FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Seguimiento de tendencia · Actualizado 2026-09-10

Las Tortugas: ruptura de 55 días

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: divisas, en 4 horas, comprando varios activos en señal — bate en 24 de 961 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
17 / 489
Vs. índice
-8.7 pts/año
Rendimiento total
101.5%
Sharpe
-0.17
Caída máxima
-37.9%
Operaciones
163
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de Las Tortugas: ruptura de 55 días?

La estrategia Las Tortugas: ruptura de 55 días no funciona de forma consistente en ninguna clase de activo; donde menos mal va es en divisas: 4 de 40 (10 %), mientras que donde peor va es en acciones sueltas: bate en 18 de 904. De los 17 mercados diarios donde bate, 5 aguantan fuera de muestra (29 %), y ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice, lo que indica que el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona. Mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118; en 4 horas, en 5 de 118, aunque ha envejecido, ya que en 40 mercados batía en la primera mitad del histórico y dejó de hacerlo en la segunda; lo contrario solo pasa en 16.

  1. No hay una clase de activo donde las Tortugas: ruptura de 55 días funcione de forma consistente; donde menos mal va es en divisas: 4 de 40 (10 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en acciones sueltas: bate en 18 de 904.
  3. De los 17 mercados diarios donde bate, 5 aguantan fuera de muestra (29 %).
  4. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  5. Mejora al alargar la vela: en 5 minutos bate en 0 de 118; en 4 horas, en 5 de 118.
  6. Envejeció: en 40 mercados batía en la primera mitad del histórico y dejó de hacerlo en la segunda; lo contrario solo pasa en 16.
  7. Su mejor mercado diario es AXON: +24,1 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 25 años, 79 operaciones.
  8. Su peor mercado diario es NCLH: -27,1 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto 0712690e8935.

Lo que se promete

«Compra cuando el precio hace un máximo de 55 días. Es el sistema que hizo millonarios a las Tortugas de Richard Dennis.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Cierre por encima del máximo de los 55 días anteriores → entrada. Cierre por debajo del mínimo de los 20 días anteriores → salida (Sistema 2 original). Sin piramidación ni sizing por ATR: se prueba solo la señal.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)+101.5%+3081.0%-2979.5%-8.7 pts163OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+188.8%+1565.8%-1377.1%-4.6 pts128OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+21.7%+801.9%-780.2%-7.9 pts129OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+224.0%+830.9%-607.0%-6.5 pts96OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+138.4%+820.3%-681.9%-6.9 pts89OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+59.4%+131.2%-71.8%-9.3 pts86OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · máx. 10)+303.1%+3081.0%-2777.9%-6.6 pts1075

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · máx. 20)+42869.3%+3081.0%+39788.3%+9.0 pts3463

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · máx. 25)+232.4%+3081.0%-2848.6%-7.2 pts7439

