FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Seguimiento de tendencia · Actualizado 2026-09-10

Supertrend: la línea que cambia de color

Funciona en pocos mercados

Su terreno: divisas, en 1 hora, comprando varios activos en señal — bate en 55 de 961 combinaciones.

Mercados que bate
35 / 489
Vs. índice
-4.9 pts/año
Rendimiento total
590.9%
Sharpe
0.25
Caída máxima
-18.0%
Operaciones
27
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
EstrategiaComprar y mantener

Detalle sobre el índice (S&P 500), que es la referencia de la gráfica, la robustez y los vecinos.

¿Qué funciona y qué no de Supertrend: la línea que cambia de color?

Supertrend: la línea que cambia de color bate a comprar y mantener sobre todo en divisas: 14 de 40 mercados (35 %). Donde peor va es en acciones sueltas: bate en 38 de 904. Funciona como cartera, no como acción suelta: como cesta bate en 2 de 3, activo por activo en 53 de 958.

  1. Supertrend: la línea que cambia de color bate a comprar y mantener sobre todo en divisas: 14 de 40 mercados (35 %).
  2. Donde peor va es en acciones sueltas: bate en 38 de 904.
  3. Funciona como cartera, no como acción suelta: como cesta bate en 2 de 3, activo por activo en 53 de 958.
  4. De los 35 mercados diarios donde bate, 21 aguantan fuera de muestra (60 %).
  5. Ningún parámetro vecino bate al índice: el ajuste publicado es un punto, no una zona.
  6. Su mejor mercado diario es AXON: +27,7 puntos al año sobre el S&P 500 en 25 años, 43 operaciones.
  7. Su peor mercado diario es NCLH: -22,4 puntos al año frente al S&P 500.

Hallazgos derivados del panel completo. Cada uno lleva su número y su denominador; los cálculos son reproducibles con el artefacto e097c9613211.

Lo que se promete

«Cuando la línea se pone verde, compra; cuando se pone roja, vende. El indicador favorito de TikTok.»

Lo que probamos exactamente

Entrada cuando el cierre supera la banda superior (ATR 10, multiplicador 3); salida cuando el cierre cae por debajo de la banda inferior. Es la definición clásica del Supertrend.

Por qué

En cada mercado

Índices y ETFs · 0 / 6 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 6

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (SPY)+590.9%+3081.0%-2490.1%-4.9 pts27OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+4.6%+1565.8%-1561.2%-8.4 pts37OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+417.1%+801.9%-384.7%-2.2 pts21OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+106.3%+830.9%-724.7%-8.5 pts71OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+558.0%+820.3%-262.2%-1.9 pts49OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+62.4%+131.2%-68.8%-9.2 pts54OVERFIT

Cartera con balance: Dow 30 (máx. 10 posiciones) · 0 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · máx. 10)+2073.3%+3081.0%-1007.7%-1.2 pts187

Cartera con balance: Nasdaq-100 (máx. 20 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · máx. 20)+59200.8%+3081.0%+56119.7%+10.1 pts518

Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) · 1 / 1 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 1

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · máx. 25)+15786.6%+3081.0%+12705.6%+5.5 pts2125

Acciones, una a una (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 26 / 470 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 54 / 216

