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Finaxion Research · Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on PYPL?

Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) does not beat buy-and-hold on PYPL: -9.4 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
-50.3%
Buy and hold
44.7%
CAGR
-6.1%
Sharpe
-0.25
Max drawdown
-85.9%
Trades
382
Out of sample
—
Years
11
1×8×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyPYPL

Findings

  1. Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) does not beat buy-and-hold on PYPL: -9.4 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -20.4 points a year.
  3. Total return -50.3% versus +44.7% for buy-and-hold, with 382 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -85.9%.
  5. It did not beat before 2021 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #231 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 6540eaf5c46b.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses above KAMA(10, 2, 30) → entry; close crosses below → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PYPL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PYPL → · Full page for Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) work on PYPL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 6540eaf5c46b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/kama-adaptive-average/pypl

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.