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 12 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 21 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL+11952.4%+322813.1%-310860.6%antes de 1993191MARGINAL
AMGN+2712.4%+187272.6%-184560.1%antes de 1993177MARGINAL
AMZN+1253.9%+265196.1%-263942.2%-0.4 pts131OVERFIT
AXP+446.6%+27029.4%-26582.7%antes de 1993220OVERFIT
BA+3813.7%+108724.7%-104910.9%antes de 1993253MARGINAL
CAT+2452.3%+172708.3%-170256.0%antes de 1993252OVERFIT
CRM+222.1%+5992.9%-5770.8%-5.5 pts87OVERFIT
CSCO+6830.0%+222956.6%-216126.6%antes de 1993152MARGINAL
CVX+145.2%+68037.6%-67892.4%antes de 1993247OVERFIT
DIS+17882.5%+189847.3%-171964.8%antes de 1993247OVERFIT
GOOGL+158.3%+13534.3%-13376.0%-6.9 pts102OVERFIT
GS+363.2%+2027.1%-1664.0%-2.7 pts120OVERFIT
HD+3008.3%+1985758.9%-1982750.6%antes de 1993204OVERFIT
HON-0.8%+21058.8%-21059.6%antes de 1993294OVERFIT
IBM+266.8%+16203.8%-15937.1%antes de 1993276OVERFIT
JNJ+803.1%+445196.6%-444393.5%antes de 1993281OVERFIT
JPM+590.4%+34522.5%-33932.0%antes de 1993183OVERFIT
KO+889.7%+199349.6%-198459.9%antes de 1993271OVERFIT
MCD+601.9%+236707.0%-236105.1%antes de 1993252OVERFIT
MMM-20.0%+31160.0%-31180.0%antes de 1993289OVERFIT
MRK+636.1%+233375.1%-232739.0%antes de 1993283OVERFIT
MSFT+6557.5%+859506.0%-852948.4%antes de 1993163MARGINAL
NKE+1192.4%+32003.7%-30811.3%antes de 1993176OVERFIT
NVDA+82203.5%+587720.8%-505517.3%+18.9 pts113GENERALIZED
PG+371.5%+59706.6%-59335.2%antes de 1993259OVERFIT
SHW+724.3%+231766.6%-231042.2%antes de 1993191MARGINAL
TRV-47.3%+12287.7%-12335.0%antes de 1993232OVERFIT
UNH+1165.9%+353381.4%-352215.5%antes de 1993174OVERFIT
V+134.5%+2961.1%-2826.6%-7.4 pts75INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+1305.7%+915365.3%-914059.7%antes de 1993236MARGINAL
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+1867.0%+147731.1%-145864.0%antes de 1993169MARGINAL
ADI-64.2%+81534.0%-81598.2%antes de 1993210OVERFIT
ADP+423.1%+74205.9%-73782.8%antes de 1993197OVERFIT
ADSK+298.0%+58084.6%-57786.6%antes de 1993161OVERFIT
AEP+337.4%+13797.6%-13460.2%antes de 1993254OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+142.1%+3338.4%-3196.3%-7.0 pts78OVERFIT
AMAT+15432.8%+664974.8%-649542.1%antes de 1993182OVERFIT
AMD+12441.8%+14863.3%-2421.5%antes de 1993166MARGINAL
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+1623.5%+96277.5%-94653.9%-1.5 pts150OVERFIT
AVGO+631.3%+32512.1%-31880.8%-2.3 pts76INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+147291.0%+123065.2%+24225.8%+24.1 pts79MARGINAL
BKNG+2144.6%+922.2%+1222.4%+3.4 pts101OVERFIT
BKR+13.1%+933.9%-920.8%antes de 1993148OVERFIT
CCEP+192.4%+7081.8%-6889.4%antes de 1993165OVERFIT
CDNS+23.5%+16839.0%-16815.5%antes de 1993172OVERFIT
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+366.0%+47049.9%-46683.9%antes de 1993182OVERFIT
COST+182.5%+12800.7%-12618.2%antes de 1993166OVERFIT
CPRT+237.4%+21554.9%-21317.5%-7.1 pts135OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+58.3%+40426.1%-40367.8%antes de 1993203OVERFIT
CTAS+655.4%+123411.3%-122755.9%antes de 1993185OVERFIT
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+900.5%+3002.6%-2102.0%+0.1 pts71OVERFIT
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+1317.5%+17730.6%-16413.1%antes de 1993192MARGINAL
FANG+180.6%+1406.8%-1226.2%-7.1 pts52INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+223.2%+262350.7%-262127.5%antes de 1993169OVERFIT
FER+36.9%+593.7%-556.8%-12.5 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+994.3%+10184.6%-9190.3%+1.2 pts59INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+86.1%+33594.8%-33508.7%antes de 1993151OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+746.2%+58789.5%-58043.3%antes de 1993145MARGINAL
INTC+140.6%+49216.9%-49076.3%antes de 1993222OVERFIT
INTU+66.0%+15430.2%-15364.2%-9.3 pts147OVERFIT
ISRG+512.7%+18484.9%-17972.2%-1.2 pts104OVERFIT
KDP+61.8%+1090.2%-1028.4%-9.1 pts74INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-21.0%-42.2%+21.2%-16.4 pts41INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+300.9%+289399.1%-289098.3%antes de 1993202OVERFIT
LIN-12.9%+10777.0%-10789.9%antes de 1993162OVERFIT
LITE+851.7%+5280.9%-4429.2%+8.3 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+1579.7%+159814.6%-158234.9%antes de 1993174OVERFIT
MAR-6.9%+2539.5%-2546.4%-9.2 pts126OVERFIT
MCHP-9.3%+41961.5%-41970.8%-11.1 pts146OVERFIT
MDLZ-40.7%+461.4%-502.1%-11.5 pts113OVERFIT
MELI+92.3%+6911.0%-6818.8%-7.7 pts85INCONCLUSIVE