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
AAPL+105324.0%+322813.1%-217489.0%antes de 199386MARGINAL
AMGN+16902.7%+187272.6%-170369.9%antes de 199373OVERFIT
AMZN+153715.4%+265196.1%-111480.7%+18.8 pts53GENERALIZED
AXP+22.0%+27029.4%-27007.3%antes de 1993134OVERFIT
BA+3830.6%+108724.7%-104894.1%antes de 1993132OVERFIT
CAT+20230.9%+172708.3%-152477.3%antes de 1993155MARGINAL
CRM+749.1%+5992.9%-5243.8%-0.8 pts41OVERFIT
CSCO+37341.3%+222956.6%-185615.3%antes de 199341MARGINAL
CVX+440.8%+68037.6%-67596.9%antes de 1993109OVERFIT
DIS+71390.1%+189847.3%-118457.2%antes de 1993139OVERFIT
GOOGL+1495.7%+13534.3%-12038.6%+2.2 pts51OVERFIT
GS+283.9%+2027.1%-1743.2%-3.4 pts49OVERFIT
HD+1757.0%+1985758.9%-1984001.9%antes de 1993105OVERFIT
HON+51.0%+21058.8%-21007.8%antes de 1993115OVERFIT
IBM+495.4%+16203.8%-15708.4%antes de 1993140OVERFIT
JNJ+6660.5%+445196.6%-438536.1%antes de 1993145OVERFIT
JPM+192.3%+34522.5%-34330.1%antes de 1993103OVERFIT
KO+11770.0%+199349.6%-187579.6%antes de 1993127MARGINAL
MCD+20634.1%+236707.0%-216072.9%antes de 199392MARGINAL
MMM+2427.5%+31160.0%-28732.5%antes de 1993111OVERFIT
MRK+8765.1%+233375.1%-224610.0%antes de 1993111MARGINAL
MSFT+5864.7%+859506.0%-853641.2%antes de 199359OVERFIT
NKE+2941.2%+32003.7%-29062.5%antes de 199390OVERFIT
NVDA+57955.1%+587720.8%-529765.7%+17.2 pts41OVERFIT
PG+1168.2%+59706.6%-58538.5%antes de 1993110OVERFIT
SHW+3453.2%+231766.6%-228313.3%antes de 199370MARGINAL
TRV+354.8%+12287.7%-11932.9%antes de 1993133OVERFIT
UNH+13049.0%+353381.4%-340332.4%antes de 199379MARGINAL
V+230.5%+2961.1%-2730.7%-5.4 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+31049.0%+915365.3%-884316.4%antes de 1993118MARGINAL
ABNBno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+1755.8%+147731.1%-145975.3%antes de 199374MARGINAL
ADI+1123.3%+81534.0%-80410.7%antes de 199399OVERFIT
ADP+2148.4%+74205.9%-72057.5%antes de 199371MARGINAL
ADSK+766.2%+58084.6%-57318.3%antes de 199385OVERFIT
AEP+1243.2%+13797.6%-12554.5%antes de 199383OVERFIT
ALABno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+127.6%+3338.4%-3210.8%-7.2 pts34OVERFIT
AMAT+15612.3%+664974.8%-649362.5%antes de 1993105OVERFIT
AMD+3809.0%+14863.3%-11054.3%antes de 199391OVERFIT
APPno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMno aplica · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+15813.1%+96277.5%-80464.3%+6.5 pts77MARGINAL
AVGO+3122.8%+32512.1%-29389.3%+7.9 pts34INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+287310.6%+123065.2%+164245.4%+27.7 pts43OVERFIT
BKNG+4283.9%+922.2%+3361.7%+6.2 pts46OVERFIT
BKR-11.1%+933.9%-944.9%antes de 199359OVERFIT
CCEP+270.0%+7081.8%-6811.9%antes de 199363OVERFIT
CDNS+1322.2%+16839.0%-15516.8%antes de 199374MARGINAL
CEGno aplica · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+490.9%+47049.9%-46559.0%antes de 199375OVERFIT
COST+829.3%+12800.7%-11971.4%antes de 199370OVERFIT
CPRT+4623.1%+21554.9%-16931.9%+1.7 pts49OVERFIT
CRWDno aplica · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+1220.9%+40426.1%-39205.2%antes de 199377MARGINAL
CTAS+3170.5%+123411.3%-120240.8%antes de 199369MARGINAL
DASHno aplica · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGno aplica · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+453.2%+3002.6%-2549.3%-2.9 pts49OVERFIT
EAno aplica · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+1434.8%+17730.6%-16295.8%antes de 199366OVERFIT
FANG+237.9%+1406.8%-1168.9%-5.6 pts16INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+991.8%+262350.7%-261358.8%antes de 199363MARGINAL
FER-4.6%+593.7%-598.3%-15.1 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+2247.6%+10184.6%-7937.0%+6.5 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCno aplica · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+7518.8%+33594.8%-26076.0%antes de 199333OVERFIT
HONAno aplica · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+5077.1%+58789.5%-53712.4%antes de 199349MARGINAL
INTC+4822.6%+49216.9%-44394.3%antes de 199383MARGINAL
INTU+476.3%+15430.2%-14953.9%-5.4 pts50OVERFIT
ISRG+3894.0%+18484.9%-14590.9%+6.7 pts43MARGINAL
KDP+411.4%+1090.2%-678.9%-2.4 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-37.2%-42.2%+5.0%-18.4 pts17INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+1825.3%+289399.1%-287573.8%antes de 199392MARGINAL
LIN+660.4%+10777.0%-10116.6%antes de 199334OVERFIT
LITE+1824.6%+5280.9%-3456.4%+16.4 pts19INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+1724.8%+159814.6%-158089.8%antes de 199365OVERFIT
MAR+840.5%+2539.5%-1699.0%-0.7 pts45OVERFIT
MCHP+154.2%+41961.5%-41807.3%-8.0 pts43OVERFIT
MDLZ+125.7%+461.4%-335.7%-6.1 pts35OVERFIT
MELI+558.2%+6911.0%-6352.8%-0.8 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
META+657.9%+1410.2%-752.4%+0.0 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+11860.0%+61968.9%-50108.9%antes de 199350OVERFIT
MPWR+241.8%+15002.1%-14760.3%-5.2 pts29MARGINAL
MRVL+1013.9%+1645.0%-631.2%+1.2 pts37OVERFIT
MSTR+1892.6%+1158.6%+734.0%+2.2 pts53OVERFIT
MU+107826.3%+70877.8%+36948.5%antes de 199371OVERFIT
NFLX+54867.4%+67643.2%-12775.8%+19.4 pts50MARGINAL
NXPI-5.0%+1721.2%-1726.2%-15.0 pts27INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+148.0%+36444.7%-36296.7%antes de 199363OVERFIT
ORLY+706.0%+55255.7%-54549.7%-4.5 pts53OVERFIT
PANW+1155.1%+4215.4%-3060.3%+4.7 pts19INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+15692.6%+57106.4%-41413.8%antes de 199389OVERFIT
PDDno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+2127.0%+37760.7%-35633.7%antes de 199399MARGINAL
