FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Estacional · Actualizado 2026-09-10

«Vende en mayo y vete»

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: divisas, en diario, en un activo suelto — bate en 91 de 486 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
91 / 486
Vs. índice
-4.3 pts/año
Rendimiento total
739.7%
Sharpe
0.55
Caída máxima
-36.8%
Operaciones
67
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de «Vende en mayo y vete»?

«Vende en mayo y vete» bate a comprar y mantener sobre todo en divisas: 6 de 8 mercados (75 %). De los 91 mercados diarios donde bate, 83 aguantan fuera de muestra (91 %), pero envejeció: en 112 mercados batía en la primera mitad del histórico y dejó de hacerlo en la segunda; lo contrario solo pasa en 51. Su mejor mercado diario es NVDA: +13,4 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 28 años, 55 operaciones, y su peor mercado diario es NCLH: -19,2 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

  1. «Vende en mayo y vete» bate a comprar y mantener sobre todo en divisas: 6 de 8 mercados (75 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en acciones sueltas: bate en 84 de 476.
  3. De los 91 mercados diarios donde bate, 83 aguantan fuera de muestra (91 %).
  4. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  5. Envejeció: en 112 mercados batía en la primera mitad del histórico y dejó de hacerlo en la segunda; lo contrario solo pasa en 51.
  6. Su mejor mercado diario es NVDA: +13,4 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 28 años, 55 operaciones.
  7. Su peor mercado diario es NCLH: -19,2 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto 0b534dd04389.

Lo que se promete

«La bolsa sube de noviembre a abril y se estanca de mayo a octubre. Vende en mayo, vuelve en noviembre y te ahorras las caídas.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Largo del primer día hábil de noviembre al último de abril; en efectivo de mayo a octubre. Reglas de calendario: se simulan con el motor estacional propio, mismos costos que el resto.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)+739.7%+3081.0%-2341.3%-4.3 pts67OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+269.3%+1565.8%-1296.5%-3.7 pts55OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+338.2%+801.9%-463.6%-2.9 pts52OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+390.0%+830.9%-440.9%-4.6 pts47INCONCLUSIVE
Oro (GLD)+440.4%+820.3%-379.9%-2.9 pts43INCONCLUSIVE
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+39.4%+131.2%-91.8%-9.9 pts48OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 0 / 0

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera)no aplica · calendar rule: no portfolio run

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 0 / 0

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera)no aplica · calendar rule: no portfolio run

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 0 / 0

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera)no aplica · calendar rule: no portfolio run

