FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Seguimiento de tendencia · Actualizado 2026-09-10

La media adaptativa de Kaufman (KAMA)

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: divisas, en diario, en un activo suelto — bate en 13 de 961 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
11 / 489
Vs. índice
-12.6 pts/año
Rendimiento total
-45.4%
Sharpe
-0.46
Caída máxima
-71.6%
Operaciones
1281
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de La media adaptativa de Kaufman (KAMA)?

  1. No hay una clase de activo donde la media adaptativa de Kaufman (KAMA) funcione de forma consistente; donde menos mal va es en divisas: 2 de 40 (5 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en criptomonedas: bate en 0 de 14.
  3. De los 11 mercados diarios donde bate, 3 aguantan fuera de muestra (27 %).
  4. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  5. Mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118; en 4 horas, en 2 de 118.
  6. Envejeció: en 40 mercados batía en la primera mitad del histórico y dejó de hacerlo en la segunda; lo contrario solo pasa en 11.
  7. Su mejor mercado diario es BTC/USD: +17,6 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 12 años, 576 operaciones.
  8. Su peor mercado diario es AVB: -24,1 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto 6540eaf5c46b.

Lo que se promete

«KAMA se adapta a la volatilidad: compra cuando el precio la cruza al alza y evita los latigazos de las medias normales.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Cierre cruza por encima de KAMA(10, 2, 30) → entrada; cierre cruza por debajo → salida.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)-45.4%+3081.0%-3126.4%-12.6 pts1281OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-47.7%+1565.8%-1613.5%-10.9 pts1023OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-76.7%+801.9%-878.6%-14.1 pts1054OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+31.5%+830.9%-799.4%-10.5 pts851OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+59.6%+820.3%-760.6%-8.8 pts742OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-55.6%+131.2%-186.8%-14.6 pts861OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · máx. 10)+253.6%+3081.0%-2827.5%-7.0 pts13318

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · máx. 20)+1439.6%+3081.0%-1641.4%-2.4 pts33490

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · máx. 25)+81.7%+3081.0%-2999.3%-9.0 pts51917

