On NZD/USD, 9 of 17 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
On NZD/USD, 9 of 17 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70): +1.8 points a year over buying and holding NZD/USD. The worst is Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles: -1.4 points a year against buy-and-hold.
| Strategy | Return | Buy and hold | Excess (pts/yr) | Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr) | Out of sample | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) | 38.7% | -8.1% | +1.8% | -9.6% | overfit | 45 |
| “Sell in May and go away” | 26.1% | -8.1% | +1.4% | -10.0% | — | 45 |
| ADX: trade only in strong trends | 13.9% | -8.1% | +0.9% | -10.5% | overfit | 756 |
| Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) | 6.8% | -8.1% | +0.7% | -10.7% | overfit | 853 |
| ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap | 1.7% | -8.1% | +0.4% | -11.0% | overfit | 188 |
| Parabolic SAR: follow the dots | -2.0% | -8.1% | +0.3% | -11.1% | overfit | 527 |
| Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) | -5.3% | -8.1% | +0.1% | -11.3% | overfit | 338 |
| Upper Bollinger band breakout | -6.3% | -8.1% | +0.1% | -11.3% | overfit | 346 |
| 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) | -7.5% | -8.1% | +0.0% | -11.4% | overfit | 568 |
| The golden cross (50/200) | -9.9% | -8.1% | -0.1% | -11.5% | overfit | 40 |
| Ichimoku: buy above the cloud | -9.9% | -8.1% | -0.1% | -11.5% | overfit | 297 |
| Bounce off the lower Bollinger band | -10.2% | -8.1% | -0.1% | -11.5% | overfit | 196 |
| The MACD cross (12/26/9) | -11.4% | -8.1% | -0.2% | -11.6% | overfit | 471 |
| Only invest above the 200-day average | -25.0% | -8.1% | -0.9% | -12.3% | overfit | 229 |
| Supertrend: the line that changes colour | -25.9% | -8.1% | -0.9% | -12.3% | overfit | 29 |
| The Turtles: 55-day breakout | -30.4% | -8.1% | -1.2% | -12.6% | overfit | 74 |
| Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles | -33.7% | -8.1% | -1.4% | -12.8% | overfit | 1618 |
Finaxion is an analysis tool, not an investment adviser. This page is not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prices and series: market data. Computations: Finaxion engine.