del precio al hueco → entrada; salida a las 20 barras.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)-21.8%+3081.0%-3102.8%-11.6 pts296OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-17.8%+1565.8%-1583.7%-9.3 pts210OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-11.6%+801.9%-813.5%-9.1 pts214OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+7.0%+830.9%-823.9%-11.4 pts208OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)-18.4%+820.3%-838.6%-11.9 pts196OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+6.9%+131.2%-124.3%-11.0 pts186OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · máx. 10)-90.8%+3081.0%-3171.9%-17.7 pts6022

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · máx. 20)-73.8%+3081.0%-3154.8%-14.8 pts14696

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · máx. 25)-87.4%+3081.0%-3168.4%-16.8 pts91658

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 4 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL-14.6%+322813.1%-322827.6%antes de 1993342OVERFIT
AMGN+141.5%+187272.6%-187131.1%antes de 1993360OVERFIT
AMZN+33.9%+265196.1%-265162.2%-8.7 pts270OVERFIT
AXP-60.0%+27029.4%-27089.4%antes de 1993584OVERFIT
BA+15.5%+108724.7%-108709.1%antes de 1993572OVERFIT
CAT-14.4%+172708.3%-172722.6%antes de 1993598OVERFIT
CRM-0.6%+5992.9%-5993.5%-11.0 pts174OVERFIT
CSCO+4.0%+222956.6%-222952.6%antes de 1993262OVERFIT
CVX-20.6%+68037.6%-68058.2%antes de 1993496OVERFIT
DIS-35.6%+189847.3%-189882.9%antes de 1993566OVERFIT
GOOGL+12.1%+13534.3%-13522.2%-10.7 pts184OVERFIT
GS-23.3%+2027.1%-2050.5%-9.4 pts216OVERFIT
HD-4.6%+1985758.9%-1985763.5%antes de 1993424OVERFIT
HON-32.5%+21058.8%-21091.3%antes de 1993526OVERFIT
IBM-56.5%+16203.8%-16260.3%antes de 1993524OVERFIT
JNJ-17.2%+445196.6%-445213.8%antes de 1993641OVERFIT
JPM-15.5%+34522.5%-34538.0%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
KO-44.6%+199349.6%-199394.2%antes de 1993651OVERFIT
MCD+12.4%+236707.0%-236694.5%antes de 1993468OVERFIT
MMM-39.9%+31160.0%-31199.9%antes de 1993598OVERFIT
MRK-24.7%+233375.1%-233399.8%antes de 1993590OVERFIT
MSFT+1.8%+859506.0%-859504.2%antes de 1993318OVERFIT
NKE+30.5%+32003.7%-31973.1%antes de 1993438OVERFIT
NVDA+0.2%+587720.8%-587720.6%-8.7 pts212OVERFIT
PG-6.3%+59706.6%-59713.0%antes de 1993540OVERFIT
SHW-41.0%+231766.6%-231807.5%antes de 1993500OVERFIT
TRV-44.5%+12287.7%-12332.2%antes de 1993604OVERFIT
UNH+101.8%+353381.4%-353279.6%antes de 1993370OVERFIT
V-5.6%+2961.1%-2966.7%-12.4 pts136INCONCLUSIVE
WMT-57.0%+915365.3%-915422.4%antes de 1993522OVERFIT
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE-14.4%+147731.1%-147745.5%antes de 1993292OVERFIT
ADI+133.6%+81534.0%-81400.4%antes de 1993492OVERFIT
ADP-21.5%+74205.9%-74227.4%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
ADSK-8.6%+58084.6%-58093.2%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
AEP-56.4%+13797.6%-13854.0%antes de 1993490OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY-5.9%+3338.4%-3344.3%-11.3 pts126OVERFIT
AMAT+64.6%+664974.8%-664910.3%antes de 1993448OVERFIT
AMD+81.5%+14863.3%-14781.8%antes de 1993402OVERFIT
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+20.1%+96277.5%-96257.3%-10.4 pts308OVERFIT
AVGO+54.3%+32512.1%-32457.8%-12.1 pts140INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+38.8%+123065.2%-123026.4%-8.2 pts186OVERFIT
BKNG+89.7%+922.2%-832.5%-6.2 pts261OVERFIT
BKR-53.4%+933.9%-987.2%antes de 1993234OVERFIT
CCEP-33.8%+7081.8%-7115.6%antes de 1993330OVERFIT
CDNS+137.2%+16839.0%-16701.8%antes de 1993350OVERFIT
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA-54.8%+47049.9%-47104.7%antes de 1993502OVERFIT
COST+17.9%+12800.7%-12782.8%antes de 1993368OVERFIT
CPRT+3.5%+21554.9%-21551.5%-10.8 pts222OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX-40.6%+40426.1%-40466.7%antes de 1993403OVERFIT
CTAS+9.9%+123411.3%-123401.4%antes de 1993430OVERFIT
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM-24.1%+3002.6%-3026.7%-12.6 pts164OVERFIT
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC-2.9%+17730.6%-17733.5%antes de 1993438OVERFIT
FANG+51.1%+1406.8%-1355.7%-11.8 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
FAST-2.8%+262350.7%-262353.5%antes de 1993336OVERFIT
FER-19.7%+593.7%-613.4%-16.4 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+11.9%+10184.6%-10172.7%-13.5 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+23.6%+33594.8%-33571.1%antes de 1993234OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+3.3%+58789.5%-58786.1%antes de 1993312OVERFIT