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 9 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 18 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL+1831.7%+322813.1%-320981.3%antes de 19931593OVERFIT
AMGN+1583.0%+187272.6%-185689.6%antes de 19931497OVERFIT
AMZN+4744.5%+265196.1%-260451.6%+4.5 pts1021OVERFIT
AXP-83.9%+27029.4%-27113.2%antes de 19931996OVERFIT
BA+3399.4%+108724.7%-105325.3%antes de 19932262OVERFIT
CAT+4380.8%+172708.3%-168327.5%antes de 19932222OVERFIT
CRM+160.3%+5992.9%-5832.6%-6.5 pts749OVERFIT
CSCO+529.9%+222956.6%-222426.7%antes de 19931308OVERFIT
CVX-58.4%+68037.6%-68096.0%antes de 19932413OVERFIT
DIS+6617.1%+189847.3%-183230.2%antes de 19932243OVERFIT
GOOGL+464.7%+13534.3%-13069.6%-3.1 pts773OVERFIT
GS+151.1%+2027.1%-1876.0%-5.0 pts954OVERFIT
HD+1595.0%+1985758.9%-1984163.9%antes de 19931558OVERFIT
HON-65.1%+21058.8%-21123.9%antes de 19932390OVERFIT
IBM+13.0%+16203.8%-16190.8%antes de 19932321OVERFIT
JNJ+105.1%+445196.6%-445091.5%antes de 19932241OVERFIT
JPM+38.1%+34522.5%-34484.4%antes de 19931609OVERFIT
KO+36.8%+199349.6%-199312.8%antes de 19932416OVERFIT
MCD+495.2%+236707.0%-236211.7%antes de 19932104OVERFIT
MMM-55.0%+31160.0%-31215.0%antes de 19932330OVERFIT
MRK+80.1%+233375.1%-233295.0%antes de 19932267OVERFIT
MSFT+590.5%+859506.0%-858915.4%antes de 19931481OVERFIT
NKE+555.4%+32003.7%-31448.2%antes de 19931526OVERFIT
NVDA+5859.1%+587720.8%-581861.7%+7.2 pts979OVERFIT
PG-41.7%+59706.6%-59748.4%antes de 19932346OVERFIT
SHW+9.3%+231766.6%-231757.3%antes de 19931684OVERFIT
TRV+721.0%+12287.7%-11566.7%antes de 19931820MARGINAL
UNH+267.0%+353381.4%-353114.4%antes de 19931522OVERFIT
V-55.0%+2961.1%-3016.1%-16.4 pts719INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+22.6%+915365.3%-915342.8%antes de 19932004OVERFIT
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+264.1%+147731.1%-147467.0%antes de 19931417OVERFIT
ADI-84.1%+81534.0%-81618.2%antes de 19931760OVERFIT
ADP-66.7%+74205.9%-74272.6%antes de 19931717OVERFIT
ADSK+932.6%+58084.6%-57152.0%antes de 19931443OVERFIT
AEP+120.9%+13797.6%-13676.7%antes de 19932394OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+674.6%+3338.4%-2663.8%-1.4 pts789OVERFIT
AMAT+288.9%+664974.8%-664686.0%antes de 19931666OVERFIT
AMD+595.2%+14863.3%-14268.1%antes de 19931624MARGINAL
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+33.8%+96277.5%-96243.7%-10.1 pts1120OVERFIT
AVGO+235.8%+32512.1%-32276.2%-7.3 pts643INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+28328.1%+123065.2%-94737.1%+15.7 pts849MARGINAL
BKNG-20.0%+922.2%-942.2%-9.4 pts994OVERFIT
BKR-89.3%+933.9%-1023.1%antes de 19931418OVERFIT
CCEP-19.0%+7081.8%-7100.8%antes de 19931491OVERFIT
CDNS-53.3%+16839.0%-16892.3%antes de 19931435OVERFIT
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA-38.7%+47049.9%-47088.6%antes de 19931743OVERFIT
COST+23.0%+12800.7%-12777.8%antes de 19931512OVERFIT
CPRT+969.5%+21554.9%-20585.5%-3.3 pts1177OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX-88.3%+40426.1%-40514.4%antes de 19931717OVERFIT
CTAS+534.0%+123411.3%-122877.3%antes de 19931559OVERFIT
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+2424.2%+3002.6%-578.4%+5.1 pts751MARGINAL
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC-18.0%+17730.6%-17748.5%antes de 19932036OVERFIT
FANG+36.9%+1406.8%-1369.9%-12.5 pts518INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+2340.3%+262350.7%-260010.3%antes de 19931386OVERFIT
FER+36.4%+593.7%-557.2%-12.6 pts234INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+64.7%+10184.6%-10119.9%-11.2 pts621INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+29.1%+33594.8%-33565.7%antes de 19931267OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+636.1%+58789.5%-58153.4%antes de 19931268OVERFIT
INTC-42.3%+49216.9%-49259.1%antes de 19931678OVERFIT
INTU-1.7%+15430.2%-15431.8%-10.8 pts1263OVERFIT
ISRG+630.2%+18484.9%-17854.7%-0.5 pts918MARGINAL
KDP+184.4%+1090.2%-905.8%-5.9 pts621INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-56.7%-42.2%-14.5%-21.6 pts365INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC-58.3%+289399.1%-289457.4%antes de 19931770OVERFIT
LIN-71.3%+10777.0%-10848.3%antes de 19931284OVERFIT
LITE+654.3%+5280.9%-4626.6%+5.8 pts379INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX-68.4%+159814.6%-159883.0%antes de 19931624OVERFIT
MAR+26.3%+2539.5%-2513.2%-8.1 pts1016OVERFIT
MCHP-77.2%+41961.5%-42038.7%-15.1 pts1226OVERFIT
MDLZ-60.8%+461.4%-522.2%-13.1 pts984OVERFIT
MELI+533.8%+6911.0%-6377.3%-1.0 pts663INCONCLUSIVE