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 84 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 69 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL+20248.7%+322813.1%-302564.3%antes de 199391INCONCLUSIVE
AMGN+4103.2%+187272.6%-183169.4%antes de 199386OVERFIT
AMZN+6113.6%+265196.1%-259082.5%+5.5 pts58OVERFIT
AXP+8943.1%+27029.4%-18086.2%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
BA+35511.7%+108724.7%-73212.9%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
CAT+337882.3%+172708.3%+165174.0%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
CRM+333.5%+5992.9%-5659.5%-4.1 pts44OVERFIT
CSCO+4925.5%+222956.6%-218031.1%antes de 199373OVERFIT
CVX+13273.0%+68037.6%-54764.6%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
DIS+808884.4%+189847.3%+619037.2%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
GOOGL+220.7%+13534.3%-13313.6%-5.8 pts44OVERFIT
GS+427.4%+2027.1%-1599.8%-2.2 pts54OVERFIT
HD+147601.0%+1985758.9%-1838157.9%antes de 199390INCONCLUSIVE
HON+60976.1%+21058.8%+39917.3%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
IBM+12213.2%+16203.8%-3990.6%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
JNJ+14951.8%+445196.6%-430244.8%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
JPM+18315.9%+34522.5%-16206.6%antes de 199393OVERFIT
KO+10765.1%+199349.6%-188584.5%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
MCD+97507.9%+236707.0%-139199.0%antes de 1993120OVERFIT
MMM+4555.1%+31160.0%-26604.9%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
MRK+7691.2%+233375.1%-225683.9%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
MSFT+12121.1%+859506.0%-847384.9%antes de 199381OVERFIT
NKE+1439.0%+32003.7%-30564.7%antes de 199391OVERFIT
NVDA+24733.3%+587720.8%-562987.5%+13.4 pts55OVERFIT
PG+497.9%+59706.6%-59208.7%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
SHW+43461.7%+231766.6%-188304.9%antes de 199393OVERFIT
TRV+3739.0%+12287.7%-8548.8%antes de 1993101OVERFIT
UNH+18812.7%+353381.4%-334568.6%antes de 199384OVERFIT
V+1013.2%+2961.1%-1948.0%+1.8 pts37OVERFIT
WMT+11310.4%+915365.3%-904055.0%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+84740.2%+147731.1%-62990.9%antes de 199380INCONCLUSIVE
ADI+106855.7%+81534.0%+25321.6%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
ADP+1856.8%+74205.9%-72349.1%antes de 199393OVERFIT
ADSK+64462.6%+58084.6%+6378.1%antes de 199382INCONCLUSIVE
AEP+1192.4%+13797.6%-12605.2%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+87.2%+3338.4%-3251.2%-8.2 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
AMAT+997717.5%+664974.8%+332742.7%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
AMD+1273295.6%+14863.3%+1258432.3%antes de 199393ROBUST
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+21135.7%+96277.5%-75141.8%+7.5 pts63OVERFIT
AVGO+2454.9%+32512.1%-30057.2%+6.2 pts34OVERFIT
AXON+2957.0%+123065.2%-120108.3%+5.0 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
BKNG+8844.8%+922.2%+7922.5%+9.2 pts55INCONCLUSIVE
BKR+3940.3%+933.9%+3006.4%antes de 199379INCONCLUSIVE
CCEP+6626.4%+7081.8%-455.4%antes de 199379INCONCLUSIVE
CDNS+5609.3%+16839.0%-11229.7%antes de 199378OVERFIT
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+3821.9%+47049.9%-43228.0%antes de 199393OVERFIT
COST+1369.8%+12800.7%-11431.0%antes de 199380OVERFIT
CPRT+3966.9%+21554.9%-17588.1%+1.2 pts65OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+10119.8%+40426.1%-30306.3%antes de 199391OVERFIT
CTAS+3493.4%+123411.3%-119917.9%antes de 199386OVERFIT
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+1309.1%+3002.6%-1693.5%+1.9 pts43INCONCLUSIVE
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+1186.4%+17730.6%-16544.1%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
FANG+861.1%+1406.8%-545.6%+2.9 pts28INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+63674.7%+262350.7%-198675.9%antes de 199378OVERFIT
FER+238.2%+593.7%-355.4%-5.7 pts28OVERFIT
FTNT+1590.3%+10184.6%-8594.3%+4.2 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+919.5%+33594.8%-32675.2%antes de 199369OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · insufficient data
IDXX+2853.8%+58789.5%-55935.7%antes de 199370OVERFIT
INTC+21927.2%+49216.9%-27289.7%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
INTU-10.7%+15430.2%-15440.8%-11.1 pts67OVERFIT
ISRG+427.0%+18484.9%-18057.9%-1.9 pts52OVERFIT
KDP+397.5%+1090.2%-692.7%-2.6 pts36INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-15.1%-42.2%+27.1%-15.8 pts22ROBUST
KLAC+244133.8%+289399.1%-45265.4%antes de 199392INCONCLUSIVE
LIN+3863.5%+10777.0%-6913.5%antes de 199368OVERFIT
LITE+677.6%+5280.9%-4603.3%+6.1 pts22OVERFIT
LRCX+213694.1%+159814.6%+53879.5%antes de 199384INCONCLUSIVE
MAR+4264.1%+2539.5%+1724.6%+5.3 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
MCHP+1877.5%+41961.5%-40084.1%-1.5 pts67INCONCLUSIVE
MDLZ+259.6%+461.4%-201.8%-4.2 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