META+375.3%+1410.2%-1034.9%-3.7 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+2454.6%+61968.9%-59514.2%antes de 1993130OVERFIT
MPWR+295.6%+15002.1%-14706.5%-4.5 pts94OVERFIT
MRVL+268.8%+1645.0%-1376.2%-3.3 pts98OVERFIT
MSTR+3335.0%+1158.6%+2176.4%+4.4 pts103MARGINAL
MU+19167.8%+70877.8%-51710.0%antes de 1993148MARGINAL
NFLX+13940.4%+67643.2%-53702.8%+12.3 pts96GENERALIZED
NXPI+276.1%+1721.2%-1445.1%-6.1 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+149.6%+36444.7%-36295.1%antes de 1993142OVERFIT
ORLY+383.0%+55255.7%-54872.7%-6.1 pts138OVERFIT
PANW+122.8%+4215.4%-4092.6%-9.1 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+982.8%+57106.4%-56123.6%antes de 1993194OVERFIT
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+36.0%+37760.7%-37724.7%antes de 1993246OVERFIT
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL+22.5%+44.7%-22.2%-12.5 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+3451.3%+50430.1%-46978.8%antes de 1993132MARGINAL
REGN+36.7%+3718.3%-3681.6%antes de 1993133OVERFIT
ROP+1195.3%+26003.6%-24808.3%antes de 1993131MARGINAL
ROST+1206.7%+55801.1%-54594.5%antes de 1993166OVERFIT
SBUX+738.2%+43019.5%-42281.4%antes de 1993130MARGINAL
SHOP+678.1%+8568.8%-7890.7%+6.1 pts39INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+10.7%+5482.1%-5471.4%antes de 1993146OVERFIT
STX+4331.8%+15614.6%-11282.8%+5.9 pts90OVERFIT
TER+1093.7%+31309.8%-30216.1%antes de 1993212OVERFIT
TMUS+16.4%+318.0%-301.5%-10.1 pts78INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+2.2%+578.4%-576.2%-10.6 pts103OVERFIT
TSLA+1209.6%+23002.8%-21793.2%+2.1 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+6.6%+5509.7%-5503.1%-9.8 pts116OVERFIT
TXN+668.8%+38040.6%-37371.8%antes de 1993228OVERFIT
VRTX+56.4%+12000.4%-11944.1%antes de 1993135OVERFIT
WBD+89.4%+302.2%-212.7%-8.1 pts75OVERFIT
WDAY-67.6%+305.5%-373.1%-22.6 pts71INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+1535.2%+66202.2%-64667.0%antes de 1993180OVERFIT
XEL+63.4%+7388.9%-7325.5%antes de 1993226OVERFIT
A+252.5%+486.3%-233.8%-3.5 pts105OVERFIT
ABBV+178.1%+1156.0%-978.0%-7.0 pts55INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+131.6%+62056.2%-61924.6%antes de 1993199OVERFIT
ACGL+139.1%+4268.0%-4129.0%-7.7 pts117OVERFIT
ACN+57.5%+1726.5%-1669.0%-7.7 pts112OVERFIT
ADM+186.5%+9265.6%-9079.1%antes de 1993174OVERFIT
AEE-47.3%+813.9%-861.3%-11.5 pts140OVERFIT
AES+374.0%+647.5%-273.4%antes de 1993137MARGINAL
AFL+572.1%+205848.4%-205276.4%antes de 1993190OVERFIT
AIG+58.2%+468.3%-410.1%antes de 1993222OVERFIT
AIZ+111.1%+1585.5%-1474.3%-7.5 pts99OVERFIT
AJG+395.5%+41899.5%-41504.0%antes de 1993187OVERFIT
AKAM+651.7%-25.2%+676.9%-0.7 pts100OVERFIT
ALB+310.9%+3091.3%-2780.4%-6.4 pts124OVERFIT
ALGN+165.3%+846.9%-681.6%-5.0 pts96OVERFIT
ALL+82.5%+3674.2%-3591.7%-9.0 pts139OVERFIT
ALLE-11.6%+265.9%-277.5%-14.9 pts59INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-34.8%+100.6%-135.4%-18.0 pts55INCONCLUSIVE
AME+250.0%+25325.0%-25075.0%antes de 1993165OVERFIT
AMP+281.8%+2154.1%-1872.3%-4.5 pts87MARGINAL
AMT+463.9%+1310.2%-846.2%-2.8 pts106OVERFIT
ANET+43.7%+5592.8%-5549.1%-10.7 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
AON+332.2%+29815.0%-29482.8%antes de 1993196MARGINAL
AOS+2708.7%+13924.9%-11216.2%antes de 1993163OVERFIT
APA-54.5%+2417.2%-2471.8%antes de 1993189OVERFIT
APD+37.6%+20722.2%-20684.6%antes de 1993209OVERFIT
APH+468.4%+146951.6%-146483.2%antes de 1993154OVERFIT
APO+72.5%+1845.9%-1773.3%-10.4 pts67INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-20.3%+174.0%-194.3%-16.8 pts68INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-6.9%+624.3%-631.2%-9.9 pts128OVERFIT
ARES+26.9%+1191.9%-1165.0%-12.0 pts53INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-31.6%+13696.4%-13728.0%antes de 1993172OVERFIT
AVB-11.4%+42.3%-53.7%-16.4 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+73.0%+8544.4%-8471.4%antes de 1993223OVERFIT
AWK+146.6%+950.9%-804.3%-6.8 pts73INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+855.9%+40631.8%-39775.9%antes de 1993140MARGINAL
BAC+39.8%+4053.1%-4013.3%antes de 1993219OVERFIT
BALL+386.9%+49568.6%-49181.6%antes de 1993233OVERFIT
BAX-21.9%+1778.4%-1800.3%antes de 1993181OVERFIT
BBY+6410.4%+89506.6%-83096.3%antes de 1993171OVERFIT
BDX-35.0%+21440.4%-21475.3%antes de 1993249OVERFIT
BEN+1675.0%+130378.8%-128703.8%antes de 1993173MARGINAL
BF-B+14.3%+14873.5%-14859.2%antes de 1993211OVERFIT
BG+38.4%+1105.5%-1067.1%-8.2 pts106OVERFIT
BIIB+2490.8%+6832.8%-4342.0%antes de 1993111OVERFIT
BLDR+94.3%+393.7%-299.5%-8.0 pts76OVERFIT