INTC-38.6%+49216.9%-49255.5%antes de 1993394OVERFIT
INTU-18.8%+15430.2%-15449.0%-11.4 pts232OVERFIT
ISRG-45.3%+18484.9%-18530.1%-10.7 pts208OVERFIT
KDP-6.0%+1090.2%-1096.2%-12.1 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-6.9%-42.2%+35.3%-15.0 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC-56.5%+289399.1%-289455.6%antes de 1993468OVERFIT
LIN-2.5%+10777.0%-10779.5%antes de 1993264OVERFIT
LITE+63.6%+5280.9%-5217.3%-9.7 pts72INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+46.6%+159814.6%-159768.0%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
MAR+1.1%+2539.5%-2538.3%-8.9 pts258OVERFIT
MCHP-7.8%+41961.5%-41969.3%-11.0 pts258OVERFIT
MDLZ-6.5%+461.4%-467.9%-9.7 pts158OVERFIT
MELI+44.3%+6911.0%-6866.8%-9.2 pts144INCONCLUSIVE
META+15.0%+1410.2%-1395.3%-14.2 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
MNST-36.7%+61968.9%-62005.6%antes de 1993396OVERFIT
MPWR-3.9%+15002.1%-15006.0%-11.2 pts162OVERFIT
MRVL-12.0%+1645.0%-1657.0%-9.0 pts224OVERFIT
MSTR+170.3%+1158.6%-988.3%-5.4 pts226OVERFIT
MU+44.9%+70877.8%-70832.9%antes de 1993306OVERFIT
NFLX+60.6%+67643.2%-67582.6%-8.3 pts176OVERFIT
NXPI-29.7%+1721.2%-1750.8%-16.9 pts140INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+14.9%+36444.7%-36429.8%antes de 1993406OVERFIT
ORLY+24.2%+55255.7%-55231.5%-10.3 pts262OVERFIT
PANW-48.9%+4215.4%-4264.3%-19.6 pts108INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+6.3%+57106.4%-57100.0%antes de 1993426OVERFIT
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP-8.7%+37760.7%-37769.4%antes de 1993482OVERFIT
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL+10.8%+44.7%-33.9%-13.4 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM-28.2%+50430.1%-50458.3%antes de 1993254OVERFIT
REGN-13.4%+3718.3%-3731.7%antes de 1993216OVERFIT
ROP+37.7%+26003.6%-25965.9%antes de 1993264OVERFIT
ROST+81.2%+55801.1%-55719.9%antes de 1993352OVERFIT
SBUX-38.1%+43019.5%-43057.7%antes de 1993304OVERFIT
SHOP-4.7%+8568.8%-8573.5%-14.3 pts76INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+2.3%+5482.1%-5479.8%antes de 1993220OVERFIT
STX+52.9%+15614.6%-15561.7%-9.6 pts148OVERFIT
TER-53.2%+31309.8%-31363.0%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
TMUS-9.1%+318.0%-327.1%-11.4 pts156INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-21.9%+578.4%-600.3%-11.7 pts210OVERFIT
TSLA+88.8%+23002.8%-22913.9%-11.1 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO-18.1%+5509.7%-5527.8%-10.8 pts222OVERFIT
TXN+62.3%+38040.6%-37978.3%antes de 1993430OVERFIT
VRTX+24.0%+12000.4%-11976.5%antes de 1993238OVERFIT
WBD-7.3%+302.2%-309.4%-11.5 pts140OVERFIT
WDAY-16.6%+305.5%-322.1%-16.1 pts102INCONCLUSIVE
WDC-48.2%+66202.2%-66250.4%antes de 1993428OVERFIT
XEL-31.8%+7388.9%-7420.7%antes de 1993444OVERFIT
A+8.8%+486.3%-477.6%-8.1 pts182OVERFIT
ABBV+14.5%+1156.0%-1141.5%-13.8 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
ABT-34.0%+62056.2%-62090.1%antes de 1993386OVERFIT
ACGL-26.7%+4268.0%-4294.7%-11.6 pts258OVERFIT
ACN+4.3%+1726.5%-1722.2%-9.4 pts180OVERFIT
ADM-1.7%+9265.6%-9267.3%antes de 1993396OVERFIT
AEE+1.5%+813.9%-812.5%-9.3 pts188OVERFIT
AES+16.9%+647.5%-630.6%antes de 1993228OVERFIT
AFL-27.3%+205848.4%-205875.7%antes de 1993374OVERFIT
AIG+73.3%+468.3%-395.0%antes de 1993592OVERFIT
AIZ-12.2%+1585.5%-1597.7%-11.4 pts194OVERFIT
AJG-20.5%+41899.5%-41920.0%antes de 1993490OVERFIT
AKAM+0.9%-25.2%+26.1%-8.5 pts180OVERFIT
ALB+46.6%+3091.3%-3044.7%-9.7 pts240OVERFIT
ALGN-33.7%+846.9%-880.6%-10.5 pts174OVERFIT
ALL-13.8%+3674.2%-3688.0%-11.3 pts298OVERFIT
ALLE+20.6%+265.9%-245.3%-12.5 pts108INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-14.1%+100.6%-114.7%-16.1 pts202INCONCLUSIVE
AME-19.3%+25325.0%-25344.3%antes de 1993344OVERFIT
AMP+16.3%+2154.1%-2137.8%-10.4 pts164OVERFIT
AMT-25.1%+1310.2%-1335.2%-10.1 pts222OVERFIT
ANET-6.3%+5592.8%-5599.1%-14.3 pts74INCONCLUSIVE
AON-20.7%+29815.0%-29835.8%antes de 1993400OVERFIT
AOS-37.5%+13924.9%-13962.5%antes de 1993560OVERFIT
APA-18.9%+2417.2%-2436.1%antes de 1993426OVERFIT
APD-40.8%+20722.2%-20763.0%antes de 1993381OVERFIT
APH-35.3%+146951.6%-146986.9%antes de 1993336OVERFIT
APO-4.5%+1845.9%-1850.4%-14.3 pts93INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-19.1%+174.0%-193.0%-16.7 pts134INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-14.4%+624.3%-638.7%-10.2 pts220OVERFIT
