Finaxion Research · MELI

Which strategy works on MELI?

On MELI, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.

Findings

On MELI, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is "Sell in May and go away": -5.8 points a year over buying and holding MELI. The worst is Upper Bollinger band breakout: -26.7 points a year against buy-and-hold.

On MELI, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
The best is “Sell in May and go away”: -5.8 points a year over buying and holding MELI.
The worst is Upper Bollinger band breakout: -26.7 points a year against buy-and-hold.

The 20 strategies, one by one

Strategy	Return	Buy and hold	Excess (pts/yr)	Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr)	Out of sample	Trades
“Sell in May and go away”	×28	×70	-5.8%	+8.0%	—	38
Ichimoku: buy above the cloud	×19	×70	-8.3%	+5.6%	—	197
Only invest above the 200-day average	×16	×70	-9.2%	+4.6%	—	131
ADX: trade only in strong trends	×14	×70	-10.2%	+3.6%	—	575
The golden cross (50/200)	789.4%	×70	-12.8%	+1.0%	—	24
Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3)	616.2%	×70	-14.1%	-0.3%	—	276
Supertrend: the line that changes colour	558.2%	×70	-14.6%	-0.8%	—	24
Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)	533.8%	×70	-14.8%	-1.0%	—	663
The MACD cross (12/26/9)	425.8%	×70	-15.9%	-2.0%	—	381
RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)	409.8%	×70	-16.0%	-2.2%	—	38
2-day RSI (the Connors rule)	349.0%	×70	-16.8%	-2.9%	—	440
Wyckoff: buying the accumulation	164.8%	×70	-19.7%	-5.9%	—	136
The Turtles: 55-day breakout	92.3%	×70	-21.5%	-7.7%	—	85
Parabolic SAR: follow the dots	61.5%	×70	-22.4%	-8.6%	—	429
Bounce off the lower Bollinger band	53.1%	×70	-22.7%	-8.9%	—	148
ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap	44.3%	×70	-23.0%	-9.2%	—	144
Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles	34.9%	×70	-23.4%	-9.6%	—	1273
ICT / Smart Money: the order block	1.4%	×70	-24.9%	-11.1%	—	4
Smart Money: the liquidity sweep	-15.4%	×70	-25.9%	-12.0%	—	64
Upper Bollinger band breakout	-27.7%	×70	-26.7%	-12.8%	—	318

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