BLK+500.8%+13724.5%-13223.7%-1.8 pts109OVERFIT
BMY+537.8%+23662.6%-23124.8%antes de 1993211MARGINAL
BNY+26.5%+32230.3%-32203.8%antes de 1993233OVERFIT
BR+335.8%+1234.2%-898.4%-3.1 pts85INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+135.6%+2072.5%-1937.0%-7.5 pts121OVERFIT
BRO+2039.0%+76212.8%-74173.7%antes de 1993149MARGINAL
BSX+254.8%+1028.2%-773.4%antes de 1993124OVERFIT
BX+102.1%+1023.3%-921.2%-7.1 pts79INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+27.1%+888.9%-861.9%-8.7 pts128OVERFIT
C+19.5%+1897.9%-1878.4%antes de 1993202OVERFIT
CAH+173.8%+39284.8%-39110.9%antes de 1993190OVERFIT
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY-33.4%+80461.2%-80494.6%antes de 1993204OVERFIT
CB+57.4%+6587.6%-6530.2%-9.4 pts148OVERFIT
CBOE+202.6%+1060.1%-857.5%-7.5 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+557.2%+2283.8%-1726.6%-2.1 pts97OVERFIT
CCI+176.6%+899.9%-723.3%-5.3 pts112OVERFIT
CCL+33.8%+1154.4%-1120.6%antes de 1993154OVERFIT
CDW+48.3%+858.2%-809.9%-11.4 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
CF+715.4%+5815.9%-5100.5%-0.6 pts83OVERFIT
CFG+128.5%+349.9%-221.4%-6.6 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+324.0%+93736.5%-93412.5%antes de 1993185OVERFIT
CHRW-54.5%+4307.6%-4362.1%-12.0 pts118OVERFIT
CHTR+328.1%+335.5%-7.5%-5.0 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
CI+482.4%+12980.8%-12498.5%antes de 1993176MARGINAL
CIEN+139.2%+195.6%-56.4%-6.9 pts118OVERFIT
CINF+1054.2%+41545.9%-40491.8%antes de 1993196OVERFIT
CL-48.5%+20919.0%-20967.5%antes de 1993243OVERFIT
CLX-23.3%+6184.2%-6207.5%antes de 1993221OVERFIT
CME+722.1%+6884.2%-6162.1%-2.1 pts93OVERFIT
CMG+297.5%+4221.6%-3924.1%-4.2 pts79OVERFIT
CMI+7882.8%+28968.2%-21085.4%antes de 1993214MARGINAL
CMS+731.6%+630.8%+100.8%antes de 1993206OVERFIT
CNC+34.9%+4388.8%-4353.9%-8.8 pts99OVERFIT
CNP+952.2%+13998.0%-13045.8%antes de 1993236OVERFIT
COF+43.8%+5724.6%-5680.7%-10.0 pts135OVERFIT
COHR+197.7%+68288.9%-68091.2%antes de 1993148OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+242.9%+879.8%-636.9%antes de 1993158OVERFIT
COP+94.5%+13561.7%-13467.1%antes de 1993181OVERFIT
COR+475.5%+17062.1%-16586.5%-5.2 pts123OVERFIT
CPAY-9.8%+1383.7%-1393.5%-14.9 pts71INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+17.1%+2453.9%-2436.8%-10.4 pts138OVERFIT
CRH-24.3%+7617.9%-7642.2%antes de 1993156OVERFIT
CRL-51.2%+1210.2%-1261.4%-11.2 pts111OVERFIT
CSGP+464.3%+3390.6%-2926.3%-2.5 pts112OVERFIT
CTSH+365.7%+35498.3%-35132.6%-3.4 pts115OVERFIT
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+279.8%+15658.6%-15378.9%antes de 1993218OVERFIT
D+20.0%+17762.4%-17742.5%antes de 1993210OVERFIT
DAL-74.4%+339.1%-413.5%-17.6 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
DD-31.1%+10113.6%-10144.7%antes de 1993222OVERFIT
DE+334.7%+101089.1%-100754.4%antes de 1993223OVERFIT
DECK+1462.8%+7024.7%-5562.0%-2.1 pts114OVERFIT
DELL+725.9%+4059.8%-3333.9%+8.3 pts39INCONCLUSIVE
DG+30.6%+550.3%-519.7%-12.7 pts75INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+110.8%+9626.0%-9515.2%-7.6 pts129OVERFIT
DHI+69.3%+13111.0%-13041.7%antes de 1993142OVERFIT
DHR+1236.4%+483557.2%-482320.8%antes de 1993205OVERFIT
DLR+63.3%+3540.7%-3477.4%-8.9 pts94OVERFIT
DLTR+90.3%+10731.5%-10641.2%-9.0 pts123OVERFIT
DOC+208.7%+6136.8%-5928.1%antes de 1993166OVERFIT
DOV-12.5%+29264.8%-29277.4%antes de 1993226OVERFIT
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+428.1%+5638.6%-5210.5%-3.3 pts87OVERFIT
DRI-7.2%+6998.7%-7005.9%-11.1 pts135OVERFIT
DTE+764.5%+35264.3%-34499.8%antes de 1993238OVERFIT
DUK+377.7%+16239.0%-15861.4%antes de 1993182OVERFIT
DVA+260.6%+4219.3%-3958.7%-6.4 pts120OVERFIT
DVN+336.7%+1411.9%-1075.2%antes de 1993159OVERFIT
EBAY+47.7%+14035.1%-13987.4%-7.9 pts116OVERFIT
ECHO+41.3%+227.3%-186.0%-9.5 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+40.2%+20174.1%-20133.9%antes de 1993231OVERFIT
ED+1217.2%+45081.6%-43864.4%antes de 1993250OVERFIT
EFX+1553.9%+77234.4%-75680.5%antes de 1993181MARGINAL
EG-48.8%+2975.7%-3024.5%-12.7 pts137OVERFIT
EIX+178.0%+14610.5%-14432.5%antes de 1993236OVERFIT
EL+73.1%+1551.3%-1478.3%-8.7 pts121OVERFIT
ELV-3.6%+2326.9%-2330.5%-10.4 pts106OVERFIT
EME+853.1%+59203.5%-58350.3%-3.8 pts134OVERFIT
EMR-25.1%+19839.1%-19864.2%antes de 1993229OVERFIT
EOG+205.8%+9279.7%-9073.9%antes de 1993145OVERFIT
EQIX+1437.0%+240.5%+1196.5%+2.6 pts100OVERFIT
EQR-19.7%+44.2%-63.9%-17.4 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
EQT-0.9%+19557.1%-19558.1%antes de 1993190OVERFIT