PLTRno aplica · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL+206.1%+44.7%+161.4%-3.8 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+2360.1%+50430.1%-48070.0%antes de 199363OVERFIT
REGN+276.2%+3718.3%-3442.1%antes de 199357MARGINAL
ROP+3661.3%+26003.6%-22342.3%antes de 199342GENERALIZED
ROST+7441.8%+55801.1%-48359.4%antes de 199360MARGINAL
SBUX+15064.3%+43019.5%-27955.2%antes de 199347GENERALIZED
SHOP+699.6%+8568.8%-7869.2%+6.4 pts17INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKno aplica · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-68.6%+5482.1%-5550.7%antes de 199363OVERFIT
STX+19240.1%+15614.6%+3625.5%+13.5 pts43MARGINAL
TER+497.6%+31309.8%-30812.2%antes de 1993150OVERFIT
TMUS+48.0%+318.0%-269.9%-8.8 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+131.8%+578.4%-446.6%-7.1 pts34OVERFIT
TSLA+1295.5%+23002.8%-21707.2%+2.6 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO-2.9%+5509.7%-5512.6%-10.2 pts39OVERFIT
TXN+511.9%+38040.6%-37528.8%antes de 1993105OVERFIT
VRTX+653.4%+12000.4%-11347.0%antes de 199357MARGINAL
WBD+77.8%+302.2%-224.3%-8.4 pts29OVERFIT
WDAY+95.0%+305.5%-210.6%-9.9 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+10468.6%+66202.2%-55733.6%antes de 1993103MARGINAL
XEL+487.5%+7388.9%-6901.4%antes de 199382OVERFIT
A-46.0%+486.3%-532.3%-10.7 pts53OVERFIT
ABBV+167.8%+1156.0%-988.2%-7.3 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+675.5%+62056.2%-61380.7%antes de 199376OVERFIT
ACGL+506.0%+4268.0%-3762.0%-4.5 pts47OVERFIT
ACN+393.5%+1726.5%-1333.0%-3.0 pts37OVERFIT
ADM+841.0%+9265.6%-8424.6%antes de 199371OVERFIT
AEE+262.2%+813.9%-551.8%-4.7 pts33OVERFIT
AES+236.6%+647.5%-410.9%antes de 199355OVERFIT
AFL+1106.2%+205848.4%-204742.2%antes de 199383MARGINAL
AIG+330.3%+468.3%-138.0%antes de 1993194OVERFIT
AIZ+10.6%+1585.5%-1574.9%-10.4 pts35OVERFIT
AJG+2884.0%+41899.5%-39015.6%antes de 1993119GENERALIZED
AKAM+1609.4%-25.2%+1634.6%+2.7 pts45OVERFIT
ALB+161.0%+3091.3%-2930.4%-7.9 pts54MARGINAL
ALGN+1828.2%+846.9%+981.3%+3.4 pts41MARGINAL
ALL+417.1%+3674.2%-3257.1%-5.8 pts45OVERFIT
ALLE+161.2%+265.9%-104.7%-6.1 pts15INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR+3.5%+100.6%-97.1%-14.8 pts76INCONCLUSIVE
AME+1150.3%+25325.0%-24174.7%antes de 199374OVERFIT
AMP+644.0%+2154.1%-1510.1%-1.1 pts21OVERFIT
AMT+155.2%+1310.2%-1154.9%-5.7 pts41OVERFIT
ANET+285.6%+5592.8%-5307.2%-2.0 pts27INCONCLUSIVE
AON+445.1%+29815.0%-29369.9%antes de 1993117OVERFIT
AOS+574.1%+13924.9%-13350.8%antes de 1993158MARGINAL
APA-37.8%+2417.2%-2455.0%antes de 199389OVERFIT
APD+1274.4%+20722.2%-19447.8%antes de 199397OVERFIT
APH+12580.0%+146951.6%-134371.6%antes de 199381MARGINAL
APO+326.8%+1845.9%-1519.1%-4.1 pts20INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-19.3%+174.0%-193.2%-16.7 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+13.0%+624.3%-611.2%-9.2 pts50OVERFIT
ARES+36.8%+1191.9%-1155.1%-11.4 pts17INCONCLUSIVE
ATO+107.4%+13696.4%-13589.0%antes de 199374OVERFIT
AVB+29.2%+42.3%-13.2%-12.6 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+1093.6%+8544.4%-7450.8%antes de 1993134OVERFIT
AWK+63.6%+950.9%-887.3%-9.1 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+339.2%+40631.8%-40292.6%antes de 199364OVERFIT
BAC+680.5%+4053.1%-3372.6%antes de 1993129MARGINAL
BALL+154.0%+49568.6%-49414.6%antes de 1993136OVERFIT
BAX+64.1%+1778.4%-1714.3%antes de 199359OVERFIT
BBY+122240.4%+89506.6%+32733.8%antes de 199381MARGINAL
BDX+190.2%+21440.4%-21250.2%antes de 1993117OVERFIT
BEN+2916.9%+130378.8%-127461.9%antes de 1993109MARGINAL
BF-B+737.8%+14873.5%-14135.7%antes de 1993115OVERFIT
BG+277.0%+1105.5%-828.6%-4.1 pts42OVERFIT
BIIB+852.8%+6832.8%-5980.0%antes de 199341OVERFIT
BLDR+420.6%+393.7%+26.9%-3.0 pts24OVERFIT
BLK+830.8%+13724.5%-12893.7%-0.1 pts45MARGINAL
BMY+1687.5%+23662.6%-21975.1%antes de 199393OVERFIT
BNY+1535.2%+32230.3%-30695.1%antes de 1993141OVERFIT
BR+59.3%+1234.2%-1174.9%-8.6 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+213.5%+2072.5%-1859.0%-6.5 pts55OVERFIT
BRO+3474.7%+76212.8%-72738.0%antes de 199385MARGINAL
BSX+2067.2%+1028.2%+1039.0%antes de 199346GENERALIZED
BX+122.6%+1023.3%-900.7%-6.6 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+682.5%+888.9%-206.5%-2.2 pts51OVERFIT
C+2767.6%+1897.9%+869.7%antes de 199387OVERFIT
CAH+2771.7%+39284.8%-36513.1%antes de 199381OVERFIT
CARRno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+3874.5%+80461.2%-76586.8%antes de 199363MARGINAL
CB+128.2%+6587.6%-6459.4%-8.3 pts73OVERFIT
CBOE+467.6%+1060.1%-592.5%-3.3 pts14INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+1440.5%+2283.8%-843.3%+2.2 pts34OVERFIT
CCI+1571.2%+899.9%+671.3%+1.6 pts40OVERFIT
CCL+407.4%+1154.4%-747.0%antes de 199383OVERFIT
CDW+37.0%+858.2%-821.2%-12.1 pts29INCONCLUSIVE
CF+2380.5%+5815.9%-3435.4%+5.5 pts25OVERFIT
CFG+134.8%+349.9%-215.1%-6.4 pts17INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+683.7%+93736.5%-93052.8%antes de 199374OVERFIT
CHRW+402.6%+4307.6%-3905.0%-3.6 pts34OVERFIT
CHTR+314.3%+335.5%-21.3%-5.2 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
CI+1106.5%+12980.8%-11874.3%antes de 199394OVERFIT
CIEN+486.0%+195.6%+290.4%-3.7 pts53MARGINAL
CINF+1777.8%+41545.9%-39768.1%antes de 199381MARGINAL
CL+124.8%+20919.0%-20794.2%antes de 199388OVERFIT
CLX+135.6%+6184.2%-6048.6%antes de 199386OVERFIT
CME+2503.9%+6884.2%-4380.3%+3.4 pts30OVERFIT
CMG+3722.3%+4221.6%-499.3%+8.3 pts35OVERFIT
CMI+7729.8%+28968.2%-21238.5%antes de 1993158OVERFIT
CMS+4135.7%+630.8%+3504.9%antes de 199359OVERFIT
CNC+443.3%+4388.8%-3945.6%-3.0 pts51OVERFIT
CNP+2805.7%+13998.0%-11192.3%antes de 1993102OVERFIT