ARES+20.0%+1191.9%-1171.9%-12.5 pts84INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-25.6%+13696.4%-13721.9%antes de 1993430OVERFIT
AVB-1.9%+42.3%-44.2%-15.4 pts64INCONCLUSIVE
AVY-45.9%+8544.4%-8590.3%antes de 1993550OVERFIT
AWK+29.2%+950.9%-921.7%-10.4 pts126INCONCLUSIVE
AZO-45.1%+40631.8%-40676.9%antes de 1993284OVERFIT
BAC-37.5%+4053.1%-4090.6%antes de 1993460OVERFIT
BALL-39.7%+49568.6%-49608.3%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
BAX-24.9%+1778.4%-1803.4%antes de 1993322OVERFIT
BBY+56.9%+89506.6%-89449.8%antes de 1993332OVERFIT
BDX-29.2%+21440.4%-21469.6%antes de 1993454OVERFIT
BEN-43.6%+130378.8%-130422.4%antes de 1993352OVERFIT
BF-B-56.1%+14873.5%-14929.6%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
BG+13.7%+1105.5%-1091.8%-9.0 pts190OVERFIT
BIIB-7.4%+6832.8%-6840.2%antes de 1993312OVERFIT
BLDR+22.6%+393.7%-371.1%-10.2 pts136OVERFIT
BLK-20.7%+13724.5%-13745.2%-9.6 pts222OVERFIT
BMY-18.7%+23662.6%-23681.3%antes de 1993440OVERFIT
BNY-23.2%+32230.3%-32253.5%antes de 1993542OVERFIT
BR-5.6%+1234.2%-1239.8%-11.3 pts172INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B-34.3%+2072.5%-2106.9%-11.8 pts248OVERFIT
BRO+59.4%+76212.8%-76153.4%antes de 1993484OVERFIT
BSX-35.8%+1028.2%-1064.0%antes de 1993292OVERFIT
BX-42.6%+1023.3%-1065.9%-13.7 pts139INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+20.6%+888.9%-868.3%-8.9 pts164OVERFIT
C-65.3%+1897.9%-1963.3%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
CAH-27.0%+39284.8%-39311.7%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+16.1%+80461.2%-80445.2%antes de 1993398OVERFIT
CB-28.6%+6587.6%-6616.2%-11.8 pts280OVERFIT
CBOE+7.8%+1060.1%-1052.2%-14.1 pts92INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+51.1%+2283.8%-2232.7%-9.1 pts206OVERFIT
CCI+12.1%+899.9%-887.8%-8.6 pts244OVERFIT
CCL-21.2%+1154.4%-1175.6%antes de 1993330OVERFIT
CDW-22.7%+858.2%-880.9%-16.4 pts82INCONCLUSIVE
CF+45.0%+5815.9%-5770.9%-9.3 pts149OVERFIT
CFG+3.5%+349.9%-346.4%-13.5 pts74INCONCLUSIVE
CHD-41.5%+93736.5%-93778.0%antes de 1993382OVERFIT
CHRW-44.4%+4307.6%-4352.0%-11.4 pts166OVERFIT
CHTR-23.6%+335.5%-359.2%-15.8 pts130INCONCLUSIVE
CI+7.8%+12980.8%-12973.0%antes de 1993374OVERFIT
CIEN-22.8%+195.6%-218.4%-10.7 pts224OVERFIT
CINF+19.6%+41545.9%-41526.4%antes de 1993478OVERFIT
CL-48.0%+20919.0%-20967.0%antes de 1993482OVERFIT
CLX-64.3%+6184.2%-6248.5%antes de 1993446OVERFIT
CME+20.0%+6884.2%-6864.2%-10.6 pts188OVERFIT
CMG+6.5%+4221.6%-4215.1%-10.8 pts155OVERFIT
CMI+39.7%+28968.2%-28928.5%antes de 1993474OVERFIT
CMS-4.1%+630.8%-634.9%antes de 1993504OVERFIT
CNC+31.7%+4388.8%-4357.1%-8.9 pts174OVERFIT
CNP-3.3%+13998.0%-14001.3%antes de 1993598OVERFIT
COF+16.3%+5724.6%-5708.2%-10.6 pts250OVERFIT
COHR-65.6%+68288.9%-68354.5%antes de 1993326OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-27.8%+879.8%-907.6%antes de 1993366OVERFIT
COP-67.1%+13561.7%-13628.8%antes de 1993382OVERFIT
COR-7.2%+17062.1%-17069.2%-11.2 pts204OVERFIT
CPAY-10.1%+1383.7%-1393.8%-15.0 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
CPT-7.1%+2453.9%-2461.1%-11.2 pts258OVERFIT
CRH-43.6%+7617.9%-7661.5%antes de 1993496OVERFIT
CRL-3.1%+1210.2%-1213.3%-8.6 pts212OVERFIT
CSGP-28.8%+3390.6%-3419.5%-10.0 pts236OVERFIT
CTSH+103.2%+35498.3%-35395.1%-6.4 pts240OVERFIT
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS-23.4%+15658.6%-15682.0%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
D-18.0%+17762.4%-17780.4%antes de 1993350OVERFIT
DAL-21.5%+339.1%-360.6%-12.0 pts116INCONCLUSIVE
DD-42.3%+10113.6%-10155.9%antes de 1993454OVERFIT
DE-48.6%+101089.1%-101137.7%antes de 1993428OVERFIT
DECK-75.7%+7024.7%-7100.4%-15.0 pts258OVERFIT
DELL-7.3%+4059.8%-4067.1%-15.9 pts92INCONCLUSIVE
DG-19.5%+550.3%-569.7%-15.6 pts116INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+18.1%+9626.0%-9607.9%-9.6 pts244OVERFIT
DHI-38.6%+13111.0%-13149.6%antes de 1993350OVERFIT
DHR-64.8%+483557.2%-483622.0%antes de 1993522OVERFIT
DLR+15.1%+3540.7%-3525.6%-10.5 pts156OVERFIT
DLTR+44.3%+10731.5%-10687.2%-9.9 pts260OVERFIT
DOC-15.1%+6136.8%-6151.9%antes de 1993320OVERFIT
DOV-24.9%+29264.8%-29289.7%antes de 1993392OVERFIT
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-34.1%+5638.6%-5672.6%-13.0 pts188OVERFIT
DRI-3.9%+6998.7%-7002.6%-11.0 pts218OVERFIT
DTE-42.5%+35264.3%-35306.8%antes de 1993594OVERFIT
DUK-8.7%+16239.0%-16247.7%antes de 1993414OVERFIT
DVA-51.0%+4219.3%-4270.3%-12.9 pts278OVERFIT