MELI+2726.1%+6911.0%-4184.9%+8.0 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
META+611.2%+1410.2%-799.1%-0.5 pts28OVERFIT
MNST+109605.6%+61968.9%+47636.7%antes de 199381INCONCLUSIVE
MPWR+2907.3%+15002.1%-12094.9%+5.9 pts43OVERFIT
MRVL+1306.1%+1645.0%-338.9%+2.2 pts52INCONCLUSIVE
MSTR-41.0%+1158.6%-1199.6%-10.9 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
MU+96943.3%+70877.8%+26065.6%antes de 199384INCONCLUSIVE
NFLX+7812.3%+67643.2%-59830.9%+9.4 pts48OVERFIT
NXPI+2298.8%+1721.2%+577.6%+7.2 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+5674.1%+36444.7%-30770.6%antes de 199370INCONCLUSIVE
ORLY+1752.7%+55255.7%-53503.0%-1.8 pts67OVERFIT
PANW+287.5%+4215.4%-3927.9%-4.9 pts28OVERFIT
PCAR+32684.5%+57106.4%-24421.9%antes de 199393OVERFIT
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+3241.4%+37760.7%-34519.3%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-23.9%+44.7%-68.6%-16.7 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+2084.3%+50430.1%-48345.8%antes de 199369INCONCLUSIVE
REGN+69.5%+3718.3%-3648.8%antes de 199371OVERFIT
ROP+2583.8%+26003.6%-23419.8%antes de 199369OVERFIT
ROST+17528.9%+55801.1%-38272.2%antes de 199382INCONCLUSIVE
SBUX+2556.8%+43019.5%-40462.7%antes de 199368OVERFIT
SHOP+460.5%+8568.8%-8108.3%+2.6 pts22OVERFIT
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+425.3%+5482.1%-5056.8%antes de 199369OVERFIT
STX+4889.3%+15614.6%-10725.3%+6.5 pts47INCONCLUSIVE
TER+158852.1%+31309.8%+127542.3%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
TMUS+516.4%+318.0%+198.4%-1.1 pts39OVERFIT
TRI+266.9%+578.4%-311.5%-5.1 pts48OVERFIT
TSLA+724.2%+23002.8%-22278.6%-1.2 pts32OVERFIT
TTWO+539.0%+5509.7%-4970.8%-3.5 pts59OVERFIT
TXN+51177.8%+38040.6%+13137.2%antes de 1993108INCONCLUSIVE
VRTX+90.0%+12000.4%-11910.5%antes de 199370OVERFIT
WBD+347.3%+302.2%+45.1%-3.8 pts42ROBUST
WDAY+14.4%+305.5%-291.1%-13.8 pts28OVERFIT
WDC+1449571.1%+66202.2%+1383368.9%antes de 199396INCONCLUSIVE
XEL+1010.4%+7388.9%-6378.5%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
A+736.6%+486.3%+250.3%-0.1 pts53INCONCLUSIVE
ABBV+367.0%+1156.0%-789.0%-2.9 pts27OVERFIT
ABT+2921.3%+62056.2%-59134.9%antes de 199393OVERFIT
ACGL+326.7%+4268.0%-3941.3%-5.8 pts62OVERFIT
ACN+200.2%+1726.5%-1526.3%-5.1 pts50OVERFIT
ADM+559.0%+9265.6%-8706.6%antes de 199393OVERFIT
AEE+161.5%+813.9%-652.4%-5.9 pts57OVERFIT
AES+1509.1%+647.5%+861.6%antes de 199370INCONCLUSIVE
AFL+10415.1%+205848.4%-195433.3%antes de 199393OVERFIT
AIG+259.5%+468.3%-208.8%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
AIZ+446.6%+1585.5%-1138.8%-3.0 pts45OVERFIT
AJG+979.9%+41899.5%-40919.6%antes de 199384OVERFIT
AKAM+156.2%-25.2%+181.4%-4.9 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
ALB+1266.0%+3091.3%-1825.4%-2.5 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
ALGN+3578.9%+846.9%+2732.0%+6.3 pts51INCONCLUSIVE
ALL+1158.8%+3674.2%-2515.4%-2.9 pts66INCONCLUSIVE
ALLE+83.6%+265.9%-182.3%-9.1 pts25INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR+59.0%+100.6%-41.6%-11.7 pts28INCONCLUSIVE
AME+16848.5%+25325.0%-8476.5%antes de 199384INCONCLUSIVE
AMP+622.4%+2154.1%-1531.7%-1.3 pts42OVERFIT
AMT+1525.3%+1310.2%+215.1%+1.2 pts57OVERFIT
ANET+467.3%+5592.8%-5125.5%+1.5 pts24OVERFIT
AON+3422.2%+29815.0%-26392.8%antes de 199392OVERFIT
AOS+32670.3%+13924.9%+18745.4%antes de 199386INCONCLUSIVE
APA+1003.2%+2417.2%-1414.0%antes de 199394INCONCLUSIVE
APD+11402.3%+20722.2%-9319.9%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
APH+8639.4%+146951.6%-138312.2%antes de 199369OVERFIT
APO+383.3%+1845.9%-1462.5%-3.2 pts31OVERFIT
APTV+83.4%+174.0%-90.5%-11.0 pts29OVERFIT
ARE+193.6%+624.3%-430.7%-5.9 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
ARES+181.6%+1191.9%-1010.2%-5.2 pts24OVERFIT
ATO+1548.8%+13696.4%-12147.5%antes de 199385OVERFIT
AVB+55.1%+42.3%+12.8%-10.7 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+14184.5%+8544.4%+5640.1%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
AWK+262.4%+950.9%-688.5%-4.6 pts37OVERFIT
AZO+5345.2%+40631.8%-35286.5%antes de 199371INCONCLUSIVE
BAC+12561.3%+4053.1%+8508.2%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
BALL+18101.6%+49568.6%-31467.0%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
BAX+2537.8%+1778.4%+759.4%antes de 199390INCONCLUSIVE
BBY+2101.6%+89506.6%-87405.0%antes de 199383INCONCLUSIVE
BDX+7285.8%+21440.4%-14154.6%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
BEN+11500.1%+130378.8%-118878.7%antes de 199386INCONCLUSIVE
BF-B+2536.1%+14873.5%-12337.4%antes de 199393OVERFIT
BG+618.1%+1105.5%-487.4%-1.4 pts50OVERFIT
BIIB-32.8%+6832.8%-6865.6%antes de 199370OVERFIT
BLDR+2451.6%+393.7%+2057.9%+5.4 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
BLK+1365.1%+13724.5%-12359.4%+1.7 pts54OVERFIT
BMY+945.8%+23662.6%-22716.8%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
BNY+6025.2%+32230.3%-26205.2%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
BR+233.9%+1234.2%-1000.4%-4.6 pts39OVERFIT