COF+1241.5%+5724.6%-4483.1%-2.6 pts60MARGINAL
COHR+7382.1%+68288.9%-60906.8%antes de 199373OVERFIT
COINno aplica · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+727.7%+879.8%-152.2%antes de 199368OVERFIT
COP+424.6%+13561.7%-13137.0%antes de 199371OVERFIT
COR+1421.0%+17062.1%-15641.0%-1.9 pts60OVERFIT
CPAY+27.5%+1383.7%-1356.2%-12.7 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+989.8%+2453.9%-1464.1%-3.4 pts61MARGINAL
CRH+604.0%+7617.9%-7013.9%antes de 1993130OVERFIT
CRL-26.4%+1210.2%-1236.6%-9.7 pts53OVERFIT
CSGP+2802.6%+3390.6%-588.0%+3.9 pts40MARGINAL
CTSH+1534.8%+35498.3%-33963.4%+1.5 pts49OVERFIT
CTVAno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+4535.4%+15658.6%-11123.3%antes de 1993115MARGINAL
D+674.7%+17762.4%-17087.7%antes de 199365MARGINAL
DAL+173.6%+339.1%-165.5%-5.5 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
DD+3326.3%+10113.6%-6787.4%antes de 199385OVERFIT
DE+11457.0%+101089.1%-89632.0%antes de 199397MARGINAL
DECK+7361.2%+7024.7%+336.5%+3.2 pts51MARGINAL
DELL+820.7%+4059.8%-3239.0%+9.7 pts15INCONCLUSIVE
DG-9.1%+550.3%-559.3%-14.9 pts21INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+459.4%+9626.0%-9166.5%-4.1 pts47OVERFIT
DHI+1753.1%+13111.0%-11357.9%antes de 199343MARGINAL
DHR+1036.0%+483557.2%-482521.3%antes de 1993109OVERFIT
DLR+583.5%+3540.7%-2957.2%-2.0 pts29OVERFIT
DLTR+267.8%+10731.5%-10463.7%-6.9 pts55OVERFIT
DOC+1050.8%+6136.8%-5086.0%antes de 199349OVERFIT
DOV+4371.8%+29264.8%-24893.1%antes de 199379MARGINAL
DOWno aplica · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+555.8%+5638.6%-5082.7%-2.2 pts36OVERFIT
DRI+372.4%+6998.7%-6626.3%-5.8 pts49MARGINAL
DTE+3928.0%+35264.3%-31336.3%antes de 199381OVERFIT
DUK+1381.1%+16239.0%-14857.9%antes de 199382MARGINAL
DVA+19.6%+4219.3%-4199.7%-10.0 pts70OVERFIT
DVN+65.7%+1411.9%-1346.2%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
EBAY+1535.3%+14035.1%-12499.8%+1.3 pts31OVERFIT
ECHO+449.2%+227.3%+221.9%-1.8 pts25INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+512.6%+20174.1%-19661.5%antes de 1993116OVERFIT
ED+1444.3%+45081.6%-43637.3%antes de 1993116OVERFIT
EFX+8596.3%+77234.4%-68638.1%antes de 199390MARGINAL
EG+305.6%+2975.7%-2670.2%-5.9 pts46OVERFIT
EIX+2182.2%+14610.5%-12428.4%antes de 199366OVERFIT
EL+5.7%+1551.3%-1545.6%-10.3 pts63OVERFIT
ELV-14.1%+2326.9%-2340.9%-10.9 pts45OVERFIT
EME+636.4%+59203.5%-58567.1%-4.7 pts77OVERFIT
EMR+929.2%+19839.1%-18910.0%antes de 199395OVERFIT
EOG+82.0%+9279.7%-9197.7%antes de 199375OVERFIT
EQIX-85.3%+240.5%-325.8%-15.6 pts31OVERFIT
EQR+50.5%+44.2%+6.3%-11.0 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+2334.9%+19557.1%-17222.2%antes de 199393OVERFIT
ERIE+443.8%+3362.8%-2919.0%-5.0 pts46OVERFIT
ES+121.2%+2960.1%-2838.9%antes de 199354OVERFIT
ESS+860.9%+5274.8%-4413.9%-3.8 pts38OVERFIT
ETN+16997.7%+116541.5%-99543.8%antes de 1993126OVERFIT
ETR+2296.1%+19797.9%-17501.8%antes de 199368OVERFIT
EVRG+1712.5%+5086.7%-3374.2%antes de 199373OVERFIT
EW+238.4%+6500.0%-6261.6%-3.5 pts47OVERFIT
EXEno aplica · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+4597.4%+148324.6%-143727.2%antes de 199361OVERFIT
EXPE+247.7%+916.1%-668.5%-5.0 pts41OVERFIT
EXR+167.8%+2698.9%-2531.2%-6.7 pts36OVERFIT
F+1071.9%+6752.4%-5680.6%antes de 1993111OVERFIT
FCX+975.8%+1061.6%-85.9%-2.7 pts55OVERFIT
FDS+752.8%+9088.9%-8336.1%-2.9 pts67OVERFIT
FDX+1433.3%+53776.9%-52343.7%antes de 1993113OVERFIT
FDXFno aplica · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+81.9%+563.0%-481.2%-7.4 pts35OVERFIT
FFIV+1004.1%+5374.0%-4369.9%+0.7 pts45MARGINAL
FICO+2835.5%+94747.8%-91912.3%antes de 1993116OVERFIT
FIS+86.2%+363.8%-277.6%-7.0 pts39OVERFIT
FITB+2913.7%+28280.0%-25366.3%antes de 199372OVERFIT
FIX+3363.3%+11966.2%-8602.9%+3.4 pts57OVERFIT
FLEX+257.1%+7898.6%-7641.5%-6.9 pts53OVERFIT
FOXno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAno aplica · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+501.5%+24360.2%-23858.7%antes de 1993114OVERFIT
FSLR+333.4%+716.1%-382.7%-3.3 pts37OVERFIT
FTV-4.7%+100.1%-104.8%-16.0 pts21INCONCLUSIVE
GD+36633.1%+221689.9%-185056.8%antes de 1993143GENERALIZED
GDDY-20.5%+389.4%-409.9%-16.0 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
GE+27505.2%+54356.2%-26851.0%antes de 199399OVERFIT
GEN+214.4%+12085.6%-11871.1%antes de 199363OVERFIT
GEVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+447.1%+15015.5%-14568.4%antes de 199384OVERFIT
GL+1725.1%+12680.6%-10955.5%antes de 199389OVERFIT
GLW+53293.2%+19301.2%+33992.0%antes de 199393MARGINAL
GM-28.9%+240.1%-269.0%-16.6 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+453.6%+2091.1%-1637.5%-3.7 pts31INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+199.8%+12785.5%-12585.7%antes de 199393OVERFIT
GPN+99.4%+2567.9%-2468.5%-6.3 pts47OVERFIT
GRMN+1586.5%+5377.3%-3790.9%+2.7 pts49OVERFIT
GWW+397.6%+55300.2%-54902.6%antes de 1993183OVERFIT
HAL+229.5%+2860.8%-2631.2%antes de 1993110OVERFIT
HAS+5737.1%+201529.8%-195792.6%antes de 1993105OVERFIT
HBAN+1.6%+3799.5%-3797.9%antes de 199375OVERFIT
HCA+1052.1%+1699.7%-647.6%+3.0 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+458.5%+951.1%-492.6%-4.7 pts43GENERALIZED
HII+407.2%+883.6%-476.4%-3.1 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+139.6%+659.1%-519.5%-7.0 pts15INCONCLUSIVE
HOODno aplica · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+166.7%+625.0%-458.4%-5.4 pts25INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+3043.7%+77945.5%-74901.9%antes de 1993139OVERFIT
HRL+1235.6%+19046.1%-17810.5%antes de 1993122MARGINAL