DVN+40.0%+1411.9%-1371.9%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
EBAY-0.4%+14035.1%-14035.5%-9.3 pts226OVERFIT
ECHO-6.2%+227.3%-233.6%-11.7 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
ECL-66.7%+20174.1%-20240.8%antes de 1993646OVERFIT
ED-51.6%+45081.6%-45133.3%antes de 1993576OVERFIT
EFX+15.8%+77234.4%-77218.6%antes de 1993454OVERFIT
EG-20.9%+2975.7%-2996.6%-11.3 pts274OVERFIT
EIX-10.0%+14610.5%-14620.6%antes de 1993464OVERFIT
EL+26.9%+1551.3%-1524.4%-9.7 pts242OVERFIT
ELV-9.6%+2326.9%-2336.4%-10.7 pts196OVERFIT
EME+1.2%+59203.5%-59202.3%-11.2 pts312OVERFIT
EMR-15.3%+19839.1%-19854.5%antes de 1993480OVERFIT
EOG-35.6%+9279.7%-9315.3%antes de 1993264OVERFIT
EQIX-37.8%+240.5%-278.3%-10.2 pts221OVERFIT
EQR-0.6%+44.2%-44.8%-15.3 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
EQT-44.5%+19557.1%-19601.7%antes de 1993378OVERFIT
ERIE+6.6%+3362.8%-3356.2%-10.4 pts136OVERFIT
ES-6.2%+2960.1%-2966.3%antes de 1993422OVERFIT
ESS-20.9%+5274.8%-5295.8%-11.8 pts264OVERFIT
ETN+6.6%+116541.5%-116534.9%antes de 1993556OVERFIT
ETR-30.3%+19797.9%-19828.3%antes de 1993446OVERFIT
EVRG-49.5%+5086.7%-5136.2%antes de 1993460OVERFIT
EW-35.2%+6500.0%-6535.2%-9.8 pts236OVERFIT
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD-28.0%+148324.6%-148352.6%antes de 1993412OVERFIT
EXPE-50.3%+916.1%-966.5%-14.3 pts166OVERFIT
EXR-4.4%+2698.9%-2703.4%-11.5 pts150OVERFIT
F-0.6%+6752.4%-6753.0%antes de 1993444OVERFIT
FCX-27.5%+1061.6%-1089.2%-11.7 pts226OVERFIT
FDS+9.3%+9088.9%-9079.6%-10.0 pts210OVERFIT
FDX-2.5%+53776.9%-53779.5%antes de 1993462OVERFIT
FDXFno aplica · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-3.2%+563.0%-566.3%-9.6 pts168OVERFIT
FFIV+15.9%+5374.0%-5358.1%-8.0 pts210OVERFIT
FICO-79.4%+94747.8%-94827.2%antes de 1993440OVERFIT
FIS+6.3%+363.8%-357.5%-9.3 pts182OVERFIT
FITB-42.8%+28280.0%-28322.8%antes de 1993410OVERFIT
FIX-16.4%+11966.2%-11982.7%-10.1 pts222OVERFIT
FLEX+165.3%+7898.6%-7733.3%-7.9 pts272OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT-72.4%+24360.2%-24432.6%antes de 1993632OVERFIT
FSLR-23.4%+716.1%-739.5%-12.3 pts136OVERFIT
FTV+4.2%+100.1%-95.9%-15.1 pts68INCONCLUSIVE
GD+60.5%+221689.9%-221629.4%antes de 1993632OVERFIT
GDDY+10.3%+389.4%-379.1%-13.2 pts88INCONCLUSIVE
GE-49.5%+54356.2%-54405.7%antes de 1993536OVERFIT
GEN+74.7%+12085.6%-12010.9%antes de 1993268OVERFIT
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+7.6%+15015.5%-15007.9%antes de 1993392OVERFIT
GL-20.3%+12680.6%-12700.9%antes de 1993396OVERFIT
GLW+1.2%+19301.2%-19300.0%antes de 1993370OVERFIT
GM+39.7%+240.1%-200.4%-12.3 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC-18.0%+2091.1%-2109.1%-15.8 pts108INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-15.8%+12785.5%-12801.4%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
GPN+41.8%+2567.9%-2526.1%-7.6 pts194OVERFIT
GRMN+2.6%+5377.3%-5374.7%-8.8 pts174OVERFIT
GWW-61.0%+55300.2%-55361.2%antes de 1993564OVERFIT
HAL-22.2%+2860.8%-2883.0%antes de 1993450OVERFIT
HAS+43.0%+201529.8%-201486.8%antes de 1993532OVERFIT
HBAN-29.7%+3799.5%-3829.3%antes de 1993368OVERFIT
HCA+6.8%+1699.7%-1692.9%-13.7 pts121INCONCLUSIVE
HIG-13.1%+951.1%-964.2%-10.9 pts210OVERFIT
HII+1.6%+883.6%-882.0%-14.1 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+4.5%+659.1%-654.7%-13.7 pts88INCONCLUSIVE
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE-3.7%+625.0%-628.7%-15.2 pts84INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+29.4%+77945.5%-77916.1%antes de 1993524OVERFIT
HRL-61.0%+19046.1%-19107.1%antes de 1993466OVERFIT
HSIC-30.3%+1913.1%-1943.4%-11.7 pts200OVERFIT
HST-10.2%+12843.9%-12854.0%antes de 1993426OVERFIT
HSY-48.0%+53964.6%-54012.6%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
HUBB+6.1%+3853.5%-3847.4%-10.9 pts260OVERFIT
HUM-17.5%+20168.9%-20186.4%antes de 1993374OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR-18.6%+1526.1%-1544.7%-11.8 pts112INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-22.9%+2307.9%-2330.7%-12.4 pts160OVERFIT
IEX-27.7%+12761.2%-12789.0%antes de 1993378OVERFIT
IFF-49.9%+4754.9%-4804.8%antes de 1993406OVERFIT
INCY+77.2%+6471.7%-6394.5%-9.2 pts240OVERFIT
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-43.7%+4590.1%-4633.9%antes de 1993498OVERFIT
IQV+10.2%+520.3%-510.0%-13.5 pts122INCONCLUSIVE
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM-25.7%+9911.6%-9937.2%-11.3 pts258OVERFIT
IT-37.2%+6431.0%-6468.2%-12.3 pts246OVERFIT
ITW-30.9%+51254.1%-51285.0%antes de 1993526OVERFIT