ERIE+631.9%+3362.8%-2730.9%-3.9 pts117OVERFIT
ES+71.0%+2960.1%-2889.1%antes de 1993210OVERFIT
ESS+90.8%+5274.8%-5184.0%-9.0 pts136OVERFIT
ETN+542.1%+116541.5%-115999.3%antes de 1993255OVERFIT
ETR+432.3%+19797.9%-19365.6%antes de 1993222OVERFIT
EVRG+61.8%+5086.7%-5024.9%antes de 1993222OVERFIT
EW-60.0%+6500.0%-6560.0%-11.6 pts124OVERFIT
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD-12.0%+148324.6%-148336.6%antes de 1993185OVERFIT
EXPE+245.0%+916.1%-671.1%-5.0 pts81OVERFIT
EXR+40.0%+2698.9%-2658.9%-9.8 pts100OVERFIT
F+3180.3%+6752.4%-3572.1%antes de 1993196OVERFIT
FCX+535.2%+1061.6%-526.4%-4.5 pts115MARGINAL
FDS+155.3%+9088.9%-8933.6%-7.1 pts133OVERFIT
FDX+848.4%+53776.9%-52928.6%antes de 1993209OVERFIT
FDXFno aplica · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+0.6%+563.0%-562.4%-9.5 pts124OVERFIT
FFIV+940.2%+5374.0%-4433.8%+0.5 pts103OVERFIT
FICO+1833.3%+94747.8%-92914.5%antes de 1993152OVERFIT
FIS+47.7%+363.8%-316.1%-7.9 pts101OVERFIT
FITB+1960.5%+28280.0%-26319.6%antes de 1993186MARGINAL
FIX+207.9%+11966.2%-11758.4%-5.6 pts120OVERFIT
FLEX+225.7%+7898.6%-7672.9%-7.2 pts132OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+22.8%+24360.2%-24337.5%antes de 1993230OVERFIT
FSLR+296.8%+716.1%-419.3%-3.8 pts72OVERFIT
FTV-5.8%+100.1%-105.9%-16.1 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
GD+463.8%+221689.9%-221226.1%antes de 1993283OVERFIT
GDDY-48.1%+389.4%-437.5%-19.6 pts48INCONCLUSIVE
GE+892.2%+54356.2%-53464.1%antes de 1993282OVERFIT
GEN+212.6%+12085.6%-11873.0%antes de 1993153OVERFIT
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+33.5%+15015.5%-14982.0%antes de 1993195OVERFIT
GL+225.7%+12680.6%-12454.8%antes de 1993198OVERFIT
GLW+5173.0%+19301.2%-14128.2%antes de 1993178OVERFIT
GM-41.4%+240.1%-281.5%-17.8 pts69INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+1527.0%+2091.1%-564.1%+3.8 pts52INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-29.1%+12785.5%-12814.7%antes de 1993207OVERFIT
GPN+243.2%+2567.9%-2324.7%-4.1 pts101OVERFIT
GRMN+799.0%+5377.3%-4578.3%-0.0 pts101MARGINAL
GWW+362.8%+55300.2%-54937.3%antes de 1993236OVERFIT
HAL+127.0%+2860.8%-2733.8%antes de 1993216OVERFIT
HAS+1046.9%+201529.8%-200482.9%antes de 1993183OVERFIT
HBAN+153.5%+3799.5%-3646.0%antes de 1993174OVERFIT
HCA-3.3%+1699.7%-1703.0%-14.4 pts78INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+153.2%+951.1%-797.8%-7.3 pts119OVERFIT
HII+483.2%+883.6%-400.4%-2.1 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
HLT-13.0%+659.1%-672.1%-15.2 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE-1.8%+625.0%-626.9%-15.0 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+2257.9%+77945.5%-75687.6%antes de 1993239OVERFIT
HRL+300.7%+19046.1%-18745.4%antes de 1993202MARGINAL
HSIC-67.0%+1913.1%-1980.1%-14.1 pts143OVERFIT
HST+243.6%+12843.9%-12600.2%antes de 1993186OVERFIT
HSY+319.4%+53964.6%-53645.2%antes de 1993200OVERFIT
HUBB-4.6%+3853.5%-3858.1%-11.2 pts148OVERFIT
HUM+490.4%+20168.9%-19678.5%antes de 1993168OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+198.7%+1526.1%-1327.4%-4.9 pts71INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-14.7%+2307.9%-2322.6%-12.0 pts99OVERFIT
IEX+444.1%+12761.2%-12317.1%antes de 1993159MARGINAL
IFF-75.8%+4754.9%-4830.7%antes de 1993219OVERFIT
INCY+942.8%+6471.7%-5528.9%-3.5 pts121OVERFIT
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-85.2%+4590.1%-4675.3%antes de 1993277OVERFIT
IQV+82.9%+520.3%-437.4%-9.6 pts47INCONCLUSIVE
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+537.9%+9911.6%-9373.6%-4.1 pts126OVERFIT
IT+215.1%+6431.0%-6215.9%-7.3 pts139MARGINAL
ITW+20.5%+51254.1%-51233.6%antes de 1993247OVERFIT
IVZ+44.0%+1093.8%-1049.8%-9.5 pts129OVERFIT
J+483.6%+33544.7%-33061.1%antes de 1993181MARGINAL
JBHT+217.0%+24926.6%-24709.6%antes de 1993178MARGINAL
JBL+527.6%+41217.7%-40690.1%-5.2 pts152MARGINAL
JCI+477.9%+4376.5%-3898.6%antes de 1993147OVERFIT
JKHY+502.0%+71288.2%-70786.2%antes de 1993157OVERFIT
KEY-0.5%+1405.6%-1406.1%antes de 1993164OVERFIT
KEYS+151.1%+1042.3%-891.2%-6.3 pts48INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+133.5%+3036.5%-2903.0%antes de 1993150OVERFIT
KKR+197.7%+1784.9%-1587.1%-7.8 pts67INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+44.7%+16039.9%-15995.2%antes de 1993211OVERFIT
KMI+57.8%+117.5%-59.7%-10.9 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
KR+1335.7%+182706.1%-181370.4%antes de 1993254OVERFIT
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+473.4%+22398.8%-21925.4%antes de 1993202OVERFIT
