FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Bounce off the lower Bollinger band · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on PYPL?

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on PYPL: -3.8 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
-4.7%
Buy and hold
44.7%
CAGR
-0.4%
Sharpe
-0.07
Max drawdown
-60.8%
Trades
100
Out of sample
—
Years
11
0.8×1×4.4×8.1×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyPYPL

Findings

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on PYPL: -3.8 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -14.8 points a year.
  3. Total return -4.7% versus +44.7% for buy-and-hold, with 100 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -60.8%.
  5. It did not beat before 2021 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #219 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PYPL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PYPL → · Full page for Bounce off the lower Bollinger band →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on PYPL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce/pypl

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.