META-62.8%+1410.2%-1473.1%-21.9 pts563INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+671.8%+61968.9%-61297.1%antes de 19931346MARGINAL
MPWR+526.0%+15002.1%-14476.1%-2.2 pts732OVERFIT
MRVL+124.0%+1645.0%-1521.1%-5.3 pts958OVERFIT
MSTR+14596.0%+1158.6%+13437.4%+10.4 pts989OVERFIT
MU+816.2%+70877.8%-70061.6%antes de 19931508MARGINAL
NFLX+1451.9%+67643.2%-66191.3%+1.7 pts815GENERALIZED
NXPI+34.4%+1721.2%-1686.8%-12.8 pts586INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-97.5%+36444.7%-36542.2%antes de 19931428OVERFIT
ORLY+498.4%+55255.7%-54757.3%-5.4 pts1234OVERFIT
PANW+375.7%+4215.4%-3839.7%-3.3 pts469INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+322.0%+57106.4%-56784.4%antes de 19931674MARGINAL
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP-78.8%+37760.7%-37839.5%antes de 19931965OVERFIT
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-50.3%+44.7%-95.0%-20.4 pts382INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM-19.0%+50430.1%-50449.1%antes de 19931291OVERFIT
REGN-62.6%+3718.3%-3780.9%antes de 19931340OVERFIT
ROP+143.8%+26003.6%-25859.8%antes de 19931271OVERFIT
ROST+595.6%+55801.1%-55205.6%antes de 19931440MARGINAL
SBUX+97.3%+43019.5%-42922.2%antes de 19931181MARGINAL
SHOP+234.1%+8568.8%-8334.7%-2.6 pts393INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-93.3%+5482.1%-5575.4%antes de 19931299OVERFIT
STX+7524.3%+15614.6%-8090.3%+8.7 pts818OVERFIT
TER+1446.9%+31309.8%-29862.9%antes de 19931846MARGINAL
TMUS-34.8%+318.0%-352.7%-13.1 pts725INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-12.9%+578.4%-591.4%-11.2 pts897OVERFIT
TSLA+5036.2%+23002.8%-17966.5%+12.5 pts539INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO-23.4%+5509.7%-5533.1%-11.0 pts1086OVERFIT
TXN-62.5%+38040.6%-38103.1%antes de 19931942OVERFIT
VRTX+59.2%+12000.4%-11941.2%antes de 19931353MARGINAL
WBD+335.0%+302.2%+32.8%-3.9 pts757MARGINAL
WDAY-25.8%+305.5%-331.3%-16.9 pts515INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+3409.8%+66202.2%-62792.4%antes de 19931676MARGINAL
XEL+71.8%+7388.9%-7317.1%antes de 19931984OVERFIT
A+211.6%+486.3%-274.7%-4.0 pts925MARGINAL
ABBV+92.5%+1156.0%-1063.5%-9.9 pts478INCONCLUSIVE
ABT-65.7%+62056.2%-62121.8%antes de 19931682OVERFIT
ACGL-78.1%+4268.0%-4346.2%-15.3 pts1194OVERFIT
ACN+105.8%+1726.5%-1620.7%-6.6 pts861OVERFIT
ADM-91.4%+9265.6%-9357.1%antes de 19931716OVERFIT
AEE+7.9%+813.9%-806.0%-9.0 pts1032OVERFIT
AES-11.6%+647.5%-659.1%antes de 19931321OVERFIT
AFL-40.0%+205848.4%-205888.4%antes de 19931780OVERFIT
AIG-25.3%+468.3%-493.6%antes de 19931847OVERFIT
AIZ+39.7%+1585.5%-1545.8%-9.4 pts795OVERFIT
AJG+2756.3%+41899.5%-39143.2%antes de 19931415OVERFIT
AKAM-14.9%-25.2%+10.3%-9.1 pts910OVERFIT
ALB-68.2%+3091.3%-3159.6%-14.4 pts1181OVERFIT
ALGN+15.2%+846.9%-831.7%-8.3 pts892OVERFIT
ALL-84.3%+3674.2%-3758.5%-16.3 pts1294OVERFIT
ALLE+36.2%+265.9%-229.7%-11.5 pts442INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-52.9%+100.6%-153.5%-20.2 pts383INCONCLUSIVE
AME-81.3%+25325.0%-25406.3%antes de 19931640OVERFIT
AMP+32.9%+2154.1%-2121.2%-9.8 pts756OVERFIT
AMT+129.8%+1310.2%-1180.4%-6.1 pts1021OVERFIT
ANET+1.2%+5592.8%-5591.6%-13.6 pts415INCONCLUSIVE
AON+199.4%+29815.0%-29615.6%antes de 19931700OVERFIT
AOS+3750.3%+13924.9%-10174.6%antes de 19931477OVERFIT
APA-98.9%+2417.2%-2516.1%antes de 19931811OVERFIT
APD-55.2%+20722.2%-20777.4%antes de 19931689OVERFIT
APH+135.8%+146951.6%-146815.8%antes de 19931224MARGINAL
APO+98.7%+1845.9%-1747.1%-9.4 pts583INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-19.0%+174.0%-193.0%-16.7 pts518INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-39.9%+624.3%-664.2%-11.4 pts1081OVERFIT
ARES+251.4%+1191.9%-940.5%-3.2 pts417INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-55.4%+13696.4%-13751.8%antes de 19931637OVERFIT
AVB-60.4%+42.3%-102.7%-24.1 pts408INCONCLUSIVE
AVY-85.6%+8544.4%-8630.0%antes de 19931933OVERFIT
AWK-30.8%+950.9%-981.7%-13.8 pts701INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+211.0%+40631.8%-40420.8%antes de 19931254OVERFIT
BAC+277.0%+4053.1%-3776.1%antes de 19931872OVERFIT
BALL+534.8%+49568.6%-49033.7%antes de 19931877OVERFIT
BAX-97.8%+1778.4%-1876.2%antes de 19931686OVERFIT
BBY+1856.3%+89506.6%-87650.3%antes de 19931482OVERFIT
BDX-86.7%+21440.4%-21527.0%antes de 19932015OVERFIT
BEN+739.4%+130378.8%-129639.3%antes de 19931539OVERFIT
BF-B+110.5%+14873.5%-14763.0%antes de 19931658OVERFIT
BG+10.1%+1105.5%-1095.5%-9.2 pts898OVERFIT
BIIB-4.6%+6832.8%-6837.4%antes de 19931275OVERFIT