LDOS+56.7%+530.2%-473.6%-8.8 pts83OVERFIT
LEN+531.4%+29032.9%-28501.6%antes de 1993176OVERFIT
LH-54.5%+1408.2%-1462.7%antes de 1993145OVERFIT
LHX+193.7%+8519.5%-8325.8%antes de 1993186OVERFIT
LII+166.4%+3122.4%-2956.0%-4.8 pts110MARGINAL
LLY+233.2%+129720.0%-129486.8%antes de 1993237OVERFIT
LMT+1174.5%+67444.7%-66270.2%antes de 1993252OVERFIT
LNT+419.9%+9408.5%-8988.6%antes de 1993204OVERFIT
LOW+1690.4%+77328.4%-75638.0%antes de 1993196MARGINAL
LULU+592.6%+759.0%-166.4%-0.4 pts80INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+249.1%+24508.5%-24259.4%antes de 1993194OVERFIT
LVS+354.0%+50.3%+303.7%-3.7 pts78OVERFIT
LYB+252.3%+648.8%-396.6%-6.0 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+72.8%+1558.0%-1485.2%-8.4 pts89OVERFIT
MA+686.5%+14066.9%-13380.5%-0.5 pts75OVERFIT
MAA+91.4%+3525.2%-3433.7%-8.8 pts134OVERFIT
MAS-18.4%+7423.1%-7441.5%antes de 1993194OVERFIT
MCK+187.6%+6946.5%-6758.8%-7.8 pts139OVERFIT
MCO+81.3%+7753.9%-7672.6%-9.2 pts139OVERFIT
MDT+440.0%+51421.0%-50981.0%antes de 1993207OVERFIT
MET-71.9%+1176.9%-1248.8%-13.0 pts125OVERFIT
MGM-74.9%+1501.4%-1576.3%antes de 1993164OVERFIT
MKC+3.3%+14401.8%-14398.5%antes de 1993221OVERFIT
MLM+323.4%+3089.6%-2766.2%-6.3 pts124OVERFIT
MO+18863.3%+2914781.4%-2895918.1%antes de 1993254MARGINAL
MOS+29.5%+268.9%-239.4%antes de 1993149OVERFIT
MPC+231.1%+2972.8%-2741.7%-6.3 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+33.2%+21192.9%-21159.6%antes de 1993239OVERFIT
MS-16.5%+6159.1%-6175.6%-11.4 pts148OVERFIT
MSCI+41.5%+2406.7%-2365.2%-9.4 pts86INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+6196.9%+79243.2%-73046.3%antes de 1993253OVERFIT
MTB+1574.4%+105049.8%-103475.4%antes de 1993184OVERFIT
MTD+166.7%+9346.3%-9179.6%-6.0 pts123OVERFIT
NCLH-83.2%-34.9%-48.3%-27.1 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+329.5%+2371.2%-2041.7%-4.7 pts99OVERFIT
NDSN+816.1%+37769.3%-36953.2%antes de 1993167MARGINAL
NEE+219.0%+23772.9%-23553.9%antes de 1993212OVERFIT
NEM-49.9%+2099.8%-2149.7%antes de 1993195OVERFIT
NI+98.4%+5234.9%-5136.5%antes de 1993214OVERFIT
NOC+485.0%+23369.3%-22884.3%antes de 1993191OVERFIT
NOW-19.9%+2907.9%-2927.8%-16.5 pts67INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+234.6%+1442.6%-1208.0%-5.6 pts92OVERFIT
NSC+366.0%+24520.7%-24154.6%antes de 1993187OVERFIT
NTAP+2785.3%+19659.8%-16874.4%+1.1 pts123MARGINAL
NTRS+219.5%+53074.8%-52855.3%antes de 1993197OVERFIT
NUE+65.6%+70209.1%-70143.5%antes de 1993213OVERFIT
NVR+3691.5%+61512.0%-57820.5%+0.8 pts124MARGINAL
NWS-9.2%+152.4%-161.5%-15.1 pts55INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-16.5%+122.2%-138.7%-15.7 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
O+174.4%+5366.4%-5192.0%-7.9 pts132OVERFIT
OKE+3350.6%+19101.6%-15751.0%antes de 1993181OVERFIT
OMC+146.4%+15677.5%-15531.2%antes de 1993197OVERFIT
ON+209.8%+208.7%+1.1%-4.0 pts96OVERFIT
ORCL+772.8%+296729.4%-295956.6%antes de 1993176OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+62.3%+3580.0%-3517.7%antes de 1993171OVERFIT
PCG+1246.5%+1389.7%-143.2%antes de 1993188OVERFIT
PEG+271.4%+18884.4%-18613.0%antes de 1993188OVERFIT
PFE+90.1%+20062.7%-19972.6%antes de 1993201OVERFIT
PFG+19.4%+920.1%-900.7%-9.4 pts103OVERFIT
PGR+2728.7%+819581.9%-816853.2%antes de 1993207MARGINAL
PH+228.9%+41129.4%-40900.5%antes de 1993211OVERFIT
PHM+1515.5%+95847.7%-94332.1%antes de 1993193OVERFIT
PLD+136.2%+1782.5%-1646.4%-6.3 pts119OVERFIT
PM+38.0%+785.7%-747.7%-10.5 pts77INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+370.9%+37937.9%-37566.9%antes de 1993206OVERFIT
PNR+23.3%+11510.8%-11487.5%antes de 1993210OVERFIT
PNW+276.5%+2247.6%-1971.1%antes de 1993208OVERFIT
PODD+41.9%+831.5%-789.6%-9.0 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+65.1%+21327.4%-21262.3%antes de 1993198OVERFIT
PPL+71.0%+7311.8%-7240.9%antes de 1993192OVERFIT
PRU+0.0%+767.8%-767.7%-10.1 pts111OVERFIT
PSA+196.4%+13958.7%-13762.3%antes de 1993182OVERFIT
PSKY+30.6%-34.8%+65.4%-9.8 pts76OVERFIT
PSX+128.3%+1071.7%-943.3%-8.7 pts63INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-85.2%+8443.5%-8528.6%antes de 1993161OVERFIT
PWR+232.5%+8155.1%-7922.5%-4.9 pts126OVERFIT
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+617.4%+4611.6%-3994.3%-4.8 pts135MARGINAL
REG+50.0%+2046.5%-1996.5%-9.6 pts140OVERFIT
RF+6.9%+7230.0%-7223.1%antes de 1993197OVERFIT
RJF+858.6%+52691.1%-51832.4%antes de 1993171OVERFIT
RL-63.6%+1376.9%-1440.5%-12.9 pts132OVERFIT
RMD+624.6%+43254.4%-42629.8%-4.2 pts133OVERFIT
ROK+1802.8%+57325.7%-55522.9%antes de 1993158OVERFIT