IVZ+20.8%+1093.8%-1073.0%-10.1 pts276OVERFIT
J-54.1%+33544.7%-33598.8%antes de 1993488OVERFIT
JBHT-36.9%+24926.6%-24963.5%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
JBL-28.2%+41217.7%-41245.9%-11.9 pts276OVERFIT
JCI-51.4%+4376.5%-4428.0%antes de 1993350OVERFIT
JKHY+49.9%+71288.2%-71238.4%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
KEY-45.8%+1405.6%-1451.4%antes de 1993286OVERFIT
KEYS-7.3%+1042.3%-1049.6%-15.0 pts78INCONCLUSIVE
KIM-12.6%+3036.5%-3049.1%antes de 1993306OVERFIT
KKR+11.5%+1784.9%-1773.4%-14.1 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
KMB-26.2%+16039.9%-16066.1%antes de 1993350OVERFIT
KMI-3.5%+117.5%-121.0%-14.1 pts86INCONCLUSIVE
KR-36.2%+182706.1%-182742.3%antes de 1993598OVERFIT
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+17.3%+22398.8%-22381.5%antes de 1993406OVERFIT
LDOS-14.5%+530.2%-544.7%-11.9 pts86OVERFIT
LEN+20.8%+29032.9%-29012.1%antes de 1993476OVERFIT
LH-21.9%+1408.2%-1430.1%antes de 1993312OVERFIT
LHX-39.4%+8519.5%-8558.9%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
LII+12.4%+3122.4%-3110.0%-8.1 pts178OVERFIT
LLY-35.3%+129720.0%-129755.3%antes de 1993402OVERFIT
LMT-44.4%+67444.7%-67489.1%antes de 1993584OVERFIT
LNT-38.6%+9408.5%-9447.1%antes de 1993456OVERFIT
LOW-0.0%+77328.4%-77328.4%antes de 1993418OVERFIT
LULU-21.2%+759.0%-780.2%-12.4 pts138INCONCLUSIVE
LUV-6.3%+24508.5%-24514.8%antes de 1993372OVERFIT
LVS-24.9%+50.3%-75.3%-12.2 pts138OVERFIT
LYB-1.7%+648.8%-650.5%-14.1 pts126INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+1.4%+1558.0%-1556.5%-11.1 pts130OVERFIT
MA-19.6%+14066.9%-14086.6%-12.3 pts174OVERFIT
MAA-21.7%+3525.2%-3546.8%-11.6 pts210OVERFIT
MAS-30.7%+7423.1%-7453.8%antes de 1993382OVERFIT
MCK+35.7%+6946.5%-6910.8%-10.2 pts256OVERFIT
MCO-24.5%+7753.9%-7778.4%-11.9 pts262OVERFIT
MDT-65.6%+51421.0%-51486.6%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
MET+2.6%+1176.9%-1174.3%-8.2 pts182OVERFIT
MGM-66.0%+1501.4%-1567.4%antes de 1993312OVERFIT
MKC-75.9%+14401.8%-14477.8%antes de 1993586OVERFIT
MLM+4.4%+3089.6%-3085.2%-10.8 pts260OVERFIT
MO-37.5%+2914781.4%-2914818.9%antes de 1993576OVERFIT
MOS-16.2%+268.9%-285.1%antes de 1993310OVERFIT
MPC-5.4%+2972.8%-2978.2%-14.9 pts102INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH-3.5%+21192.9%-21196.4%antes de 1993512OVERFIT
MS+33.3%+6159.1%-6125.8%-10.0 pts272OVERFIT
MSCI-39.9%+2406.7%-2446.6%-14.0 pts122INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+87.3%+79243.2%-79155.9%antes de 1993572OVERFIT
MTB-1.3%+105049.8%-105051.2%antes de 1993666OVERFIT
MTD+51.7%+9346.3%-9294.6%-8.0 pts227OVERFIT
NCLH+0.4%-34.9%+35.2%-14.7 pts96INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+24.4%+2371.2%-2346.8%-10.0 pts132OVERFIT
NDSN-14.2%+37769.3%-37783.5%antes de 1993382OVERFIT
NEE-38.8%+23772.9%-23811.6%antes de 1993452OVERFIT
NEM-44.8%+2099.8%-2144.6%antes de 1993394OVERFIT
NI-52.2%+5234.9%-5287.1%antes de 1993554OVERFIT
NOC-29.6%+23369.3%-23398.8%antes de 1993388OVERFIT
NOW+2.7%+2907.9%-2905.2%-14.7 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+0.5%+1442.6%-1442.0%-11.0 pts134OVERFIT
NSC+46.1%+24520.7%-24474.5%antes de 1993388OVERFIT
NTAP+229.4%+19659.8%-19430.4%-6.6 pts218OVERFIT
NTRS+26.5%+53074.8%-53048.3%antes de 1993494OVERFIT
NUE-43.7%+70209.1%-70252.8%antes de 1993434OVERFIT
NVR+10.6%+61512.0%-61501.4%-10.5 pts320OVERFIT
NWS+7.4%+152.4%-145.0%-13.8 pts84INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-2.7%+122.2%-124.9%-14.6 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
O-27.8%+5366.4%-5394.2%-12.1 pts232OVERFIT
OKE-4.2%+19101.6%-19105.8%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
OMC-57.9%+15677.5%-15735.4%antes de 1993466OVERFIT
ON+66.3%+208.7%-142.4%-6.5 pts144OVERFIT
ORCL+25.2%+296729.4%-296704.2%antes de 1993294OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+28.6%+3580.0%-3551.4%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
PCG+6.6%+1389.7%-1383.1%antes de 1993486OVERFIT
PEG-22.7%+18884.4%-18907.1%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
PFE-43.0%+20062.7%-20105.7%antes de 1993532OVERFIT
PFG-24.1%+920.1%-944.2%-11.2 pts200OVERFIT
PGR+10.4%+819581.9%-819571.5%antes de 1993486OVERFIT
PH-41.7%+41129.4%-41171.1%antes de 1993426OVERFIT
PHM+52.8%+95847.7%-95794.8%antes de 1993474OVERFIT
PLD-1.6%+1782.5%-1784.2%-9.4 pts214OVERFIT
PM-15.0%+785.7%-800.7%-13.1 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