BLDR-78.5%+393.7%-472.2%-18.2 pts816OVERFIT
BLK+22.0%+13724.5%-13702.5%-8.0 pts1019OVERFIT
BMY-12.4%+23662.6%-23675.0%antes de 19931911OVERFIT
BNY-50.9%+32230.3%-32281.3%antes de 19931867OVERFIT
BR+157.9%+1234.2%-1076.4%-6.0 pts627INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B-39.3%+2072.5%-2111.8%-12.0 pts1108OVERFIT
BRO+659.5%+76212.8%-75553.3%antes de 19931529OVERFIT
BSX-68.2%+1028.2%-1096.4%antes de 19931202OVERFIT
BX+99.8%+1023.3%-923.6%-7.2 pts687INCONCLUSIVE
BXP-45.2%+888.9%-934.1%-11.6 pts1005OVERFIT
C-52.2%+1897.9%-1950.2%antes de 19931800OVERFIT
CAH+1193.4%+39284.8%-38091.4%antes de 19931515OVERFIT
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+121.0%+80461.2%-80340.2%antes de 19931580OVERFIT
CB+61.8%+6587.6%-6525.8%-9.3 pts1244OVERFIT
CBOE+80.8%+1060.1%-979.3%-10.9 pts589INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+13.2%+2283.8%-2270.6%-10.4 pts783OVERFIT
CCI+278.7%+899.9%-621.2%-4.2 pts1026OVERFIT
CCL-34.3%+1154.4%-1188.7%antes de 19931380OVERFIT
CDW+76.3%+858.2%-781.9%-10.1 pts471INCONCLUSIVE
CF+144.6%+5815.9%-5671.3%-6.7 pts735OVERFIT
CFG-8.5%+349.9%-358.4%-14.5 pts428INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+171.2%+93736.5%-93565.3%antes de 19931645OVERFIT
CHRW-55.7%+4307.6%-4363.3%-12.1 pts1065OVERFIT
CHTR+21.5%+335.5%-314.1%-13.0 pts592INCONCLUSIVE
CI+879.5%+12980.8%-12101.4%antes de 19931514OVERFIT
CIEN+607.8%+195.6%+412.2%-3.0 pts982OVERFIT
CINF+1357.1%+41545.9%-40188.8%antes de 19931651OVERFIT
CL-83.0%+20919.0%-21002.0%antes de 19931922OVERFIT
CLX-69.3%+6184.2%-6253.4%antes de 19931910OVERFIT
CME+239.9%+6884.2%-6644.3%-6.1 pts857OVERFIT
CMG+768.2%+4221.6%-3453.4%-0.0 pts687MARGINAL
CMI+2597.9%+28968.2%-26370.4%antes de 19931912OVERFIT
CMS+492.6%+630.8%-138.2%antes de 19931898OVERFIT
CNC-31.6%+4388.8%-4420.4%-11.6 pts891OVERFIT
CNP+201.7%+13998.0%-13796.3%antes de 19932354OVERFIT
COF-13.5%+5724.6%-5738.0%-11.6 pts1128OVERFIT
COHR+77.0%+68288.9%-68212.0%antes de 19931492OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+276.5%+879.8%-603.3%antes de 19931512OVERFIT
COP-21.2%+13561.7%-13582.9%antes de 19931616OVERFIT
COR+1421.4%+17062.1%-15640.6%-1.9 pts1097OVERFIT
CPAY+23.2%+1383.7%-1360.5%-13.0 pts557INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+7.9%+2453.9%-2446.1%-10.7 pts1222OVERFIT
CRH-86.4%+7617.9%-7704.3%antes de 19931284OVERFIT
CRL-6.8%+1210.2%-1216.9%-8.8 pts889OVERFIT
CSGP+1112.8%+3390.6%-2277.8%+0.4 pts1059OVERFIT
CTSH+93.6%+35498.3%-35404.7%-6.6 pts1047OVERFIT
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS-42.3%+15658.6%-15701.0%antes de 19931918OVERFIT
D+237.1%+17762.4%-17525.3%antes de 19931626OVERFIT
DAL+26.6%+339.1%-312.5%-9.6 pts674INCONCLUSIVE
DD-63.4%+10113.6%-10177.0%antes de 19931964OVERFIT
DE-58.2%+101089.1%-101147.2%antes de 19931965OVERFIT
DECK-81.0%+7024.7%-7105.8%-15.7 pts1290OVERFIT
DELL+970.2%+4059.8%-3089.5%+11.6 pts331INCONCLUSIVE
DG+5.6%+550.3%-544.6%-14.0 pts583INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+204.1%+9626.0%-9421.9%-6.3 pts1029OVERFIT
DHI-69.7%+13111.0%-13180.7%antes de 19931324OVERFIT
DHR-84.9%+483557.2%-483642.2%antes de 19931837OVERFIT
DLR-18.8%+3540.7%-3559.6%-12.1 pts793OVERFIT
DLTR+1040.6%+10731.5%-9690.9%-3.0 pts1038OVERFIT
DOC-72.4%+6136.8%-6209.3%antes de 19931560OVERFIT
DOV+665.3%+29264.8%-28599.5%antes de 19931594MARGINAL
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+77.9%+5638.6%-5560.7%-8.5 pts780OVERFIT
DRI-30.5%+6998.7%-7029.2%-12.0 pts1168OVERFIT
DTE-27.4%+35264.3%-35291.7%antes de 19932480OVERFIT
DUK+200.6%+16239.0%-16038.5%antes de 19931638OVERFIT
DVA+83.2%+4219.3%-4136.1%-8.6 pts1120OVERFIT
DVN+12.3%+1411.9%-1399.6%antes de 19931494OVERFIT
EBAY+740.5%+14035.1%-13294.6%-1.3 pts992MARGINAL
ECHO+40.8%+227.3%-186.5%-9.5 pts638INCONCLUSIVE
ECL-51.8%+20174.1%-20225.9%antes de 19931969OVERFIT
ED+958.7%+45081.6%-44122.9%antes de 19932320OVERFIT
EFX+512.5%+77234.4%-76721.8%antes de 19931665OVERFIT
EG-18.0%+2975.7%-2993.7%-11.2 pts1125OVERFIT
EIX+57.4%+14610.5%-14553.2%antes de 19931919OVERFIT
EL-15.2%+1551.3%-1566.6%-11.1 pts1069OVERFIT
ELV+66.5%+2326.9%-2260.3%-8.2 pts919OVERFIT
EME+1365.1%+59203.5%-57838.4%-2.3 pts1126OVERFIT
EMR-78.0%+19839.1%-19917.1%antes de 19932047OVERFIT
EOG-51.4%+9279.7%-9331.1%antes de 19931398OVERFIT
EQIX+207.2%+240.5%-33.3%-4.0 pts913OVERFIT
EQR-36.9%+44.2%-81.1%-19.7 pts362INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+1036.0%+19557.1%-18521.2%antes de 19931641OVERFIT
ERIE+66.6%+3362.8%-3296.2%-8.9 pts1193OVERFIT