ROL+37.4%+36503.9%-36466.6%antes de 1993186OVERFIT
RSG-40.7%+1977.7%-2018.4%-10.7 pts132OVERFIT
RTX+654.8%+231131.9%-230477.1%antes de 1993279OVERFIT
RVTY+371.0%+25547.2%-25176.2%antes de 1993219OVERFIT
SBAC+1661.4%+2259.6%-598.3%+2.6 pts96OVERFIT
SCHW+641.8%+45501.9%-44860.1%antes de 1993167OVERFIT
SJM-47.6%+1119.0%-1166.5%-13.1 pts139OVERFIT
SLB+58.4%+1125.4%-1067.0%antes de 1993178OVERFIT
SMCI+249.9%+4155.7%-3905.8%-4.4 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+226.0%+12522.0%-12296.0%antes de 1993211OVERFIT
SO+659.0%+32617.4%-31958.3%antes de 1993166OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+138.5%+5330.6%-5192.1%-8.2 pts146OVERFIT
SPGI+530.5%+140503.3%-139972.8%antes de 1993243OVERFIT
SRE+28.2%+1463.0%-1434.8%-8.0 pts118OVERFIT
STE-5.8%+15491.4%-15497.2%antes de 1993163OVERFIT
STLD+34.1%+7831.8%-7797.7%-9.0 pts126OVERFIT
STT+2198.6%+199686.1%-197487.6%antes de 1993199MARGINAL
STZ+121.1%+10007.0%-9885.9%antes de 1993136OVERFIT
SW+103.7%+775.0%-671.2%-8.0 pts91INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+76.8%+5887.9%-5811.1%antes de 1993195OVERFIT
SWKS+1097.8%+1317.3%-219.5%antes de 1993142OVERFIT
SYF+47.9%+325.2%-277.3%-10.7 pts55INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+96.8%+430371.4%-430274.7%antes de 1993203OVERFIT
SYY+358.9%+115885.9%-115527.0%antes de 1993215OVERFIT
T+40.8%+10219.8%-10179.0%antes de 1993181OVERFIT
TAP-69.5%+518.8%-588.3%antes de 1993198OVERFIT
TDG+95.2%+13285.3%-13190.1%-7.7 pts96OVERFIT
TDY-23.5%+7164.6%-7188.1%-9.4 pts122OVERFIT
TECH+631.2%+79246.8%-78615.6%antes de 1993133OVERFIT
TEL+12.4%+671.1%-658.6%-10.2 pts82INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+217.2%+10226.4%-10009.2%antes de 1993191OVERFIT
TGT+3303.8%+90566.5%-87262.6%antes de 1993219MARGINAL
TJX+231.3%+36154.4%-35923.1%antes de 1993172OVERFIT
TKO+493.0%+1638.9%-1145.9%-1.9 pts102OVERFIT
TMO+1169.3%+36784.3%-35615.0%antes de 1993191OVERFIT
TPL+94627.2%+75277.1%+19350.1%antes de 1993152OVERFIT
TPR+846.0%+7766.6%-6920.6%+0.4 pts102OVERFIT
TRGP+1057.6%+2202.9%-1145.2%+2.5 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+1483.4%+3366.4%-1883.0%antes de 1993127MARGINAL
TROW+114.2%+35932.6%-35818.4%antes de 1993162OVERFIT
TSCO+1624.5%+15199.0%-13574.5%-1.8 pts113MARGINAL
TSN+360.2%+4340.8%-3980.6%antes de 1993170OVERFIT
TT+110.0%+49748.2%-49638.1%antes de 1993220OVERFIT
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+404.8%+4901.2%-4496.4%antes de 1993206OVERFIT
TYL+10554.7%+43359.1%-32804.3%antes de 1993145OVERFIT
UAL-75.3%+240.6%-316.0%-17.8 pts80OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+98.8%+14119.5%-14020.7%antes de 1993164OVERFIT
UHS+277.3%+15293.2%-15015.9%antes de 1993192OVERFIT
ULTA+41.3%+1721.3%-1680.0%-9.1 pts87INCONCLUSIVE
UNP-21.4%+30311.4%-30332.8%antes de 1993227OVERFIT
UPS-5.1%+233.2%-238.3%-8.7 pts104OVERFIT
URI+898.9%+7088.3%-6189.4%-1.0 pts116OVERFIT
USB+308.7%+44799.0%-44490.3%antes de 1993216OVERFIT
VEEV+92.9%+668.8%-575.9%-9.0 pts55INCONCLUSIVE
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+663.1%+23394.0%-22730.9%antes de 1993181OVERFIT
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+94.5%+48759.3%-48664.8%antes de 1993232OVERFIT
VRSK+23.5%+648.8%-625.2%-13.2 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+957.2%+5322.0%-4364.8%-0.7 pts110OVERFIT
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+193.9%+1496.8%-1302.9%-6.0 pts124OVERFIT
VTRS-29.1%+1568.8%-1597.9%antes de 1993160OVERFIT
VZ+140.9%+4889.1%-4748.2%antes de 1993169OVERFIT
WAB+198.7%+4137.7%-3939.0%-7.2 pts121OVERFIT
WAT+1215.5%+10865.4%-9649.9%-1.8 pts115OVERFIT
WEC+93.2%+23656.8%-23563.6%antes de 1993196OVERFIT
WELL+831.7%+58774.1%-57942.4%antes de 1993178OVERFIT
WFC+506.0%+63452.2%-62946.2%antes de 1993219OVERFIT
WM+317.0%+8471.2%-8154.3%antes de 1993160OVERFIT
WMB+712.6%+11974.1%-11261.5%antes de 1993192MARGINAL
WSM+899.8%+69865.8%-68966.0%antes de 1993189OVERFIT
WST+1077.7%+79208.6%-78130.9%antes de 1993202OVERFIT
WTW-23.2%+1181.6%-1204.8%-10.4 pts109OVERFIT
WY-62.7%+1781.4%-1844.0%antes de 1993216OVERFIT
WYNN+1565.3%+1217.6%+347.8%+1.1 pts74OVERFIT
XOM+610.0%+183657.9%-183047.9%antes de 1993255OVERFIT
XYL+71.3%+455.0%-383.7%-11.5 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+97.1%+527.5%-430.5%-8.2 pts43INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-27.6%+4282.5%-4310.1%-10.5 pts144OVERFIT
ZBH+57.0%+292.2%-235.2%-7.8 pts91OVERFIT
ZBRA+148.7%+8617.7%-8468.9%antes de 1993147OVERFIT
ZTS+21.1%+179.3%-158.2%-13.2 pts58INCONCLUSIVE