BRK-B+880.8%+2072.5%-1191.7%-2.6 pts60OVERFIT
BRO+9940.2%+76212.8%-66272.5%antes de 199391INCONCLUSIVE
BSX+1369.1%+1028.2%+340.9%antes de 199368INCONCLUSIVE
BX+358.3%+1023.3%-665.0%-2.6 pts38OVERFIT
BXP+523.3%+888.9%-365.6%-3.0 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
C+571.4%+1897.9%-1326.5%antes de 199399INCONCLUSIVE
CAH+4908.1%+39284.8%-34376.7%antes de 199386INCONCLUSIVE
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+1281.6%+80461.2%-79179.7%antes de 199386OVERFIT
CB+707.3%+6587.6%-5880.3%-4.3 pts67OVERFIT
CBOE+152.6%+1060.1%-907.5%-8.7 pts32OVERFIT
CBRE+2545.9%+2283.8%+262.1%+4.9 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
CCI+1674.9%+899.9%+775.0%+1.8 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
CCL+1083.1%+1154.4%-71.3%antes de 199378OVERFIT
CDW+116.8%+858.2%-741.4%-8.4 pts26OVERFIT
CF+832.4%+5815.9%-4983.5%+0.1 pts42OVERFIT
CFG+97.7%+349.9%-252.2%-7.9 pts24OVERFIT
CHD+11543.8%+93736.5%-82192.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
CHRW+791.7%+4307.6%-3516.0%-1.5 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
CHTR+126.6%+335.5%-208.9%-9.1 pts33OVERFIT
CI+10565.0%+12980.8%-2415.8%antes de 199389OVERFIT
CIEN+3953.8%+195.6%+3758.2%+3.5 pts59INCONCLUSIVE
CINF+3715.4%+41545.9%-37830.5%antes de 199393OVERFIT
CL+4330.5%+20919.0%-16588.5%antes de 1993106INCONCLUSIVE
CLX+3228.3%+6184.2%-2955.9%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
CME+599.0%+6884.2%-6285.2%-2.8 pts47OVERFIT
CMG+2296.6%+4221.6%-1925.0%+5.6 pts41OVERFIT
CMI+286138.6%+28968.2%+257170.4%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
CMS+771.0%+630.8%+140.2%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
CNC+1489.5%+4388.8%-2899.3%+1.8 pts49INCONCLUSIVE
CNP+897.5%+13998.0%-13100.5%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
COF+1320.3%+5724.6%-4404.2%-2.4 pts63OVERFIT
COHR+7080.4%+68288.9%-61208.5%antes de 199378OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+2766.1%+879.8%+1886.3%antes de 199387INCONCLUSIVE
COP+2749.9%+13561.7%-10811.8%antes de 199389OVERFIT
COR+2258.0%+17062.1%-14804.0%-0.4 pts63INCONCLUSIVE
CPAY+778.6%+1383.7%-605.0%+0.5 pts31INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+769.5%+2453.9%-1684.4%-4.2 pts66OVERFIT
CRH+27097.0%+7617.9%+19479.1%antes de 199374INCONCLUSIVE
CRL+38.4%+1210.2%-1171.8%-7.2 pts52INCONCLUSIVE
CSGP+1798.0%+3390.6%-1592.7%+2.2 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
CTSH+1015.1%+35498.3%-34483.2%-0.1 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+13894.5%+15658.6%-1764.1%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
D+826.4%+17762.4%-16936.1%antes de 199393OVERFIT
DAL+15.8%+339.1%-323.2%-10.0 pts38OVERFIT
DD+8106.6%+10113.6%-2007.0%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
DE+82181.8%+101089.1%-18907.3%antes de 1993108INCONCLUSIVE
DECK+1566.2%+7024.7%-5458.6%-1.9 pts66OVERFIT
DELL+269.0%+4059.8%-3790.8%-1.3 pts20OVERFIT
DG+537.8%+550.3%-12.4%-2.6 pts33OVERFIT
DGX+3867.1%+9626.0%-5758.9%+3.1 pts59INCONCLUSIVE
DHI+13545.0%+13111.0%+434.0%antes de 199368INCONCLUSIVE
DHR+214179.0%+483557.2%-269378.2%antes de 199395OVERFIT
DLR+1036.7%+3540.7%-2504.1%+0.6 pts44OVERFIT
DLTR+2321.0%+10731.5%-8410.4%-0.4 pts63OVERFIT
DOC+290.1%+6136.8%-5846.8%antes de 199382OVERFIT
DOV+13892.7%+29264.8%-15372.1%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+3110.2%+5638.6%-2528.3%+5.9 pts44OVERFIT
DRI+4078.2%+6998.7%-2920.5%+1.8 pts62OVERFIT
DTE+2279.2%+35264.3%-32985.1%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
DUK+848.6%+16239.0%-15390.4%antes de 199393OVERFIT
DVA+1187.7%+4219.3%-3031.6%-2.0 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
DVN+687.0%+1411.9%-724.9%antes de 199382INCONCLUSIVE
EBAY+5442.1%+14035.1%-8593.0%+6.2 pts56OVERFIT
ECHO+157.3%+227.3%-70.0%-6.2 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+2036.7%+20174.1%-18137.4%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
ED+3687.3%+45081.6%-41394.3%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
EFX+20005.9%+77234.4%-57228.5%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
EG+320.2%+2975.7%-2655.6%-5.8 pts62OVERFIT
EIX+365.5%+14610.5%-14245.0%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
EL+2952.1%+1551.3%+1400.8%+1.2 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
ELV+2257.1%+2326.9%-69.8%+3.3 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
EME+11125.2%+59203.5%-48078.2%+4.9 pts63OVERFIT
EMR+5958.8%+19839.1%-13880.3%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
EOG+3433.7%+9279.7%-5846.0%antes de 199374INCONCLUSIVE
EQIX+38.1%+240.5%-202.4%-7.2 pts52OVERFIT
EQR+86.7%+44.2%+42.5%-8.8 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+6392.4%+19557.1%-13164.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
ERIE+338.0%+3362.8%-3024.8%-5.7 pts62OVERFIT
ES+268.3%+2960.1%-2691.8%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
ESS+575.5%+5274.8%-4699.3%-5.0 pts64OVERFIT
ETN+90091.4%+116541.5%-26450.1%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