PNC-37.3%+37937.9%-37975.2%antes de 1993482OVERFIT
PNR-22.2%+11510.8%-11533.1%antes de 1993552OVERFIT
PNW-14.4%+2247.6%-2261.9%antes de 1993450OVERFIT
PODD+49.1%+831.5%-782.4%-8.7 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+33.8%+21327.4%-21293.6%antes de 1993360OVERFIT
PPL-44.5%+7311.8%-7356.3%antes de 1993398OVERFIT
PRU+23.1%+767.8%-744.7%-9.2 pts192OVERFIT
PSA-19.6%+13958.7%-13978.3%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
PSKY+72.1%-34.8%+106.9%-8.4 pts124OVERFIT
PSX+0.5%+1071.7%-1071.1%-14.5 pts102INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-27.8%+8443.5%-8471.2%antes de 1993314OVERFIT
PWR-6.2%+8155.1%-8161.3%-9.4 pts246OVERFIT
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+0.0%+4611.6%-4611.6%-10.9 pts312OVERFIT
REG+5.4%+2046.5%-2041.1%-10.7 pts258OVERFIT
RF-35.4%+7230.0%-7265.3%antes de 1993442OVERFIT
RJF+10.6%+52691.1%-52680.4%antes de 1993448OVERFIT
RL-4.1%+1376.9%-1381.0%-9.7 pts242OVERFIT
RMD+63.3%+43254.4%-43191.1%-9.2 pts278OVERFIT
ROK-8.8%+57325.7%-57334.5%antes de 1993362OVERFIT
ROL-25.5%+36503.9%-36529.5%antes de 1993402OVERFIT
RSG-19.2%+1977.7%-1996.8%-9.6 pts206OVERFIT
RTX-43.6%+231131.9%-231175.5%antes de 1993498OVERFIT
RVTY-24.8%+25547.2%-25572.0%antes de 1993546OVERFIT
SBAC-33.3%+2259.6%-2292.9%-10.0 pts178OVERFIT
SCHW-21.7%+45501.9%-45523.6%antes de 1993426OVERFIT
SJM-23.3%+1119.0%-1142.2%-11.9 pts272OVERFIT
SLB-65.0%+1125.4%-1190.5%antes de 1993290OVERFIT
SMCI+72.4%+4155.7%-4083.3%-8.2 pts136INCONCLUSIVE
SNA-67.5%+12522.0%-12589.5%antes de 1993542OVERFIT
SO-23.4%+32617.4%-32640.8%antes de 1993400OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+49.2%+5330.6%-5281.4%-9.7 pts194OVERFIT
SPGI-36.9%+140503.3%-140540.2%antes de 1993516OVERFIT
SRE-31.3%+1463.0%-1494.3%-10.2 pts178OVERFIT
STE-20.0%+15491.4%-15511.4%antes de 1993236OVERFIT
STLD-23.5%+7831.8%-7855.3%-10.9 pts250OVERFIT
STT+31.8%+199686.1%-199654.4%antes de 1993536OVERFIT
STZ-3.9%+10007.0%-10010.9%antes de 1993232OVERFIT
SW+3.9%+775.0%-771.0%-11.8 pts344INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+9.7%+5887.9%-5878.2%antes de 1993445OVERFIT
SWKS+36.6%+1317.3%-1280.7%antes de 1993454OVERFIT
SYF+36.3%+325.2%-288.9%-11.4 pts98INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+1.7%+430371.4%-430369.8%antes de 1993468OVERFIT
SYY+72.6%+115885.9%-115813.3%antes de 1993602OVERFIT
T+19.9%+10219.8%-10199.9%antes de 1993312OVERFIT
TAP-5.3%+518.8%-524.1%antes de 1993502OVERFIT
TDG-18.2%+13285.3%-13303.5%-12.0 pts178OVERFIT
TDY+0.8%+7164.6%-7163.8%-8.4 pts174OVERFIT
TECH+145.1%+79246.8%-79101.7%antes de 1993246OVERFIT
TEL-11.2%+671.1%-682.2%-11.4 pts134INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+14.1%+10226.4%-10212.4%antes de 1993424OVERFIT
TGT-47.1%+90566.5%-90613.5%antes de 1993474OVERFIT
TJX-29.0%+36154.4%-36183.4%antes de 1993330OVERFIT
TKO-26.2%+1638.9%-1665.1%-9.9 pts168OVERFIT
TMO+39.0%+36784.3%-36745.3%antes de 1993488OVERFIT
TPL-19.9%+75277.1%-75297.0%antes de 1993588OVERFIT
TPR+10.1%+7766.6%-7756.6%-8.3 pts194OVERFIT
TRGP+16.0%+2202.9%-2186.9%-13.4 pts86INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+16.5%+3366.4%-3349.9%antes de 1993320OVERFIT
TROW+23.4%+35932.6%-35909.2%antes de 1993334OVERFIT
TSCO+2.2%+15199.0%-15196.8%-10.8 pts226OVERFIT
TSN-43.5%+4340.8%-4384.3%antes de 1993374OVERFIT
TT-37.0%+49748.2%-49785.2%antes de 1993382OVERFIT
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT-65.4%+4901.2%-4966.6%antes de 1993442OVERFIT
TYL-50.6%+43359.1%-43409.7%antes de 1993494OVERFIT
UAL+13.7%+240.6%-226.9%-10.5 pts152OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+25.0%+14119.5%-14094.5%antes de 1993450OVERFIT
UHS-34.3%+15293.2%-15327.5%antes de 1993462OVERFIT
ULTA+62.5%+1721.3%-1658.8%-8.4 pts154INCONCLUSIVE
UNP-51.9%+30311.4%-30363.2%antes de 1993476OVERFIT
UPS-35.2%+233.2%-268.4%-10.1 pts198OVERFIT
URI+18.7%+7088.3%-7069.6%-8.8 pts190OVERFIT
USB-57.3%+44799.0%-44856.3%antes de 1993516OVERFIT
VEEV-32.3%+668.8%-701.1%-17.2 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO-4.5%+23394.0%-23398.5%antes de 1993332OVERFIT
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC-8.0%+48759.3%-48767.3%antes de 1993682OVERFIT
VRSK-15.1%+648.8%-663.8%-15.4 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN-17.4%+5322.0%-5339.5%-10.0 pts212OVERFIT
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+1.0%+1496.8%-1495.8%-9.7 pts232OVERFIT
VTRS-22.9%+1568.8%-1591.7%antes de 1993394OVERFIT