ES-77.5%+2960.1%-3037.5%antes de 19931984OVERFIT
ESS-27.2%+5274.8%-5302.0%-12.0 pts1214OVERFIT
ETN+3375.2%+116541.5%-113166.3%antes de 19931858MARGINAL
ETR+33.7%+19797.9%-19764.2%antes de 19931992OVERFIT
EVRG-44.4%+5086.7%-5131.1%antes de 19931974OVERFIT
EW+163.5%+6500.0%-6336.5%-4.5 pts922OVERFIT
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+92.2%+148324.6%-148232.4%antes de 19931623OVERFIT
EXPE+4.3%+916.1%-911.8%-10.9 pts749OVERFIT
EXR+176.6%+2698.9%-2522.3%-6.6 pts772OVERFIT
F+13.8%+6752.4%-6738.6%antes de 19931972OVERFIT
FCX+10.2%+1061.6%-1051.4%-10.4 pts1153OVERFIT
FDS+2365.2%+9088.9%-6723.7%+0.9 pts999OVERFIT
FDX+843.0%+53776.9%-52933.9%antes de 19931689OVERFIT
FDXFno aplica · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-58.5%+563.0%-621.6%-12.5 pts1046OVERFIT
FFIV+732.4%+5374.0%-4641.6%-0.4 pts913MARGINAL
FICO+75.4%+94747.8%-94672.4%antes de 19931423OVERFIT
FIS-68.9%+363.8%-432.6%-14.0 pts916OVERFIT
FITB+1634.3%+28280.0%-26645.7%antes de 19931600OVERFIT
FIX+54.0%+11966.2%-11912.2%-8.0 pts1052OVERFIT
FLEX+118.1%+7898.6%-7780.5%-8.5 pts1192OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT-70.2%+24360.2%-24430.5%antes de 19932024OVERFIT
FSLR-64.0%+716.1%-780.1%-16.0 pts746OVERFIT
FTV-16.2%+100.1%-116.4%-17.2 pts372INCONCLUSIVE
GD+2088.8%+221689.9%-219601.0%antes de 19932306OVERFIT
GDDY-41.7%+389.4%-431.1%-18.7 pts419INCONCLUSIVE
GE+15.5%+54356.2%-54340.8%antes de 19932314OVERFIT
GEN+202.6%+12085.6%-11883.0%antes de 19931269OVERFIT
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS-62.6%+15015.5%-15078.2%antes de 19931689OVERFIT
GL+379.3%+12680.6%-12301.2%antes de 19931644OVERFIT
GLW+664.9%+19301.2%-18636.3%antes de 19931542OVERFIT
GM+7.4%+240.1%-232.7%-14.0 pts563INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+103.7%+2091.1%-1987.4%-10.2 pts590INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-82.1%+12785.5%-12867.7%antes de 19931773OVERFIT
GPN-15.6%+2567.9%-2583.5%-9.7 pts891OVERFIT
GRMN+138.1%+5377.3%-5239.3%-5.5 pts878OVERFIT
GWW+274.2%+55300.2%-55026.0%antes de 19931983OVERFIT
HAL+47.4%+2860.8%-2813.3%antes de 19931887OVERFIT
HAS+610.5%+201529.8%-200919.2%antes de 19931681OVERFIT
HBAN-75.0%+3799.5%-3874.5%antes de 19931694OVERFIT
HCA+120.4%+1699.7%-1579.3%-8.9 pts509INCONCLUSIVE
HIG-3.0%+951.1%-954.1%-10.5 pts1146OVERFIT
HII+276.9%+883.6%-606.8%-5.2 pts532INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+28.3%+659.1%-630.9%-12.1 pts468INCONCLUSIVE
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+170.0%+625.0%-455.1%-5.3 pts382INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ-3.7%+77945.5%-77949.2%antes de 19932339OVERFIT
HRL-15.3%+19046.1%-19061.4%antes de 19931664OVERFIT
HSIC-2.4%+1913.1%-1915.4%-10.6 pts1223OVERFIT
HST+89.1%+12843.9%-12754.7%antes de 19931666OVERFIT
HSY-35.4%+53964.6%-54000.0%antes de 19931724OVERFIT
HUBB+10.4%+3853.5%-3843.1%-10.8 pts1158OVERFIT
HUM+553.2%+20168.9%-19615.7%antes de 19931561OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+2.3%+1526.1%-1523.8%-10.7 pts723INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-23.4%+2307.9%-2331.3%-12.5 pts803OVERFIT
IEX+103.7%+12761.2%-12657.5%antes de 19931355OVERFIT
IFF-92.4%+4754.9%-4847.4%antes de 19931919OVERFIT
INCY+1087.3%+6471.7%-5384.4%-3.1 pts1185OVERFIT
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-78.4%+4590.1%-4668.6%antes de 19932368OVERFIT
IQV-36.6%+520.3%-556.9%-17.6 pts497INCONCLUSIVE
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+532.8%+9911.6%-9378.7%-4.1 pts1102OVERFIT
IT+257.2%+6431.0%-6173.8%-6.9 pts1199OVERFIT
ITW+363.8%+51254.1%-50890.3%antes de 19931994OVERFIT
IVZ-6.9%+1093.8%-1100.7%-10.9 pts1089OVERFIT
J+1243.4%+33544.7%-32301.3%antes de 19931615MARGINAL
JBHT+957.0%+24926.6%-23969.6%antes de 19931522OVERFIT
JBL+1169.5%+41217.7%-40048.2%-3.0 pts1210MARGINAL
JCI-57.6%+4376.5%-4434.1%antes de 19931504OVERFIT
JKHY+16.3%+71288.2%-71271.9%antes de 19931497OVERFIT
KEY-98.7%+1405.6%-1504.3%antes de 19931546OVERFIT
KEYS+42.0%+1042.3%-1000.3%-11.3 pts414INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+63.5%+3036.5%-2973.0%antes de 19931188OVERFIT
KKR-22.4%+1784.9%-1807.3%-16.4 pts615INCONCLUSIVE
KMB-11.2%+16039.9%-16051.1%antes de 19931614OVERFIT
KMI+15.4%+117.5%-102.1%-13.0 pts546INCONCLUSIVE
KR+160.1%+182706.1%-182545.9%antes de 19932298OVERFIT
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+699.8%+22398.8%-21699.0%antes de 19931602MARGINAL
LDOS+19.3%+530.2%-510.9%-10.2 pts720OVERFIT
LEN-36.8%+29032.9%-29069.8%antes de 19931718OVERFIT
LH-70.0%+1408.2%-1478.2%antes de 19931355OVERFIT