ETR+252.5%+19797.9%-19545.5%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
EVRG+1107.2%+5086.7%-3979.5%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
EW+3258.1%+6500.0%-3241.9%+6.0 pts53INCONCLUSIVE
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+5284.1%+148324.6%-143040.5%antes de 199384OVERFIT
EXPE+186.2%+916.1%-730.0%-6.0 pts42OVERFIT
EXR+607.4%+2698.9%-2091.6%-2.0 pts44OVERFIT
F+38691.4%+6752.4%+31939.0%antes de 1993108INCONCLUSIVE
FCX+2583.6%+1061.6%+1521.9%+0.5 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
FDS+838.8%+9088.9%-8250.2%-2.6 pts60OVERFIT
FDX+2272.7%+53776.9%-51504.2%antes de 199397OVERFIT
FDXFno aplica · insufficient data
FE+336.5%+563.0%-226.6%-4.2 pts57OVERFIT
FFIV-67.2%+5374.0%-5441.2%-12.5 pts54OVERFIT
FICO+8265.9%+94747.8%-86481.8%antes de 199378OVERFIT
FIS+483.8%+363.8%+120.1%-2.2 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
FITB+1395.2%+28280.0%-26884.9%antes de 199393OVERFIT
FIX+2024.3%+11966.2%-9941.9%+1.5 pts58OVERFIT
FLEX+1118.9%+7898.6%-6779.8%-2.9 pts65OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+9529.1%+24360.2%-14831.2%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
FSLR+203.4%+716.1%-512.7%-5.2 pts39INCONCLUSIVE
FTV+49.9%+100.1%-50.3%-11.4 pts20OVERFIT
GD+36073.7%+221689.9%-185616.2%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
GDDY+301.8%+389.4%-87.6%-1.1 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
GE+20978.2%+54356.2%-33378.0%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
GEN+2667.5%+12085.6%-9418.1%antes de 199374INCONCLUSIVE
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+541.1%+15015.5%-14474.4%antes de 199393OVERFIT
GL+2627.1%+12680.6%-10053.4%antes de 199392OVERFIT
GLW+45377.6%+19301.2%+26076.4%antes de 199389INCONCLUSIVE
GM-1.5%+240.1%-241.6%-14.6 pts31OVERFIT
GNRC+132.2%+2091.1%-1958.9%-9.4 pts33OVERFIT
GPC+3029.0%+12785.5%-9756.5%antes de 199393OVERFIT
GPN+473.4%+2567.9%-2094.5%-2.0 pts51INCONCLUSIVE
GRMN+487.8%+5377.3%-4889.6%-1.8 pts51OVERFIT
GWW+13259.3%+55300.2%-42040.9%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
HAL+4701.9%+2860.8%+1841.2%antes de 1993108INCONCLUSIVE
HAS+58973.5%+201529.8%-142556.3%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
HBAN+577.3%+3799.5%-3222.2%antes de 199393OVERFIT
HCA+573.5%+1699.7%-1126.2%-1.0 pts31OVERFIT
HIG+1591.5%+951.1%+640.5%-0.8 pts61OVERFIT
HII+894.4%+883.6%+10.8%+1.8 pts31OVERFIT
HLT+262.5%+659.1%-396.6%-3.4 pts25OVERFIT
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+134.2%+625.0%-490.9%-6.7 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+164589.2%+77945.5%+86643.7%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
HRL+4053.6%+19046.1%-14992.5%antes de 199393OVERFIT
HSIC+869.7%+1913.1%-1043.4%-2.9 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
HST+17789.0%+12843.9%+4945.2%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
HSY+2509.0%+53964.6%-51455.6%antes de 199393OVERFIT
HUBB+982.1%+3853.5%-2871.4%-3.3 pts64OVERFIT
HUM+1654.1%+20168.9%-18514.8%antes de 199389OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+290.7%+1526.1%-1235.4%-3.5 pts38OVERFIT
ICE+770.4%+2307.9%-1537.5%-0.2 pts41OVERFIT
IEX+7235.2%+12761.2%-5526.0%antes de 199374INCONCLUSIVE
IFF+4355.9%+4754.9%-399.1%antes de 1993103INCONCLUSIVE
INCY+869.7%+6471.7%-5602.1%-3.7 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP+5149.7%+4590.1%+559.6%antes de 1993129ROBUST
IQV+25.0%+520.3%-495.3%-12.6 pts26OVERFIT
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+631.2%+9911.6%-9280.4%-3.6 pts61INCONCLUSIVE
IT+686.7%+6431.0%-5744.3%-4.4 pts66OVERFIT
ITW+12539.3%+51254.1%-38714.8%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
IVZ+1037.3%+1093.8%-56.5%-2.5 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
J+9905.9%+33544.7%-23638.8%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
JBHT+31948.9%+24926.6%+7022.3%antes de 199385INCONCLUSIVE
JBL+437.1%+41217.7%-40780.6%-5.7 pts66OVERFIT
JCI+1714.6%+4376.5%-2661.9%antes de 199378OVERFIT
JKHY+14538.3%+71288.2%-56749.9%antes de 199381OVERFIT
KEY+1048.3%+1405.6%-357.2%antes de 199377INCONCLUSIVE
KEYS+218.0%+1042.3%-824.3%-4.1 pts24OVERFIT
KIM+600.9%+3036.5%-2435.6%antes de 199369OVERFIT
KKR+329.4%+1784.9%-1455.5%-5.4 pts32OVERFIT
KMB+2505.3%+16039.9%-13534.6%antes de 199393OVERFIT
KMI+107.2%+117.5%-10.3%-9.1 pts31INCONCLUSIVE
KR+49154.7%+182706.1%-133551.4%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+2730.5%+22398.8%-19668.4%antes de 199393OVERFIT
LDOS+111.2%+530.2%-419.0%-7.3 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
LEN+105034.9%+29032.9%+76001.9%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
LH+1521.0%+1408.2%+112.7%antes de 199373INCONCLUSIVE
LHX+6252.8%+8519.5%-2266.7%antes de 199389INCONCLUSIVE
LII+2396.5%+3122.4%-725.9%+4.1 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
LLY+8177.6%+129720.0%-121542.5%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