HSIC+17.9%+1913.1%-1895.2%-10.0 pts43OVERFIT
HST+1624.0%+12843.9%-11219.8%antes de 199386MARGINAL
HSY+4342.5%+53964.6%-49622.0%antes de 199373OVERFIT
HUBB+216.8%+3853.5%-3636.7%-7.4 pts51OVERFIT
HUM+178.6%+20168.9%-19990.3%antes de 199387OVERFIT
HWMno aplica · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+873.1%+1526.1%-653.0%+1.7 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
ICE+1110.7%+2307.9%-1197.1%+1.6 pts26OVERFIT
IEX+614.8%+12761.2%-12146.4%antes de 199381OVERFIT
IFF+76.9%+4754.9%-4678.1%antes de 199393OVERFIT
INCY+11.8%+6471.7%-6459.9%-10.6 pts63OVERFIT
INVHno aplica · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-7.8%+4590.1%-4597.9%antes de 1993133OVERFIT
IQV+142.1%+520.3%-378.2%-7.4 pts21INCONCLUSIVE
IRno aplica · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+1689.9%+9911.6%-8221.7%-0.4 pts63OVERFIT
IT+6096.7%+6431.0%-334.4%+2.5 pts55OVERFIT
ITW+864.1%+51254.1%-50390.0%antes de 1993179OVERFIT
IVZ-28.5%+1093.8%-1122.3%-11.8 pts83OVERFIT
J+571.7%+33544.7%-32973.0%antes de 1993132MARGINAL
JBHT+1459.8%+24926.6%-23466.8%antes de 199361OVERFIT
JBL+1269.0%+41217.7%-39948.7%-2.7 pts65OVERFIT
JCI+1006.5%+4376.5%-3370.0%antes de 199375OVERFIT
JKHY+1143.4%+71288.2%-70144.9%antes de 199361OVERFIT
KEY+53.7%+1405.6%-1351.9%antes de 199365OVERFIT
KEYS+446.7%+1042.3%-595.6%+1.1 pts21INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+1014.8%+3036.5%-2021.7%antes de 199365OVERFIT
KKR+199.4%+1784.9%-1585.5%-7.8 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+1103.2%+16039.9%-14936.7%antes de 199391MARGINAL
KMI+104.3%+117.5%-13.2%-9.2 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
KR+6804.9%+182706.1%-175901.2%antes de 1993122MARGINAL
KVUEno aplica · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+1943.1%+22398.8%-20455.7%antes de 1993119OVERFIT
LDOS+83.8%+530.2%-446.4%-8.0 pts23OVERFIT
LEN+7630.9%+29032.9%-21402.0%antes de 1993104GENERALIZED
LH-24.4%+1408.2%-1432.7%antes de 199361OVERFIT
LHX+293.2%+8519.5%-8226.3%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
LII+626.8%+3122.4%-2495.6%-0.9 pts40MARGINAL
LLY+1958.1%+129720.0%-127761.9%antes de 1993125OVERFIT
LMT+616.6%+67444.7%-66828.1%antes de 1993139OVERFIT
LNT+586.4%+9408.5%-8822.1%antes de 199369OVERFIT
LOW+598.9%+77328.4%-76729.5%antes de 1993124OVERFIT
LULU+1724.9%+759.0%+965.9%+5.3 pts34INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+1578.3%+24508.5%-22930.2%antes de 199390OVERFIT
LVS+467.0%+50.3%+416.7%-2.6 pts34OVERFIT
LYB+267.9%+648.8%-380.9%-5.7 pts25INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+151.0%+1558.0%-1407.0%-6.6 pts36OVERFIT
MA+982.2%+14066.9%-13084.7%+1.2 pts25OVERFIT
MAA+150.1%+3525.2%-3375.1%-8.0 pts58OVERFIT
MAS+481.8%+7423.1%-6941.3%antes de 199395OVERFIT
MCK+2652.4%+6946.5%-4294.1%-0.1 pts54OVERFIT
MCO+1534.9%+7753.9%-6219.1%-1.9 pts49OVERFIT
MDT+1452.2%+51421.0%-49968.8%antes de 1993119OVERFIT
MET+82.8%+1176.9%-1094.1%-6.0 pts37OVERFIT
MGM+168.9%+1501.4%-1332.5%antes de 199395OVERFIT
MKC+7.8%+14401.8%-14394.1%antes de 1993124OVERFIT
MLM+2103.2%+3089.6%-986.3%-0.9 pts48MARGINAL
MO+39336.7%+2914781.4%-2875444.7%antes de 1993142MARGINAL
MOS-16.7%+268.9%-285.7%antes de 199392OVERFIT
MPC+496.4%+2972.8%-2476.3%-2.1 pts27INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAno aplica · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+783.2%+21192.9%-20409.6%antes de 1993115MARGINAL
MS+1085.4%+6159.1%-5073.7%-3.2 pts63OVERFIT
MSCI+437.4%+2406.7%-1969.3%-1.9 pts31INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+1969.3%+79243.2%-77273.9%antes de 1993154OVERFIT
MTB+18813.1%+105049.8%-86236.7%antes de 1993114MARGINAL
MTD+426.2%+9346.3%-8920.1%-3.5 pts43OVERFIT
NCLH-66.2%-34.9%-31.3%-22.4 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+639.9%+2371.2%-1731.3%-2.3 pts37OVERFIT
NDSN+6345.0%+37769.3%-31424.3%antes de 199353MARGINAL
NEE+1128.3%+23772.9%-22644.6%antes de 1993100OVERFIT
NEM+532.7%+2099.8%-1567.1%antes de 1993119OVERFIT
NI+27.7%+5234.9%-5207.2%antes de 199386OVERFIT
NOC+1414.7%+23369.3%-21954.6%antes de 1993110OVERFIT
NOW+322.8%+2907.9%-2585.1%-4.2 pts19INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+1337.2%+1442.6%-105.3%+1.4 pts38MARGINAL
NSC+1532.6%+24520.7%-22988.0%antes de 199369OVERFIT
NTAP+453.1%+19659.8%-19206.6%-4.8 pts47OVERFIT
NTRS+1727.6%+53074.8%-51347.2%antes de 199385OVERFIT
NUE+1743.9%+70209.1%-68465.2%antes de 1993122OVERFIT
NVR+2634.3%+61512.0%-58877.7%-0.3 pts56MARGINAL
NWS+195.0%+152.4%+42.6%-5.8 pts14INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+105.5%+122.2%-16.7%-8.8 pts16INCONCLUSIVE
O+177.7%+5366.4%-5188.7%-7.8 pts40MARGINAL
OKE+1541.6%+19101.6%-17560.0%antes de 199378OVERFIT
OMC+1243.2%+15677.5%-14434.3%antes de 199393OVERFIT
ON+157.5%+208.7%-51.2%-4.8 pts39OVERFIT
ORCL+6867.5%+296729.4%-289861.9%antes de 199374OVERFIT
OTISno aplica · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+345.7%+3580.0%-3234.3%antes de 199371OVERFIT
PCG+2247.1%+1389.7%+857.4%antes de 199363OVERFIT
PEG+489.2%+18884.4%-18395.2%antes de 199356MARGINAL
PFE+9382.6%+20062.7%-10680.1%antes de 199372OVERFIT
PFG+250.3%+920.1%-669.8%-5.0 pts37OVERFIT
PGR+6524.5%+819581.9%-813057.5%antes de 1993132MARGINAL
PH+5668.9%+41129.4%-35460.5%antes de 199398MARGINAL
PHM+6157.2%+95847.7%-89690.5%antes de 1993105MARGINAL
PLD-26.7%+1782.5%-1809.3%-10.4 pts41OVERFIT
PM+192.3%+785.7%-593.4%-6.2 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+7005.4%+37937.9%-30932.5%antes de 199395OVERFIT
PNR+365.5%+11510.8%-11145.4%antes de 1993116OVERFIT
PNW+214.1%+2247.6%-2033.4%antes de 199384OVERFIT