LHX+4.6%+8519.5%-8514.9%antes de 19931576OVERFIT
LII-65.7%+3122.4%-3188.2%-12.4 pts1018OVERFIT
LLY+115.8%+129720.0%-129604.2%antes de 19931906OVERFIT
LMT-50.4%+67444.7%-67495.1%antes de 19932400OVERFIT
LNT+21.2%+9408.5%-9387.2%antes de 19931956OVERFIT
LOW+4407.4%+77328.4%-72921.0%antes de 19931572OVERFIT
LULU+89.9%+759.0%-669.1%-7.7 pts710INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+476.9%+24508.5%-24031.7%antes de 19931632OVERFIT
LVS+23.5%+50.3%-26.8%-9.9 pts774OVERFIT
LYB-1.7%+648.8%-650.6%-14.2 pts584INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+229.0%+1558.0%-1328.9%-5.2 pts732OVERFIT
MA+53.4%+14066.9%-14013.5%-9.1 pts759OVERFIT
MAA-65.6%+3525.2%-3590.8%-14.1 pts1230OVERFIT
MAS+340.9%+7423.1%-7082.2%antes de 19931626OVERFIT
MCK-4.3%+6946.5%-6950.8%-11.3 pts1185OVERFIT
MCO-19.5%+7753.9%-7773.5%-11.7 pts1211OVERFIT
MDT+92.5%+51421.0%-51328.5%antes de 19931840OVERFIT
MET-60.2%+1176.9%-1237.1%-11.7 pts941OVERFIT
MGM+518.3%+1501.4%-983.1%antes de 19931294MARGINAL
MKC+248.6%+14401.8%-14153.3%antes de 19931933OVERFIT
MLM-10.8%+3089.6%-3100.4%-11.2 pts1172OVERFIT
MO+2548.7%+2914781.4%-2912232.7%antes de 19932165OVERFIT
MOS+55.1%+268.9%-213.8%antes de 19931337OVERFIT
MPC+959.8%+2972.8%-2012.9%+2.3 pts511INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+235.7%+21192.9%-20957.2%antes de 19931967OVERFIT
MS-31.8%+6159.1%-6190.9%-12.0 pts1155OVERFIT
MSCI-50.9%+2406.7%-2457.6%-15.0 pts738INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+148.8%+79243.2%-79094.4%antes de 19932247OVERFIT
MTB+881.1%+105049.8%-104168.8%antes de 19931652OVERFIT
MTD+97.3%+9346.3%-9249.0%-7.1 pts1009OVERFIT
NCLH-62.9%-34.9%-28.0%-21.8 pts480INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+48.3%+2371.2%-2322.9%-9.3 pts875OVERFIT
NDSN+376.3%+37769.3%-37393.0%antes de 19931695OVERFIT
NEE+531.5%+23772.9%-23241.4%antes de 19931972OVERFIT
NEM-86.1%+2099.8%-2185.9%antes de 19931705OVERFIT
NI-74.6%+5234.9%-5309.4%antes de 19932026OVERFIT
NOC+957.8%+23369.3%-22411.5%antes de 19931567OVERFIT
NOW-6.5%+2907.9%-2914.4%-15.4 pts545INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+65.9%+1442.6%-1376.6%-8.8 pts862OVERFIT
NSC-35.6%+24520.7%-24556.3%antes de 19931653OVERFIT
NTAP+532.7%+19659.8%-19127.0%-4.3 pts1146MARGINAL
NTRS+868.7%+53074.8%-52206.1%antes de 19931590OVERFIT
NUE+715.9%+70209.1%-69493.1%antes de 19931608OVERFIT
NVR+1901.2%+61512.0%-59610.8%-1.3 pts1157OVERFIT
NWS+9.7%+152.4%-142.7%-13.7 pts473INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-18.6%+122.2%-140.9%-15.9 pts497INCONCLUSIVE
O+18.8%+5366.4%-5347.7%-10.5 pts1098OVERFIT
OKE+572.2%+19101.6%-18529.4%antes de 19931623OVERFIT
OMC+194.2%+15677.5%-15483.3%antes de 19931679OVERFIT
ON+468.6%+208.7%+259.9%-1.6 pts944OVERFIT
ORCL-48.7%+296729.4%-296778.2%antes de 19931589OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY-85.1%+3580.0%-3665.1%antes de 19931655OVERFIT
PCG-84.6%+1389.7%-1474.3%antes de 19932048OVERFIT
PEG+38.2%+18884.4%-18846.2%antes de 19931796OVERFIT
PFE-84.7%+20062.7%-20147.3%antes de 19931953OVERFIT
PFG-82.8%+920.1%-1002.9%-17.0 pts954OVERFIT
PGR+28460.1%+819581.9%-791121.8%antes de 19931553OVERFIT
PH+2438.1%+41129.4%-38691.4%antes de 19931592OVERFIT
PHM+382.3%+95847.7%-95465.4%antes de 19931648OVERFIT
PLD-37.6%+1782.5%-1820.1%-10.9 pts988OVERFIT
PM+132.9%+785.7%-652.8%-7.5 pts641INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+225.7%+37937.9%-37712.1%antes de 19931780OVERFIT
PNR+1522.0%+11510.8%-9988.9%antes de 19931760OVERFIT
PNW+37.3%+2247.6%-2210.3%antes de 19931952OVERFIT
PODD+18.9%+831.5%-812.6%-9.9 pts684INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+245.3%+21327.4%-21082.1%antes de 19931612MARGINAL
PPL+382.8%+7311.8%-6929.1%antes de 19931684OVERFIT
PRU-41.2%+767.8%-809.0%-12.2 pts915OVERFIT
PSA-77.9%+13958.7%-14036.6%antes de 19931744OVERFIT
PSKY+60.1%-34.8%+94.9%-8.8 pts745OVERFIT
PSX+589.0%+1071.7%-482.7%-0.2 pts495INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-85.7%+8443.5%-8529.1%antes de 19931373OVERFIT
PWR+65.3%+8155.1%-8089.8%-7.4 pts1066OVERFIT
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+4735.6%+4611.6%+124.0%+1.4 pts1080MARGINAL
REG-22.4%+2046.5%-2068.9%-11.6 pts1240OVERFIT
RF+18.0%+7230.0%-7212.0%antes de 19931626OVERFIT
RJF+391.7%+52691.1%-52299.4%antes de 19931554OVERFIT
RL-80.0%+1376.9%-1456.9%-14.9 pts1082OVERFIT
RMD+605.0%+43254.4%-42649.3%-4.3 pts1101OVERFIT
ROK+215.1%+57325.7%-57110.6%antes de 19931636OVERFIT
ROL-90.6%+36503.9%-36594.5%antes de 19931746OVERFIT
