FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on PYPL?

Only invest above the 200-day average beats buy-and-hold on PYPL by +1.4 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
68.3%
Buy and hold
44.7%
CAGR
4.8%
Sharpe
0.15
Max drawdown
-57.2%
Trades
83
Out of sample
—
Years
11
0.9×1×4.5×8.1×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyPYPL

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average beats buy-and-hold on PYPL by +1.4 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +68.3% versus +44.7% for buy-and-hold, with 83 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -57.2%.
  5. It did not beat before 2021 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #198 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PYPL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PYPL → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on PYPL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/pypl

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.