PODD+89.8%+831.5%-741.6%-7.4 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+941.3%+21327.4%-20386.2%antes de 199382OVERFIT
PPL+1236.0%+7311.8%-6075.8%antes de 199373OVERFIT
PRU+185.4%+767.8%-582.4%-5.7 pts34MARGINAL
PSA+724.9%+13958.7%-13233.8%antes de 199363OVERFIT
PSKY+1219.3%-34.8%+1254.1%+2.2 pts17OVERFIT
PSX+323.6%+1071.7%-748.1%-4.0 pts27INCONCLUSIVE
PTC+486.4%+8443.5%-7957.0%antes de 199342MARGINAL
PWR+2224.1%+8155.1%-5931.0%+2.5 pts53OVERFIT
Qno aplica · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+17972.9%+4611.6%+13361.3%+6.0 pts55GENERALIZED
REG+213.2%+2046.5%-1833.3%-7.3 pts64OVERFIT
RF+347.7%+7230.0%-6882.3%antes de 199377OVERFIT
RJF+1873.2%+52691.1%-50817.8%antes de 1993113MARGINAL
RL+373.7%+1376.9%-1003.2%-4.0 pts41OVERFIT
RMD+1323.4%+43254.4%-41930.9%-1.9 pts73OVERFIT
ROK+1738.2%+57325.7%-55587.5%antes de 199369OVERFIT
ROL+1691.7%+36503.9%-34812.2%antes de 199390OVERFIT
RSG+108.6%+1977.7%-1869.1%-6.2 pts38OVERFIT
RTX+7286.5%+231131.9%-223845.3%antes de 1993115OVERFIT
RVTY+457.2%+25547.2%-25090.0%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
SBAC+1721.0%+2259.6%-538.6%+2.8 pts27MARGINAL
SCHW+814.8%+45501.9%-44687.0%antes de 199387OVERFIT
SJM+112.7%+1119.0%-1006.3%-8.7 pts57OVERFIT
SLB+503.8%+1125.4%-621.6%antes de 199355OVERFIT
SMCI+646.6%+4155.7%-3509.1%-0.2 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+345.1%+12522.0%-12176.9%antes de 1993116OVERFIT
SO+912.9%+32617.4%-31704.5%antes de 199344OVERFIT
SOLVno aplica · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+3313.6%+5330.6%-2017.0%+0.5 pts41OVERFIT
SPGI+13502.1%+140503.3%-127001.2%antes de 1993101OVERFIT
SRE+118.0%+1463.0%-1344.9%-6.0 pts37OVERFIT
STE+44.5%+15491.4%-15446.9%antes de 199361OVERFIT
STLD+766.5%+7831.8%-7065.3%-2.5 pts40MARGINAL
STT+3577.0%+199686.1%-196109.1%antes de 1993129OVERFIT
STZ+477.9%+10007.0%-9529.1%antes de 199355MARGINAL
SW+58.0%+775.0%-717.0%-9.5 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+30.9%+5887.9%-5857.1%antes de 199396OVERFIT
SWKS+303.1%+1317.3%-1014.2%antes de 199385OVERFIT
SYF+121.2%+325.2%-204.0%-7.2 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+2827.7%+430371.4%-427543.7%antes de 1993100OVERFIT
SYY+631.8%+115885.9%-115254.1%antes de 1993148MARGINAL
T+1063.9%+10219.8%-9155.9%antes de 199368OVERFIT
TAP+61.5%+518.8%-457.2%antes de 1993108OVERFIT
TDG+1069.4%+13285.3%-12215.9%+1.7 pts30OVERFIT
TDY+575.7%+7164.6%-6588.9%-1.0 pts28OVERFIT
TECH+1600.0%+79246.8%-77646.7%antes de 199335OVERFIT
TEL+108.2%+671.1%-562.8%-6.9 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+310.2%+10226.4%-9916.2%antes de 199361OVERFIT
TGT+1638.2%+90566.5%-88928.3%antes de 1993131OVERFIT
TJX+2236.0%+36154.4%-33918.4%antes de 199352MARGINAL
TKO+1234.3%+1638.9%-404.5%+1.3 pts36OVERFIT
TMO+1983.6%+36784.3%-34800.7%antes de 199399GENERALIZED
TPL+26773.9%+75277.1%-48503.2%antes de 1993181OVERFIT
TPR+1194.6%+7766.6%-6572.0%+1.8 pts42OVERFIT
TRGP+2165.0%+2202.9%-37.9%+7.6 pts19INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+70.6%+3366.4%-3295.8%antes de 199358OVERFIT
TROW+2668.3%+35932.6%-33264.4%antes de 199370MARGINAL
TSCO+3857.2%+15199.0%-11341.8%+1.1 pts44OVERFIT
TSN+881.5%+4340.8%-3459.3%antes de 199394OVERFIT
TT+11552.3%+49748.2%-38195.8%antes de 199399OVERFIT
TTDno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+3026.3%+4901.2%-1874.9%antes de 1993122OVERFIT
TYL+2540.4%+43359.1%-40818.7%antes de 199384OVERFIT
UAL+54.0%+240.6%-186.7%-9.0 pts40OVERFIT
UBERno aplica · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+3723.4%+14119.5%-10396.1%antes de 199342MARGINAL
UHS+5836.0%+15293.2%-9457.2%antes de 199399OVERFIT
ULTA+1137.7%+1721.3%-583.6%+3.3 pts33INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+2045.3%+30311.4%-28266.1%antes de 199385MARGINAL
UPS+63.3%+233.2%-169.9%-6.7 pts39OVERFIT
URI+1073.2%+7088.3%-6015.1%-0.4 pts59OVERFIT
USB+1410.2%+44799.0%-43388.8%antes de 199385OVERFIT
VEEV+135.5%+668.8%-533.4%-7.3 pts21INCONCLUSIVE
VICIno aplica · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+12110.8%+23394.0%-11283.2%antes de 199397MARGINAL
VLTOno aplica · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+1029.7%+48759.3%-47729.7%antes de 1993184OVERFIT
VRSK+13.0%+648.8%-635.8%-13.7 pts28INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+2532.4%+5322.0%-2789.6%+2.8 pts34MARGINAL
VRTno aplica · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTno aplica · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+152.4%+1496.8%-1344.4%-6.5 pts51OVERFIT
VTRS-45.8%+1568.8%-1614.6%antes de 199399OVERFIT
VZ+882.6%+4889.1%-4006.6%antes de 199353OVERFIT
WAB+470.8%+4137.7%-3666.9%-5.0 pts57OVERFIT
WAT+79.6%+10865.4%-10785.8%-8.6 pts65OVERFIT
WEC+1658.2%+23656.8%-21998.6%antes de 199360MARGINAL
WELL+1969.9%+58774.1%-56804.2%antes de 199370OVERFIT
WFC+1158.0%+63452.2%-62294.2%antes de 1993104OVERFIT
WM+1621.4%+8471.2%-6849.8%antes de 199355MARGINAL
WMB+5450.6%+11974.1%-6523.6%antes de 199374OVERFIT
WSM+20005.3%+69865.8%-49860.5%antes de 199389MARGINAL
WST+3541.4%+79208.6%-75667.2%antes de 1993165MARGINAL
WTW+104.6%+1181.6%-1077.0%-6.5 pts31OVERFIT
WY+425.9%+1781.4%-1355.5%antes de 199384OVERFIT
WYNN+1184.6%+1217.6%-33.0%-0.1 pts29OVERFIT
XOM+10340.5%+183657.9%-173317.4%antes de 1993107OVERFIT
XYL+170.6%+455.0%-284.4%-8.3 pts22INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ-23.8%+527.5%-551.3%-17.2 pts23INCONCLUSIVE
YUM+84.1%+4282.5%-4198.4%-7.2 pts39OVERFIT
ZBH+15.6%+292.2%-276.6%-9.1 pts42OVERFIT
ZBRA+662.9%+8617.7%-7954.8%antes de 199369MARGINAL
ZTS+25.2%+179.3%-154.1%-13.0 pts20INCONCLUSIVE