LMT+26038.6%+67444.7%-41406.0%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
LNT+1034.6%+9408.5%-8373.9%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
LOW+26027.5%+77328.4%-51300.9%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
LULU+359.6%+759.0%-399.4%-2.8 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+8058.8%+24508.5%-16449.7%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
LVS+103.0%+50.3%+52.7%-7.6 pts43INCONCLUSIVE
LYB+793.0%+648.8%+144.2%+0.3 pts33ROBUST
LYV+84.1%+1558.0%-1473.9%-8.1 pts41OVERFIT
MA+1920.1%+14066.9%-12146.9%+4.7 pts40OVERFIT
MAA+876.3%+3525.2%-2648.9%-3.6 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
MAS+8595.8%+7423.1%+1172.7%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
MCK+1071.6%+6946.5%-5874.9%-3.1 pts63OVERFIT
MCO+2487.1%+7753.9%-5266.8%-0.3 pts64OVERFIT
MDT+1229.7%+51421.0%-50191.3%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
MET+498.2%+1176.9%-678.7%-1.3 pts53OVERFIT
MGM+2192.4%+1501.4%+691.0%antes de 199376INCONCLUSIVE
MKC+3531.9%+14401.8%-10869.9%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
MLM+5602.2%+3089.6%+2512.7%+2.3 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
MO+28408.0%+2914781.4%-2886373.4%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
MOS+1512.1%+268.9%+1243.2%antes de 199377INCONCLUSIVE
MPC+416.3%+2972.8%-2556.5%-3.1 pts30OVERFIT
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+1466.9%+21192.9%-19726.0%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
MS+2452.0%+6159.1%-3707.1%-0.7 pts67OVERFIT
MSCI+884.1%+2406.7%-1522.6%+1.7 pts37OVERFIT
MSI+9919.7%+79243.2%-69323.5%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
MTB+11861.6%+105049.8%-93188.2%antes de 199393OVERFIT
MTD+1434.5%+9346.3%-7911.8%+0.5 pts57OVERFIT
NCLH-46.3%-34.9%-11.4%-19.2 pts27OVERFIT
NDAQ+253.6%+2371.2%-2117.6%-5.5 pts48OVERFIT
NDSN+4744.8%+37769.3%-33024.5%antes de 199393OVERFIT
NEE+558.3%+23772.9%-23214.5%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
NEM+3390.6%+2099.8%+1290.8%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
NI+1009.9%+5234.9%-4225.0%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
NOC+2957.0%+23369.3%-20412.2%antes de 199389OVERFIT
NOW+53.4%+2907.9%-2854.5%-11.9 pts28OVERFIT
NRG+681.3%+1442.6%-761.2%-1.6 pts45OVERFIT
NSC+2476.0%+24520.7%-22044.7%antes de 199388OVERFIT
NTAP+812.1%+19659.8%-18847.6%-3.1 pts61OVERFIT
NTRS+8566.5%+53074.8%-44508.3%antes de 199393OVERFIT
NUE+66043.5%+70209.1%-4165.5%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
NVR+19524.8%+61512.0%-41987.2%+6.5 pts66INCONCLUSIVE
NWS+46.0%+152.4%-106.4%-11.5 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+42.3%+122.2%-79.9%-11.7 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
O+1177.3%+5366.4%-4189.1%-2.8 pts64OVERFIT
OKE+833.3%+19101.6%-18268.3%antes de 199392OVERFIT
OMC+13673.7%+15677.5%-2003.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
ON+3920.3%+208.7%+3711.6%+6.6 pts52ROBUST
ORCL+3296.7%+296729.4%-293432.7%antes de 199381OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+3935.9%+3580.0%+355.9%antes de 199389INCONCLUSIVE
PCG+290.2%+1389.7%-1099.5%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
PEG+3209.1%+18884.4%-15675.2%antes de 199393OVERFIT
PFE+1443.7%+20062.7%-18619.0%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
PFG+353.2%+920.1%-566.9%-3.9 pts50OVERFIT
PGR+11563.8%+819581.9%-808018.2%antes de 199393OVERFIT
PH+45847.0%+41129.4%+4717.6%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
PHM+32427.7%+95847.7%-63420.0%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
PLD+837.2%+1782.5%-945.3%-1.2 pts57OVERFIT
PM+319.2%+785.7%-466.5%-4.1 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+14588.5%+37937.9%-23349.4%antes de 1993101INCONCLUSIVE
PNR+26345.0%+11510.8%+14834.2%antes de 1993106INCONCLUSIVE
PNW+610.9%+2247.6%-1636.7%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
PODD+163.0%+831.5%-668.4%-5.7 pts38OVERFIT
PPG+8685.1%+21327.4%-12642.4%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
PPL+387.4%+7311.8%-6924.5%antes de 199393OVERFIT
PRU+407.8%+767.8%-360.0%-3.3 pts49OVERFIT
PSA+3222.2%+13958.7%-10736.5%antes de 199391OVERFIT
PSKY+85.3%-34.8%+120.1%-8.1 pts41INCONCLUSIVE
PSX+252.0%+1071.7%-819.6%-5.4 pts29OVERFIT
PTC+512.3%+8443.5%-7931.2%antes de 199373OVERFIT
PWR+6660.2%+8155.1%-1494.9%+6.7 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+559.0%+4611.6%-4052.6%-5.1 pts67INCONCLUSIVE
REG+1028.0%+2046.5%-1018.5%-3.2 pts66INCONCLUSIVE
RF+3165.4%+7230.0%-4064.5%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
RJF+7685.8%+52691.1%-45005.3%antes de 199386OVERFIT
RL+1517.6%+1376.9%+140.6%+0.5 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
RMD+1935.2%+43254.4%-41319.2%-0.7 pts62OVERFIT
ROK+26085.3%+57325.7%-31240.4%antes de 199389INCONCLUSIVE
ROL+4665.1%+36503.9%-31838.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
RSG+1319.1%+1977.7%-658.5%+1.0 pts56OVERFIT
