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Finaxion Research · Bounce off the lower Bollinger band · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on MELI?

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on MELI: -22.7 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
53.1%
Buy and hold
×70
CAGR
2.3%
Sharpe
0.08
Max drawdown
-80.1%
Trades
148
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyMELI

Findings

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on MELI: -22.7 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +53.1% versus ×70 for buy-and-hold, with 148 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -80.1%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #122 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MELI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MELI → · Full page for Bounce off the lower Bollinger band →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on MELI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce/meli

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.