Divisas · 7 / 8 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 0 / 8

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
EUR/USD+12.6%-3.1%+15.8%-10.5 pts13INCONCLUSIVE
GBP/USD-8.2%-21.2%+13.1%-11.4 pts15OVERFIT
USD/JPY+45.6%+40.2%+5.4%-8.9 pts20OVERFIT
USD/MXN+55.2%+49.9%+5.3%-9.1 pts3INCONCLUSIVE
AUD/USD+36.1%-6.6%+42.8%-9.7 pts9INCONCLUSIVE
USD/CAD+46.7%+1.7%+45.0%-9.5 pts5INCONCLUSIVE
USD/CHF-7.2%-41.4%+34.2%-11.5 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
NZD/USD-25.9%-8.1%-17.8%-12.3 pts29OVERFIT

Cripto · 0 / 2 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 1 / 2

ActivoRendimientoComprar y mantenerDiferenciaVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/año)Oper.Fuera de muestra
Bitcoin+5172.8%+17075.3%-11902.5%+11.9 pts43INCONCLUSIVE
Etherno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+702.3%+859.3%-157.1%-1.0 pts37INCONCLUSIVE
Solanano aplica · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanono aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinno aplica · history < 10y (8.8y)

¿Y en intradía?

Velas de 5 minutos a 4 horas, cada activo desde donde existe historia intradía (acciones 2016, divisas 2003, cripto 2015), contra mantener ese mismo activo. Diferencia frente a comprar y mantener. Sin walk-forward (ver protocolo).

