FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on MELI?

ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on MELI: -10.2 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
×14
Buy and hold
×70
CAGR
14.8%
Sharpe
0.45
Max drawdown
-51.2%
Trades
575
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyMELI

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on MELI: -10.2 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +3.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×14 versus ×70 for buy-and-hold, with 575 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -51.2%.
  5. It beat before 2017 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #12 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MELI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MELI → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on MELI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/meli

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.