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Finaxion Research · RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) work on NZD/USD?

RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) beats buy-and-hold on NZD/USD by +1.8 points a year over 23 years.

Total return
38.7%
Buy and hold
-8.1%
CAGR
1.5%
Sharpe
-0.24
Max drawdown
-32.9%
Trades
45
Out of sample
overfit
Years
23
0.8×1×1.1×200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyNZD/USD

Findings

  1. RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) beats buy-and-hold on NZD/USD by +1.8 points a year over 23 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +38.7% versus -8.1% for buy-and-hold, with 45 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -32.9%.
  6. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2015).
  7. It ranks #178 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 4941ce415f47.

Exactly what was tested

RSI(14) crosses below 30 → entry. RSI(14) crosses above 70 → exit. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NZD/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NZD/USD → · Full page for RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) work on NZD/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 4941ce415f47. https://finaxion.app/en/research/rsi-14-oversold/nzdusd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.