RTX+159177.2%+231131.9%-71954.7%antes de 1993129INCONCLUSIVE
RVTY+1907.6%+25547.2%-23639.6%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
SBAC+3130.9%+2259.6%+871.2%+5.1 pts54OVERFIT
SCHW+6565.9%+45501.9%-38936.0%antes de 199378OVERFIT
SJM+272.4%+1119.0%-846.6%-6.8 pts64INCONCLUSIVE
SLB+2306.9%+1125.4%+1181.5%antes de 199389INCONCLUSIVE
SMCI+3287.2%+4155.7%-868.5%+8.8 pts39ROBUST
SNA+16412.7%+12522.0%+3890.7%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
SO+1083.2%+32617.4%-31534.2%antes de 199389OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+1123.3%+5330.6%-4207.2%-2.9 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
SPGI+12529.4%+140503.3%-127973.9%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
SRE+570.1%+1463.0%-892.9%-1.9 pts56OVERFIT
STE+209.2%+15491.4%-15282.2%antes de 199368OVERFIT
STLD+11542.4%+7831.8%+3710.5%+7.3 pts59OVERFIT
STT+12226.5%+199686.1%-187459.6%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
STZ+1275.0%+10007.0%-8732.0%antes de 199369OVERFIT
SW+631.1%+775.0%-143.9%-0.5 pts36INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+6026.3%+5887.9%+138.3%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
SWKS+522.5%+1317.3%-794.8%antes de 199384INCONCLUSIVE
SYF+42.0%+325.2%-283.2%-11.0 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+58581.6%+430371.4%-371789.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
SYY+5853.1%+115885.9%-110032.9%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
T+770.1%+10219.8%-9449.7%antes de 199385OVERFIT
TAP+313.0%+518.8%-205.8%antes de 1993102INCONCLUSIVE
TDG+1455.4%+13285.3%-11829.9%+3.3 pts41OVERFIT
TDY+792.5%+7164.6%-6372.1%+0.1 pts53OVERFIT
TECH+614.2%+79246.8%-78632.6%antes de 199375OVERFIT
TEL+367.6%+671.1%-303.5%-2.4 pts38OVERFIT
TFC+1437.8%+10226.4%-8788.6%antes de 199393OVERFIT
TGT+15621.9%+90566.5%-74944.5%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
TJX+6456.2%+36154.4%-29698.2%antes de 199378OVERFIT
TKO+1140.3%+1638.9%-498.5%+1.0 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
TMO+7412.2%+36784.3%-29372.0%antes de 199393OVERFIT
TPL+11493.3%+75277.1%-63783.8%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
TPR+9162.1%+7766.6%+1395.5%+10.4 pts52INCONCLUSIVE
TRGP+695.7%+2202.9%-1507.2%-0.3 pts31OVERFIT
TRMB+7009.4%+3366.4%+3643.1%antes de 199372INCONCLUSIVE
TROW+5635.7%+35932.6%-30296.9%antes de 199381OVERFIT
TSCO+4406.1%+15199.0%-10792.9%+1.5 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
TSN+6805.0%+4340.8%+2464.2%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
TT+58374.8%+49748.2%+8626.6%antes de 199393OVERFIT
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+5458.3%+4901.2%+557.0%antes de 1993107INCONCLUSIVE
TYL+3144.2%+43359.1%-40214.8%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
UAL-40.9%+240.6%-281.5%-13.7 pts41OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+3099.3%+14119.5%-11020.2%antes de 199393OVERFIT
UHS+74342.3%+15293.2%+59049.1%antes de 199390INCONCLUSIVE
ULTA+511.0%+1721.3%-1210.3%-0.9 pts38OVERFIT
UNP+4082.6%+30311.4%-26228.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
UPS+91.8%+233.2%-141.4%-6.0 pts53INCONCLUSIVE
URI+11117.9%+7088.3%+4029.6%+8.5 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
USB+5066.1%+44799.0%-39732.9%antes de 1993106OVERFIT
VEEV-39.9%+668.8%-708.7%-18.1 pts26OVERFIT
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+73198.4%+23394.0%+49804.4%antes de 199389INCONCLUSIVE
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+20109.6%+48759.3%-28649.7%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
VRSK+220.7%+648.8%-428.1%-7.3 pts34OVERFIT
VRSN+1301.4%+5322.0%-4020.7%+0.4 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+213.5%+1496.8%-1283.3%-5.8 pts58OVERFIT
VTRS+1122.3%+1568.8%-446.4%antes de 199393INCONCLUSIVE
VZ+494.4%+4889.1%-4394.8%antes de 199385OVERFIT
WAB+3708.5%+4137.7%-429.3%+1.6 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
WAT+1446.1%+10865.4%-9419.3%-1.2 pts61OVERFIT
WEC+1618.0%+23656.8%-22038.8%antes de 199393OVERFIT
WELL+5488.6%+58774.1%-53285.5%antes de 199393OVERFIT
WFC+4900.2%+63452.2%-58552.0%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
WM+2019.9%+8471.2%-6451.3%antes de 199376OVERFIT
WMB+10178.2%+11974.1%-1795.9%antes de 199389OVERFIT
WSM+9581.5%+69865.8%-60284.3%antes de 199386INCONCLUSIVE
WST+10276.5%+79208.6%-68932.1%antes de 199393OVERFIT
WTW+347.8%+1181.6%-833.8%-3.2 pts50OVERFIT
WY+27053.2%+1781.4%+25271.8%antes de 1993106ROBUST
WYNN+2664.6%+1217.6%+1447.1%+3.5 pts48INCONCLUSIVE
XOM+15913.6%+183657.9%-167744.3%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
XYL+91.1%+455.0%-364.0%-10.8 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+107.1%+527.5%-420.5%-7.7 pts21INCONCLUSIVE
YUM+3399.2%+4282.5%-883.3%+3.7 pts58OVERFIT
ZBH+663.8%+292.2%+371.6%-1.2 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
ZBRA+596.6%+8617.7%-8021.0%antes de 199370OVERFIT
ZTS+79.5%+179.3%-99.8%-10.2 pts27OVERFIT