Divisas · 3 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD-2.0%-3.1%+1.1%-11.1 pts68OVERFIT
GBP/USD-34.6%-21.2%-13.4%-12.9 pts76OVERFIT
USD/JPY+89.5%+40.2%+49.3%-8.1 pts84OVERFIT
USD/MXN+5.5%+49.9%-44.5%-10.8 pts68OVERFIT
AUD/USD-33.8%-6.6%-27.2%-13.2 pts70OVERFIT
USD/CAD-8.7%+1.7%-10.4%-11.5 pts66OVERFIT
USD/CHF-28.0%-41.4%+13.4%-12.6 pts66OVERFIT
NZD/USD-30.4%-8.1%-22.3%-12.6 pts74OVERFIT

Cripto · 1 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 2 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin+9963.8%+17075.3%-7111.5%+16.7 pts59INCONCLUSIVE
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+3612.1%+859.3%+2752.8%+9.4 pts51INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.0%-1283.1%-637.8%+2752.8%
Solanano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Cardanono aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Dogecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EUR/USD-78.2%-55.0%-37.7%-20.1%+1.1%
GBP/USD-78.6%-45.2%-13.2%-8.8%-13.4%
USD/JPY-118.7%-42.3%-36.5%-24.9%+49.3%
AUD/USD-27.2%
USD/CAD-126.4%-97.9%-46.9%-25.7%-10.4%
USD/CHF-77.0%-60.1%-0.1%+12.7%+13.4%
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S&P 500 (SPY)-449.1%-405.5%-315.6%-235.6%-2979.5%
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Oro (GLD)-391.8%-336.6%-284.6%-214.3%-681.9%
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AAPL-1338.7%-1257.5%-1040.5%-703.9%-310860.6%
AMGN-377.8%-361.0%-203.1%-253.1%-184560.1%
AMZN-813.9%-669.4%-699.2%-674.3%-263942.2%
AXP-566.7%-529.5%-436.3%-460.7%-26582.7%
BA-154.9%-90.1%+101.6%+95.7%-104910.9%
CAT-1508.9%-1410.0%-1272.2%-1206.2%-170256.0%
CRM-335.6%-309.8%-221.0%-117.1%-5770.8%
CSCO-567.6%-553.7%-471.4%-425.5%-216126.6%
CVX-355.4%-323.7%-257.5%-176.5%-67892.4%
DIS-112.0%-97.0%-14.4%+57.6%-171964.8%
GOOGL-915.7%-859.1%-829.6%-720.3%-13376.0%
GS-717.7%-636.7%-433.0%-583.2%-1664.0%
HD-318.5%-283.3%-200.4%-140.2%-1982750.6%
HON-278.4%-248.0%-178.7%-160.3%-21059.6%
IBM-275.2%-190.4%-167.0%-188.6%-15937.1%
JNJ-355.8%-313.3%-254.8%-226.3%-444393.5%
JPM-739.9%-699.9%-542.8%-616.9%-33932.0%
KO-290.3%-262.9%-204.3%-172.6%-198459.9%
MCD-283.1%-255.6%-223.2%-117.5%-236105.1%
MMM-197.9%-144.1%-108.8%-86.0%-31180.0%
MRK-411.0%-379.8%-282.3%-330.4%-232739.0%
MSFT-1071.2%-1040.4%-996.8%-853.0%-852948.4%
NKE-71.0%-38.9%-21.0%+3.0%-30811.3%
NVDA-27554.5%-27191.9%-26937.6%-25795.3%-505517.3%
PG-244.3%-226.9%-198.0%-159.0%-59335.2%
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TRV-418.4%-380.1%-345.1%-305.2%-12335.0%
UNH-393.5%-347.5%-329.3%-297.5%-352215.5%
V-542.2%-518.1%-482.9%-411.6%-2826.6%
WMT-603.5%-557.1%-545.4%-468.4%-914059.7%
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AEP-303.1%-261.2%-229.7%-152.7%-13460.2%
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AMD-16771.6%-16207.1%-16309.7%-15658.3%-2421.5%
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ARMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
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AXON-3551.2%-3100.0%-3208.9%-3025.3%+24225.8%
BKNG-416.1%-375.1%-342.8%-351.4%+1222.4%
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CDNS-1652.5%-1576.2%-1402.8%-1512.2%-16815.5%
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CMCSA-134.8%-124.8%-112.2%-62.5%-46683.9%
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CSX-692.1%-677.1%-595.9%-540.9%-40367.8%
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DXCM-458.1%-361.7%-230.4%-205.1%-2102.0%
EAno aplica
EXC-316.5%-298.3%-261.4%-191.6%-16413.1%
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FERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-556.8%
FTNT-2743.5%-2659.1%-2525.9%-2315.0%-9190.3%
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GILD-211.9%-185.7%-164.9%-137.0%-33508.7%
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IDXX-777.1%-763.8%-662.3%-564.2%-58043.3%
INTC-329.9%-292.1%-107.8%-251.8%-49076.3%
INTU-404.2%-361.1%-293.2%-222.3%-15364.2%
ISRG-606.7%-565.2%-475.4%-441.2%-17972.2%
KHC-55.8%-42.8%-22.7%+23.9%+21.2%
KLAC-3058.9%-3009.1%-2983.9%-2890.1%-289098.3%
LINno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-10789.9%
LITE-3987.1%-3984.4%-3903.2%-3803.8%-4429.2%
LRCX-4473.9%-4416.7%-4353.3%-4206.0%-158234.9%
MAR-587.7%-515.8%-502.6%-487.3%-2546.4%
MCHP-385.1%-342.9%-215.8%-219.5%-41970.8%
MDLZ-179.8%-154.1%-100.6%-86.2%-502.1%
MELI-1793.2%-1659.6%-1661.5%-1451.0%-6818.8%
META-567.4%-517.0%-496.3%-353.0%-1034.9%
MNST-192.3%-175.0%-118.5%-83.8%-59514.2%
MPWR-2246.9%-2220.0%-2078.3%-2078.0%-14706.5%
MRVL-2676.0%-2604.1%-2573.9%-2377.9%-1376.2%
MSTR-724.8%-348.6%+186.8%-169.5%+2176.4%
MU-6663.2%-6500.2%-6294.6%-5726.7%-51710.0%
NFLX-739.3%-701.3%-552.4%-564.8%-53702.8%
NXPI-297.2%-287.9%-234.5%-269.2%-1445.1%
ODFL-1058.7%-973.9%-847.1%-938.7%-36295.1%
ORLY-537.0%-485.5%-430.6%-389.0%-54872.7%
PANW-1296.0%-1208.7%-1139.1%-1174.5%-4092.6%
PCAR-578.8%-525.8%-445.6%-482.6%-56123.6%
PDDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PEP-195.3%-177.8%-131.5%-107.9%-37724.7%
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PYPL-154.0%-134.5%-86.8%-29.0%-22.2%
QCOM-436.3%-414.0%-219.8%-287.8%-46978.8%
REGN-154.1%-114.2%-110.0%-47.7%-3681.6%
ROP-243.0%-217.3%-159.3%-78.8%-24808.3%
ROST-463.2%-443.9%-392.4%-373.6%-54594.5%
SBUX-229.7%-212.7%-199.5%-143.8%-42281.4%
SHOP-5917.6%-4843.3%-5653.2%-4747.4%-7890.7%
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SNPS-981.9%-901.3%-827.9%-812.2%-5471.4%
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TER-1850.7%-1759.8%-1604.2%-1655.9%-30216.1%
TMUS-488.6%-468.2%-413.2%-363.3%-301.5%
TRI-353.1%-326.9%-241.0%-194.8%-576.2%
TSLA-2207.2%-1604.9%-1559.9%-979.4%-21793.2%
TTWO-686.5%-670.2%-641.1%-513.5%-5503.1%
TXN-636.4%-615.3%-536.7%-544.7%-37371.8%
VRTX-439.6%-392.5%-386.2%-380.8%-11944.1%
WBDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-212.7%
WDAY-257.8%-229.8%-203.6%-229.6%-373.1%
WDC-1169.2%-1038.0%-1084.2%-987.6%-64667.0%
XEL-293.1%-266.5%-219.3%-179.6%-7325.5%
KDP-275.5%-251.2%-225.4%-174.7%-1028.4%
USD/MXN-124.4%-92.7%-80.8%-60.6%-44.5%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18083.3%-17801.6%-9302.3%-7111.5%
Etherno aplica

7 / 472 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 12 / 472

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
window 55101.5%-0.17-37.9%-2979.5%
window 20321.8%0.08-43.8%-2759.2%
window 40177.8%-0.05-35.3%-2903.2%
window 100112.9%-0.17-27.5%-2968.2%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Sharpe deflactado: 0.07 (< 0.95)

Suite de robustez: MODERATE

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (+19.1% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (+69.2% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0676 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto 0712690e8935 · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 12; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 25 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). Las Tortugas: ruptura de 55 días: funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto 0712690e8935. https://finaxion.app/research/ruptura-donchian-55

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