RSG-54.8%+1977.7%-2032.5%-11.6 pts983OVERFIT
RTX+237.7%+231131.9%-230894.1%antes de 19932294OVERFIT
RVTY+75.9%+25547.2%-25471.3%antes de 19931927OVERFIT
SBAC+6278.9%+2259.6%+4019.3%+8.0 pts933OVERFIT
SCHW+211.1%+45501.9%-45290.8%antes de 19931378MARGINAL
SJM-63.5%+1119.0%-1182.5%-14.2 pts1151OVERFIT
SLB-96.6%+1125.4%-1222.0%antes de 19931675OVERFIT
SMCI+8.2%+4155.7%-4147.5%-10.7 pts665INCONCLUSIVE
SNA-55.2%+12522.0%-12577.2%antes de 19931895OVERFIT
SO-38.3%+32617.4%-32655.7%antes de 19931804OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+84.6%+5330.6%-5246.0%-9.0 pts1212OVERFIT
SPGI+128.1%+140503.3%-140375.2%antes de 19931963OVERFIT
SRE-45.3%+1463.0%-1508.3%-11.0 pts1040OVERFIT
STE-69.2%+15491.4%-15560.7%antes de 19931225OVERFIT
STLD+706.7%+7831.8%-7125.1%-2.7 pts1048OVERFIT
STT+10000.2%+199686.1%-189686.0%antes de 19931633OVERFIT
STZ+26.1%+10007.0%-9980.8%antes de 19931202OVERFIT
SW-52.3%+775.0%-827.3%-16.0 pts457INCONCLUSIVE
SWK-79.3%+5887.9%-5967.2%antes de 19931712OVERFIT
SWKS-83.3%+1317.3%-1400.6%antes de 19931489OVERFIT
SYF+94.6%+325.2%-230.6%-8.3 pts431INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+1774.6%+430371.4%-428596.9%antes de 19931654OVERFIT
SYY+54.0%+115885.9%-115831.9%antes de 19931800OVERFIT
T+37.0%+10219.8%-10182.7%antes de 19931597OVERFIT
TAP-96.4%+518.8%-615.2%antes de 19931821OVERFIT
TDG-1.4%+13285.3%-13286.7%-11.1 pts778OVERFIT
TDY+10.7%+7164.6%-7153.9%-8.0 pts1018OVERFIT
TECH+45.2%+79246.8%-79201.5%antes de 19931341OVERFIT
TEL+18.0%+671.1%-653.0%-9.9 pts732INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-18.4%+10226.4%-10244.8%antes de 19931722OVERFIT
TGT+214.9%+90566.5%-90351.5%antes de 19931889OVERFIT
TJX-30.1%+36154.4%-36184.5%antes de 19931448OVERFIT
TKO-34.2%+1638.9%-1673.0%-10.4 pts992OVERFIT
TMO+104.7%+36784.3%-36679.6%antes de 19931671OVERFIT
TPL+28336.4%+75277.1%-46940.8%antes de 19931606OVERFIT
TPR+90.6%+7766.6%-7676.0%-6.1 pts920OVERFIT
TRGP+986.1%+2202.9%-1216.8%+2.1 pts541INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+85.9%+3366.4%-3280.5%antes de 19931303OVERFIT
TROW+343.0%+35932.6%-35589.6%antes de 19931472OVERFIT
TSCO+374.8%+15199.0%-14824.2%-6.0 pts1216OVERFIT
TSN+69.4%+4340.8%-4271.4%antes de 19931620OVERFIT
TT+798.2%+49748.2%-48949.9%antes de 19931652MARGINAL
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+745.3%+4901.2%-4155.9%antes de 19931832MARGINAL
TYL-78.1%+43359.1%-43437.1%antes de 19931793OVERFIT
UAL+31.1%+240.6%-209.5%-9.8 pts754OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR-82.8%+14119.5%-14202.3%antes de 19931680OVERFIT
UHS+757.9%+15293.2%-14535.3%antes de 19931621MARGINAL
ULTA+2.1%+1721.3%-1719.2%-10.9 pts639INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+30.0%+30311.4%-30281.4%antes de 19931693OVERFIT
UPS-82.8%+233.2%-316.0%-14.9 pts1013OVERFIT
URI+8090.6%+7088.3%+1002.3%+7.2 pts960GENERALIZED
USB+1075.0%+44799.0%-43724.0%antes de 19931748OVERFIT
VEEV+43.3%+668.8%-625.5%-11.4 pts429INCONCLUSIVE
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+745.7%+23394.0%-22648.2%antes de 19931555OVERFIT
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+4354.8%+48759.3%-44404.5%antes de 19931926OVERFIT
VRSK-24.0%+648.8%-672.8%-16.1 pts629INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+1179.1%+5322.0%-4142.9%+0.0 pts957MARGINAL
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR-26.3%+1496.8%-1523.2%-10.8 pts1072OVERFIT
VTRS-83.5%+1568.8%-1652.3%antes de 19931619OVERFIT
VZ-69.2%+4889.1%-4958.3%antes de 19931565OVERFIT
WAB-49.7%+4137.7%-4187.4%-13.0 pts1111OVERFIT
WAT+51.5%+10865.4%-10813.9%-9.2 pts1181OVERFIT
WEC+173.8%+23656.8%-23482.9%antes de 19931722OVERFIT
WELL-66.4%+58774.1%-58840.6%antes de 19931767OVERFIT
WFC-51.1%+63452.2%-63503.4%antes de 19931998OVERFIT
WM+4.8%+8471.2%-8466.4%antes de 19931394OVERFIT
WMB+83.9%+11974.1%-11890.2%antes de 19931585OVERFIT
WSM-57.3%+69865.8%-69923.1%antes de 19931619OVERFIT
WST+3139.4%+79208.6%-76069.2%antes de 19931614MARGINAL
WTW-38.4%+1181.6%-1220.0%-11.3 pts923OVERFIT
WY-95.5%+1781.4%-1876.8%antes de 19932050OVERFIT
WYNN-33.9%+1217.6%-1251.5%-13.1 pts864OVERFIT
XOM-89.5%+183657.9%-183747.3%antes de 19932422OVERFIT
XYL+30.3%+455.0%-424.7%-13.4 pts516INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+136.5%+527.5%-391.1%-6.4 pts367INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-44.0%+4282.5%-4326.4%-11.3 pts992OVERFIT
ZBH-14.7%+292.2%-306.8%-10.3 pts861OVERFIT
ZBRA+220.2%+8617.7%-8397.4%antes de 19931196OVERFIT
ZTS-14.6%+179.3%-193.9%-15.8 pts488INCONCLUSIVE