Activo5 min15 min1 hora4 horasDiario
Litecoin-1348.2%-1318.9%-1208.9%+830.1%-157.1%
Solanano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Cardanono aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
Dogecoinno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
EUR/USD-47.4%-19.0%+27.2%-17.6%+15.8%
GBP/USD-48.6%-19.4%+33.8%-2.3%+13.1%
USD/JPY-89.6%-16.4%-63.9%+23.3%+5.4%
AUD/USD+42.8%
USD/CAD-106.0%-68.5%-9.4%-9.4%+45.0%
USD/CHF-66.0%-46.4%+14.3%+18.2%+34.2%
NZD/USD-69.4%-40.7%+6.1%+1.2%-17.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)-420.5%-325.1%-211.6%-325.8%-2490.1%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-658.4%-608.8%-475.6%-483.0%-1561.2%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-292.2%-203.6%-73.0%-205.4%-384.7%
Emergentes (EEM)-232.8%-213.5%-131.5%-174.5%-724.7%
Oro (GLD)-374.6%-320.6%-211.9%-183.5%-262.2%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-85.5%-69.2%-24.3%+7.0%-68.8%
AAPL-1254.0%-1114.9%-950.0%-952.3%-217489.0%
AMGN-356.4%-307.6%-136.6%-253.8%-170369.9%
AMZN-781.2%-647.3%-700.2%-265.4%-111480.7%
AXP-537.3%-424.9%-384.2%-489.5%-27007.3%
BA-118.5%-52.7%+352.1%-16.8%-104894.1%
CAT-1374.4%-918.8%-1073.4%-1122.7%-152477.3%
CRM-315.8%-250.4%-170.6%-155.3%-5243.8%
CSCO-542.9%-451.4%-405.6%-439.1%-185615.3%
CVX-336.8%-248.4%-173.7%-62.6%-67596.9%
DIS-94.0%-66.3%-11.1%-11.1%-118457.2%
GOOGL-853.6%-697.4%-756.9%-572.3%-12038.6%
GS-653.4%-598.1%-239.2%-481.3%-1743.2%
HD-279.1%-273.7%-155.6%-126.6%-1984001.9%
HON-268.0%-173.4%-83.3%-168.5%-21007.8%
IBM-260.6%-69.9%-82.2%-218.4%-15708.4%
JNJ-326.3%-287.4%-196.6%-221.8%-438536.1%
JPM-724.2%-590.4%-468.6%-503.9%-34330.1%
KO-273.8%-219.8%-169.4%-172.2%-187579.6%
MCD-253.8%-185.5%-166.7%-153.7%-216072.9%
MMM-178.4%-152.2%-82.1%-89.6%-28732.5%
MRK-397.1%-347.8%-250.5%-241.8%-224610.0%
MSFT-1042.3%-937.2%-797.2%-705.9%-853641.2%
NKE-44.6%-48.9%-6.2%-20.6%-29062.5%
NVDA-26411.3%-26316.5%-25604.2%-23341.6%-529765.7%
PG-227.6%-185.1%-158.7%-152.0%-58538.5%
SHW-422.2%-411.0%-338.3%-280.1%-228313.3%
TRV-396.3%-376.4%-289.1%-302.2%-11932.9%
UNH-355.8%-323.4%-170.3%-270.3%-340332.4%
V-530.1%-488.4%-383.2%-405.3%-2730.7%
WMT-583.0%-473.7%-382.3%-361.7%-884316.4%
ABNBno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ADBE-285.6%-263.2%-136.2%-121.6%-145975.3%
ADI-775.8%-743.0%-502.6%-587.8%-80410.7%
ADP-427.5%-388.5%-260.3%-131.4%-72057.5%
ADSK-417.3%-374.2%-349.7%-230.5%-57318.3%
AEP-294.1%-247.9%-158.3%-133.1%-12554.5%
ALABno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ALNY-199.2%-96.5%+116.2%-120.3%-3210.8%
AMAT-2716.9%-2699.0%-2548.1%-2174.4%-649362.5%
AMD-15921.4%-15370.4%-15416.4%-11944.4%-11054.3%
APPno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ARMno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
ASML-2134.0%-1857.6%-1740.7%-1383.8%-80464.3%
AVGO-3315.0%-2986.3%-3086.7%-2985.8%-29389.3%
AXON-3451.6%-1969.2%-3033.5%-3009.9%+164245.4%
BKNG-398.7%-282.5%-353.0%-348.7%+3361.7%
BKRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-944.9%
CCEP-402.2%-388.3%-335.6%-324.5%-6811.9%
CDNS-1601.9%-1383.8%-1355.9%-1392.4%-15516.8%
CEGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CMCSA-131.7%-112.4%-60.3%-23.7%-46559.0%
COST-668.8%-571.4%-406.7%-272.9%-11971.4%
CPRT-651.8%-563.6%-368.2%-447.1%-16931.9%
CRWDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
CSX-681.4%-643.5%-504.5%-470.9%-39205.2%
CTAS-1018.8%-745.8%-638.3%-701.2%-120240.8%
DASHno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DDOGno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
DXCM-367.3%-50.4%-295.1%-213.3%-2549.3%
EAno aplica
EXC-294.3%-237.2%-174.2%-165.7%-16295.8%
FANG-328.3%-262.6%-109.8%-209.7%-1168.9%
FAST-642.6%-582.7%-520.1%-541.9%-261358.8%
FERno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-598.3%
FTNT-2716.6%-2691.7%-2457.2%-2438.6%-7937.0%
GEHCno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
GILD-205.3%-161.8%-109.0%-69.2%-26076.0%
HONAno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
IDXX-767.8%-737.5%-570.3%-585.9%-53712.4%
INTC-291.6%-221.5%+297.2%-204.4%-44394.3%
INTU-339.7%-376.9%-228.1%-246.5%-14953.9%
ISRG-564.6%-540.0%-369.2%-316.1%-14590.9%
KHC-52.4%-30.4%+29.7%-19.3%+5.0%
KLAC-3007.9%-2837.5%-2607.4%-2816.4%-287573.8%
LINno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-10116.6%
LITE-3857.2%-3549.0%-3642.1%-3482.4%-3456.4%
LRCX-4290.8%-4177.9%-3923.1%-4131.9%-158089.8%
MAR-571.9%-522.8%-404.9%-434.8%-1699.0%
MCHP-369.9%-323.4%-281.4%-289.7%-41807.3%
MDLZ-151.6%-111.5%-83.6%-91.2%-335.7%
MELI-1771.7%-1365.7%-1379.2%-1657.4%-6352.8%
META-464.1%-446.5%-250.7%-337.3%-752.4%
MNST-178.1%-158.8%+11.0%+81.6%-50108.9%
MPWR-2206.8%-1938.8%-2021.2%-2147.8%-14760.3%
MRVL-2565.8%-2572.5%-2218.8%-1519.2%-631.2%
MSTR-641.2%+144.3%+1078.8%-612.6%+734.0%
MU-6297.8%-6539.6%-4149.5%-5379.4%+36948.5%
NFLX-705.1%-413.1%-413.3%-471.0%-12775.8%
NXPI-285.8%-266.9%-262.1%-218.3%-1726.2%
ODFL-1036.6%-910.6%-729.8%-580.0%-36296.7%
ORLY-534.2%-450.9%-217.7%-469.7%-54549.7%
PANW-1281.8%-1117.5%-997.5%-619.4%-3060.3%
PCAR-564.0%-513.8%-441.3%-459.8%-41413.8%
PDDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PEP-182.4%-165.1%-104.6%-84.8%-35633.7%
PLTRno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
PYPL-142.9%-118.3%-87.0%+59.7%+161.4%
QCOM-417.8%-370.8%-265.6%-354.2%-48070.0%
REGN-148.9%-105.9%-44.5%-52.6%-3442.1%
ROP-241.0%-208.5%-55.0%-140.7%-22342.3%
ROST-442.6%-406.9%-336.4%-226.7%-48359.4%
SBUX-221.1%-193.7%-128.6%-39.6%-27955.2%
SHOP-5775.3%-5256.4%-4003.9%-5432.3%-7869.2%
SNDKno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica
SNPS-963.4%-798.7%-805.7%-844.2%-5550.7%
STX-3550.8%-3334.1%-2856.0%-2115.5%+3625.5%
TER-1722.0%-1378.0%-1225.5%-1423.9%-30812.2%
TMUS-481.1%-440.4%-383.2%-341.5%-269.9%
TRI-344.4%-304.4%-157.5%-237.8%-446.6%
TSLA-728.0%+395.2%+1381.0%-416.0%-21707.2%
TTWO-684.2%-653.5%-648.3%-193.8%-5512.6%
TXN-613.6%-562.1%-395.0%-479.2%-37528.8%
VRTX-436.0%-327.4%-281.1%-278.2%-11347.0%
WBDno aplicano aplicano aplicano aplica-224.3%
WDAY-253.7%-239.1%-216.3%-24.2%-210.6%
WDC-958.9%-985.6%-346.6%-405.5%-55733.6%
XEL-278.2%-235.8%-117.5%-164.8%-6901.4%
KDP-260.8%-237.5%-157.8%-124.5%-678.9%
USD/MXN-124.0%-62.1%-74.5%-56.5%+5.3%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-17750.7%-12220.9%-3912.2%-11902.5%
Etherno aplica

20 / 472 · contra el s&p 500 en la misma ventana: 33 / 472

¿Y si cambio un poco los parámetros? (sobre el índice)

ParámetrosRendimientoSharpeCaída máx.Vs. índice
atr_len 10590.9%0.25-18.0%-2490.1%
atr_len 748.4%-0.67-14.9%-3032.7%
atr_len 14327.2%0.08-32.4%-2753.8%
atr_len 21441.1%0.15-25.3%-2639.9%

Una regla que solo funciona con los números exactos del libro y muere un paso más allá no es una ventaja: es suerte.

Fuera de muestra y robustez (sobre el índice)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Sharpe deflactado: 0.41 (< 0.95)

Suite de robustez: MODERATE

Por mitades: Primera mitad no batió (+131.4% vs +237.3%); Segunda mitad no batió (+198.6% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.6243.

Deflated Sharpe 0.4093 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Recibo

Calculado el 2026-09-10 · periodo: cada activo desde su primera vela (1962-01-01 a 2026-08-31) · costos por ida y vuelta: acciones e índice 10 pb, divisas 2 pb, cripto 30 pb · artefacto e097c9613211 · motor de Finaxion

Por mercado

Las páginas de cada mercado, ordenadas por exceso anual sobre el S&P 500. Mostramos los primeros 12; el resto está en el sitemap. Ver los 45 mercados

Fuentes de la afirmación

Cómo citar

Finaxion Research (2026). Supertrend: la línea que cambia de color: funciona en pocos mercados. Backtest diario 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artefacto e097c9613211. https://finaxion.app/research/supertrend

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