VZ+1.3%+4889.1%-4887.8%antes de 1993356OVERFIT
WAB-43.4%+4137.7%-4181.1%-12.6 pts250OVERFIT
WAT-4.7%+10865.4%-10870.1%-10.7 pts238OVERFIT
WEC+22.3%+23656.8%-23634.5%antes de 1993400OVERFIT
WELL-20.4%+58774.1%-58794.5%antes de 1993482OVERFIT
WFC-34.1%+63452.2%-63486.4%antes de 1993620OVERFIT
WM-44.4%+8471.2%-8515.6%antes de 1993344OVERFIT
WMB+61.1%+11974.1%-11913.0%antes de 1993390OVERFIT
WSM+52.2%+69865.8%-69813.6%antes de 1993384OVERFIT
WST-33.4%+79208.6%-79242.0%antes de 1993564OVERFIT
WTW+5.9%+1181.6%-1175.8%-9.2 pts176OVERFIT
WY-1.8%+1781.4%-1783.2%antes de 1993464OVERFIT
WYNN+33.6%+1217.6%-1184.0%-10.2 pts156OVERFIT
XOM-44.0%+183657.9%-183701.8%antes de 1993586OVERFIT
XYL+0.9%+455.0%-454.1%-15.2 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+47.0%+527.5%-480.5%-11.1 pts94INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-10.6%+4282.5%-4293.1%-9.8 pts208OVERFIT
ZBH+5.8%+292.2%-286.4%-9.4 pts194OVERFIT
ZBRA+101.2%+8617.7%-8516.5%antes de 1993326OVERFIT
ZTS+3.0%+179.3%-176.3%-14.4 pts122INCONCLUSIVE

Divisas · 5 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD+1.6%-3.1%+4.8%-11.0 pts197OVERFIT
GBP/USD-0.1%-21.2%+21.2%-11.0 pts188OVERFIT
USD/JPY-16.9%+40.2%-57.1%-10.8 pts224OVERFIT
USD/MXN-6.2%+49.9%-56.2%-11.3 pts130OVERFIT
AUD/USD+13.0%-6.6%+19.6%-10.6 pts150OVERFIT
USD/CAD-0.6%+1.7%-2.3%-11.2 pts180OVERFIT
USD/CHF-1.5%-41.4%+40.0%-11.2 pts134OVERFIT
NZD/USD+1.7%-8.1%+9.8%-11.0 pts188OVERFIT

Cripto · 0 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin-7.7%+17075.3%-17083.0%-14.2 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+3.4%+859.3%-855.9%-13.6 pts78INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1336.4%-1303.0%-855.9%
Solanano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Cardanono aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Dogecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EUR/USD-30.8%-9.4%-1.3%-6.8%+4.8%
GBP/USD-34.0%-9.6%+4.4%+9.6%+21.2%
USD/JPY-88.2%-62.7%-50.6%-43.0%-57.1%
AUD/USD+19.6%
USD/CAD-89.3%-64.4%-5.5%-8.9%-2.3%
USD/CHF-29.3%-14.4%+22.2%+25.8%+40.0%
NZD/USD-30.4%-6.4%-7.2%+15.5%+9.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)-452.8%-436.2%-399.3%-371.8%-3102.8%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-703.9%-690.6%-651.8%-619.7%-1583.7%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-306.0%-290.5%-251.5%-228.6%-813.5%
Emergentes (EEM)-268.1%-253.6%-216.0%-193.2%-823.9%
Oro (GLD)-396.3%-381.0%-336.6%-307.3%-838.6%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-88.3%-64.5%-36.0%-5.6%-124.3%
AAPL-1348.8%-1333.1%-1287.6%-1272.3%-322827.6%
AMGN-376.8%-359.7%-299.4%-279.3%-187131.1%
AMZN-835.8%-816.8%-789.5%-763.9%-265162.2%
AXP-572.7%-559.9%-504.3%-478.1%-27089.4%
BA-165.0%-150.5%-116.1%-80.5%-108709.1%
CAT-1512.2%-1499.2%-1449.8%-1427.2%-172722.6%
CRM-338.2%-317.8%-266.1%-241.2%-5993.5%
CSCO-569.7%-555.7%-486.7%-498.3%-222952.6%
CVX-356.9%-341.9%-304.8%-268.7%-68058.2%
DIS-111.3%-93.4%-38.5%+12.7%-189882.9%
GOOGL-920.1%-907.2%-862.0%-822.4%-13522.2%
GS-722.5%-707.6%-666.7%-637.6%-2050.5%
HD-322.4%-306.5%-258.0%-257.4%-1985763.5%
HON-278.9%-260.3%-217.5%-202.3%-21091.3%
IBM-285.3%-268.1%-219.3%-197.9%-16260.3%
JNJ-355.7%-339.5%-292.5%-273.5%-445213.8%
JPM-741.4%-727.2%-690.9%-639.8%-34538.0%
KO-292.1%-277.3%-240.1%-211.1%-199394.2%
MCD-282.5%-265.0%-231.5%-195.9%-236694.5%
MMM-198.3%-180.8%-136.2%-104.9%-31199.9%
MRK-411.1%-394.0%-347.1%-334.3%-233399.8%
MSFT-1076.3%-1065.7%-1025.1%-992.8%-859504.2%
NKE-71.8%-46.8%-17.9%+11.9%-31973.1%
NVDA-27585.7%-27570.1%-27532.2%-27493.2%-587720.6%
PG-243.7%-222.1%-194.8%-159.9%-59713.0%
SHW-448.1%-425.8%-391.2%-361.6%-231807.5%
TRV-419.4%-404.7%-366.2%-327.1%-12332.2%
UNH-400.1%-383.0%-360.6%-337.9%-353279.6%
V-542.6%-530.8%-489.7%-459.7%-2966.7%
WMT-607.1%-595.1%-543.9%-521.4%-915422.4%
ABNBno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ADBE-315.0%-297.5%-268.1%-231.2%-147745.5%
ADI-813.2%-797.2%-755.0%-689.7%-81400.4%
ADP-438.3%-422.2%-379.9%-338.6%-74227.4%
ADSK-431.0%-409.5%-390.9%-354.7%-58093.2%
AEP-303.5%-290.2%-252.2%-230.2%-13854.0%
ALABno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ALNY-254.1%-231.3%-182.4%-165.1%-3344.3%
AMAT-2817.6%-2808.8%-2730.3%-2700.2%-664910.3%
AMD-16807.2%-16793.1%-16753.6%-16717.2%-14781.8%
APPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ARMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ASML-2158.3%-2147.3%-2102.1%-2078.6%-96257.3%
