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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on TSLA?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on TSLA: -5.3 points a year over 16 years.

Total return
×123
Buy and hold
×231
CAGR
34.8%
Sharpe
0.83
Max drawdown
-52.0%
Trades
317
Out of sample
—
Years
16
1×10×100×20112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyTSLA

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on TSLA: -5.3 points a year over 16 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +19.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×123 versus ×231 for buy-and-hold, with 317 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -52.0%.
  5. It did not beat before 2018 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #2 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TSLA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TSLA → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on TSLA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/tsla

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.