Divisas · 2 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD-23.8%-3.1%-20.6%-12.2 pts875OVERFIT
GBP/USD-17.9%-21.2%+3.3%-11.9 pts895OVERFIT
USD/JPY-3.0%+40.2%-43.3%-10.3 pts1119OVERFIT
USD/MXN-34.3%+49.9%-84.2%-12.8 pts880OVERFIT
AUD/USD-14.3%-6.6%-7.7%-11.9 pts763OVERFIT
USD/CAD-11.7%+1.7%-13.4%-11.7 pts926OVERFIT
USD/CHF-43.4%-41.4%-2.0%-13.6 pts904OVERFIT
NZD/USD+6.8%-8.1%+14.9%-10.7 pts853OVERFIT

Cripto · 0 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin+11157.4%+17075.3%-5918.0%+17.6 pts576INCONCLUSIVE
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+326.0%+859.3%-533.4%-5.1 pts634INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.2%-1347.8%-533.4%
Solanano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Cardanono aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Dogecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EUR/USD-87.7%-87.5%-89.5%-54.0%-20.6%
GBP/USD-87.5%-87.4%-72.2%-23.7%+3.3%
USD/JPY-136.0%-135.6%-120.8%-65.1%-43.3%
AUD/USD-7.7%
USD/CAD-136.7%-136.6%-99.4%-61.8%-13.4%
USD/CHF-85.1%-85.0%-55.6%-32.1%-2.0%
NZD/USD-82.5%-82.5%-83.1%-26.4%+14.9%
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-454.0%-441.4%-353.7%-3126.4%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-705.1%-680.8%-606.8%-1613.5%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-307.3%-296.6%-222.0%-878.6%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-269.1%-256.0%-198.3%-799.4%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-397.4%-372.9%-251.0%-760.6%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-91.8%-84.1%-41.4%-186.8%
AAPL-1349.6%-1349.6%-1311.6%-964.0%-320981.3%
AMGN-379.1%-379.1%-361.5%-243.2%-185689.6%
AMZN-836.5%-836.5%-786.5%-692.6%-260451.6%
AXP-573.8%-573.8%-526.4%-441.9%-27113.2%
BA-166.5%-166.5%-149.8%+412.4%-105325.3%
CAT-1513.0%-1513.0%-1412.8%-1157.2%-168327.5%
CRM-339.5%-339.5%-316.4%-111.8%-5832.6%
CSCO-570.4%-570.4%-561.0%-493.8%-222426.7%
CVX-358.2%-358.2%-350.8%-304.2%-68096.0%
DIS-114.8%-114.8%-102.5%-26.0%-183230.2%
GOOGL-920.8%-920.8%-901.3%-839.2%-13069.6%
GS-723.2%-723.2%-692.1%-544.3%-1876.0%
HD-324.2%-324.2%-310.2%-200.1%-1984163.9%
HON-280.6%-280.6%-264.1%-222.6%-21123.9%
IBM-286.6%-286.6%-255.4%-110.9%-16190.8%
JNJ-357.5%-357.5%-349.5%-283.4%-445091.5%
JPM-742.2%-742.2%-727.9%-591.1%-34484.4%
KO-293.4%-293.4%-280.7%-236.3%-199312.8%
MCD-285.6%-285.6%-267.9%-207.9%-236211.7%
MMM-200.3%-200.3%-192.5%-127.3%-31215.0%
MRK-409.4%-409.4%-400.1%-313.1%-233295.0%
MSFT-1077.0%-1077.0%-1063.8%-998.4%-858915.4%
NKE-74.3%-74.3%-69.8%-32.1%-31448.2%
NVDA-27586.0%-27585.8%-27331.7%-26179.6%-581861.7%
PG-246.9%-246.9%-234.5%-188.1%-59748.4%
SHW-449.0%-449.0%-435.9%-338.2%-231757.3%
TRV-422.1%-422.1%-416.3%-359.9%-11566.7%
UNH-401.4%-401.4%-383.8%-307.4%-353114.4%
V-543.9%-543.9%-537.4%-498.9%-3016.1%
WMT-607.6%-607.6%-578.7%-538.5%-915342.8%
ABNBno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ADBE-317.0%-317.0%-301.1%-193.7%-147467.0%
ADI-814.6%-814.6%-797.5%-729.3%-81618.2%
ADP-441.3%-441.3%-430.9%-358.7%-74272.6%
ADSK-432.2%-432.2%-412.4%-382.1%-57152.0%
AEP-305.4%-305.4%-290.5%-238.8%-13676.7%
ALABno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ALNY-254.9%-254.9%-243.4%-216.0%-2663.8%
AMAT-2817.9%-2817.9%-2766.7%-2673.2%-664686.0%
AMD-16807.9%-16807.9%-16680.0%-16160.3%-14268.1%
APPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ARMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ASML-2158.7%-2158.7%-2144.3%-1989.6%-96243.7%
AVGO-3403.2%-3403.1%-3271.8%-3225.2%-32276.2%
AXON-3569.4%-3569.3%-3488.7%-2803.1%-94737.1%
BKNG-421.6%-421.5%-393.7%-316.3%-942.2%
BKRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1023.1%
CCEP-415.8%-415.8%-395.3%-327.1%-7100.8%
CDNS-1658.0%-1658.0%-1637.5%-1448.5%-16892.3%
CEGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CMCSA-135.8%-135.8%-130.9%-111.5%-47088.6%
COST-707.4%-707.4%-680.9%-570.3%-12777.8%
CPRT-700.6%-700.6%-666.9%-467.9%-20585.5%
CRWDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CSX-696.6%-696.6%-687.7%-588.1%-40514.4%
CTAS-1031.2%-1031.2%-1009.9%-808.1%-122877.3%
DASHno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DDOGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DXCM-462.8%-462.8%-454.5%-353.3%-578.4%
EAno aplica
EXC-318.9%-318.9%-309.7%-264.2%-17748.5%
FANG-393.3%-393.3%-372.0%-267.8%-1369.9%
FAST-656.9%-656.9%-647.2%-578.0%-260010.3%
FERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-557.2%
FTNT-2745.6%-2745.6%-2728.8%-2585.5%-10119.9%
GEHCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
GILD-214.0%-214.0%-211.2%-177.0%-33565.7%
HONAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
IDXX-780.4%-780.3%-771.6%-619.4%-58153.4%
INTC-333.1%-333.1%-319.8%-228.5%-49259.1%
INTU-414.2%-414.2%-399.0%-349.3%-15431.8%
ISRG-612.6%-612.6%-597.0%-531.5%-17854.7%
KHC-56.8%-56.8%-52.9%-25.5%-14.5%
KLAC-3063.6%-3063.6%-3035.9%-2874.6%-289457.4%
LINno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-10848.3%
LITE-4008.1%-4008.1%-3991.1%-3707.8%-4626.6%
LRCX-4481.4%-4481.4%-4462.0%-4207.3%-159883.0%
MAR-594.3%-594.3%-566.7%-434.5%-2513.2%
MCHP-391.6%-391.6%-376.1%-230.7%-42038.7%
MDLZ-182.0%-182.0%-172.5%-134.3%-522.2%
MELI-1800.1%-1800.1%-1743.6%-1577.3%-6377.3%
META-570.4%-570.4%-557.2%-450.9%-1473.1%
MNST-194.8%-194.8%-190.7%-113.3%-61297.1%
MPWR-2250.5%-2250.4%-2237.7%-2193.4%-14476.1%
MRVL-2679.8%-2679.8%-2661.2%-2439.0%-1521.1%
MSTR-743.9%-743.9%-544.1%+709.5%+13437.4%
MU-6675.8%-6675.8%-6521.1%-6253.5%-70061.6%
NFLX-743.2%-743.2%-718.3%-580.7%-66191.3%
NXPI-300.5%-300.5%-292.5%-272.8%-1686.8%
ODFL-1063.8%-1063.8%-1034.0%-837.3%-36542.2%
ORLY-539.4%-539.4%-519.2%-427.7%-54757.3%
PANW-1299.9%-1299.9%-1231.9%-876.7%-3839.7%
PCAR-580.1%-580.1%-572.9%-519.0%-56784.4%
PDDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PEP-196.8%-196.8%-191.0%-151.1%-37839.5%
PLTRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PYPL-155.8%-155.8%-150.7%-102.9%-95.0%
QCOM-438.6%-438.6%-423.2%-318.4%-50449.1%
REGN-155.2%-155.2%-149.2%-100.4%-3780.9%
ROP-244.2%-244.2%-237.9%-188.3%-25859.8%
ROST-465.7%-465.7%-456.1%-385.3%-55205.6%
SBUX-232.0%-232.0%-225.1%-158.2%-42922.2%
SHOP-5944.8%-5944.6%-5337.4%-5473.8%-8334.7%
SNDKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
SNPS-985.3%-985.3%-954.1%-906.3%-5575.4%
STX-3652.5%-3652.5%-3594.6%-3468.8%-8090.3%
TER-1857.0%-1857.0%-1830.1%-1451.6%-29862.9%
TMUS-489.7%-489.7%-480.3%-448.1%-352.7%
TRI-362.7%-362.7%-345.6%-245.2%-591.4%
TSLA-2341.6%-2341.5%-1836.8%-519.0%-17966.5%
TTWO-688.9%-688.9%-681.5%-645.2%-5533.1%
TXN-637.7%-637.7%-633.2%-589.8%-38103.1%
VRTX-440.8%-440.8%-431.1%-387.3%-11941.2%
WBDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+32.8%
WDAY-263.3%-263.3%-250.3%-165.9%-331.3%
WDC-1171.5%-1171.5%-1103.1%-824.4%-62792.4%
XEL-295.9%-295.9%-285.8%-202.2%-7317.1%
KDP-278.1%-278.1%-263.5%-207.1%-905.8%
USD/MXN-135.0%-134.9%-143.7%-94.1%-84.2%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18084.8%-18059.0%-5918.0%
Etherno aplica

2 / 472 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 6 / 472

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
er_period 10, fast_sc 2, slow_sc 30-45.4%-0.46-71.6%-3126.4%
er_period 5, fast_sc 2, slow_sc 30-65.3%-0.55-79.0%-3146.4%
er_period 20, fast_sc 2, slow_sc 3043.8%-0.21-49.0%-3037.2%
er_period 10, fast_sc 4, slow_sc 20273.7%0.05-38.1%-2807.3%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Sharpe deflactado: 0.09 (< 0.95)

Suite de robustez: MODERATE

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (-56.0% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (+24.0% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0905 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto 6540eaf5c46b · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 12; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 21 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). La media adaptativa de Kaufman (KAMA): funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto 6540eaf5c46b. https://finaxion.app/research/kama

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