AVGO-3402.8%-3393.4%-3330.3%-3328.0%-32457.8%
AXON-3569.1%-3554.4%-3502.4%-3469.0%-123026.4%
BKNG-421.3%-401.3%-369.6%-348.3%-832.5%
BKRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-987.2%
CCEP-414.2%-401.1%-360.3%-334.1%-7115.6%
CDNS-1657.1%-1639.6%-1585.3%-1562.0%-16701.8%
CEGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CMCSA-134.4%-118.7%-80.8%-49.7%-47104.7%
COST-706.4%-692.7%-662.6%-620.2%-12782.8%
CPRT-699.4%-686.0%-649.3%-608.1%-21551.5%
CRWDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CSX-695.9%-686.3%-655.3%-616.9%-40466.7%
CTAS-1030.8%-1019.1%-986.1%-937.6%-123401.4%
DASHno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DDOGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DXCM-461.7%-435.4%-390.3%-373.1%-3026.7%
EAno aplica
EXC-316.6%-303.6%-262.2%-239.5%-17733.5%
FANG-392.5%-381.2%-347.3%-307.2%-1355.7%
FAST-655.8%-641.2%-600.1%-570.8%-262353.5%
FERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-613.4%
FTNT-2745.1%-2731.4%-2681.8%-2670.6%-10172.7%
GEHCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
GILD-211.1%-187.5%-135.5%-129.7%-33571.1%
HONAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
IDXX-779.9%-764.9%-719.8%-700.0%-58786.1%
INTC-330.1%-319.0%-269.0%-261.4%-49255.5%
INTU-412.6%-396.3%-363.0%-327.3%-15449.0%
ISRG-611.6%-594.9%-554.0%-504.3%-18530.1%
KHC-53.8%-36.8%+3.6%+24.1%+35.3%
KLAC-3063.3%-3050.4%-3003.0%-2965.7%-289455.6%
LINno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-10779.5%
LITE-4007.4%-3991.6%-3957.6%-3944.4%-5217.3%
LRCX-4481.0%-4472.0%-4415.2%-4370.4%-159768.0%
MAR-593.1%-578.3%-536.9%-515.2%-2538.3%
MCHP-390.3%-379.5%-340.1%-310.9%-41969.3%
MDLZ-179.6%-164.2%-123.2%-113.8%-467.9%
MELI-1799.8%-1785.5%-1735.0%-1710.2%-6866.8%
META-568.6%-554.5%-498.3%-477.1%-1395.3%
MNST-193.4%-178.9%-120.3%-97.5%-62005.6%
MPWR-2250.4%-2240.8%-2211.8%-2151.2%-15006.0%
MRVL-2679.4%-2669.5%-2636.3%-2599.8%-1657.0%
MSTR-743.8%-734.8%-680.8%-639.9%-988.3%
MU-6675.4%-6654.0%-6624.0%-6589.3%-70832.9%
NFLX-742.8%-723.7%-681.4%-667.1%-67582.6%
NXPI-299.3%-282.7%-239.9%-219.4%-1750.8%
ODFL-1063.3%-1047.2%-1006.5%-986.3%-36429.8%
ORLY-539.1%-524.7%-480.4%-459.3%-55231.5%
PANW-1299.2%-1289.2%-1247.4%-1189.4%-4264.3%
PCAR-578.5%-560.6%-522.6%-484.6%-57100.0%
PDDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PEP-194.8%-184.4%-147.9%-121.4%-37769.4%
PLTRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PYPL-154.9%-133.7%-85.4%-52.9%-33.9%
QCOM-437.5%-414.3%-365.2%-329.7%-50458.3%
REGN-153.2%-136.8%-90.0%-78.1%-3731.7%
ROP-243.3%-224.9%-180.8%-163.2%-25965.9%
ROST-464.0%-446.9%-395.9%-391.0%-55719.9%
SBUX-230.6%-214.3%-161.7%-141.8%-43057.7%
SHOP-5944.4%-5927.9%-5904.2%-5844.0%-8573.5%
SNDKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
SNPS-984.4%-973.6%-946.6%-910.1%-5479.8%
STX-3651.8%-3640.3%-3580.3%-3555.4%-15561.7%
TER-1856.2%-1836.0%-1793.5%-1722.8%-31363.0%
TMUS-488.8%-478.9%-429.5%-404.2%-327.1%
TRI-360.8%-344.5%-299.8%-271.5%-600.3%
TSLA-2340.6%-2320.2%-2279.7%-2257.0%-22913.9%
TTWO-687.5%-673.9%-635.6%-597.1%-5527.8%
TXN-636.6%-623.0%-586.8%-545.3%-37978.3%
VRTX-439.1%-424.9%-375.7%-369.7%-11976.5%
WBDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-309.4%
WDAY-262.4%-239.5%-226.9%-195.8%-322.1%
WDC-1170.7%-1146.0%-1114.6%-1092.4%-66250.4%
XEL-293.0%-279.2%-238.5%-202.9%-7420.7%
KDP-276.4%-263.6%-238.3%-187.2%-1096.2%
USD/MXN-83.8%-62.3%-61.8%-64.0%-56.2%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18079.1%-18042.5%-17083.0%
Etherno aplica

9 / 472 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 472

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
window 38-21.8%-1.82-29.1%-3102.8%
window 15-9.1%-2.10-18.9%-3090.1%
window 60-16.8%-1.80-24.6%-3097.8%
window 90-11.2%-1.70-21.4%-3092.3%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Sharpe deflactado: 0.00 (< 0.95)

Suite de robustez: FRAGILE

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (-13.8% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (-9.3% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto baf59d3a43e0 · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 9; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 9 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). ICT / Smart Money: el fair value gap: funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto baf59d3a43e0. https://finaxion.app/research/ict-fair-value-gap

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