Divisas · 6 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD+17.3%-3.1%+20.4%-10.3 pts45INCONCLUSIVE
GBP/USD+17.0%-21.2%+38.2%-10.3 pts45INCONCLUSIVE
USD/JPY+103.4%+40.2%+63.2%-7.8 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
USD/MXN-16.8%+49.9%-66.8%-11.8 pts45OVERFIT
AUD/USD+35.8%-6.6%+42.4%-9.7 pts40ROBUST
USD/CAD-1.1%+1.7%-2.7%-11.2 pts46OVERFIT
USD/CHF-34.9%-41.4%+6.5%-13.0 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
NZD/USD+26.1%-8.1%+34.2%-10.0 pts45INCONCLUSIVE

Cripto · 1 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 2 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin+1165.7%+17075.3%-15909.6%+9.9 pts24OVERFIT
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+1306.0%+859.3%+446.7%+11.0 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+446.7%
Solanano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Cardanono aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Dogecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EUR/USDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+20.4%
GBP/USDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+38.2%
USD/JPYno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+63.2%
AUD/USDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+42.4%
USD/CADno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-2.7%
USD/CHFno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+6.5%
NZD/USDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+34.2%
S&P 500 (SPY)no aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-2341.3%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)no aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1296.5%
Russell 2000 (IWM)no aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-463.6%
Emergentes (EEM)no aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-440.9%
Oro (GLD)no aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-379.9%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)no aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-91.8%
AAPLno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-302564.3%
AMGNno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-183169.4%
AMZNno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-259082.5%
AXPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-18086.2%
BAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-73212.9%
CATno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+165174.0%
CRMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-5659.5%
CSCOno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-218031.1%
CVXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-54764.6%
DISno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+619037.2%
GOOGLno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-13313.6%
GSno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1599.8%
HDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1838157.9%
HONno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+39917.3%
IBMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-3990.6%
JNJno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-430244.8%
JPMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-16206.6%
KOno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-188584.5%
MCDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-139199.0%
MMMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-26604.9%
MRKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-225683.9%
MSFTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-847384.9%
NKEno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-30564.7%
NVDAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-562987.5%
PGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-59208.7%
SHWno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-188304.9%
TRVno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-8548.8%
UNHno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-334568.6%
Vno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1948.0%
WMTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-904055.0%
ABNBno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ADBEno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-62990.9%
ADIno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+25321.6%
ADPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-72349.1%
ADSKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+6378.1%
AEPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-12605.2%
ALABno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ALNYno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-3251.2%
AMATno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+332742.7%
AMDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+1258432.3%
APPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ARMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ASMLno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-75141.8%
AVGOno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-30057.2%
AXONno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-120108.3%
BKNGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+7922.5%
BKRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+3006.4%
CCEPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-455.4%
CDNSno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-11229.7%
CEGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CMCSAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-43228.0%
COSTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-11431.0%
CPRTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-17588.1%
CRWDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CSXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-30306.3%
CTASno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-119917.9%
DASHno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DDOGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DXCMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1693.5%
EAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EXCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-16544.1%
FANGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-545.6%
FASTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-198675.9%
FERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-355.4%
FTNTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-8594.3%
GEHCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
GILDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-32675.2%
HONAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
IDXXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-55935.7%
INTCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-27289.7%
INTUno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-15440.8%
ISRGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-18057.9%
KHCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+27.1%
KLACno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-45265.4%
LINno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-6913.5%
LITEno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-4603.3%
LRCXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+53879.5%
MARno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+1724.6%
MCHPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-40084.1%
MDLZno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-201.8%
MELIno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-4184.9%
METAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-799.1%
MNSTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+47636.7%
MPWRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-12094.9%
MRVLno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-338.9%
MSTRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-1199.6%
MUno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+26065.6%
NFLXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-59830.9%
NXPIno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+577.6%
ODFLno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-30770.6%
ORLYno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-53503.0%
PANWno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-3927.9%
PCARno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-24421.9%
PDDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PEPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-34519.3%
PLTRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PYPLno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-68.6%
QCOMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-48345.8%
REGNno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-3648.8%
ROPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-23419.8%
ROSTno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-38272.2%
SBUXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-40462.7%
SHOPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-8108.3%
SNDKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
SNPSno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-5056.8%
STXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-10725.3%
TERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+127542.3%
TMUSno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+198.4%
TRIno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-311.5%
TSLAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-22278.6%
TTWOno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-4970.8%
TXNno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+13137.2%
VRTXno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-11910.5%
WBDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+45.1%
WDAYno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-291.1%
WDCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica+1383368.9%
XELno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-6378.5%
KDPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-692.7%
USD/MXNno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-66.8%
Bitcoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-15909.6%
Etherno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
in_months [11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4]739.7%0.55-36.8%-2341.3%
in_months [10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4]×140.60-47.3%-1787.0%
in_months [11, 12, 1, 2, 3]342.9%0.43-40.6%-2738.1%
in_months [12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5]469.4%0.47-33.7%-2611.6%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 21%

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (+135.9% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (+255.9% vs +843.1%).

Beat buy-and-hold in 7 of 33 calendar years (21%).

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto 0b534dd04389 · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 12; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 41 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). «Vende en mayo y vete»: funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto 0b534dd04389. https://finaxion.app/research/sell-in-may

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