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Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on NZD/USD?

ADX: trade only in strong trends beats buy-and-hold on NZD/USD by +0.9 points a year over 23 years.

Total return
13.9%
Buy and hold
-8.1%
CAGR
0.6%
Sharpe
-0.37
Max drawdown
-29.0%
Trades
756
Out of sample
overfit
Years
23
0.8×1×1.2×200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyNZD/USD

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends beats buy-and-hold on NZD/USD by +0.9 points a year over 23 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +13.9% versus -8.1% for buy-and-hold, with 756 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -29.0%.
  6. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2015).
  7. It ranks #139 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NZD/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NZD/USD → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on NZD/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/nzdusd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.